1158474868049_MI_GTM_1Q14
Transcript of 1158474868049_MI_GTM_1Q14
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As of September 30, 2013
As of December 31, 2013
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Table of Contents
EQUITIES
ECONOMY
4
18
INTERNATIONAL
ASSET CLASS
39
58
U.S. Market Strategy Team
Dr. David P. Kelly, CFA [email protected]
Joseph S. Tanious, CFA [email protected]
-. , . . .
Anastasia V. Amoroso, CFA [email protected]
James C. Liu, CFA [email protected]
Brandon D. Odenath, CFA [email protected]
Gabriela D. Santos [email protected]
2
. . . .
Past performance is no guarantee of comparable future results. For China and Australia distribution, please note this
communication is for intended recipients only and is for wholesale clients only in Australia. For details, please refer to the full
disclaimer at the end. Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of December 31, 2013 or most recently available.
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Page Reference
4. S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points
5. Returns and Valuations by Style
6. Returns and Valuations by Sector
35. High Yield Bonds
36. Municipal Finance
37. Global Fixed Income
38. Emerging Market Debt
Equities
7. Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index
8. Corporate Profits and Leverage
9. Sources of Earnings per Share Growth
10. Sources of Total Return
11. Confidence, Earnings and Multiples
12. Interest Rates and Equities
13. De lo in Cor orate Cash
39. Global Equity Markets: Returns
40. Global Equity Market: Returns to Prior Peaks
41. MSCI EAFE Index at Inflection Points
42. Global Economic Growth
43. Manufacturing Momentum
44. The Im ortance of Ex orts
14. P/E Ratios and Equity Returns
15. Real Earnings Yield and Bull Market Cycles
16. Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines
17. Equity Correlations and Volatility
45. The Impact of Global Consumers
46. Global Demographics and Equity Investment
47. Emerging Market Currencies
48. Sovereign Debt Stresses
49. Global Monetary Policy50. Europe: Unemployment, Inflation and AusterityEconomy
.
19. Cyclical Sectors
20. The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble
21. Consumer Finances
22. Federal Finances
23. Employment
24. Alternative Measures of Labor Utilization
.
52. Japan: Economic Snapshot
53. China: Economic and Credit Growth
54. Global Equity Markets
55. Emerging Market Equity: Composition
56. Global Equity Valuations Developed Markets
57. Global Equity Valuations Emerging Markets.
26. Consumer Price Index
27. Energy and the Economy
28. Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market
29. Fixed Income Sector Returns
58. Asset Class Returns
59. Correlations and Volatility
60. Alternative Asset Class Returns
61. Mutual Fund Flows
62. Yield Alternatives: Domestic and Global
Fixed Income
Asset Class
3
30. Interest Rates and Inflation
31. Fixed Income Yields and Returns32. Sources of Bond Returns
33. The Fed and the Money Supply
34. Credit Conditions
63. Global Commodities
64. Historical Returns by Holding Period65. Diversification and the Average Investor
66. Cash Accounts
67. Corporate DB Plans and Endowments
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S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points
1,800
Index level 1,527 1,565 1,848P/E ratio (fwd.) 25.6x 15.2x 15.4x
S&P 500 IndexDec. 31, 2013
P/E (fwd.) = 15.4x
1,848
Characteristic Mar-2000 Oct-2007 Dec-2013
1,600
. . .10-yr. Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 3.0%
Equ
ities
Mar. 24, 2000
P/E (fwd.) = 25.6x1,527
Oct. 9, 2007
P/E (fwd.) = 15.2x1,565
1,200
1,400
+101%
-57%+173%
+106%
800
1,000-49%
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
600
Source: Standard & Poors, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Oct. 9, 2002P/E (fwd.) = 14.1x
777
. ,P/E (fwd.) = 16.0x
741
Mar. 9, 2009P/E (fwd.) = 10.3x
677
4
, . -
on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates.Returns are cumulative and based on S&P 500 Index price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of futurereturns.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Returns and Valuations by Style
4Q 2013 2013 Current P/E vs. 20-year avg. P/E
Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth
e e 14.1 15.4 17.9
Value Blend Growth
ge
Equ
ities
Lar 10.0% 10.5% 10.4%
Lar 32.5% 32.4% 33.5%
Mid 8.6% 8.4% 8.2% M
id 33.5% 34.8% 35.7%
13.9 16.2 20.9
15.5 17.5 19.5
14.0 16.4 21.8
Lar
Mid
Since Market Low (March 2009)Since Market Peak (October 2007)
Current P/E as % of 20-year avg. P/E
E.g.: Large Cap Blend stocks are 4.9%
cheaper than their historical average.
Sma
ll
9.3% 8.7% 8.2%Sma
ll
34.5% 38.8% 43.3%
16.8 19.2 22.0
14.3 17.1 21.4Sma
ll
Value Blend Growth
Large
101.6% 95.1% 85.7%
id 110.5% 106.8% 89.4%
Value Blend Growth Value Blend Growth
Large
25.3% 35.5% 50.4%Large
212.4% 202.8% 206.8%
id id
Sma
ll
117.3% 112.2% 102.9%
. . . . . .
Sma
ll
42.1% 50.2% 57.8%Sma
ll
251.4% 262.2% 272.4%
5
, , , . . .
All calculations are cumulative total return, including dividends reinvested for the stated period. Since Market Peak represents period 10/9/07 12/31/13, illustratingmarket returns since the S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low represents period 3/9/09 12/31/13, illustrating market returns since the S&P 500 Indexlow on 3/9/09. Returns are cumulative returns, not annualized. For all time periods, total return is based onRussell-style indexes with the exception of the large blend category, which is reflected by the S&P 500 Index.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index
S&P 500 Index: Valuation Measures Historical Averages
Valuation
Measure DescriptionLatest*
1-year
ago
3-year
avg.
5-year
avg.
10-year
avg.
15-year
avg.
Equ
ities P/E Price to Earnings 15.4x 12.6x 13.0x 13.1x 13.9x 16.2x
P/B Price to Book 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.9
P/CF Price to Cash Flow 10.6 8.7 8.9 8.6 9.5 10.8
P/S Price to Sales 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5
PEG Price/Earnin s to Growth 1.5 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.7 1.6
12%
14%50x
S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/EAdjusted using trailing 10-yr. avg. inflation adjusted earnings
S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. Baa Bond Yield
S&P 500 Earnings Yield:
Div. Yield Dividend Yield 2.1% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9%
6%
8%
10%
20x
30x
40x
. .
4Q13:
25.4x
Average: 19.1x
'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '142%
4%
'55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '100x
10xMoodys Baa Yield: 5.3%
Source: (Top) Standard & Poors, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Price to Book is price divided by book value per share. Data
-
7
.
months. Price to Sales is calculated as price divided by consensus analyst estimates of sales per share for the next 12 months. PEG Ratio is calculated as NTM P/E divided byNTM earnings growth. Dividend Yield is calculated as consensus analyst estimates of dividends for the next 12 months divided by price. All consensus analyst estimates are
provided by FactSet. (Bottom left) Cyclically adjusted P/E uses as reported earnings throughout. *Latest reflects data as of 12/31/2013.
(Bottom right) Standard & Poors, IBES, Moodys, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Corporate Profits and Leverage
$2710%
S&P 500 Earnings Per ShareOperating basis, quarterly
Profit MarginsS&P 500 operating earnings per share / sales per share
3Q13:9.6%
3Q13*: $26.92
$23
4%
6%
8%
Equ
ities 2Q07: $24.06
$15
$19
0%
2%
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13
Total Leverage
$7
$11
180%
200%
220%
240%
S&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly
-$1
$3
100%
120%
140%
160%
3Q13:104%
Average: 171%
8
'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01
Source: Standard & Poors, Compustat, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. *Most recently available data is 2Q13 as 3Q13 are Standard & Poors preliminary estimates.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
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Sources of Earnings per Share Growth
50%
S&P 500 Year-Over-Year EPS GrowthGrowth broken into revenue, changes in profit margin & changes in share count
30%
40%
Equ
ities Share of EPS Growth 3Q13
Margin 8.0%
Revenue 3.3%Share count 0.6%
10%
20%
-20%
-10%
-40%
-30%
3Q133Q113Q093Q073Q053Q033Q013Q993Q973Q95
9
Source: Standard & Poors, Compustat, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. Most recently available data is 2Q13 as 3Q13 are Standard & Poors preliminary estimates.Past performance is not indicative of future returns. 4Q2008, 1Q2010 and 2Q2010 reflect -101%, 92% and 51% growth in operating earnings, andare adjusted on the chart.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Sources of Total Return
50%
S&P 500 Year-Over-Year Total ReturnTotal return broken into multiples, earnings and dividends, quarterly
30%
40%
Equ
ities
0%
10%
-30%
-20%
-10%
Share of Total Return 4Q13
-50%
-40%
4Q134Q114Q094Q074Q054Q034Q014Q994Q974Q95
Multiples 18.4%Earnings 11.2%Dividends 2.8%
10
Source: Standard & Poors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Confidence, Earnings and Multiples
27x120
Multiple Expansion and Contraction
Consumer Sentiment Forward P/E
S&P 500 forward P/E based on consensus EPS estimatesEst. impact of a 10pt. rise in sentiment: +2.0 multiple points*
15x
18x
21x
24x
80
90
100
Equ
ities
'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14
9x
12x
50
60
70
Correlation Coefficient: 0.52
S&P 500 Index: Forward P/E Ratio S&P 500 O eratin Earnin s Estimates
$8 0
$100
$120
$140
18x
20x
22x
24x
26x
4Q13: $120.31
$0
$2 0
$4 0
$6 0
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
Average: 14.9x
. .
11
Source: (Top) Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom) Standard & Poors, IBES, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next twelve months. *Estimated impact based on
coefficients from regression analysis. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12'86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
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Interest Rates and Equities
Correlations Between Weekly Stock Returns and Interest Rate MovementsWeekly S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yield, rolling 2-year correlation, 1963-2013
0.8
Equ
ities
Positiverelationshipbetween yieldmovementsand stock
below 5%, risingrates aregenerally
associated withrising stockprices
0.4
0.6
returns
onCo
efficient
0
0.2
Negativerelationship
between yield
Correlati
-0.4
-0.2
stock returns
-0.8
-0.6
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
12
Source: Standard & Poors, US Treasury, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
10-Year Treasury Yield
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Deploying Corporate Cash
30%
Corporate Cash as a % of Current AssetsS&P 500 companies cash and cash equivalents, quarterly
Corporate Growth
Capital Expenditures M&A Activity
$bn, nonfarm nonfinancial capex, quarterly value of deals completed$1,600$1,700
20%
22%
24%
26%
Equ
ities
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
,
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
,
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1314%
16%
18%
Cash Returned to ShareholdersDividend Payout Ratio
$0
$200
$400
$900
$1,000
$1,100
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
50%
60%
$bn, S&P 500 companies, rolling 4-quarter averagesS&P 500 companies, LTM
Dividends per Share
$100
$120
$140
$160
$27
$30
$33
30%
40%
Share Buybacks
$20
$40
$60
$80
$15
$18
$21
$24
13
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13Source: Standard & Poors, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top left) Standard & Poors,FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) M&A activity is the quarterly value of deals completed and capital expenditures are fornonfarm nonfinancial corporate business. (Bottom left) Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Standard &Poors, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
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P/E Ratios and Equity Returns
60% 60%
P/E and Total Return Over 5-yr. Annualized PeriodsP/E and Total Return Over 1-yr. PeriodsQuarterly, 1Q 1952 to 3Q 2008Quarterly, 1Q 1952 to 3Q 2012
40% 40%Equ
ities
20% 20%
0%5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x
0%5x 10x 15x 20x 25x 30x
-40%
-20%
-40%
-20%
14
Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Prices are based on the market value of all U.S. corporations and include quarterlydividends. Valuation based on long-term P/E ratio.
Note: Orange line denote results of linear regression with R-squared of 0.13 for 1-yr. returns (left) and 0.27 for 5-yr. returns (right).
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Real Earnings Yield and Bull Market Cycles
300%7%
Bull Market Cycles Before and After Avg. ValuationReal Earnings Yield S&P 500Price returns to peak after crossing average real earnings yield1963-2013
Returns to peak price after average valuationReal Earnin s Yield
240%
5%
6%
Equ
ities
e urns e ore mar e s pass average va ua on
Average: 2.6%
83%0%180%
3%
4%
16%
30%
4%
0%
60%
120%
0%
1%
29% 49% 73% 121% 59% 180% 101% 173%
15%
0%
'66 '70 '74 '82 '87 '90 '02 '09-2%
-1%
' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
More
Expensive
Valuation more than
average during bull market
15
Source: Standard & Poors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S.Valuations are based on real earnings yield for the S&P 500 which is defined as (trailing four quarters of reported earnings/price) - year over year coreCPI inflation. Period after average valuation defined by 15-day moving average passing below average real earnings yield.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data as of 12/31/2013
ar o u ar e
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Annual Returns and Intra-year Declines
3440%
S&P 500 Intra-year Declines vs. Calendar Year ReturnsDespite average intra-year drops of 14.4%, annual returns positive in 26 of 34 years
26
1517
26
1512
27 26
7
20
27
20
26
9
14
23
13 13
30
10%
20%
30%
Equ
ities
-101 2
-7
4
-2 -10 -13 -23
3 4
-38 0
-7
-
-8-9
-8 -8 -6 -6 -5-9
-3
-8
-11 -12
-8 -7 -8-10 -10
-6-10%
%
-17-18
-17
-34
-20 -19-17
-30
-34
-14
-28
-16
-19
-40%
-30%
-20%
-49
-60%
-50%
'80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
16
Source: Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Returns are based on price index only and do not include dividends. Intra-year drops refers to the largest market drops from a peak to a trough duringthe year. For illustrative purposes only. Returns shown are calendar year returns from 1980 to 2013.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Equity Correlations and Volatility
70%
Large Cap StocksCorrelations Among Stocks
Sovereign DebtCrisis
LehmanGreat Depression /
30%
40%
50%
Equ
ities
Tech Bust & 9/11
1987 Crash
OPEC Oil
Crisis
Cuban Missile Crisis
0%
10%
20%
'26 '32 '38 '44 '50 '56 '62 '68 '74 '80 '86 '92 '98 '04 '10
Average: 26.9% Dec. 2013: 32.7%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
60
75
90Volatility Measure 08 Peak Average LatestDJIA (Left) 3.30% 0.72% 0.47%VIX (Right) 80.9 20.2 13.7
DJIA vol. shownin 3-month
moving average
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
.
15
30
45
17
'30 '35 '40 '45 '50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '100.0% 0
Source: (Top) Empirical Research Partners LLC, Standard & Poors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Capitalization weighted correlation of top750 stocks by market capitalization, daily returns, 1926 Dec. 31, 2013. (Bottom) CBOE, Dow Jones, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. DJIAvolatility are represented as three-month moving averages of the daily absolute percentage change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Charts shown for illustrative purposes only. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP
10% $18,000
Real GDPYear over year % chg 50-yr avg. 3Q13
Components of GDP3Q13 nominal GDP, billions USD
3.2% HousingReal GDP
6%
8%
$14,000
$16,000
y
. .
13.0% Investment ex-housing
18.6% Govt Spending$1,482 bnof outputrecovered
Average:
QoQ % chg: 3.1% 4.1%
2%
4%
$8,000
$10,000
,
Econo
.
-2%
0%
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000 68.2% Consumption
$639 bn ofoutput lost
-6%
-
'63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 -$2,000
$0
Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
- 3.0% Net Exports
18
a ues may no sum o ue o roun ng. uar er over quar er percen c anges are a an annua ze ra e.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Cyclical Sectors
24
Millions, seasonally adjusted annual rateLight Vehicle Sales
46
47
Manufacturing and Trade InventoriesDays of sales, seasonally adjusted
14
1618
20
y Average: 15.2
Nov. 2013:
16.3
41
4243
44
45
Oct. 2013:39.2
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '128
10
12
Econo
Real Capital Goods Orders
Housing Starts
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '1437
38
39
$6 0
$6 5
$7 0
$7 5
1,600
2,000
2,400
- . , ,ousan s, seasona y a us e annua rae
Nov. 2013:60.5
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12$4 0
$4 5
$5 0
$5 5
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '120
400
800
, .1,091
Average: 56.2
,
19
Source: (Top left) BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left) Census Bureau,FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Capital goods orders deflated using the producer price index for capital goods with a base year of 2004.Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble
40%140
Housing Affordability IndexAvg. mortgage payment as a % of household incomeIndexed to 100, seasonally adjusted
Home Prices
-
20%
25%
30%
130
y
Nov. 2013:13.2%
FHFA Purchase Only
Average Existing Home
10%
15%
'75 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10
110
120
Econo
Home Inventories
.
100
ons, annua rae, seasona y a use
3.5
4.0
4.5
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
80
90
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '141.5
2.0
2.5
.
Nov. 2013: 2.3
20
Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poors, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Monthly mortgage payment assumes the prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and average new home prices excluding a 20% downpayment. (Bottom right) Census
Bureau, National Association of Realtors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Consumer Finances
$100 14%
Household Debt Service RatioDebt payments as % of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted
4Q07:
Consumer Balance SheetTrillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted
$80
$90
11%
12%
13%
y
1Q80:11.0%
.Total Assets: $90.9tn
Homes: 24%
- .1Q-09 Low: $69.8tn
$50
$60'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
9%
10%
Econo
4Q13*:10.0%
Household Net WorthBillions USD, not seasonally adjusted
*
Deposits: 10%
Other Tangible: 6%
$30
$40
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000$79,7653Q07:
$69,094
ens on un s:Other Non-revolving: 1%
Revolving (e.g.: credit cards): 6%Auto Loans: 6%
Other Liabilities: 8%Student Debt: 9%
$0
$10
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000Total Liabilities: $13.7tn
Assets: 39%
Mortgages: 70%
21
Source: (Left) FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data includes households and nonprofit organizations. (Right) BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset
Management. *4Q13 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to100% due to rounding.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Federal Finances
-12%
-
$4.0
The 2013 Federal BudgetCBO Baseline forecast, trillions USD
Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit% of GDP, 1975 2023, 2013 CBO Baseline
Forecast2013:-4.1%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
$3.0
$3.5
y
Total Spending: $3.5tn
Other
$359bn (10%)
Net Int.: $223bn (6%)
Borrowing:$642bn (19%)
2%
4%'75 '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23
$2.0
$2.5
Econo
Defense:
$751bn (22%)
on- e ense sc.:$461bn (13%)
Social Insurance:
$952bn (28%)
Other: 237bn (7%)
Federal Net Debt (Accumulated Deficits)% of GDP, 1975 2023, 2013 CBO Baseline, end of fiscal year
50%
60%
70%
80%
$1.0
$1.5
Social Security:$809bn (23%)
Corp.: $291bn (8%)
2023: 71.4%
2013: 72.8%
20%
30%
40%
'75 '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23$0.0
$0.5
Total Government Spending Sources of Financing
Medicare & Medicaid:$852bn (25%)
$1,333bn (39%) Forecast
22
Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, OMB, CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
2013 Federal Budget is based on the CBOs May 2013 Baseline Scenario. Other spending includes, but is not limited to, health insurance subsidies, income security,and federal civilian and military retirement.Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). 2013 numbers in right hand charts are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Employment
60012%
Civilian Unemployment Rate Employment Total Private PayrollSeasonally adjusted Total job gain/loss (thousands)
200
400
10%
11%
y 8.8mmOct. 2009: 10.0%
-200
0
8%
9%
Econo
8.1mmjobs
-600
-400
6%
7% Nov. 2013: 7.0%
-1,000
-800
3%
4%
50-yr. avg.: 6.1%
23
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13'70 '80 '90 '00 '10
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
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Alternative Measures of Labor Utilization
Job Gains and Losses Nov. 2012 to Oct. 2013Millions of jobs
68%
Labor Force Participation Rate% of population aged 16+ working or looking for work
50
y
Other Separations: 4.4mm
Total Separations: 51.0mm .
64%
65%
66%
67%
30
Econo
Quits:27.0 mm
Average Hourly Earnings Growth
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '1262%
63%
Nov. 2013: 63.0%
20
3%
4%
5%
La offs and
Nov. 2013:2.2%
.
0
10
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '120%
1%
2%
Discharges:19.6mm
24
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Employment and Income by Educational Attainment
18%$87,981$90,000
Average Annual Earnings by Highest Degree EarnedFull-time workers aged 18 and older, 2011, USD
Unemployment Rate by Education Level
14%
16%
$70,000
$80,000
y
+29K
Nov. 2013:
Less than High School Degree
High School No College
Some CollegeCollege or Greater
10%
12% $59,415
$50,000
$60,000
Econo
+27KNov.2013:
10.8%
6%
8%
$32,493
$30,000
$40,000
Nov. 2013:6.4%
.
2%
4
$0
$10,000
,
Nov. 2013:3.4%
25
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 High School Graduate Bachelor's Degree Advanced Degree
Source: Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Unemployment rates shown are for civilians aged 25 and older.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Consumer Price Index
15%
CPI and Core CPI50-yr. Avg. Nov. 2013
Headline CPI: 4.2% 1.2%
% change vs. prior year, seasonally adjustedCPI
Components
Weight in
CPI
12-month
Change
Food & Bev. 15.3% 1.2%
12%
y
Core CPI: 4.1% 1.7%Housing 41.0% 2.1%
Apparel 3.6% -0.1%
Transportation 16.8% -0.9%
6%
9%
Econo Medical Care 7.2% 2.2%
Recreation 6.0% 0.5%
Educ. & Comm. 6.8% 1.6%
0%
3%
. .
Headline CPI 100.0% 1.2%
Less:
Energy 9.6% -2.5%
'65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10-3%
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Food 14.3% 1.2%
Core CPI 76.1% 1.7%
26
CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. 1 year ago and reflect November 2013 CPI data. CPI component weights are as of December 2012 and 12-monthchange reflects non-seasonally adjusted data through November 2013. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Energy and the Economy
4%
Economic Drag From Oil PricesU.S. petroleum imports as a % of GDP
3Q08: 3.7%Kuwait
Middle East Energy Production & Chokepoints
Percent of global liquid fuel production, 2012*
2%
3%
y
Iran3.9%
Iraq3.9%
3.4%0.2%
Suez Canal2.2%
'70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
0%
1%
Econo 4Q13*: 2.3%
Total U.S. Ener Net Im orts
Libya1.8%
Egypt0.8% Saudi Arabia
12.9%
Strait ofHormuz
Energy Spending by Income Level% of after-tax income
25%
30%
35%
% of total energy consumption
EIAforecast
0.1%
UAE3.5%
.
Bab el-Mandeb
5%
10%
15%
3.4%
Major Producers Major Consum ers
Percent of global total, 2012 Percent of global total, 2012
Saudi Arabia 13% China 5% United States 21% India 4%
27
Source: (Left) EIA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) EIA, J.P. MorganAsset Management. Forecasts are from EIA Annual Energy Outlook and start in 2013. *4Q13 drag on growth is a J.P. Morgan Asset Managementestimate. *Production numbers as of 2012, while chokepoints are 2011 data. Guide to the Markets U.S.. Data as of 12/31/2013.
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Russia 12% Iran 4% Japan 5% Brazil 3%
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Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market
130
Consumer Sentiment Index University of Michigan
Impact on Consumer Sentiment from a
110
120
y
Jan. 2000
-2.0%
Jan. 2004+4.4%
- .
+1.8
+2.9
-5.3
- -
10% y-o-y rise in home prices
10% y-o-y rise in the S&P 500
1% y-o-y rise in the unemployment rate
90
100
Average: 85.3
Econo
.+13.5%
May 1977+1.2%
.-6.2%
Jan. 2007-4.2%
60
70
Oct. 1990
Mar. 2003+32.8% Oct. 2005
+14.2%
' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '40
50
Feb. 1975+22.2%
May 1980+19.2%
+29.1%
Nov. 2008+22.3%
Aug. 2011+15.4%Sentiment Cycle Low and
subsequent 12-month S&P 500 Indexreturn
28
Source: University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a seriesof higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on consumer sentiment isbased on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000 10/31/2013. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/2013.
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Fixed Income Sector Returns
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4Q13 Cum. Ann.
EMD EMD High Yield TIPS Treas. High Yield High Yield TIPS EMD High Yield High Yield High Yield High Yield
10-yrs. '04 - '13
. . . . . . . . . . . . .
High Yield Asset
Alloc. EMD Treas. MBS EMD EMD Muni High Yield MBS EMD EMD EMD
11.1% 3.5% 10.0% 9.0% 8.3% 34.2% 12.8% 12.3% 15.8% -1.4% 1.2% 126.9% 8.5%
TIPS TIPS MBS Barclays
Agg
Barclays
Agg Corp. Corp. Treas. Corp. Corp. Corp.
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc.
8.5% 2.8% 5.2% 7.0% 5.2% 18.7% 9.0% 9.8% 9.8% -1.5% 1.1% 72.3% 5.6%
Asset
Alloc. Treas.
Asset
Alloc. MBS Muni
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc. Corp. Corp.
6.2% 2.8% 5.1% 6.9% 1.5% 15.3% 7.8% 9.1% 7.7% -2.0% 0.3% 68.1% 5.3%
Corp. Muni Muni
Asset
Alloc.
Asset
Alloc. TIPS
Barclays
Agg Corp. TIPS
Barclays
Agg Muni TIPS TIPS5.4% 2.7% 4.7% 6.4% -0.8% 11.4% 6.5% 8.1% 7.0% -2.0% -0.1% 60.6% 4.8%c
om
e
MBS High Yield Barclays
Agg EMD TIPS Muni TIPS
Barclays
Agg Muni Muni
Barclays
Agg Muni Muni
4.7% 2.7% 4.3% 5.2% -2.4% 9.9% 6.3% 7.8% 5.7% -2.2% -0.1% 57.5% 4.6%
Barclays
Agg MBS Corp. Corp. Corp.
Barclays
Agg Treas. EMD
Barclays
Agg Treas. MBS MBS MBS
4.3% 2.6% 4.3% 4.6% -4.9% 5.9% 5.9% 7.0% 4.2% -2.7% -0.4% 57.0% 4.6%
FixedI
Muni
Agg Treas. Muni EMD MBS MBS MBS MBS EMD Treas.
Agg
Agg
4.1% 2.4% 3.1% 4.3% -14.7% 5.9% 5.4% 6.2% 2.6% -4.1% -0.8% 56.0% 4.5%
Treas. Corp. TIPS High Yield High Yield Treas. Muni High Yield Treas. TIPS TIPS Treas. Treas.
3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 1.9% -26.2% -3.6% 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% -8.6% -2.0% 51.3% 4.2%
Source: Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
29
Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Fixed income sectors shown above are provided by Barclays Capital and are represented by: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate
Index; MBS: Fixed Rate MBS Index; Corporate: U.S. Corporates; Municipals: Muni Bond 10-Year Index; Emerging Debt: Emerging Markets USD Index; High Yield: Corporate HighYield Index; Treasuries: Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury; TIPS: Barclays Capital TIPS. The Asset Allocation portfolio assumes the following weights:10% in MBS, 20% in Corporate, 15% in Municipals, 10% in Emerging Debt, 10% in High Yield, 25% in Treasuries, 10% in TIPS.
Asset allocation portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Interest Rates and Inflation
20%
Nominal and Real 10-year Treasury Yields
15%
ep. , :15.84%
Average 12/31/13
Nominal Yields 6.36% 3.04%Real Yields 2.53% 1.32%
10%
com
eNominal 10-yearTreasury Yield
5%
FixedI Dec. 31, 2013: 3.04%
Real 10-year
-
0%
Dec. 31, 2013: 1.32%
Rising Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 5001958-1981 3.0% 8.6%Ann. Inflation 5.0% 5.0%Ann. Real Return -2.0% 3.5%
Falling Rate Corp. Bonds S&P 5001982-2012 10.1% 11.0%Ann. Inflation 3.1% 3.1%Ann. Real Return 6.8% 7.7%
30
'60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
-
Source: Federal Reserve, BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Real 10-year Treasury yields are calculated as the daily Treasury yield less year-over-year core inflation for that month except for December 2013,where real yields are calculated by subtracting out November 2013 year-over-year core inflation. All returns above reflect annualized total returns,which include reinvestment of dividends. Corporate bond returns are based on a composite index of investment grade bond performance. Guide to theMarkets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Sources of Bond Returns
-2.5% 5-yr.1.1%
Coupon Return2013 C
Total Return2013 A + B + C
Treasury Base Rate Return2013 A
Spread to Treasury Return2013 B
-3.5%5-yr.
-7.8%
-15.0%
10-yr.
30-yr.
2.1%
3.3%
-9.9%
-18.4%
10-yr.
30-yr.
-2.2%
7.4%
-4.1%
10-yr. Muni
U.S. HY
EM USD
4.3%
7.3%
5.9%com
e 9.4%
-0.3%
-6.5%
-9.3%
-9.7%
10-yr. Muni
U.S. HY
EM USD
-1.5%
-1.4%
IG Corp.
U.S. MBS
4.4%
3.8%
FixedI
3.0%
1.0%
-9.0%
-6.3%
IG Corp.
U.S. MBS
-2.0%
2.4%
-20% -10% 0% 10%
U.S. Agg.
FRN (BBB)
3.2%
1.4%
-20% -10% 0% 10%
1.0%
2.4%
-20% -10% 0% 10%
-6.2%
-1.4%
-20% -10% 0% 10%
U.S. Agg.
FRN (BBB)
32
Source: Federal Reserve, Barclays, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
All returns reflect year to date returns. Treasury base, spread, and coupon returns based on Barclays and J.P. Morgan Asset Managementestimates. The sum of charts A and B equate to price return for each sector.
Indices used include Barclays US Treasury Bellwethers (10Y), Barclays US Aggregate, Barclays US Aggregate Credit Corporate InvestmentGrade, Barclays US Aggregate Credit Corporate High Yield, Barclays Muni 10-year Index, Barclays US MBS Index, Barclays Floating RateIndex, and Barclays Emerging Markets USD. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
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The Fed and the Money Supply
10x
Money MultiplierM2 / Monetary Base
Feds Balance Sheet: Assets$ trillions
$4.0
$4.5
5x
6x
7x
8x
er
U.S. Treasuries
Agency MBS
Dec. 2013:$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '132x
3x
4x
Feds Balance Sheet: Liabilities
com
e
Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Interest Rate Projections
3.0x
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
6%
8%
10%
12r ons
FixedI
Long-term Fedprojection
Other Liabilities
Excess Reserves
Required Reserves
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
0%
2%
4%
'84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '09 '12 '14
Dec. 31, 2013:0.0%-0.25%
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
33
Source: Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Monetary base is defined as the total amount of a currency that is either circulated in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits heldin the central bank's reserves. Money multiplier defined as M2 divided by the monetary base. Long-term Fed projection is the average ofexpectations of FOMC members. Other liabilities of the Federal Reserve primarily consist of currency outstanding.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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Credit Conditions
760 12%
Delinquency RatesAll banks, seasonally adjusted
Lending Standards for Approved Mortgage LoansAverage FICO score based on origination date
700
720
740
4%
6%
8%
10% Consumer Loans
Commercial and Industrial Loans
8.6%
2.4%
Nov. 2013:
737
660
680
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '120%
2%
com
e1.0%
Common Equity as a % of Total Assets
Mortgage Originations
10%
12%
14%
FixedI ,
2012:11.1%
$300
$350
$400
$450
u y, , y u
3Q13:
4%
6%
8%
' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
Average: 7.6%
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12$50
$100
$150
$200
$184bn
+77%
34
Source: (Top left) McDash, J.P. Morgan Securitized Product Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan AssetManagement. (Bottom left): Federal Reserve, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) FDIC, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
All data reflect most recently available releases.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
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High Yield Bonds
20%Average Latest
HY Spreads 5.9% 4.4%Lev. Loan Spreads 5.0% 3.2%HY Defaults Rates 4.1% 0.7%
High Yield Spreads and Defaults
HY Spreads
5%
10%
ev. oan prea s
HY Default Rates
0%'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
com
e
Historical High Yield Recovery RatesHi h ield bonds cents on the dollar
Annual Flows into High Yield and Leveraged Loan FundsMutual funds & ETFs, billions USD YTD 2013: $70.6bn
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
40
50
60
70
FixedI
Average: 40.7 High Yield
Leveraged Loans
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
35
Source (Top chart): U.S. Treasury, J.P. Morgan, Strategic Insight, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Default rates are defined as the par value percentage of the total market
trading at or below 50% of par value and include any Chapter 11 filing, prepackaged filing or missed interest payments. (Bottom left): J.P Morgan, Fitch, J.P. Morgan AssetManagement. (Bottom right): Strategic Insight, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Spreads indicated are benchmark yield to worst less comparable maturity Treasury yields.
2013 recovery rate is a weighted average number as of December 2013. Yield to worst is defined as the lowest potential yield that can be received
on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting and reflects the possibility of the bond being called at an unfavorable time for the holder.
Flows include ETFs and are as of November 2013. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Municipal Finance
9%
10%
State & Local Government Debt Service% of current expenditures
Muni Taxable Equivalent 10-Year Yield
Taxable equivalent Muni and Treasury yields 3Q13: 9.0%12%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Taxable Equivalent 10-Yr Muni Yield
10%
3%
4%
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
com
e
Municipal Bond Issuance*Billions USD revenue and GO issues
6%
8%
FixedI
10-Yr Treasury Yield
$300bn
$400bn
$500bn
4%
Spread
$0bn
$100bn
$200bn
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
0%
2%
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
36
Source (Left chart): Barclays Capital, U.S. Treasury, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) SIFMA, J.P.
Morgan Asset Management.
Taxable equivalent yields are calculated for the highest federal marginal tax bracket. 2013 tax rate includes the net investment income tax of 3.8%.
*Excludes maturities of 13 months or less and private placements. Interest payments include interest accrued on defined benefit liabilities.
2013 issuance data is as of November 2013. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Fixed Income
Aggregates # of issuesCorrel to
10-yearDuration Current Spread 4Q13 2013
- -
ReturnYield
$90
Global Bond MarketUSD, trillions
EM: $6tn
. . , . . . - . - .
Glbl ex. U.S. 9,755 0.40 6.5 1.92% 53 -0.59% -3.03%
Japan 1,434 0.53 7.8 0.63% 3 -6.35% -15.87%
Germany 892 0.27 5.5 1.34% 23 1.28% 2.59%
$70
$8012/31/89 9/30/13
U.S. 61.9% 42.1%Dev. ex U.S. 37.9% 54.2%
EM 0.1% 3.7%
U.K. 981 0.17 8.3 2.71% 39 1.17% -0.58%
Australia 395 0.14 4.8 3.17% 49 -2.22% -7.99%
France 822 0.25 6.1 1.76% 53 2.20% 4.60%
Italy 254 0.09 6.0 2.99% 172 5.32% 11.56% $40
$50
60
com
e Developed ex
U.S.: $50tn
Spain 303 0.12 5.0 2.74% 173 4.07% 15.52%
Sector
EMD ($) 1,214 0.23 5.7 5.25% 313 1.17% -4.12%
EMD (LCL) 465 0.05 4.8 5.69% 78 -0.31% -4.32%
$20
$30
FixedI
Euro Corp. 1,388 0.19 4.3 2.07% 115 0.96% 2.37%
Euro HY. 616 -0.36 3.8 5.08% 328 4.00% 9.90%
EM Corp. 434 0.23 6.3 5.60% 251 1.50% -2.39%$0
$10
'89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11
Source: Barclays Capital, BIS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Fixed income sectors shown above are provided by Barclays Capital and are represented by
. .: n
37
the global aggregate for each country. EMD sectors are represented by Barclays Emerging Markets USD Aggregate Index, Barclays Emerging Market Local Currency Government Index, and
JPM CEMBI. European Corporates represent the Barclays Euro Aggregate Credit Corporate Index and the Barclays Pan-European High Yield index. Sector yields reflect yield to worst.Spread is the option adjusted spread to benchmark yields for each respective sector. Duration represents modified duration. Correlations are based on 10-years of monthly returns for the U.S.
Aggregate, Japan Aggregate, EMD USD, European Corporates and European High Yield. Correlations for the Barclays Global Aggregate ex U.S. arecalculated from December 2006, EMD (LCL) is calculated from August 2008. All other sector correlations are calculated from March 2007.Past performance is not indicative of future results. Current data are as of 12/31/2013 unless otherwise noted. Guide to the Markets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Emerging Market Debt
12%
Emerging Markets Debt SpreadsSpread to Treasuries of USD-denominated debt, percent
Index Breakdown USD Denominated EMD
Index Average
Spread
Spread
(12/31/13)
Middle East &Africa 12%
Middle East &Africa 15%
100%
4%
6%
8%
EMBIG 3.8% 3.3%
CEMBI 3.3% 3.3%
Asia 41%
Europe 34%
Europe 16%
Latin America36%
Latin America28%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0%
2%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
com
e
Annual Flows into EMD Mutual Funds & ETFsBillions USD
Emerging Market Debt Credit RatingEMBIG average monthly credit rating, inverse scale
Asia 18%
0%Sovereigns
(EMBIG)Corporates
(CEMBI)
$15
$20
$25
$30
FixedI
. -
BB+
BBB-
BB
BB-
: - . n
'93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13
-$5
$0
$5
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
B-
B
B+
38
Source: J.P. Morgan, MorganMarkets, FactSet, Strategic Insight, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Spreads measure the credit risk premium over comparable maturity U.S. Treasury bonds. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global (EMBIG) Index is a USD-denominated external debt index tracking bonds issued by sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns in developing nations. The J.P. Morgan Corporate EmergingBond Index (CEMBI) is a USD-denominated external debt index tracking bonds issued by corporations in developing nations. Flow data is as ofNovember 2013. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results. Index breakdown may not equate to 100% due to rounding.Guide to the Markets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Equity Markets: Returns
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%Country / Region
4Q13 2013
Local USD Local USD
Sources of Global Equity Returns 2013
Total return, USD
32.4%U.S.
(S&P 500)
Regions / Broad Indexes
U.S. (S&P 500) - 10.5 - 32.4EAFE 6.4 5.7 27.5 23.3
-
28.7%Europe
(ex. U.K.)
. . . . . .
Pacif ic ex-Japan 3.2 0.3 16.5 5.6
Emerging Markets 3.0 1.9 3.8 -2.3
MSCI: Selected Countries.
20.7%U.K.
United Kingdom 5.0 7.4 18.5 20.7
France 4.3 6.2 22.1 27.7
Germany 11.3 13.3 26.7 32.4
Japan 9.6 2.3 54.8 27.3o
nal
-2.3%EM
China 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0
India 9.0 10.3 8.6 -3.8
Brazil 0.2 -5.5 -3.0 -15.8Internati
Dividends
Earnings
Multiples
Total Return
39
. . . .
Source: Standard & Poors, MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
All return values are MSCI Gross Index (official) data. Multiples and earnings in sources of return calculation based on consensus expectations.Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see disclosure page for index definitions.Guide to the Markets U.S.Data as of 12/31/13.
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Global Equity Markets: Returns to Prior Peaks
Italy
Returns to Reach 2007 Peak PriceTotal return, local currency, assumes average dividend from 00-12
MSCI EAFE Index: Return Needed to Reach 2007 PeakAnalysis as of Dec. 31, 2013, implied average annualized total return
29.6%1 Yr
China
Spain
Russia
15.5%
11.1%
2 Yrs
3 Yrs
Europe ex-U.K.
Japan
Brazil
MSCI EME Index: Return Needed to Reach 2007 Peak
9.0%
7.8%
4 Yrs
5 Yrs
German
Emerging Markets
EAFE
Pacific ex-Japan
o
nal
Analysis as of Dec. 31, 2013, implied average annualized total return
18.8%
10.3%
1 Yr
2 Yrs
U.S.
India
UnitedKingdom
Internati
7.6%
6.3%
3 Yrs
4 Yrs
40
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Source: Standard & Poors, MSCI, IMF, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
All return values are MSCI Gross Index (official) data. Data assume dividend yields as of 12/31/13 (MSCI EAFE: 2.9% and MSCI EM: 2.5%).Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please see disclosure page for index definitions.Guide to the Markets U.S.Data as of 12/31/13.
180%.
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MSCI EAFE Index at Inflection Points
1,400 Index level 1,136 1,212 956
P/E ratio (fwd.) 28.7x 14.5x 13.3x
MSCI EAFE Index Characteristic Mar-2000 Jul-2007 Dec-2013
1,100
1,200
1,300 . . .
10-yr. German Bunds 5.3% 4.6% 1.9%
Mar. 29, 2000
P/E (fwd.) = 28.7x1,136
Jul. 16, 2007
P/E (fwd.) = 14.5x
1,212
800
900
1,000
-56%
ec. ,
P/E (fwd.) = 13.3x
956
+141%
-57% +85%
+70%
600
700
Dec. 31, 1996
P/E (fwd.) = 19.5x
670
o
nal
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
400
500
Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Mar. 12, 2003
P/E (fwd.) = 13.2x
503
Mar. 9, 2009
P/E (fwd.) = 10.2x
518
Internati
41
Index levels are in local currency. Dividend yield is calculated as the annualized dividend rate divided by price, as provided by MSCI. Forward Price to Earnings Ratio is abottom-up calculation based on the most recent MSCI EAFE Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided byFactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on MSCI EAFE Index price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends.Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Economic Growth
10%
Year-over-year % chg. forecasts from JPMSIEmerging Market Country Real GDP Growth
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
Historical
3Q14
JPMSI Forecast
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-4%
-2%
Emerging Markets China India Korea Brazil South Africa Mexico Russia
Developed Market Country Real GDP Growth
4%
6%
8%
10%
Year-over-year % chg. forecasts from JPMSI
o
nal
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14
3Q14
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
DevelopedCountries
Japan U.S. U.K. Canada Germany France ItalyInternati
42
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Forecast and aggregate data come from J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research. Historical growth data collected from FactSet Economics.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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The Importance of Exports
Exports as a % of GDP2012, goods exported Estimated increase in quarterly real GDP reflecting stronger DM exports
Emerging Market Real GDP Growth Sensitivity to DM
.
16.1%
24.9%China
India
raz
Turkey
S. Africa
raz
U.S.
Europe
U.S.
5.
9.5%U.S.
uss a
Russia
Mexico
Chile
Other
BRICJapan
13.4%
18.5%
17.4%
o
nal
Eurozone
U.K.
Japan
Korea
Hungary
21.3%
24.3%
38.5%Internati
Germany
Italy
France
Thailand
Taiwan
44
Source: IMF, MacData, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. (Right chart) Assumes a 1% increase in GDP growth from Japan, Europe, and the U.S., and estimatesa reaction function through a multistage regression measuring emerging market economies sensitivity to export volumes. Developed market importsare used as a proxy for developed demand and estimated from a 1% pick up in domestic GDP. Increases in industrial production are estimated whilecontrolling for emerging market domestic demand in order to limit feedback loops and isolate the impulse from developed market demand only. Thesample period tested ranges between 1993 and 2013 reflecting quarterly data. Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6%
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The Impact of Global Consumers
Share of Global Nominal ConsumptionThe Impact of Urbanization
Urbanization ratios and GDP per capita (current USD), 1961 2012$60,000
40%
$50,000Japan
U.S.
35%
$30,000
,
GDP
perCapita
South25%
30%
o
nal
U.S. Consumption % of Global
EM Consumption % of Global
$10,000
$20,000
China
India
orea
20%
Source: FactSet, United Nations, J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Internati
$-15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95%
Urbanization Ratio
15%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
45
.
Guide to the Markets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Demographics and Equity Investment
GDP USD
(Bns)
GDP Per
CapitaPopulation
Economic and Demographic Snapshot Value of Public Companies as a % of GDPIncludes companies with market value greater than $1bn and 2013 GDP
Developed
U.S. $16,724 $52,839 317 mm
Canada 1,825 51,871 35
U.K. 2,490 39,049 64
141%
77% 74% 49%39% 38%50%
100%
Germany 3,593 43,952 82
France 2,739 42,991 64
Japan 5,007 39,321 127
22%
0%U.K. U.S. Japan Korea India Mexico Brazil Russia China
Private Equity Investment as a % of GDPta y , ,
Emerging
Korea 1,198 23,838 50
India 1,758 1,414 1,243
o
nal
nnua prvae equ y nvesmen , o ,
1.05%
0.86%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Brazil 2,190 10,958 200
Mexico 1,327 11,224 118
Russia 2,118 14,973 141
China 8,939 6,569 1,361
Internati
0.22%0.18%
0.14%0.08% 0.08% 0.06%
0.01%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
.
U.K. U.S. Korea Brazil India China Ja an Russia Mexico
46
Source: IMF, J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research, FactSet, EMPEA (Emerging Markets Private Equity Association), J.P. Morgan AssetManagement.
Number of listed companies excludes secondary listings, non-equity securities, and companies with market capitalization of less than $1 billion.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Emerging Market Currencies
8%
EM Sensitivity to Capital Flows and Currency Performance
China (Mainland)
Korea
Mexico
Hungary
-2%
3%
-8% -4% 0% 4% 8%
rforma
nce
20%
ChileMalaysia
Russia
ThailandColombia
SingaporeTaiwan
Philippines
-7%
eCurrencyP
Brazil
India
Appreciation
Between 0% to -5%
-17%
-
o
nal
Year-to-Da
Currency Performance Key
Indonesia
South Africa
Less than -5%
-27%
-22%
Current Account % of GDP
Internati
47
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Current accounts as a percentage of GDP are IMF estimates for 2013. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data reflect most recently available as of 12/31/13.
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Sovereign Debt Stresses
10%
Bubble size = 10-year
government bond yield
GDP Growth, Gross Debt to GDP and Borrowing Costs
Indonesia
Malaysia
10%
5%
6%
8%
014F)
Brazil
South Africa
Mexico
U.S.
Turkey
Korea
France
Germany
JapanRussia
SingaporeAust ralia
U.K.
0%
2%
row
th(20122
Greece
Italy
Spain
Portugal
-4%
-2%
RealGDP
o
nal
-8%
-6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%
Developed Markets
Emerging Markets
Internati
245%
48
Gross Debt-to-GDP Ratios (2013F)
Source: IMF, FactSet, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Economics, Barclays, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Growth and debt data are based on the October 2013 World Economic Outlook.
Borrowing costs based on local currency debt. EU overall borrowing cost based on Barclays Capital Euro-Aggregate 7-10 year treasury. South Africas
borrowing cost is based on 7-year government bond yield due to data availability. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data as of 12/31/13.
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Global Monetary Policy
40%
50%
3%
4%
Central Bank Assets Percent of Nominal GDP Real Policy Rates Monthly
20%
30%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
0%
10%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-3%
-2%
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Developed Markets
Country Level Monetary Policy and Inflation
Emerging Markets
Inflation Rate Real Polic RateTar et Polic Rate
U.S. Federal Reserve
o
nal
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
Internati
-5.0%
-2.5%
HongKong
U.K.
Japan
U.S.
Euroarea
Australia
Canada
India
Russia
Indonesia
SouthAfrica
Turkey
Mexico
Thailand
Colombia
Taiwan
Korea
Poland
China
Brazil
49
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.(Top charts) Emerging and Developed Economy GDP growth and real policy rates represent GDP weighted aggregates estimated by J.P. MorganGlobal Economics Research. (Bottom chart) Target policy rates are the short-term target interest rates set by central banks. Inflation rates shownrepresent year-over-year quarterly rates for 4Q13. Real policy rates are short-term target interest rates set by central banks minus year-over-yearinflation. Guide to the Markets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
Developed Markets Emerging Markets
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Europe: Unemployment, Inflation and Austerity
13%
7%7%
Government Fiscal Drag% of GDP, fiscal drag = reduction in deficits from one period to the next
Unemployment Rate - Quarterly12.0%
7%
9%
5%
6%
2010-2013
2013-2016
refisca
ldrag
Europe
7.3%
3%
5%
'70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
3%
4%
4% 4%
3% 3%
3% 3%
3%
4%
Europe Inflation
Avg. SinceNov. 2013
M
U.S.
1%
1%
2%
2%2%
2%
ear-over-year c ange
3%
4%
5% Headline CPI 2.1% 0.9%
Core CPI 1.7% 1.1%
o
nal
sfiscaldrag
1%
0%
'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11
0%
1%
Internati
Le
50
Source: Eurostat, OECD, FactSet, IMF, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Government deficits calculated by the IMF as general government net lending/borrowing (revenue minus total expenditure).
Data are based on the October 2013 World Economic Outlook. Unemployment rates are OECD estimates as of September 2013.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Eurozone: Sovereign Bond Yields
European Sovereign Funding Costs10-year benchmark bond yield
35%
12/31/13
Greece 8.26%
30%
or uga .
Spain 4.18%
Ireland 4.2%
Germany 1.94%
Ireland 3.44%
Euro launch
Italy 4.11%
20%
LTRO
10%
15%
OMT
o
nal
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11
0%
5%
Internati
51
Source: Tullett Prebon, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Note: The ECB announced the second round of Long Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) in February 2012. The Outright Monetary Transaction (OMT) program was announced in September 2012.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Japan: Economic Snapshot
9%13 0
18,000
20,000
Inflation and Japanese Government Bond YieldsYear-over-year % change for inflation
Japanese Yen per U.S. DollarNikkei 225
Japanese Yen and the Stock Market
7%
90
10 0
11 0
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Bank of Japan 13%
Other Domestic 79%Foreign 8%
Owners of Japanese Gov. Bonds
3%
5%
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '1370
80
6,000
8,000
Nominal 10-year Yield Government Fiscal Balance% of GDP
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
1%
o
nal
forecast
-2%
0%
2%
4%
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18'87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13-3%
-1%
Internati
Core CPI
52
Source: (Left) Bank of Japan, OECD, IMF, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding fresh food. Other Domestic includes banks (34%), insurance and pensions (23%), public pensions (7%),
households (3%), and others (11%). Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Government bond data is calculated from the Bank of Japans
June 2013 flow of funds. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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China: Economic and Credit Growth
40%16%
China Real GDP ContributionYear-over-year % change Year-over-year % change, 3-month moving average for credit
Credit* vs. GDP Growth
30%
35%
12%
Investment
Consumption
Net Exports9.1%
10.4%
Credit
Real GDP
GDP Deflator
20%
25%
4.5%
8.1%
5.5% 4.5%
3.9%
8%
. .
7.8%
10%
15%
4.2%
4.6%4.5% 5.2%
4.1%
4%
o
nal
-5%
0%
' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' '
.
-3.5%
.
-0.4% -0.2%
-4%
0%
Internati
53
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, The Peoples Bank of China, EM Advisors Group, FactSet, CEIC, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. *As defined by Total Social Financing: RMB bank loans (61%), bankers acceptance bills (-9%),trust loans (8%), entrusted loans (17%), corporate bond financing (18%), foreign currency loans (3%), and non-financial equity financing (2%).TSF data uses an assumption of outstanding credit in Dec. 2001. Guide to the Markets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Equity Markets
0.80
0.90
Weights in MSCI All Country World Index% global market capitalization, float adjusted
-
Global Equity Market CorrelationsRolling 1-year correlations, 30 countries
0.30
0.400.50
0.60
0.70
UnitedStates48%
U.K.16%
U.K. 8%EmergingMarketsDec. 2013:
0.00
0.10
0.20
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Share of Global GDP
Japan8%
Emerging Market Share of MSCI ACWI
.
10%
12%
14%
16%
o
nal
OtherDeveloped
5%
Europe ex-U.K.16%
U.K. 3%
Share of ACWI earnings
Share of ACWI market cap
2%
4%
6%
Canada 2%Internati Markets
51%
UnitedStates19%
Japan 5%
54
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
Source: MSCI, IMF, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Share of global market capitalization is based on float adjusted MSCI data. Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) ascalculated by the IMF for 2013. Definition of emerging markets is based on MSCI and IMF data sources.Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Guide to the Markets U.S.Data as of 12/31/13.
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Emerging Market Equity: Composition
MSCI EM Index by SectorMSCI EM Index by Region
Africa/Mideast8%
Latin Americaex Brazil
7%Brazil12%
19%
Commodities21%
Tech16%
onsumer17%
Asia ex China& Korea
28%Korea
Europe10%
MSCI EM Country Index by Sector
Financials27%China
19%
14%33%
63%
19%17%
18%
12%
13% 10% 18% 22%31%
15%
60%
80%
100%
Other
Commodities
o
nal
22% 17%
34%22%
3%23%
11%
37%29%
19%
23%
38% 17%
20%
40%
Financials
Tech
ConsumerInternati
55
7%0%
Brazil Russia India China Mexico* Korea
Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Other is comprised of Healthcare, Industrials, Telecom, and Utilities sectors.*Mexican Telecom sector accounts for 19% of the countrys market capitalization. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Guide to the Markets U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Equity Valuations Developed Markets
Developed Market Countries
verage Expensive
relative to
world
Example
+5 Std Dev
+4 Std Dev
+6 Std Dev
dDevfromG
lobal
Expensive
relative to own
history
Cheap relative to
own history
Average
Current
+3 Std Dev
+2 Std Dev
+1 Std Dev
Average
-1 Std Dev
-2 Std Dev
-3 Std Dev
Current
Composite Current 10-year avg.
St
relative to
world
-4 Std Dev
-5 Std Dev
World(ACWI)
EAFEIndex
France U.K. Germany Australia Canada Japan Switzerland UnitedStates
. . . . . .
World (ACWI) 0.39 13.8 2.0 8.6 2.5% 13.1 2.0 7.4 2.5%EAFE Index -0.45 13.3 1.7 7.9 3.1% 12.6 1.7 6.6 3.1%
France -1.13 12.5 1.5 6.8 3.4% 11.3 1.6 5.8 3.3%
U.K. -0.53 12.3 1.9 8.5 3.6% 11.5 1.5 5.5 3.0%
Germany -0.51 12.5 1.7 7.2 2.7% 11.2 2.0 7.6 3.7%
o
nal
us ra a - . . . . . . . . .
Canada -0.02 14.2 1.9 8.0 2.9% 13.7 2.1 8.6 2.2%
Japan 0.66 14.1 1.4 7.8 1.7% 16.5 1.4 6.4 1.5%
Switzerland 0.82 14.6 2.5 9.7 3.0% 13.3 2.4 9.6 2.6%
United States 1.99 15.4 2.7 10.1 1.9% 14.0 2.5 8.6 1.9%Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Note: Each valuation index shows an e uall wei hted com osite of four metrics: rice to forward earnin s Fwd. P/E rice to current book P/B rice to last 12 months
Internati
56
. , ,cash flow (P/CF) and price to last 12 months dividends. Results are then normalized using means and average variability over the last 10 years. The grey bars represent
valuation index variability relative to that of the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI). See disclosures page at the end for metric definitions.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Global Equity Valuations Emerging Markets
Emerging Market Countries
erage
+5 Std Dev
+4 Std Dev
+6 Std Dev Expensive
relative to
world
Example
Devfrom
GlobalA+3 Std Dev
+2 Std Dev
+1 Std Dev
Average-1 Std Dev
-2 Std Dev
-3 Std Dev
Expensive
relative to own
history
Cheap relative to
own history
Average
Current
CurrentComposite
Current 10-year avg.
Std
-4 Std Dev
-5 Std Dev
relative to
worldWorld(ACWI)
EMIndex
Russia China BrazilThailand
Taiwan Korea SouthAfrica
IndonesiaIndia
Mexico
w . v. . w . v. .
World (ACWI) 0.39 13.8 2.0 8.6 2.5% 13.1 2.0 7.4 2.5%
EM Inde x -1.38 10.2 1.5 6.0 2.7% 11.1 1.9 6.2 2.7%
Russia -4.16 4.8 0.7 3.0 4.2% 7.9 1.4 4.9 2.1%
China -2.24 9.0 1.5 4.6 3.3% 12.0 2.1 7.2 2.6%
Brazil -1.72 10.0 1.4 6.8 3.6% 9.9 1.9 5.5 3.2%
Index
o
nal
Thailand -1.10 11.3 1.9 6.6 3.5% 10.7 2.0 6.7 3.6%Taiwan -0.30 14.2 1.8 7.1 3.0% 14.0 1.9 6.8 3.6%
Korea 0.59 8.6 1.1 5.1 1.0% 9.4 1.5 4.8 1.6%
South Africa 0.84 13.5 2.5 11.1 3.1% 11.2 2.4 8.5 3.2%Indonesia 0.98 12.4 3.0 10.3 2.8% 12.2 3.4 9.7 2.8%
India 2.98 14.1 2.7 12.5 1.5% 15.3 3.2 12.7 1.3%Internati
57
ex co . . . . . . . . .
Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Note: Each valuation index shows an equally weighted composite of four metrics: price to forward earnings (Fwd. P/E), price to current book (P/B), priceto last 12 months cash flow (P/CF) and price to last 12 months dividends. Results are then normalized using means and average variability over thelast 10 years. The grey bars represent valuation index variability relative to that of the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI). See disclosures page atthe end for metric definitions. Guide to the Markets U.S.Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Correlations and Volatility
U.S.
Large
Cap EAFE EME Bonds
Corp.
HY Munis Currcy. EMD Cmdty. REITs
Hedge
Funds
Eq
Market
Neutral*
Ann.
Volatility
. . . . . - . . - . - . . . . . .
EAFE 1.00 0.90 -0.16 0.77 - 0.03 -0.57 0.66 0.20 0.70 0.88 0.54 20%
EME 1.00 -0.03 0.81 0.10 -0.62 0.79 0.09 0.62 0.90 0.54 25%
Bonds 1.00 -0.02 0.84 0.02 0.35 -0.17 0.03 - 0.21 -0.33 4%
Corp. HY 1.00 0.19 -0.55 0.85 0.11 0.71 0.77 0.63 12%
Munis 1.00 -0.02 0.54 -0.26 0.09 - 0.04 -0.12 4%
Currencies 1.00 -0.48 -0.39 -0.47 -0.65 -0.67 6%
EMD 1.00 0.05 0.65 0.65 0.49 9%
Commodities 1.00 0.49 0.18 0.47 21%
REITs 1.00 0.57 0.61 26%
Source: Standard & Poors, FRB, Barclays Capital Inc., MSCI Inc., Credit Suisse/Tremont, NCREIF, DJ UBS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Indexes used Large Cap: S&P 500 Index; Currencies: Federal Reserve Trade Weighted Dollar; EAFE: MSCI EAFE; EME: MSCI EmergingMarkets; Bonds: Barclays Capital Aggregate; Corp HY: Barclays Capital Corporate High Yield; EMD: Barclays Capital Emerging Market; Cmdty.:s
etClass
Hedge Funds 1.00 0.64 8%
Eq Market Neutral* 1.00 14%
59
DJ UBS Commodity Index; Real Estate: NAREIT Equity REIT Index; Hedge Funds: CS/Tremont Multi-Strategy Index; Equity Market Neutral:CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index. *Market Neutral returns include estimates found in disclosures.
All correlation coefficients and annualized volatility calculated based on quarterly total return data for period 12/31/03 to 12/31/13.
This chart is for illustrative purposes only. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data as of 12/31/13.
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Mutual Fund Flows
Billions, USD AUM YTD 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998
Domestic E uit 5 592 28 156 132 81 29 149 65 0 18 101 120 26 55 261 176 149
Fund Flows
World Equity 1,993 131 3 4 58 28 (80) 139 149 106 71 24 (3) (22) 53 11 8
Taxable Bond 2,824 (10) 254 137 2 24 3 10 21 98 45 27 5 40 125 76 (36) 8 59
Tax-exempt Bond 510 (48) 50 (12) 11 69 8 11 15 5 (15) (7) 17 11 (14) (12) 15
Hybrid 1,222 73 46 29 29 12 (25) 41 18 37 48 38 8 9 (36) (14) 10
1 400
$1,600 $80
Difference In Flows Into Stock and Bond FundsBillions, USD, U.S. and international funds, monthly
Equity flows exceeded bond flows
Cumulative Flows Into Stock & Bond FundsBillions, USD, includes both mutual funds and ETFs
Nov 13: $1,346 billion into bond fundsand fixed income ETFs since 07
,
$800
$1,000
$1,200
,
$0
$20
$40
.
Nov. 13: $498 billion
$0
$200
$400
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13-$60
-$40
-$20
Feb '09 Dec '09 Oct '10 Au '11 Jun '12 A r '13setClass Bonds
Stocks
equity ETFs since 07
61
Source: Investment Company Institute, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Data include flows through November 2013 and exclude ETFs except for the bottom left chart. ICI data are subject to periodic revisions. World
equity flows are inclusive of emerging market, global equity and regional equity flows. Hybrid flows include asset allocation, balanced fund,
flexible portfolio and mixed income flows.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Yield Alternatives: Domestic and Global
S&P 500 Total Return: Dividends vs. Capital AppreciationAverage annualized returns Capital Appreciation
Dividends20%
4.7% 5.4% 6.0% 5.1%3.3% 4.2% 4.4% 2.5%
1.8%4.0%
13.9%
3.0%
13.6%
4.4%
1.6%
12.6% 15.3%
-2.7%
5.8%
0%
5%
10%
Equity Dividend Yields REIT Yields
- .
-10%
-5%
1926 - 1929 1930's 1940's 1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 1926 to 2013
,10-year government
bond yield10-year government
bond yield
,
4.2%
3.2%
3.5%
2.8% 2.9%
3%
4%
5%
4.1%
5.8% 5.8% 5.9%
5.6%
4.4%
4%
5%
6%
7%
setClass
1.9%
.
1.7%
1%
2%
3.3% .
1%
2%
3%
62
Source: (Top chart) Standard & Poors, Ibbotson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom left) FactSet, NAREIT, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Dividend vs. capital appreciation returns are through 12/31/12. Yields shown are that of the appropriate FTSE NAREIT REIT index, which excludes
property development companies. (Bottom right) FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Yields shown are that of the appropriate MSCI
index. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
As
U. S. Aus tralia F rance U .K. Sw it zerland C anada ACWI Japan U .S. Aus tralia Singapore Canada France Japan Global U .K.
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Global Commodities
450
Commodity PricesWeekly index prices rebased to 100
Precious Metals
Gold Prices$ / oz
$3,000
350
400
Industrial Metals $1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500 Dec. 2013:$1,204.50
,
Gold
250
300
Commodit Prices and Inflation
'75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10$0
$500
4%
6%
8%
40%
60%
80%
150
200 Energy
Grains
Year-over-year % chg.DJ-UBS Commodity Index
(Y/Y % chg.)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
50
100
setClass
Livestock
Headline CPI(Y/Y % chg.)
63
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
-6% -60%'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Source: Dow Jones/UBS, EcoWin, BLS, U.S. Department of Energy, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI adjusted gold values are calculatedusing monthly averages of gold spot prices divided by the CPI value for that month. CPI is rebased to 100 at the end of the chart. Returns based onnominal prices. Commodity prices represented by the appropriate DJ/UBS Commodity sub-index. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
As
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Historical Returns by Holding Period
60%Annual total returns, 1950 2013Range of Stock, Bond and Blended Total Returns
Annual Avg. Growth of $100,000
51%
43%
30%
40%
50%
50/50 Portfolio 9.0% $564,491
Bonds 6.1% $327,240
Stocks 11.1% $827,444
o a e urn over 20 years
28%
23% 21% 19%16% 17% 18%
12% 14%10%
20%
-8%
-15%
-2% -2% 1%-1% 1%
2%
6%
1%
5%
-
-10%
0%
Stocks
-37%
-40%
-30%
1- r. 5- r. 10- r. 20- r.setClass 50/50 Portfolio
Bonds
64
rolling rolling rollingAs
Sources: Barclays Capital, FactSet, Robert Shiller, Strategas/Ibbotson, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Returns shown are based on calendar year returns from 1950 to 2013. Growth of $100,000 is based on annual average total returns from1950-2013. Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Diversification and the Average Investor
Equity Mkt. Neutral
(Top) Indexes and weights of thetraditional portfolio are as follows:U.S. Stocks: 55% S&P 500; U.S.Bonds: 30% Barclays CapitalAggregate; International Stocks: 15%MSCI EAFE. Portfolio with 25% in
Traditional Portfolio More Diversified Portfolio
Maximizing the Power of Diversification (1994 2012)
8%8%
8%
4%
26% REIT
S&P 500Russell 2000
55%
30% S&P 500
MSCI EAFE
Barclays Agg.
. .22.2% S&P 500, 8.8% Russell 2000;International Stocks: 4.4% MSCI EM,13.2% MSCI EAFE; U.S. Bonds:26.5% Barclays Capital Aggregate;Alternatives: 8.3% CS/Tremont EquityMarket Neutral: 8.3%, DJ/UBSCommodities: 8.3% NAREIT EquityREIT Index. Return and standard
9%
MSCI EM
Barclays Agg.
deviation calculated usingMorningstar Direct.
Charts are shown for illustrativepurposes only. Past performance isnot indicative of future returns.Diversification does not guarantee
investment returns and does noteliminate risk of loss. Data are as ofReturn: 7.43%Standard Deviation: 10.80% Return: 7.72%Standard Deviation: 9.87%
20-year Annualized Returns by Asset Class (1993 2012)
. . .J.P. Morgan Asset Management.(Bottom) Indexes used are as follows:REITS: NAREIT Equity REIT Index,EAFE: MSCI EAFE, Oil: WTI Index,Bonds: Barclays Capital U.S.Aggregate Index, Homes: mediansale price of existing single-familyhomes, Gold: USD/troy oz, Inflation:
11.2%
8.4% 8.2% 8.1%
10%
12%
CPI. Average asset allocation investorreturn is based on an analysis byDalbar Inc., which utilizes the net ofaggregate mutual fund sales,redemptions and exchanges eachmonth as a measure of investorbehavior. Returns are annualized(and total return where applicable)
-setClass 6.5% 6.3%
2.7% 2.5% 2.3%
4%
6%
8%
65
-ending 12/31/12 to match Dalbars
most recent analysis.As
0%
2%
REITs Gold S&P 500 Oil EAFE Bonds Homes Inflation AverageInvestor
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Cash Accounts
$8,000
$10,000 $ Billions
Weight in
Money
Supply
Money Supply
Component
Annual Income Generated by $100,000 Investment in a 6-month CD
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000 M2-M1 8,323 77.1%
Retail MMMFs 645 6.0%2013*:$270
,
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10$0 Savings deposits 7,138 66.1%
Small time deposits 540 5.0%6-month CD rate vs. Core CPICash AccountsCash as a % of Total Household Financial Assets24% Mar. 09 S&P 500 low
Institutional MMMFs 1,794 16.6%
677 6.3%Cash in IRA & Keogh
accounts16%
20%
c . ow
Total 10,793 100.0%
setClass
Source: Federal Reserve, St. Louis Fed, Bankrate.com, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.All cash measures obtained from the Federal Reserve are seasonally adjusted monthly numbers. All numbers are in billions of U.S. dollars.
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
12%
66
As ma - enom na on me epos s are ose ssue n amoun s o ess an , . an eog accoun a ances a commerc a an s an r ns u ons are su rac e
from small time deposits. Annual income is for illustrative purposes and is calculated based on the 6-month CD yield on average during each year and $100,000 invested.
*2013 average income is through June 2013. IRA and Keogh account balances at money market mutual funds are subtracted from retail money funds.Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results.
Guide to the Markets U.S.
Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Corporate DB Plans and Endowments
100%
110%$2.5Funded Status (%)
Defined Benefit Plans: Russell 3000 CompaniesAsset Allocation: Corporate DB Plans vs. Endowments
Endowments Trillions ($)
70%
80%
90%
$1.5
$2.0
Assets ($)
48.0%
9.0%
27.0%
Fixed Income
Equities
Liabilities ($)
50%
60%
$1.0'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Est.
Pension Return Assumptions: S&P 500 companies
4.0%
38.0%
20.1%Hedge Funds
27%29%
20%20%
34%
20%
30%
40%
anies
2013: Average 7.3%
1999: Average 9.2%
2.0%
2.0%
17.7%
.
Real Estate
Private Equity
0% 1% 1% 1%
5%
9%7%
10%
6%
12%13%
3%0% 0% 0%
0%
10%
< 6% 6 to 6.5 to 7 to 7.5 to 8 to 8.5 to 9 to 9.5 to > 10%
%o
fCom
setClass
% of total4.0%