11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc.,...

47
1 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng., Sr. Engineer, Water Management

Transcript of 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc.,...

Page 1: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

11

TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS

WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015

Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management

German Mojica, P.Eng., Sr. Engineer, Water Management

Page 2: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

22

Content

• Goal and Elements of a Forecast System

• Project Overview and Milestone

• TIFS: Data Acquisition System

• TIFS: GUI system

• TIFS: Inflow Forecast Models

Page 3: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

33

The Goal of a Forecast System

Page 4: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

44

Elements of a Forecast System

Page 5: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

55

Project Overview

• Objective:

• To implement an Inflow Forecasting System for the Bow and North Saskatchewan Rivers basins

• Project Scope:

• Develop 9 Inflow forecast models (Raven UBCWM) in 2 phases

• 7 models for Bow sub-basins: Banff, Cascade, Kananaskis River, Spray Lake, Spray River, Waiparous Creek, Jumpingpound

• 2 models for North SASK: Bighorn, Brazeau

• Tools and Scripts: Green Kenue, ArcGIS, Python, Rscripts, Ostrich, Raven

• Project team: National Research Council Canada - NRC, Kisters North America, TransAlta

Page 6: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

66

TransAlta Watersheds – Location

Page 7: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

77

TAU Watersheds-Phase I Watersheds

Page 8: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

88

TAU Watersheds-Phase II Watersheds

Page 9: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

99

Project Overview

• Develop GUI system: WISKI Launch Pad

• WISKI Launch Pad

• Model Run application (VB.net)

• WISKI Standard Graphs

• WISKI Reports (Kister’s Kiscripts)

• WISKI Map

• KiDAT application

• KiDSM application

• Data Integration:

• Alberta Environment (AEnv) NRT data

• Environment Canada (EC) weather forecast data

• Data preprocessing in WISKI

• Missing data processing: continuous daily Met and flow data required

• Noise and error data processing

Page 10: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1010

TIFS - Data Flow

Page 11: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1111

TIFS - Modules

TransAlta Inflow Forecast System

Data Acquisition System GUI SystemInflow Forecast

Models

AE

nv N

RT

Da

ta re

ceivin

g

an

d p

roce

ssing

EC

Fo

reca

st Da

ta

De

cod

ing

an

d P

roce

ssing

TAC

- IP2

1 D

ata

rece

iving

a

nd

pro

cessin

g

Re

po

rt sub

system

Gra

ph

sub

system

Pa

ram

ete

r ma

nu

al

calib

ratio

n

Au

tom

atic fo

reca

sting

Ma

nu

al fo

reca

sting

Page 12: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1212

Data Acquisition System

• EC Weather Forecast Data

• Decoding from EC Grib2 format to WISKI TS format

• GDPS: Global Deterministic Prediction System

• Precipitation and Temperature

• RDPS: Regional Deterministic Prediction System

• Precipitation and Temperature

• CAPA: Regional Deterministic Prediction Analysis

• Precipitation

Page 13: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1313

Weather Forecast Data - Processing

Page 14: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1414

Weather Forecast Data: GDPS

http://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_glb_25km_e.html

Page 15: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1515

Weather Forecast Data: RDPS

http://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_reg_10km_e.html

Page 16: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1616

Precipitation Analysis Data: CAPA

http://weather.gc.ca/grib/grib2_RDPA_ps10km_e.html

Page 17: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1717

GUI System – Launch Pad - Main

Page 18: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1818

GUI System - Launch Pad - Banff Model

Page 19: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

1919

GUI System – run model with historical data

Page 20: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2020

GUI System – model results (graph)

Page 21: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2121

GUI System – model results (ensemble TS)

Page 22: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2222

GUI System – model results (statistic graphs)

Page 23: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2323

GUI System – model results (statistic report)

Scenario 1- run model with original inputs files

Scenario 2- change gauge_weights.txt file

Page 24: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2424

GUI System – run model with EC forecast data

Page 25: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2525

GUI System – Graph (model results-GDPS)

Page 26: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2626

GUI System – Graph (model results-RDPS)

Page 27: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2727

GUI System – Graph (model results-CAPA)

Page 28: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2828

GUI System – Reports

Page 29: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

2929

GUI System – WISKI Map

Page 30: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3030

UBC Watershed Model

UBC Watershed Model

• Lumped Model

• Designed for mountainous regions

• “Banded” model – spatial discretization by elevation band

• Designed for daily time step

• interpolation techniques

• Linear routing

• Written in C++

Page 31: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3131

Raven Modeling Framework

• Raven is not a model but a “framework”

• Has variable:

• Discretization

• Routing algorithms

• Snowmelt algorithms

• Time step

• Etc.

• Can “emulate” other models if the processes are properly defined.

• Has “emulated” HBV-EC model, UBCWM, etc.

Page 32: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3232

Raven Modeling Framework

• Spatial discretization – Banded • As per the UBCWM

• Based on hypsographic curves

• HRUs defined by land class – physiographic combinations within each band

Page 33: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3333

Raven Modeling Framework

• Advantages:• High performance C++ code (10

year execution time < 2 seconds)

• UBCWM emulation accomplished (BC Hydro project)

Simulation Period (years)

Initialization (seconds)

Simulation (seconds)

Total Execution Time (seconds)

Banff 10 0.748 0.885 1.633

Bighorn 7 0.991 0.601 1.592

Brazeau 10 0.701 0.716 1.417

Jumpingpound 11 1.048 0.717 1.765

Page 34: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3434

Model Optimization - OSTRICH

• OSTRICH – Model independent calibration tool.

• Employs a number of optimization routines

• For this project:

• Employed R to calculate the objective function

• Used the particle swarm optimization routine

• 25x75 simulations = 1875 iterations; 10 year simulation ~ 75 minutes execution

0 2 4 6 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

Generations

Ob

jective

Fu

nctio

n

Setting Value

Number of generations 75

Swarm size 25

Constriction factor 1*

Cognitive parameter 2*

Social parameter 2*

Inertia weight 1.2*

Inertia reduction rate 0.1*

Convergence value 0.001

* represents default value

Page 35: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3535

Data Sources – Flow gauges

Page 36: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3636

Data Sources - Meteorological stations

Page 37: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3737

Modelling Approach

• Watershed setup

• Use ArcGIS and Green Kenue

• Basin discretization – DEM data processing

• Elevation bands/zones

• Land cover data processing

• Land cover harmonization

• Use Python script

• Creation of HRUs (.rvh file)

• Creation of Raven Input files

• .rvp, .rvt, rvc, rvi, and gauges weights file

Page 38: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3838

DEM Processing

Merge DEM files into single fileCrop DEM to watershed extension

Page 39: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

3939

Land Cover Harmonization

Original land cover Harmonized land cover

Page 40: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4040

Creation of RVH File

Page 41: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4141

Model Calibration

• The objective is to estimate the model parameters by minimizing differences between observed and simulated hydrographs

• Semi-automatic

• some intuitive/perceptive parameters are adopted based on experience

• Tool: Ostrich

• Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm

Page 42: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4242

Model Calibration

• Employed objective function

NSE: Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency Criterion (commonly used)

AAMFVB: Absolute value of the Mean Monthly Flow Volume Bias

Goal: Maximize NSE and R2 of annual flow peaks and minimize monthly volume biases

Page 43: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4343

Model Calibration

Page 44: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4444

Performance Assessment

Page 45: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4545

Performance Assessment

Page 46: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4646

Performance Assessment

Page 47: 11 TransAlta Inflow Forecast System - TIFS WISKI ESRD Conference – March 10, 2015 Lin Li, M.Sc., P.Eng., Engineer, Water Management German Mojica, P.Eng.,

4747

Questions?