(114283684) Poland Country Report

8/13/2019 (114283684) Poland Country Report

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BTI 2012 | Poland Country Report

Status Index 1-10 9.05

# 6 of 128

Political Transformation 1-10 920 ! 8 of 128??

"conomic Transformation 1-10 889 ! 6 of 128

Management Index 1-10 6.7

9

# 1# of 128

scale$ 1 %lo&est' to 10 %(i)(est' score ran* trend

T(is report is part of t(e Bertelsmann +tiftun),sTransformation Inde %BTI'

2012 T(e BTI is a )lo.al assessment of transition

processes in &(ic( t(e state of democracy and mar*et

economy as &ell as t(e /uality of political mana)ement

in 128 transformation and deelopin) countries are

ealuated

ore on t(e BTI at (ttp$&&&.ti-pro3ector)

Please cite as follo&s$ Bertelsmann +tiftun)4 BTI 2012 5Poland Country

Report 7terslo($ Bertelsmann
http://www.bti-project.org/http://www.bti-project.org/http://www.bti-project.org/http://www.bti-project.org/


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+tiftun)4 2012

2012 Bertelsmann +tiftun)47terslo(


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BTI 2012 | Poland4

Key Indicators

Population mn 38 :I 0.8 :P pc ; 197

Pop )ro&t(1 < 0 :I ran* of 18= 39 ini Inde 3

>ife epectancy year 7 ?@ "ducation 0.8 Poerty# < !2

?r.an < 61 ender 0.1 Aid per ; "

+ources$ T(e orld Ban*4 orld :eelopment Indicators 2011 | ?@:P4 uman :eelopment Report 2011 ootnotes$

%1' Aera)e annual )ro&t( rate %2' ender Ine/uality Inde %II' %#' Percenta)e of population liin) on less t(an ;2 aday

"ecutie +ummary

The 2009 2011 period was marked by several major features. The government is omposed of a

two!party oalition reated after the 200" parliamentary eletion. #t onsists of $ivi %latform

&%'( and %olish %eople)s %arty &%*+(, the latter learly being the junior partner in the oalition.

The years under srutiny an be divided roughly into two parts- The period prior to the 10 pril2010 plane rash in whih %olish %resident +eh /ayski was killed near *molensk,, and theperiod whih followed it. otwithstanding the rash itself and the dire onse3uenes for %olish

politis &doens of the %olish politial elite lost their lives(, the most important onse3uene ofthe tragedy was the enormous hallenge the state faed just to ontinue funtioning in

aordane with onstitutional rules. This stern test has been passed suessfully, in partiular in

the immediate aftermath of the aident. The long!term effets are less positive. The une 2010

presidential eletion revealed the emergene of a deep division in %olish soiety between theamps of the two main politial parties, %' and +aw and ustie %arty &%i*.( 5owever, the main

turn for the worst happened after the eletion. 6hen the %i* andidate, aroslaw /ayski, lost

the eletion he immediately began to 3uestion the legitimay of the eleted president 7ronislaw/omorowski and embarked on a very aggressive politial ampaign foused almost

e8lusively on the plane rash. %olish politis beame e8tremely emotional and void of poliy

debate. %rime inister Tusk and the president himself were aused not only of beingresponsible for the rash, but also of state treason and :ollaboration with %utin; to bring about

the tragedy.

7efore the rash, %olish politis were far from perfet in terms of organiational and logistial

merits. The late president, +eh /ayski, has been e8tremely partisan in his support of his twinbrother)s party, %i*. The ohabitation between him and the %'!led government was a lassial

e8ample of a dysfuntional semi!presidential system deadloks, slowing down the legislativeproess, unneessary onflits, vetoes, and blakmailing with vetoes to blok poliy


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BTI 2012 | Polandnion to these developments were diffiult to assess. These aspetsprodued a legay of unsolved politial onflits between those politial ators who partiipatedand those who abstained from the :deal; with the nien ?@gime. #t also left unlearinstitutional regulations in the reformed onstitution, and these affeted the proess ofonsolidating demoray in %oland in the years that followed.

The starting point for the transformation an be traed bak to the mid!19"0s with theestablishment of an underground opposition that ultimately led to the reation of the *olidarity

movement in 19A0. *olidarity was initially an independent trade union that during its first periodof e8istene &19A0 19A1( gradually transformed into a soial movement and then into national

liberation movement. The introdution of martial law on 1B Ceember 19A1 interrupted theproess for a few years, but it had already beome lear by 19AD that the aruelski regime was

seeking some kind of new opening and was willing to reognie part of the opposition as a defato and de jure soial ator. #n 19AA, round!table talks were planned for early 19A9, and these

were initially envisaged as a way to seure the power of the ruling elite by giving in to somedemands of the opposition and by introduing some eonomi reforms. The round!table talks,

however, led to a muh more ambitious projet, and semi!free eletions were sheduled for une

19A9 whih guaranteed Dnited 6orkers) %arty &%F%?( and theirsatellite allies, >nited %easants) %arty &F*+( and Cemorati %arty &%C(. *ome further hanges to

the onstitution were also tabled, suh as the introdution of a state president and a seond

hamber, the *enate. The outome of the eletion ame as a real surprise to many, beause*olidarity managed to win its entire share of seats and the majority of seats in the freely eletedseond hamber, the *enate. The overall message of the eletion results was that the ruling

ommunist party had no politial legitimay whatsoever. s a onse3uene, prolongednegotiations in the summer of 19A9 were followed by establishment of the first non!ommunist

government under the premiership of Tadeus aowieki, and the real transformation towardsdemoray and market eonomy was launhed.

#t is important to remember that the round!table negotiations were a very signifiant suessdemonstrating the ability of %oles to negotiate the transition without bloodshed. 7ut, as

mentioned above, the negotiated transition has had a lasting imprint on politial debates in%oland. 'n the one hand, left!wing and liberal representatives in the politial spetrum onsider

the round!table negotiations and their outome to be historially important and suessful


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BTI 2012 | PolandD

ahievements, while on the other hand, the right!wing treat it as a politial mistake &moderateversion( or even as treason &e8tremist version(.

#n addition to this politial development, %olish eonomi reforms were launhed as early as fall

19A9. #t beame known as a :shok therapy; reform and was assoiated with the name of thethen inister of Ginane +esek 7alerowi. The fortunes of the eonomi hanges in %olandare as ompliated as the politial ones. Taking a very broad perspetive and onentrating on themaroeonomi indiators alone, it is obvious that %oland ompared to all other $entral and=astern =uropean ountries represents a suess story. Curing the two deades sine theirimplementation, the %olish eonomi reforms allowed for almost a doubling of the overall HC%

&as of 2011, HC% stands at about 190E of the 19A9 level(. #t has to be emphasied that this is dueto both developments in the 1990s and to %oland)s status as an =.>. member.

%oland entered the => in ay 2004, after a referendum held in une 200B in whih ""E of theadult population voted in favor of joining => &with a turnout of appro8imately partner, e8ept for the period of the %i* governmentbetween 200< and 200". fter the 2009 eletions to the =uropean parliament ery 7uekbeame the president of the =uropean %arliament and %oland is now preparing to take

responsibility for the => presideny from summer 2011 onwards.

Cespite %oland)s ahievements in eonomi development and towards international integration,

the soiopolitial division in the ountry remains. #n 200


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BTI 2012 | Poland"

T(e BTI com.ines tet analysis and numerical assessments T(e score for eac(

/uestion is proided .elo& its respectie title T(e scale ran)es from 10 %.est'to

1 %&orst'

Transformation +tatus

I Political Transformation

1 StatenessDuestion

+core

+aw and order in aordane with fundamental onstitutional provisions isguaranteed in the territory of the ?epubli of %oland. There are no signs of any

ompetition for the state)s monopoly on the use of power and fore again, inaordane with onstitutional rules. The ountry is religiously and ethnially3uite homogeneous. =thni %oles onstitute about 9"E of the population. oenlaves of irredenta or mafias e8ist.

1onopoly on

t(e use of

force

10

The majority of %olish itiens identify with the %olish state &as do part of those

living abroad( and observe the onstitutional rules. s elsewhere in demoraies,there is a debate on the urrent, :modern; patriotism. *ome, mainly on the right,

offers a nationalisti, twentieth!entury narrative, whereas the left and the liberals

draw on more ontemporary ideas linked to =uropeaniation of %oland. The

majority of ethni minorities identifies with the %olish state, onstitution and%olish itienship. The rest, who in terms of absolute numbers represent a real

minority, raise issues of autonomy and loal, regional or ethni identities &e.g.,?uh utonomii Klaska, the ovement for the utonomy of *ilesia &?*((, but

even they have reently onfined themselves to rather more moderate demandsfor more self!government and deentraliation. 'ffiially reognied national

minorities have speial rights onerning their politial representation in the

parliament. Gor e8ample, their parties do not have to lear the


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BTI 2012 | PolandA

The onstitutional provisions onerning the seularity of the %olish state are

pretty lear, even aounting for the 199B onordat. evertheless, everydaypratie breaks with these provisions. ost problemati is the issue of religious

instrution at publi shools. #t was initially intended that non!$atholi hildrenwould attend :ethis; lasses instead of religious instrution lasses, but thisseular alternative never ame about. The influene of the %olish $atholi $hurhon ontemporary

@o interference

of reli)ious

do)mas

8

%olish politis is enormous, to the e8tent that during the 2010 presidential

eletion, most priests and bishops took sides in the politial ompetition.They learly favored one of the andidates &/ayski( as they had

previous eletions, sometimes more and sometimes less e8pliitly. #n 2009,

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BTI 2012 | Poland9

=leted politiians have effetive power to govern. =8ternal ators, business elites

and the military do not e8erise veto powers. The $atholi $hurh does not

e8erise a veto power in its proper sense, but it ertainly has far too muh

influene on several poliy domains in whih its) impat is far from onsultative.Gor e8ample, in reality it has a profound influene on seleted areas of health,

welfare and eduation poliy.

"ffecti0e po&er

to )oern

10

The onstitutional provisions guaranteeing assoiation and assembly freedom are

unrestrited and pratied by both individuals and assoiations. The government

does not restrit freedom of assoiation. The freedom of e8pression is seured. o

Association

assem.ly ri)(ts

10


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BTI 2012 | Poland11

The judiiary is institutionally and funtionally differentiatedL it is independent of

the unonstitutional intervention of politial fores. 5owever, it is more

problemati to laim that it is free from orruption. oreover, it is unlear whether

it is ompletely independent from the $atholi $hurh)s influene. The main flawof the %olish judiiary is the everyday funtioning of the ourt system obsolete

regulations, sluggishness and ineffetiveness are fators in its evaluation. There areseveral important legal institutions proteting the rule of law in %oland, whih

operate fairly smoothly, like the $onstitutional Tribunal, and the *upreme $ourt,whih effetively ontrols the government and the legislative branh. #n arh

Independ

ent

3udiciary

9


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BTI 2012 | Poland12

2010, the funtions of the minister of justie and publi proseutor!general werefinally separated.

%oland has a full system of legal provisions in plae to fight offie abuse by thosein power, but in reality it is e8tremely rare for politiians to be proseuted and

sentened. 'ffenders are more likely to lose a lurative position of influene thanto end up in jail. s a rule, offieholders do get proseuted for abuses of publi

position or violations of law, but only if there is strong publi sentiment on the

matter, and the media :assists.; 5owever, %oland has sophistiated legislation

onerning orruption, a ode of ondut for ivil servants and mandatory asset

delarations for holders of publi offie. #n 200D, the %i* government founded aspeial nti!orruption 7ureau &$entralne 7iuro ntykorupyjne, $7(, but itfre3uently abused its powers in order to disredit politial ompetitors. #n

ovember 200", the %' government appointed a member of Transpareny

#nternational, the %' member of parliament ulia %itera, as the government)s

plenipotentiary for the struggle against orruption. major debate on theeffetiveness of the legal mehanisms and the way lobbying is dealt with in %oland

ourred when $7 aused some high!ranking %' members of giving in to theillegal demands of representatives of the gambling industry in order to impede a

plan to raise e8isting ta8es on gambling mahines. %rime inister

Tusk immediately dismissed the two ministers involved but also the $7diretor arius /aminski. The latter was aused of overstepping his

ompetenies and instrumentaliing the affair for %i* interests. parliamentary

ommittee of investigation was established and a disussion on hanging the lawon lobbying developed.

Prosecution

of office

a.use

8


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BTI 2012 | Poland1B

Ce jure there are no legal restritions on ivil rightsL de fato the protetion of ivil

rights against state and non!state ators works pretty effetively. #nfringements

our, but very rarely. Torture and ruelty never happen in reality. 5owever, in

2009 it beame evident that the $# had established seret torture prisons at anairbase in %oland. %olish authorities undertook a very sinere investigation but itnever fully revealed to what e8tent %olish offiials tolerated or even supported theillegal praties of the $#.

The justie system)s main shortoming is that the institutions established to defenditiens and punish violators are ineffetive and sluggish. The situation has

improved dramatially sine the %i*!led government was ousted from offie. Their

violations of some ivil rights &of homose8uals in partiular( were obvious. 'n the

other hand, a debate onerning pedophiles attrated publi attention as %rime

inister Tusk verbally attaked them and proposed a law allowing the hemialastration of onvited pedophiles, whih passed parliament in fall 2009.

Ci0il ri)(ts

10

Sta+i%ity o( ,emocratic Institutions

The 2009 2010 period was marked by a lear improvement in the way

demorati institutions funtion in %oland, even aounting for a short period ofe8tremely unooperative :ohabitation; between the %' government and

%resident +eh /aynski. %olitial deisions are prepared and implemented inaordane with legitimate proedures and by appropriate authorities. The

effetiveness of the major demorati institutions was put to the test after the 10pril 2010 plane rash, when the president of the republi, most of the members

of the armed!fores high ommand, deputy hairs of the parliament and manymembers of parliament died. #n these unusual and dramati irumstanes,

%oland)s demorati institutions performed their funtions smoothly andeffiiently. The one shortoming was the slowness and at times politiiation

Performance

of

democratic

institutions

10


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BTI 2012 | Poland14

lmost all important politial ators observe the onstitution and behave in

aordane with demorati rules. There is, however, one lear e8eption, the

main opposition party %i* and its leader /ayski. umerous e8amples lead to

the onlusion that this party is beoming a lassial anti!systemi party. Thepubli disourse of its leader, who laims %oland has yet to regain its

independene or that it is a :Herman?ussian ondominium; and his old!shouldering of the demoratially eleted president, /omorowski, are only few

e8amples of violations of the demorati spirit and the rules of the game.oreover, notables in the %olish $atholi $hurh make far too many publi

interventions revealing their distaste for liberal!demorati values. 7oth

phenomena depreiate the overall sore of the ommitment to demorati

institutions in %oland by its main politial and soial ators.

Commitment

to

democratic

institutions9

5 $o%itica% and Socia% Integration

The %olish party system is both ideologially biased and far from stable, with

shallow roots in soiety. #n 2009 2010 there were no parliamentary eletions,but, between the 200< and 200" eletions, eletoral volatility amounted to almost

2


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BTI 2012 | Poland1*( but its oalition partner %*+ opposes these attempts. %overty

among the elderly is among the lowest in =>.

+ocial safety nets

9

The urrent %'!led government has launhed several poliies aimed at ahieving

e3uality of opportunity. There are also many institutions that work to redue

soial ine3ualities. lmost all itiens have e3ual aess to eduation and publioffie. #lliteray is none8istent. %roblems remain with e3ual aess to well!paid

jobs women earn barely three 3uarters of men)s earnings. Iiolene againstwomen, though dereasing, remains a pretty widespread problem. 'n the other

hand, the ratio of female to male enrollment at tertiary level is about 140 in 2009.The new government has reestablished the ageny for gender e3uality, whih was

dissolved by the %i* government, but e8perts omplain that this offie laksautonomy. The treatment of homose8uals and other minorities has improved

signifiantly sine the oming to power of %'. Cespite these improvements,%oland has not yet signed the =.>. anti!disrimination diretive and was thus

referred to the =uropean $ourt of ustie in ay 2009 and ay 2010. #n 'tober2010, the *ejm enated a law on e3ual treatment, whih was sent to the *enate for

disussion.

"/ual opportunity

8

11 conomic $er(ormance

There were positive as well as negative symptoms in %oland)s eonomy during

the period under review. HC% growth was the highest of any =.>. ountry in 2009

at

Hutput stren)t(

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1."E &soure- =urostat( and in 2010 was one of the highest at B.AE &soureL

=urostat(. The trade balane is relatively favorableL the balane of payments isnegative, but the defiit is muh lower than the => average. %ubli debt again,relatively low ompared to other =.>. ountries nevertheless is up from 4"E in

200A to about &soures differ( . average but dereasing from about

4.0E in 2009 to about 2."E in 2010 &=7?C- 4.BE for 100A, B.AE for 2009 and

2.4E for 2010(. oreover the rate of employment is fairly low in %oland at about


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Curing the period under review, the urrent Tusk government has hanged theprimary eduation system, lowering the shool entry age from seven to si8.

*eondary eduation has been e8tended for one year and the first improvementsin

"ducation

policy RG:

8


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international assessments are visible. t university level more privatiation,

effiieny and ommerialiation is pratied. The researh and tehnologysetor still lags behind most =.>. ountries. #nstitutions of eduation, ?NCare numerous and signifiant in publi life, although unfortunately somewhat

inonsistent, with visible defiits in ?NC in partiular. #nvestment ineduation and training is rather low at 4.9E of HC% in 200", as is investmentin ?NC at .DAE of HC% in 2009 &soure- =urostat(. #n 200A the governmentinitiated a reform to improve the siene and eduation system by 201. membership has fostered the strutural framework forgovernmental ativities. 'n the other hand, the reent world eonomi andfinanial risis has had a dire effet on the ountry)s eonomy and state finanes.

#n 2010 %oland also suffered a natural disaster when half the ountry was flooded

+tructu

ral

constra

ints

2

%oland)s traditionally strong ivil soiety dates from the ommunist period,

although only in an informal :underground; form. $ompared to the deeply rooted

funtions of ivil soiety in established demoraies, traditions of formalivil soiety are relatively moderate. The number of H's is fairly low in

%oland, as is engagement in publi affairs in omparison to 6estern =urope. #nthe period under srutiny, %olish ivil soiety ativities in H's inreased in

omparison to previous years. #n 2010, 2AE of the adult population spent free

time on ativities for at least one H'. The same indiator for 199A 200A

period varied between20E and 24 E &see- $7'* /omunikat, :ktywnos %olakOw w organiajah

obywatelskih w latah 199A 2010;, 7*J1DJ2010(. This phenomenon oe8istswith high level of alienation from politis, oupled with low trust in politial

institutions and parties in partiular. ?eent loal and =uropean %arliamenteletions indiate a growth of appro8imately


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=thni onflit does not e8ist within %oland. Ceep politial divides date bak to

the eletion of 200


25/30

The urrent Tusk government demonstrated a faility for omple8 learning as itwas operated fle8ibly and able to hange some poliies while implementing

innovative ones. This applies mainly to infrastruture &roads(, health are and thepension system. The learning proess is visible in the way the government uses

=.>. funds. Hovernmental agenies and ministries rapidly learned thenew proedures stipulated by =>. #n many fields the government has

unveiled innovative and fle8ible approahes to poliy implementation.

Policy learnin)

8

15 'esource ((iciency

Thus far the %' government has made relatively effiient use of its administrative

personnel. There are no reports or indiations of unjustified dismissals orJandpolitially motivated reruitment. There are, however, reports of unjustifiably

high

"fficient use

of assets

8

e8penditures, espeially at loal administrative level. $ompetitive open

reruitment is the norm for the majority of publi positions.

The %olish administration)s effiieny in using budget resoures has beentroubled sine the finanial risis- %ubli debt has inreased &4"E of HC% in

200A,


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There are several enters within the government that propose and implementoften ontraditory poliies. The main a8is of onfliting poliies lies

between the ministry of finane and the ministry of labor and soial poliy. lot of improvement is also needed in oordination among the ministry of

finane and ministry of regional development. *ometimes onfliting poliy ideasarise beause there is a speial advisory board for the prime minister with a

hairperson who is an influential figure in strategi planning ihal 7oni.

Curing the reviewed period, Tthe urrent Tusk government is was also de fato a

oalition, and naturally the liberal!right %' hads different poliy priorities to the%*+. otwithstanding these shortomings, so far the government has managed to

oordinate its poliies in a fairly oherent way, avoiding open onflits andJordelays. #t also onsults with the main soial partners and H's. Gor e8ample, the

state budget is taken to onsultation with the trade unions and employers)

assoiations before being passed in the parliament.

Policy

coordina

tion

8

The following integrity mehanisms e8ist and funtion- uditing of state

spending, regulation of party finane, itien and media aess to information,

aountability of offieholders, a transparent publi prourement system.oreover, a speial institution, the $entral nti!orruption 7ureau &$7( was

established in 200D to prevent orruption in the publi and private setors. Theresults are so far mi8ed,

Anti-

corruption

policy

=

however. $omparative indiators show orruption is still one of %oland)s majorproblems. #n addition, during an affair involving politiians lobbied by the

gambling industry, a onflit between $7 and the plenipotentiary ourred andH's ritiied the latter for being too passive in the proess of drafting a new

law on lobbying.

16 onsensus"

ost %olish politial parties and other important publi ators agree ondemorati priniples and a market eonomy. #n pratie, however, the mainopposition party, %i* learly favors muh more politial influene on theeonomy and is definitely in favor of a strong state at the e8pense of ivil soiety.?eent ations &following the plane rash in *molensk in 2010( have highlightedits entraliation tendenies and disrespet for liberal demorati norms and

Consensus on )oals

9


27/30

Gollowing the removal of two populist and 8enophobi parties, the *amoobronaand +eague of %olish Gamilies &+%?(, from parliament in the 200" eletions, it

seemed for a short time that anti!demorati fores, however moderate, had beenremoved from %olish politial life. >nfortunately, in 2009J2010 %oles witnessed a

growing anti!demorati mood reated by %i* &disrespet for demoratiinstitutions, laims that %oland is :not a free ountry,; alling %rime

inister Tusk a :traitor,; disregard for the demoratially eleted president, to

name just a few(. Gortunately %i* is the only problemati ase in the %olish

politial arena. %i* learly aims to destabilie the ountry and its institutions.

There is another potent publi ator whose anti!demorati redentials are

nothing new- The %olish $atholi $hurh. ?eently some $atholi bishopsdeided to atively influene the ountry)s politis to the detriment of the3uality of demoray. The %olish $atholi $hurh is divided on this issue, but thehurh representatives openly 3uestioning the merits of liberal demoray are

numerous enough &and influential enough( to make their ativities as problemati.

Anti-

democratic

actors

8

Thus far, %oland)s problems lie in deep soiopolitial divisions whih may soonturn into froen leavages. The %' politial leadership did start their

parliamentary and governmental term with an effort to redue the tensions within

%olish soiety and politis that were elevated under the %i* government. :Trust

offensive; was one of the most fre3uently 3uoted slogans and real poliyobjetives of the %' government. oreover, the hief slogan in the

/omorowski)s presidential ampaign was :building reoniliation.; The mainopposition party, %i* not only took no ation to prevent inreasing divisions, but

even embarked on many ations that enhaned tensions, divisions andpolariation.

Clea0a)e

conflict

mana)e

ment

8

%olish politis were devoid of poliy ontent. #n the seond half of 2010, the %i*)s

attak on the legitimay of the eletions was a lear assault on the demoratirules of the game, the demoratially eleted government and the president. The

intensity of the politial onflit e8eeded by far everything that %oles had been

austomed to in the last two deades.

#n onlusion- the government has limited possibilities to ameliorate the situationas the opposition party is simply unooperative and refuses to ollaborate.


28/30

The %olish politial leadership assigns an important role to ivil soiety ators indeliberating and determining poliies. lmost all reform proposals thus far

introdued by the %' government, be they in the health setor, siene, loalpoliies or eonomi matters, have been onsulted in advane with major interest

groups. 5owever, the day!to!day involvement of interest organiations inthe proess of bill drafting or poliy oneptualiation before the parliamentary

stage is often merely formalisti, due to the limited meritorati ompetenes of

many of the soial organiations. oreover, some parliamentary ommittee

negotiations are often dominated by few speial interests.

Ci0il

society

participa

tion

8

The %olish politial leadership has pursued reoniliation of histori ats of

injustie, but puts less emphasis on this topi that the previous %i* government.The %' government supports the e8isting regulations under whih offiials who

assume ertain publi posts must delare whether they ollaborated with seret

polie or intelligene servies in the ommunist past. $andidates for offie are not

punished nor &de jure( do their hanes for being nominated derease if theyadmit ollaboration. The politial leadership also supports the ativities of the

#nstitute of ational emory %(, whih has made ommunist seret serviefiles aessible to itiens sine 2000. s this institution was highly

instrumentalied during the %i*!government, the Tusk government has tried toreform it to allow more aess to the arhives and to make it less politiied.

fter the amendment was passed, %i* referred it to the onstitutional tribunal.

Reconciliation

9

17 Internationa% oo&eration

The politial leadership of %oland makes well!foused use of international aid in

order to implement its long!term development strategy. #nternational aid means=.>. strutural funds. The amount of finanial assistane oming from the =.>.

strutural funds has grown enormously sine %oland)s aession. *o far, however,the effetive utiliation of the funds available is not perfet.

"ffecti0e use

of support

9

The urrent %'!led government was onsidered redible and reliable by itsinternational ommunity partners. 'ne of the urrent government)s major goals

was regaining this international redibility, as the previous %i* government had

behaved

Credi.ility

9


29/30

unooperatively and made many enemies aross =urope in its

international relations. %oland)s position in => was enhaned by the fat that%oland is to assume =.>. presideny in uly 2011 and two %olish politiians

have assumed important positions in =.>. strutures. ery 7uek is urrently

the president of the =uropean %arliament, and anus +ewandowski is the

=uropean $ommissioner for Ginanial %rogramming and 7udget one of the

most influential positions in the =>. oreover, %oland is an initiator of

and played a key role in the =astern %artnership, an =.>. projet aimed at

improving politial and eonomi relations with the => of si8 post!*oviet

states, some of them of strategi importane- >kraine, 7elarus,

oldova, erbaijan, rmenia and Heorgia. #n terms of eonomy,%oland seems to be a redible partner both within the =>, 6T' and globally.

This was further emented during the eonomi risis when %oland pretty

effetively avoided reession and enjoyed one of the highest => HC%growths in

reent years as well as during the whole period sine the transformation.

The %' government atively and suessfully engages in international

relations. #t partiularly fouses on regional ooperation with eastern

neighbors +ithuania, 7elarus and >kraine. #n order to integrate these

ountries as well as the $auasian republis with =urope, %oland, togetherwith *weden, initiated the =astern %artnership and promotes >kraine)s =>

membership prospets.

%oland has improved its relations with Hermany, its main eonomi andpolitial partner, under the Tusk administration. $ooperation with Hermany

and Grane in the framework of the :6eimar Triangle; was revived. The

ativities of the 6eimar Triangle were suppressed during the previous %i*

government at the behest of the then president +eh /ayski. %oland)s

relationship with ?ussia has also been high on %rime inister Tusk)s agenda.The %olish?ussian Hroup for Ciffiult #ssues has been very ative in the

period under review. The group is omposed of %olish and ?ussian e8perts

and sientists designated by both ountries to solve ompliated historial

and ontemporary problems. The group serves as an advisory body to both

governments. The visits of top politiians of both ountries have intensified.

%rime inister %utin took part in the seventieth anniversary

ommemorations of the Herman attak on %oland in 19B9, as well as

the eremonies marking the seventieth anniversary of the /atyn massare.

'n both oasions %utin met %rime inister Tusk. fter the *molensk rash parado8ially and ironially relations between %oland and ?ussia

improved even further. 5owever, the worsened again after ?ussia published

its report on the auses of the presidential plane rash. %oland did not aept

?ussia)s one!sided interpretation of the auses of the rash.

Re)ional

cooperat

ion

9


30/30

+trate)ic Hutloo*

The main issue for the near future of %olish politis is the battle that is going to be foughtat the2011 fall parliamentary eletions over the %oles) historial and soial knowledge and

memory. The last five years were dominated by the attempts of the %i* under its

leader arosPaw /ayski to redefine %olish ontemporary history, from the round!table

agreement onwards. The real hallenges of eonomi reforms &the e8tremely signifiant

and threatening budget defiit and pensions funds( are unfortunately not going to be the

main topi of the ampaign. #n this period one would e8pet the state %resident7ronisPaw /omorowski to play the role of a signifiant oniliatory ator, both in terms

of influening the disourse as well as being an institutional pillar of %olish demoray.

The outome of the fall 2011 eletions is unpreditable beause the two main parties)

support does not differ muh. #t is possible to reliably predit that %oland will for a thirdtime in a row ontinue to have more or less the same party auuses represented in the

parliament, whih shows that some organiational stability ours. *till, in ase of %i*

vitory in the fall 2011 eletions, a prolonged period of adversarial politis should be

e8peted, for two reasons. Girstly, %i* leaders will try to implement their traditionalpolitial offerings, whih means attempts to violate the onstitutional provisions.

5owever, it is also unlikely that %i* will win a onstitutional majority that allows them to

formally hange the onstitution. *eondly, the state president is from the %' and will

stay in offie for most of the ne8t parliamentary term, most likely resulting in a very

hostile ohabitation. This senario is nevertheless less likely than ontinuity &in one

form or another( of the urrent %'!led government.

The most pressing tasks for the future are a reform of fisal poliies and of the pension

and health are systems. Cepending on the general eonomi situation in =urope

&the %olish eonomy is very sensitive to Herman eonomi development(,unemployment and inflation might also beome issues of immediate urgeny. nother

major field of onern is eduation and ?NC, espeially the moderniation of the link

between siene and industry.

t this point it is unlear whether %oland will be able to join =uroone, although thepolitial will is there, even if the population at large is beoming more euroskeptial thanin the pre!risis phase. #n any ase, for this to happen a lear aeleration of fisalstability poliies is re3uired. The introdution of the euro also re3uires a onstitutional

amendment and thus a 3ualified majority, whih is to say that a onsensus!seekingpolitial limate is neessary.

(114283684) Poland Country Report

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