1 1 September 2015

On the role of measurements and modelling in Dutch air quality policies

Guus Velders

The Netherlands

(RIVM)

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EU air quality regulation

EU directive on air quality of 2008● Limit values for concentrations in ambient air

– NO2, PM10, PM2.5, SO2, Benzene, Lead, Benzo-a-pyrene

– Guidelines how to perform measurements specified quality, number of locations, etc.

– Combination of measurements and models allowed– Guidelines on the quality of models

● Levels for informing the public (forecasts)– Ozone, SO2, PM

– Hourly averages

● Limit values to be met everywhere

● Implemented in national regulation of each country individually

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Dutch implementation

● Air quality limit values linked to new infrastructural projects– Roads, factories, enlargement of pig stables, etc.– For new projects: To be guaranteed beforehand that limit values

will not be exceeded (ever)

● Limit values to be met everywhere– Where people can spend an significant amount of time– Except where people are not allowed or can not get (industrial

areas, center of motorways, etc.)

● Combination of measurements and models– Requirement for local models– Model intercomparisons– Models need to be approved for official use

● Focus on limit values, …… but there are also health effects below limit values

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More and more studies on health effects AQ

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Limit values exceedances in the Netherlands

● NO2 annual average concentration– Limit value: 40 µg/m3 from 2015-on– Exceedances at locations close to busy motorways and roads in cities– Number of locations reduced from ~1000 km to less than 10 km

● PM10 daily average concentration– Limit value: 50 µg/m3 may not be exceeded more than 35 times (from 2011-on)– Exceedances close to roads in cities, industrial locations, agriculture– Currently only close to stables (pigs, poultry)

● PM2.5 annual average– Limit value: 25 µg/m3 from 2015-on– No exceedances

– Indicative limit value: 20 µg/m3 from 2020-on– Reduction in average concentration in cities of 15% in 2020 relative to 2010– Likely to be met

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EU, national, and local policies

Policies to reduce concentrations● EU

– Emissions ceilings directive: NOx, PM2.5, SO2, NH3, VOC

– Regulations for large combustion plants– Limits for the exhaust emissions of passenger cars and trucks: NOx, PM, CO2

● Netherlands: national– Additional PM10 emission ceilings in industry

– Regulations for ammonia emissions in agriculture– NOx emissions trading system

● Netherlands: cities– Regulating traffic flows– Bans on ‘dirty’ cars in cities– Promotion of public transport, biking– etc.

● National air quality collaboration programme (NSL)

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Air quality assessment in Netherlands

Combination of measurements and modelling: past year + projections

Focus on limit values and annual average concentrations: NO2, PM10, PM2.5

Concentrations compared with limit values at 0.1 µg/m3

Uncertainties hardly play a role

Public information: Forecast of hourly values

Current issues– Which species are most responsible for health effects?– Carbon (EC, OC), metals, NO2, secondary aerosols (ammonium, nitrate,

sulfate), all of PM?– Health effects below limit values

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Maps based on models and measurements

Emissions 1x1 km2:traffic, stables,

coal/grain handling

OPS calculation1x1 km2

ConversionNOx NO2

Calibration

Meteo

Scenarios + Options

Emissions 5x5 km2:other sources

GCN map 1x1 km2

Observation

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Measurements used for the maps

In situ measurements● Networks from several organizations

– Hourly/daily observations of many components– 27 regional background stations– 26 city background stations– 28 stations in street canyons– 11 stations in industrial areas

● Passive sampler measurements– NO2 (50-100) in street canyons

– NH3 (>200) in nature areas

● Calibration/validation of the model

● Calibration of the final maps

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Concentration maps

● Local models are used to calculate concentrations at street level

City of Utrecht

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Many sub maps calculates

● Netherlands– 50 different emission categories– Resolution: traffic, stables, coal/grain handling: 1x1 km– Others: 5x5 km2

● Foreign: all European countries– 10 categories (SNAP): separate spatial distributions– Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg: 5x5 km2

– Others: ~30x30 km2

● Shipping at sea– North sea– Ships in harbor and at sea

● Concentrations: NOx, SO2, NH3, PM10 , PM2.5 (primary + secondary), EC

● Nitrogen deposition● Acid deposition

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Analyzing contributions from different sectors

● Ex-ante or ex-post evaluations of control measures● Used for cost benefit analyses● Correlations with health effects

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Projections of emissions

Emissions decrease mainly due to traffic measures (Euro standards)

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Projections of concentrations: NO2

Decreasing observed concentrations and projectionsUncertainties are significant, but ignored in policies

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Projections of concentrations: PM10 and PM2.5

Slightly decreasing concentrations

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Air quality short-term forecasts

Atmospheric chemistry transport model● Assimilation of observations● Currently ground based ozone observations only

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Potential for satellite data for AQ in Netherlands

● NO2 concentrationsNeed for:– Surface concentrations– High resolution required (km scale)– High accuracy required (10%)– Good coverage (spatial and temporal)Potential for:– Direct mapping of air quality: No– Identifying/verifying sources: Yes– Comparison with other regions/countries: Yes– Improvement in models: Yes– ???

● Aerosols– Aerosol optical depth Surface concentrations: EC/BC, OC, inorganics– Identifying/verifying sources

● Ozone, Ammonia– Surface concentrations needed

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More information here

● Background report: Velders et al., 2015● Websites: http://www.rivm.nl/gcn http://www.nsl-monitoring.nl http://www.lml.rivm.nl ● Publications

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Questions?

Dank u wel Thank you Gracias Danke Merci Diolch yn fawr Cпасибоشكرا 谢谢 धन्यवा�द σας ευχαριστώ תודה terima kasih teşekkür ederim köszönöm நன்றி�