11thAfrican Mohamed Zayed
Transcript of 11thAfrican Mohamed Zayed
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11th African Oil & Gas Conference & Exhibition
New Frontiers of Exploration Activity
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Optimum Application of Geosciencesin the Search for Hydrocarbon in Frontier Basins,Examples from Sudan
PLAY
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
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Basement Rocks
Cretaceous & Older Sequences
Tertiary & Older sequences
Basin Boundary
Simplified Geological Map
of Sudan
Muglad
Basin
http://www.maisonradical.ca/Nouveau_Dossier/pure_emu_oil_2.htmhttp://www.maisonradical.ca/Nouveau_Dossier/pure_emu_oil_2.htm -
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New Frontiers of Exploration Activity
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OpportunitiesWhy has there been so much interest in onshore Sudan?
Success & profitability
High success rates(69%)
Low Exploration Unit Finding Cost($0.90/b)
Improved infrastructureMore than 300-kilometer long pipelines from Heglig,
Palogue & Fula to Bashyer Marine Terminal in the RedSea.
Three refineries of 130,000 b/d capacity (to beexpanded to 200k b/d)
Contractual arrangementsCost recovery & profit sharing basis (PSC)
Encouraging tax & custom exemption
Sudan is providing areas with exciting opportunities forexploration companies of all sizes.
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Engagement of small indigenous companies with smallercapital allows them to partake in oil profits and minimize
capital flight
Localization of projects that facilitated knowledge andtechnology transfer, which were & remain crucial for betterharnessing of local workforce and resources
Nationalization program is focusing on improving thetechnical capability and competence levels of the localworkforce (80% of two major op. co. nationalized within 5yrs.)
For the industry to be beneficial to the Sudanese people, theGovernment formulated policies to ensure localization of allpetroleum projects ..
Developing local content
Developing people for better resource management
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PETROLEUM RESOURCE
ASSESSMENT IN FRONTIER BASINS
DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVENESS OF FANCY ECONOMIC
AND ENGINEERING ANALYSES, THE BIGGEST FACTOR INTHE POSSIBLE PAYOFF OF A PROSPECT OR A PLAY IS THE
GEOLOGICAL, JUDGMENTAL ESTIMATION OFHYDROCARBON VOLUME AND RISK
-- David A. White (1993)
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Explorationists are not concerned about whether hydrocarbonsare present or not in the prospect, rather they want to know the
chance of findinga sufficient quantities of petroleum to warrantcompletion of the drilled well. They also think of if a well iscompleted, how much profit will it generate?
Risk and Volumetric
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To quantify the unknown (uncertainty)
Why Do Risk Analysis?:
Prerequisites of Risk Analysis:
To forecast or predict events yet to come
To compare alternative investments
Before one goes into risk analysis, it is important to assesspotential outcomes and their values.
Define investment opportunities (outcomes)
Seek expert opinion
Knowledge of principles of probability and statistics
Historical data or analogy
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EconomicAnalysis
(Cash flowModel & Value
Matrix, NPV, EV;Fiscal terms,Tax)
DECISION
Mean ResourceVolume
(=EV= Revenue)
EngineeringFacility cost,
Production profile,Recover Factor Risk &
SensitivityAnalysis
EconomicAssumptions
Price
Cost Escalation
Inflation
Exchange Rate
EconomicResults
Economic
Indicators
Assessment ofGeol. Elements
Sourcereservoir
Trap/ SealTiming
EVALUATIONPROCESS FLOW
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HC Resource Assessment in Virgin BasinsLook-alike Approach
Comparison has to be made on basis of examination of the keyfactors that are favorable for the generation and accumulationof commercial quantities of hydrocarbon .
Three main factors have to be considered in searching for
analogy:
1. Tectonic evolution, basin geometry & size,2. Sedimentation style and,3. The Geothermal history
These factors have control on the presence and effectivenessof the petroleum geological elements are processes
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Step-by-Step
Resource Assessment in Virgin BasinsLook-alike Approach
STEP #1: Look for, and choose a mature basin that iscomparable or similar to the virgin basin under investigation,
STEP #2: Generate a frequency, and thereafter a filed sizedistribution diagram from the discovered fields in the maturebasin,
STEP #3: Work out the mean reserves from the field sizedistribution of the analogous mature basin (Muglad Basin)
STEP #4: Use the Prospect Size Distribution Table to find outthe expected mean HC resource from virgin basin underinvestigation,
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EGYPT
CENTRAL AFRICAN RIFT SYSTEM
MUGLAD BASINBLOCK 2A
TALIH
FIELD
UNITY FIELD
May-25
Bamboo
Tayib
RihanLaloba
BarkiHamra
Kanga
ElGhazal
TOMA SOUTH
El Nar
(U6)El Saqr(U7)
El Harr(U8)
Kaikang-1
Kuoc
Nor
Nyang
Amal-1
Jak
BLOCK 4
BLOCK 1A
ELTOOR
TOMAR
Kaikang-2
HEGLIGFIELD
Jidian
FIELD
Jamousse
Sadeeq
ElMahafir
AmalUpdip(K25)
Umm Saqura
(U14)
Malok(K9)
K5
El Majak
BambooSouth
NH12
El Toor N
El Toor E
Munga Cent.WU5
Khairat E
KS1b(Tamur-1)
Shammam-1(Drilling)
KN15
KN20(Timsah-1)
KN23
KN1
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BASIN TECTONICS &PETROLEUM SYSTEM
Rifting
CretaceousSystem
TertiarySystem
RiftCycles
Sagging
Rifting
Sagging
Rifting
Sagging
S R C T M
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Sedimentation Style
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0
5
10
15
20
25
M G M GS K NE MG N UBS ET SE FH ET N K HN K HW ESS ET E PA PD KHE USS PJ UBN Y AR
Example of field size distribution of discovered reservesLook-alike Approach
Typical lognormal distribution
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P90
P1
P10
P50
P99
Muglad Basin Field Size Distribution
1 10 100 1000Potential Reserves (MMBO)
0.1
P80P70
Mean = 54 MMBO
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The overall mean reserves from lognornmal distribution of the analog(Muglad Basin) is 5.4 X 10 million bbl, and our assessment minimum
were 1.0 x 10, we could run down the Mean column of Table aboveuntil we hit the closest number to 5.4, which is 5.39. The selecteddistribution would be (1 - 4.47 20) X 10. Therefore the mean resourcevolume to be used foreconomic assessment & decision analysiswould be 45 million bbl.
Mean HC Resource Assessment in Virgin BasinsLook-alike Approach
Example of estimating future field size of the virgin basin underconsideration using the Muglad Baisn as ANALOG
Minimum ML Maximum Mean Minimum ML Maximum Mean
1 3.16 10.00 3.51 1 21.20 450.00 43.40
1 3.87 15.00 4.50 1 22.40 500.00 46.90
1 4.47 20.00 5.39 1 24.50 600.00 52.40
1 5.00 25.00 6.13 1 26.50 700.00 60.60
1 5.48 30.00 6.91 1 28.30 800.00 65.40
Prospect size distribution for minimum = 1.0 X 10
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New Frontiers of Exploration Activity
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EconomicAnalysis
(Cash flowModel & Value
Matrix, NPV, EV;Fiscal terms,
Tax)
DECISION
45 MMBO
EngineeringFacility cost,
Production profile,Recover Factor Risk &
SensitivityAnalysis
Economic
Assumptions
Price
Cost Escalation
Inflation
Exchange Rate
Economic
Results
Economic
Indicators
Assessment ofGeol. Elements
Sourcereservoir
Trap/ SealTiming
EVALUATION PROCESS FLOWIN OIL & GAS PROJECTS
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New Frontiers of Exploration Activity
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P90
P1
P10
P50
P99
Muglad Basin Field Size Distribution
1 10 100 1000Potential Reserves (MMBO)
0.1
Small
Fields
Medium
Fields
Large
Fields
P80P70
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Chance node (= nature dictates)
Decision node (= decision maker dictates)
Small Field
Medium Field
Large Field
No Commercial Discovery
POS
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PLAY
SOURCEIs there oil in the
basin?
TRAP/ SEALIs there a place to
collect it?RESERVOIR
Porous rock that
can hold?
TIMINGTrap formation
vs. Generation?
PLAY CONCEPT
Probability of
Success