11-1972

92d Congress, 2d Session

T 1 iI n rii r*z$ TT^TQJ.I1UL1OCL L\JL o

November 1972

Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by theCouncil of Economic Advisers

UNITED STATESGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON : 1972

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE(Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)

WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin, ChairmanWRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman

SENATEpHN SPARKMAN (Alabama)J. W. FULBRIGHT (Arkansas)ABRAHAM RIBICOFF (Connecticut)HUBERT H. HUMPHREY (Minnesota)LLOYD M. BENTSEN, Jr. (Texas)JACOB K. JAVTTS (New York)JACK MILLER (Iowa)CHARLES H. PERCY (Illinois)JAMES B. PEARSON (Kansas)

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESRICHARD BOLLING (Missouri)HALE BOGGS (Louisiana)HENRY S. REUSS (Wisconsin)MARTHA W. GRIFFITHS (Michigan)WILLIAM S. MOORHEAD (Pennsylvania)WILLIAM B. WIDNALL (New Jersey)BARBER B. CONABLE, Jr. (New York)CLARENCE J. BROWN (Ohio)BEN B. BLACKBURN (Georgia)

JOHN R. STARK, Executive DirectorLOUGHLIN F. McHuGH, &8Jar Economist

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERSHERBERT STEIN, Chairman

EZRA SOLOMONMARINA v. N. WHITMAN

Economic Indicators -prepared under supervision of FRANCES M. JAMES

[PUBLIC LAW 12081sT CONGRESS; CHAPTER 237Isr SESSION]JOINT RESOLUTION [S J. Res. 55]

To print the monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators"

Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the JointEconomic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled "Economic Indicators," and that asufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary and the Sergeant atArms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies tothe libraries of the Senate and House, and the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint EconomicCommittee; and the required number of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depositorylibraries; and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public.

Approved June 23, 1949.

Charts drawn by Art Production Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce.

Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at 25 cents a single copyor by subscription at $3.00 per year (foreign, $4.00) from:

SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTSGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON, D.C 20402Subscribers who wish to receive it at an earlier date after release may take advan-tage of provisions for airmail subscriptions. The domestic airmail subscriptionprice is $3.60 additional per year.

it


TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDINGTHE NATION'S INCOME, EXPENDITURE, AND SAVINGGross national product rose $24% billion in the third quarter to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,164 billion,according to revised estimates. This followed rises of about $31 billion in each of the 2 preceding quarters.

[Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19651966196719681969197019711971: I

IIIII...rv___

1972: IIIIII'..

Disposab

Total i

473.2511.9546. 3591. 0634.4689.5744.4725.7742,9750.4758.5770.5782.6798.8

le personsLess:

Interestpaid andtransfer

pay-mentsto for-eigners

12.013.013.915. 116.717.918. 518. 318.418. 718.818. 819.119.4

Personsil incomeEquals:Total

exclud-ing

interestand

trans-fers461.3498.9532.4575. 9617.7671.6725.8707.4724.5731.7739.7751. 7763.5779.4

Personalconsump-

tionexpend-itures

432.8466.3492. 1536. 2579.5616. 8664. 9648.0660.4670. 7680.5696. 1713.4728.6

Ppr-sonalsaving

ordis-

saving

28. 432.540.439. 838. 254.960.9

59. 364. 161.059.3

55. 750. 150.8

N

Taxand

nontaxreceipts

oraccruals

189. 1213.3228. 9263. 5296. 7302. 0321.6

313.5318. 8323. 3330. 7

353. 8361.4369.0

et receip

Less:Trans-

fers,interest,

andsub

sidies 2

49. 955. 562. 870. 777.993. 0

105.7

100.6107.4106. 5108.4

112. 1114. 1115.7

C

ts

Equals:Net

receipts

139. 2157. 9166. 2192. 7218.8209. 0215. 9

212. 9211.4216. 8222. 3

241. 7247. 3253.3

jovernmeE

Totalexpend-itures

186. 9212.3242. 9270. 3287. 9312. 1338. 5

327.5336. 9340. 2349.4

361.6368. 3371.2

at

xpenditur

Less:Trans-fers,

interest,and

sidies 2

49. 955.562.870. 777.993.0

105.7

100.6107.4106.5108.4

112. 1114. 1115.7

es

Equals:Pur-

chasesof goods

andservices

137.0156. 8180. 1199. 6210.0219.0232. 8

227. 0229. 5233. 6240.9

249.4254.1255.6

Surplusor

deficit

incomeand

productaccounts

2.21. 1

13. 9 6. 8

8.8-10. 1-16. 9

-14. 0-18. 0-16, 9-18. 7

-7, 7-6. 9-2.2

Period

19651966196719681969 ~197019711971: I

IIIIIIV

1972: IIIm*__

Grossretained

earn-ings 3

84. 791. 393. 095. 497. 097. 3

109. 9

103. 210S. 7110. 5117. 2

115. 9124. S125. 1

Business

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment 4

108. 1121.4116. 6126. 0139. 0137. 1152. 0

143. 9153. 0152. 2158. 8

168. 1177. 0183. 2

Excessof

invest-ment(-)

-23. 4-30. 1-23. 5- 30. 6 42. 0-39. 7-42. 1

-40. 7-44. 3-41. 7-41. 0

52. 2 f>2. 2-sa I

Nettransfers

to for-eignersby per-

sons andGovern-

ment

2. 82. 83. 02, 92. 93. 23. 0

3 23. 43. 84. 0

3. 83. 83. 8

Ii

Net ea

Exports

39. 243.446. 250. 655. 562. 960. 1

06. 36(1 708. 503. 0

70. 770. 074.4

iternation

xports ofnd service

Less:Imports

32. 338. 141. 048. 153. 059. 305. 4

01. 800. 008. 205. 1

75. 375. 277. 8

al

goodss

Equals:Net

exports

6. 95. 35. 22. 51. 93. 6. 7

4. 5. 1. 4

2. 1

-4. 0r-j o

3. 4

Excess oftransfers

orof net

exports(-)

-4. 1-2.4-2. 2

. 41. 0-. 42. 8

-1. 43. 23. 46. 1

8. 49. 07. 2

Totalincome

orreceipts

688.0750.9794. 6866. 9936. 3981. 1

1, 055. 2

1, 026. 71, 048. 01, 062. 81, 083. 2

1, 113. 11, 139. 41, 161. 6

Statis-tical

discrep-ancy

-3. 1-1. 0tj-2.7-6. 1-4,7-4.8

-3. 3-4. 9-5. 9-5. 2

-4. 1^2.2

Grossnationalproduct

orexpend-

iture

684. 9749. 9793.9864. 2930.3976.4

1, 050. 4

1, 023. 41, 043. 01, 056. 91, 078. 1

1, 109. 11, 139. 41, 164. 0

1 Personal Income (p. 5) less personal tax and nontax pay men ts (fhmi, penalties,

etc.). Government transfer payments to persons, foreign net transfers by Govern-

ment, net interest paid by government, subsidies less current surplus of govern-ment enterprises, and disbursements lass wage accruals.

* Undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment,capital consumption allowances, and private wage accruals lewi disbursements.Does not include retained earnings of unincorporated business, which are Included

In disposable personal income.4 Private business Investment, purchases of capital goods by private nonprofit

Institutions, and residential housing.s Not foreign investment less capital grants received by United States, with

sign changed.Source: Department of Commerce.


GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITUREGross national product (seasonally adjusted) rose at a revised upward annual rate of 8.9 percent in the third quarter.Real gross national product rose at a 6.3 percent rate while prices increased at a 2.4 percent rate.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1,200

1,000

800

600

400*

*

200

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT


PERSONAL CONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURES

-GOVERNMENT PURCHASES -OF GOODS AND SERVICES

I .

NET EXPORTS OF GOODSAND SERVICES

I_L

1966 1967

SOURCEt DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE

JL1968

""urn

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTICINVESTMENT

1969 1970

^--*

JL

1,000

800

600

1971 1972

COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1962196319641965..1966_.196719681969197019711971: I

IIIIIIV

1972: IIIIII

Totalgross

nationalproductin 1958dollars

529.8561. 0581. 1617. 8668. 1675. 2706. 6725. 6722. 1741. 77S1. 9737. 9742. 5754.5766. 6783.9796.1

Totalgross

nationalproduct

Billions f dollars;

355. 1375. 0401.2432.8466. 3492. 1536. 2579. 5616. 8664. 9648.0660.4670.7680. 5696. 1713.4728.6

Grossprivate

domesticinvest-ment

quarterly

83. 087. 194.0

108. 1121. 4116. 6126. 0139. 0137. 1152. 0143.9153. 0152. 2158. 8168. 1177.0183.2

Netexportsof goods

andservices

r data at s

5.15.98.56.95.35. 22.51. 93. 6. 7

4. 5. 1.4

2. 1

4. 6-5.2-3.4

Gove

Total

easonall;

117. 1122. 5128.7137.0156. 8180. 1199. 6210. 0219. 0232.8227. 0229.5233.6240. 9249.4254.1255. 6

rnment f

Total

Y adjuste63. 464. 265.266. 977. 890.798. 89&896. 597.896. 296. 397.9

100.7105.7108. 1105.4

>ur chasesservicesFederalNationaldefense1

d annual

51.650. 850.050. 160.772. 478. 378.475. 171. 472.571. 270. 171. 976. 778.675. 1

of good

Other

rates

11.813. 515.216. 817. 118. 420. 520.421.526. 323.725. 027. 828. 728. 929. 630.2

s and

Stateandlocal

53.758.263.570.179. 089.4

100. 8111.2122.5135. 0130.8133.3135.7140.2143. 7146.0150.2

Implicitprice

deflatorfor total

GNP,1958= 100 2

105. 78107. 17108. 85110. 86113. 94117. 59122. 30128. 20135. 23141. 61139. 84141. 34142. 35142. 88144.68145. 34146. 21

1 This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense, 2 Gross national product in current dollars divided by gross national product

shown on p. 36. in 1958 dollars.Source: Department of Commerce,


RATIONAL INCOMENational income rose $21 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter. Employee compensationwas up $1 2% billion. Proprietors' and rental income recovered from the effects of the hurricane in the second quarter.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

CORPORATE PROFITS ANDINVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT

500

400

100

500

400

100

1966

J/PRELIMINARYSOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

1962 ,1963 _19641965 _1966196719681969197019711971: I

IIIIIrv

1972: III _III"

Totalnationalincome

457.7481.9518.1564.3620. 6653. 6711. 1766. 0798.6855.7

834.5851. 4860. 8876. 2

903. 1922. 1943. 1

Compen-sationof em-

ployees 1

323.6341.0365.7393.8435. 5467.2514. 6566. 0603. 8644. 1

628. 6639. 6648. 0660. 4682. 7097. 8710. 2

Proprietoi

Farm2

13.013. 112.114.816. 114,814.716. 716.917. 3

16. 816. 917. 618. 1

19. 118. 719. 1

rs' income

Businessand pro-fessional

37. 137.940.242.445.247.349. 550. 549. 952.6

51. 352. 453. 153. 8

54. 354. 456. 2

Rentalincome

ofper-

16.717. 118.019.020. 021. 121. 222. 623. 324, 5

23. 924. 424. 825. 0

25. 224. 226.2

Netinter-est

11.613. 815.818.221. 424. 426.930.534.838.5

37.338. 139. 139. 7

40. 140. 941.7

Corporatory va

Total

55.75& 966.376.182. 47R784. 379.869. 978. 6

76. 680. 178. 379. 4

81. 886. 189. 7

jQ profitsluation ac

Profitsbeforetaxes

55.459.466.877.884.279.887. 684.974,383.3

81.384.584. 183.2

88. 291.695.8

and inven-IjustmentInventoryvaluation

adjustment0.3-.5 .5

-1.7 1. 8 1. 1 3. 3 5. 1-4.4

4.7

-4.7-4.4-5.8-3.9

-6.5-5.5-6.1

1 Includes employer contributions for social insurance. (See also p. 4.)2 Excludes farm profits of corporations engnged in farming and therefore differs

from net farm income (including nel inventory change) on p. C which includessuch profits;

Source: Department of Commerce.


SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOMEPersonal income rose $15% billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in October mainly because of the statutoryincrease in Social Security benefits (about $8 billion) and larger wage and salary disbursements ($51A billion).


800

400

400

200

WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS


I II I I I ! I t I I ! t M I I M I I I1966 1967

I I I I I I I1968

OTHER INCOME

.1TRANSFER PAYMENTS

I 'I 1 1 I I M I 1 f1969

.1 I f f f i t ! 1 1 I

1970i i i i i I i i i i i

1971


800

600

400

200

I 1 1 1 I I I ! 1 1 11972

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

Period

19641965196619671968196919701971

1971: Sept....OctNov____Dec

1972: JanFebMar....AprMay...JuneJuly ...AugSeptOct*___

1 The total of wag

from compensationbuttons for social in

* Consists of empfunds; coinpensatioother minor items.

Totalpersonalincome

497. 5538.9587. 2629. 3688. 9750. 9806.3861.4

872. 2874. 8879.4890. 4

898. 9908. 5913. 6919. 4924. 0922. 9932. 9940. 0946. 8962. 0

e and salaryof employeesiirance andloyer contriQ for injuries

Wageand

salarydisburse-ments 1

333. 7358.9394. 5423. 1464. 9509. 7541. 9572. 9

577.9579.9583. 4594. 3

602.6609. 0612. 4617.6619. 9624. 0625. 7630. 6638. 0641. 5

disbursemer3 (see p. 3) inthe excess of

Dutions to pi; directors' f

Otherlabor

income12

16. 618.720. 722. 325. 428. 432. 136. 5

37. 537. 838. 038. 3

38.538. 839. 139.539. 840. 140. 540. 841. 141.4

its and othethat it exclwage accrue

1vate pensioees; military

Proprietc

Farm

12, 114.816. 114. 814. 716. 716, 917. 317. 918. 018. 118. 118.619. 119. 519. 118. 718. 418. 619. 119. 519. 5

r labor iiicoudes emplojL!S over wagen, health, aireserve pay;

:>rs' incomeBusinessand pro-fessional

40. 242.445. 247. 349. 550. 549. 952. 6

53. 453. 653. S53. 9

54.054. 154. 754. 955.353. 255. 756. 356. 757. 0

me ditl'ersrer contri- f-cdisburse- cad welfareand a few

Rentalincome

ofpersons

18. 019.020. 021. 121. 222. 023. 324. 5

24. 924. 925. 025. 1

25. 125. 225. 325. 525. 621. 525. 826. 326. 527.0

3 Personal ii

inn wages,orporations.Source: Do

Divi-dends

17. 819.820. 821. 423. 624. 324. 825. 4

25. 525. f>25. 524. 6

26.026. 126.026. 126. 326. 326. 426. 626.526.7

icome esciusagricultural i

partmcnt of (

Personalinterestincome

34. 938.743. 648. 052. 959. 365. 869. 6

70. f>70. 570. 670. 7

70.871. 071. 372. 072. 773. 473. 573.473.373.7

ive of net inlet interest,

Uominorce.

Transferpay-

ments

36.739.944. 151.859. 665. 879.593. 6

90. 190. 296. 897. 6

97. 6100. 0100. 199. 7

100. 9101. 3102. 2102. 8103.2111. 4

jome of uninand net div

Less: Per-sonal con-tributionsfor socialinsurance

12. 513.417.720. 522. 826. 32a o31. 2

31. 531. 631. 832. 3

34. 334. 734. 835. 035. i35. 335. 535. 836.036. 3 !

corporated fanridends paid by

N onagri-culturalpersonalincome s

480.9519.5566. 3609. 4668. 8728.3782. 8837. 2i847. 6850. 0854. 5865. 0

! 873. 4882. 4887. 1893.4898. 3897. 5907.3914. 0

1 920. 31 935. 6enterprises,agricultural


DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOMEDisposable personal income (seasonally adjusted) rose sharply in the third quarter but saving also increased and thesaving rate remained unchanged at about 6% percent.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.900

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

500

400

DOLLARS4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

600

500

400N

DOLLARS4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME- SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

CURRENT DOLLARS

1966 1967

SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE?

1972


Period

19641965196619671968196919701971

1971: ! _ _ _I I__III_IV

1972: ! _ _ _I I _ _IIL_

Per-sonal

income

497.5538.9587. 2629. 368a 9750.9806.3861.4

838. 0858. 1867. 9881. 5907. 0922. 1939. 9

Less:Per-sonal

tax andnontaxpay-

ments

59.465.775.483. 097.9

116.5116.7117. 0

112. 3115. 2117. 5123. 0136. 5139.5141. 1

Equals:Dis-

posablepersonalincome

438. 1473.2511. 9546. 3591. 0634.4689. 5744, 4

725. 7742. 9750.4758. 5770. 5782. 6798.8

L

Totalpersonaloutlays l

Billions

411.9444.8479. 3506. 0551. 2596. 2634. 7683. 4

Seaso

666. 4678. 8689. 4699. 2

714. 9732. 5748. 0

ess: PersePersor

ex

Durablegoods

of dollars

59. 266.370.873. 184. 090. 890. 5

103. 5

natty adj'i

99. 8101. 9106. 1106. 1

111. 01 1 3. 9118. 6

nal outlaylal consul]penditure

Non-durablegoods

178. 7191. 1206. 9215. 0230. 8245. 9264. 4278. 1

isted anrni

273. 4277. 2278. 5283. 4

288. 3297. 2302. 0

fS

aption3 2

Services

163. 3175. 5188. 6204. 0221. 3242. 7261. 8283. 3

at rates

274. 8281. 3286. 1290. 9

296. 7302. 4308. 0

Equals:Personal

saving

26. 228.432. 540. 439. 838. 254. 960. 9

59. 364. 161. 059. 3

55. 750. 150. 8

Per capposable

incc

Currentdollars

Dol

2,2832,4362,6042,7492, 9453, 1303, 3663, 595

3, 5173, 5923, 6203,649

3, 7003, 7513,821

>ita dis-personal>me

1958dollars

lars

2, 1262,2392, 3352, 4032,4862, 5342,6032,679

1

2, 6502, 6822,6842,698

2,7162,7392,773

Savingas per-cent of

dis-posablepersonalincome

( percent)

6.06.06.47.46.76. 08.08. 2

1

8. 28. 68. 17. 8

7. 26.46.4

Popula-tion

(thou-sands) 3

191, 889194, 303196, 560198, 712200, 706202, 677204, 879207, 049

206, 310206, 806207, 312207, 856

208, 255208, 628209, 053

1 Includes personal consumption expenditures, interest paid by consumers,

and personal transfer payments to foreigners.3 See p. 2 for total personal consumption expenditures.

3 Includes Armed Forces abroad. Annual data are for July 1; quarterly data are

for middle of period, interpolated from monthly data.Source: Department of Commerce.


FARM INCOMENet farm income excluding inventory change (seasonally adjusted) rose 2% percent in the third quarter, includinginventory change the rise was 11A percent.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS70

50

40

30

20

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANflUAL RATES

1966 1967

NET FARM INCOMEINCLUDING NET INVENTORY

CHANGE

1968

-V

1969 1970 1971

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS1 70

6"0

20

10

1972

SOURCEj DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

1964 _.19651966196719681969 _ _19701971

1971: IIIIIIIV

1972: IIIIII__

Personaltotal f

Fromall

sources

20.623.624. 924. 025. 127. 628. 229. 5

income rearm popu

Fromfarm

sources

11.313.514 4ia i13. 214. 915.015. 6

ceived bylation

Fromnonfarmsources

9.310.010.510.911.912.713. 213. 9

Realize

Total l

Billions c42.644.949.749. 050.955.657.960. 1Seaso

59. 059. 160. 461. 8

64. 164.866. 1

]

d gross

Cashreceipts

frommarket-

ings)f dollars

37.239.343. 342. 744. 148. 150.553. 1

naily adjt51.952. 153. 454.9

56.556.958. 1

ncome re

Production ex-penses

29.530.933.434. 836.238.841. 144.0

isted annu43.243,744. 344,9

45.646.547.3

ceived fro

Net t. i8'J. 7

Dorate pr

M

Total

32.739. 342, 638. 741. 7U). 027. 7](). 910. 9n. 2>0. 1J l . 2

>r>. 457. o

ofits (befcvaluationanufactui

Durablegoodsindus-tries

17. S22. 824. 020. 722. 4IS. 8: i i . o14. 1

M. 31 - 1 , !13. :;.M. ;:'.17. 7I D . -i

>re taxes)ad justme1ing

Non-durablegoodsindus-tries

14.916.618. 618. 019. ' >17.710. 71 6. S

i f > . r>JO. S.10. i)1(1. !)

17. 717. (i

and inveiat

Trans-portation,

com-muni-

cations,and

publicutilities

10. 11 1. 111. 91 0. S1 0. G10. 17. 0S. 2

7. Ss. sS. .'7. ( i7. S8. S

itory

Allother l

23.525. 627. 929. 1

2. 03. i'.i. (ii). (>7. S0. 1!9. 00. f>

S. 540. 3

||Corpo-

rateprofitsbeforetaxes

66.877. 884. 279. 487. >84. )74. >83.

SI . \;s4. >SI . 1S3. 2

88. 2!)i . r,1)5. 8

|Corpo-ratetax

liabil-ity

28. 331. 334. 3> > >39. 910. I34. 13 / . 318. ()M. (i57. 5

35. 3

38. 840. 142.0

Cor]a

Total

38.446. 549. 940. f>47. 844. 840. 245. 9

43. 245. S46. 648. 0

49. 551. 553. 7

Derate pifter taxc

Divi-dendpay-

ments

17. 819.820. 821. 423. 624. 324. 825. 425. 525. 425. 525. 226. 026. 226. 5

'ofitsiS

Un-distrib-

utedprofits

20. 626. 729. 125. 324. 220. 515. 420. 517. 720.421. 022. 723.525. 327.2

Corpo-rate

capitalcon-

sump-tion

allow-ances 2

33. 936.439. 543. 046. 851. 955. 260.357. 559.461. 263. 064.868.068.4

Profitsplus

capitalcon-

sump-tion

allow-ances 3

72. 382.989. 589. 694. 696.795.4

106.2100.7105. 2107.8111. 0114.3119. 5122. 1

1 Includes all other industries and financial institutions.2 Includes depreciation and accidental damages.

'Corporate profits a f t e r taxes plus corporate capital consumption allowances.Source: Department of Commerce.

85-97772 1Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENTGross private domestic investment rose $6 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter, half of whichwas accounted for by a rise in inventory accumulation.

B1LUONS OF DOtlARS

CHANGE IN BUSINESSINVENTORIES20 20

1966 1967

SOURCb DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1971 1972

COUNCH OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


PorlnH

1962 _.1963..1964 _19651966196719681969197019711971:1..

IIIII..IV

1972:1II

Totalgross

privatedomesticinvest-ment

83. 087. 1940

108. 112L4116. 6126. 0139. 0137. 1152. 0143.9153.0152.2158. 8168.1177.0183.2

Total

77.081. 388.298. 5

106. 6108.4118.9131. 1132. 2148. 3139. 0146.4150. 9157.2167.7172.0175.2

Total

51.754. 361. 171. 381. 683. 388. 898.5

100. 9105. 8101. 9105.0106. 3109.8116. 1119.2120.7

Nc

Struc

Total

19. 219. 521.225. 528.528. 030. 334. 236. 038.437. 638. 338. 738.841. 342.041.8

Fixed im

mresident

tures

Non-farm

18. 518.820.524.927.827. 329. 633. 535.237. 536.837. 537. 938.040. 541.240.9

restment

ial

Produceble equ

Total

32.534.839. 945.853. I55. 358.564.364. 967.464.366.767.671.074. 877.279.0

rs' dura-ipment

Non-farm

29.431.236.341. 648.450. 053. 659.259. 260. 958.360.460.864.267.769.671.0

Residstruc

Total

25.327.027.127. 225. 025. 130. 132, 631.242. 637.041.444. 547.351.652.854.4

entialtures

Non-farm

24.826. 426.626. 724. 524. 529. 532.030.742.036.640.943. 946. 751. 052. 153.7

Changeness inv

Total

6.05.95.89. 6

14. 88. 27. 17.84. 93.6

4.96. 61.31.7

.45.08.0

in busi-entorics

Non-farm

5.35.16.48. 6

15.07. 56. 97.74. 82. 43.95. 1

_

2

.8

. 14.37.9

Source: Department of Commerce.

8


XPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENTBusinessmen projected a 10 percent increase in plant and equipment expenditures from 1971 to 19727 according toreports in late July and August. Outlays are expected to rise from the first to the second half of 1972,


80

40

20



TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT

"'

NONMANUFACTURIN

1966 1967J/ SEE FOOTNOTE 3 BELOW.SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1968

MANUFACTURING

J I1969

] t I1970 1971

80

40

20

1972



Period

196219631964196519661967196819691970__19711972 3

1971: IIIIIIIV _ _

1972: IIIIII3IVs

Total *

38.3940.7746. 9754. 4263. 5165.4767. 7675. 5679.7181.2189. 10

79. 3281. 6180. 7583. 18

86. 7987. 1290. 3891. 84

M

Total

15.0616. 2219. 3423.4428. 2028. 5128. 3731. 6831. 9529. 9931.66

30. 4630. 1229. 1930. 35

30. 0930. 3732. 6233. 22

anufactui

Dur-able

goods

6. 797. 539. 28

11. 5014. 0614. 0614. 1215. 9615. 8014. 1515. 70

14. 2114. 0613. 7614. 61

1 5. 0614. 7716. 22.10. 58

-ing-

Non-durablegoods

8.268. 70

10. 0711. 9414. 1414. 4514. 2515. 7216. 1515.8415. 96

16. 2516. 0615. 4315. 74

15. 0215. 6016. 401 6. 05

Mining

1. 401.271. 341. 461. 621. 651. 631. 861. 892. 162. 44

2. 042. 082 2,32. 30

2. 422. 382. 462. 52

Tra

Rail-road

1. 021. 261. 661. 992. 371. 861. 451. 861.781. 671. 81

1. 461. 881. 721. 64

2. 101. 881. 731. 56

nsportat

Air

0. 52.40

1. 021. 221. 742. 292. 562. 513. 031. 882.50

1. 292. 281. 082. 26

1. 962. 892. 572. 59

ion

Other

1, 651. 581. 501. 681. 641.481. 591. 681. 231. 381. 38

1. 331. 401. 481. 33

1. 481. 531. 491. 10

Publicutilities

4.904.985. 496. 137. 438. 74

10.2011. 6113. 1415. 3017. 32

14. 6414. 9115. 8715. 74

16. 9216. 6017. 3618. 36

Com-muni-cation

3. 854. 064. 615.306. 026. 346.838. 30

10. 1010.7711.99

10. 7011. 2110. 7310. 44

11. 7111. 59

3232

Com-mercial

andother 2

9. 9910.9912. 02ia 19144814. 5915. 1416. 0516. 5918. 0519. 99

17. 3917. 7217.8519. 10

20. 1019. 88

.1949

i Excludes agricultural business; real astato operators; medical, legal, educa-mal, and cultural service; and nonprofit organizations.s Includes trade, service, construction, finance, and insurance.1 Estimates based on expected capital expenditures as reported by businesslate July and August 1972. Includes adjustments when necessary for systematic

tendencies in expectations data,NOTE.Annual total is the sum of unadjusted expenditures; It does not

necessarily coincide with the average of seasonally adjusted figures.These figures do not agree with the totals included in the gross national product

estimates of the Department of Commerce, principally because the latter coveragricultural investment and also certain equipment and construction outlayscharged to current expense.

Source: Department of Commerce;


STATUS OF LABOR FORCECivilian employment grew by 260,000 (seasonally adjusted) in October to a level of 82.5 million and the civilianlabor force increased somewhat less (227,000), so that unemployment fell slightly.

MILLIONS OF PERSONS* MILLIONS OF PERSONS*

UNEMPLOYMENT

I 1 t > 1 ! I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 I ! ! ! 1 I I I \ f I 1 I f f f ! T

1966*16 YEARS.OF AGE AND OVERSOURCEi DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1972


Period

19671968...196919701971...

1971:Sept.Oct..Nov.Dec-

1972:Jan*.Feb..Mar_Apr.May.June-July.Aug.Sept.Oct..

Totallaborforce(includ-ing

ArmedForces)80, 79382, 27284,24085, 90386, 929

86, 88487, 35287, 71587, 541

87, 14787, 31887, 91487, 78787, 98690, 44891, 00590, 75889, 09889, 591

Civilisploy

Total

74, 37275, 92077, 90278,62779, 120

Unadj

79, 29580, 06580, 20480, 188

79, 10679, 36680, 19580, 62781, 22382, 62983, 44383, 50582,03482, 707

in em-ment

Non-agri-cul-

turalThous

70, 52772, 10374, 29675, 16575, 732

usted

75, 85176, 59576, 94277, 240

76, 23776, 45877, 10177, 33977, 69278, 65379, 38379, 47578, 37678, 986

Unem-ploy-ment

ands of j2,9752,8172,8324,0884,993

4,8404,5704,8154,695

5,4475,4125,2154, 6974,3445,4265, 1734,8574,6584,470

Totallaborforce(includ-ing

ArmedForces)

)ersons 1680, 79382, 27284,24085, 90386, 929

87,24087, 46787,81287, 883

88, 30188, 07588, 81788, 74788, 90688, 78888, 86589, 25689,45489, 691

Civilianlaborforce

years of77, 34778, 73780, 73482, 71584, 113

c

84, 49184, 75085, 11685, 225

85, 70785, 53586, 31386, 28486, 48686, 39586, 46786, 86087,04987, 276

Civili

Total

age and o74, 37275, 92077, 90278, 62779, 120

Seasonally

79, 45179, 83280, 020SO, 098

80, 63680, 62S81, 24181, 20581, 39481, 66781, 68281, 97382, 22282, 482

in emplo

Agri-cul-

tural

ver3,8443, 8173, 6063,4623,387

adjusteo

3,3633,4163,4193, 400

S,3933,3573, 4823,3243,3533,3373,4453,6253,575, 660

yment

Non-agri-cul-tural

70, 52772, 10374, 29675, 16575, 732

I

76, 08876, 41676, 60176, 698

77, 24377, 26677, 75977, 88178, 04178, 33078, 23778, 34878, 64778, 822

Unem-ploy-ment

2,9752,8172,8324,0884,993

5, 0404, 9185, 0965, 127

5, 0714,9125,0725,0795,0924, 7284, 7864,8874,8274,794

Unemplrate (pe

civih'afor

3. 83.63. 54. 95. 9

Unadj.

5.85. 45. 75. 5

a 4a 4a i5.55.16,25,85. 55.45. 1

oymentrcent ofQ laborce)

Percent

SeascadJK

6. 06. 86. 06. 0

5. 95. 76. 95.96.96.66.66.66.66. 6

Laborforce

partici-pationrate1

60.660.761. 161. 361. 0

nally,sted

61. 061. 061.261.1

61. 060. 861.261. 161.161.060.961.161.161.2

1 Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population.

Source: Department of Labor.10

*Data beginning January 1972 not strictly comparable with prior data becauseof adjustment to the 1970 Census data, which added 333,000 to the civilian laborforce and 301,000 to civilian employment.


SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND PART-TIME EMPLOYMENTihe overall unemployment rate remained at 5.5 percent (seasonally adjustecf) in October and jobless rates for mostof the major labor force categories were basically unchanged.

PERCENT10

PERCENT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

LABOR FORCE TIME LOSTA/>/JJr\

f t I Ik l t l i

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE,ALL CIVILIAN WORKERS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, EXPERIENCEDWAGE AND SALARY WORKERS

0 I t T t M 1 t I ! M t t f t t I t I I T T t I I I T f T f

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE,MARRIED MEN

t ? M I I f M T I I t t t 1 I f f t I I t t T I f M I I t t t f t 01966 1967 1968- 1969 1970 1971 1972

SOURCE* DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19671968196919701971

1971: SeptOctNovDec

1972: JanFcbMarApr _MayJune -JulyAui* --SeptOct..

Unen(percen

for

Allworkers

3. 83.63.54. 95. 9

6. 0f). S6. 06. 0r>. 9f>. 7o. 95. I)6. 9t>. br>. [>5. t;f>. 5f>. 5

aploymemt of civilijce in grou

Experi-enced

wage andsalary

workers

Per3. 63.43. 34. 85. 7

Season a 115. 75. 5f). 7f>. Sr>. . 4t>. i>C>. 3/>. /'i">. 0f>. 5'i). ,"*/'/>. 2t~) . !3

b ratem laborP)Married

men(wife

present)

cent1.81.61. 52. 63. 2

if adjusted3. 5*5'. 03. 3

,v. o~. V2. 82. (j !2. 9S. 92. 7 !'. C>2. 82. 8

Laborforce

time lost l

4. 24.03. 95. 3(>. *1

ti. 3(>. ft

i 6\ ;;(>. ;; !

rf ft 1n. oC. 2/>. 96. 0

Over 40hours

20, 92020, 60020, 60S1 8, 9251 9, 095

1 '.), < M ) - t19, 1 (> ! )20, 2'1'J20, 2;1,',)19, 17019, ,'i0221, S7(i20, 23920, 47819, 9891 S, 8241 9, 02021, 88120, 735

Persons

35-40hours

Thousan32, 6H>32, 05834, 20133, 53735, 752

:u>, 88832, 95737, 49537, 42S30, 820MO, 40037, 51737, 59237, 40837, 00830, 14330, 10337, 40933, 804

at work iby hours

Total

ds of pers13, 29014, 78515, 21018, 22210, 298

Jnadjustet15, 08121, 0391 0, 2941 0, 7991 7, 00817, MOO17, 77410, 57110, 70015, 101)14, 0401 3, 80915, 17020, 979

n nonagriworked f

UiPart-ti

economi

Usuallyfull-

time 3

ons 16 yes1,060

895955

1,2011, 184

11, 1261, 0801, 1201 , 0451, 2201, 1471, 1721,081

9901, 1771,0341, 1901, 107fl980

cultural in>er week 2ider 35 home forB reasons

Usuallypart-time 4

irs of age853820855995

1, 256

1,0941, 1661, 1911, 1531, 1011, 0871, 1401, 1701, 1171,8782, 1401, 9271, 1366

1, 088

dustries

urs

Part-tieconomi 1971: Sept .

Oet*Nov *Decp-_ _ ~

1972: Jan*Feb"Mar1*Apr 9May 9 _ _ _ _June p.July*AugSept'.Oct 9

Week ended:1972; Oct 7

142128

Nov 4*11 9

A

Coveredemploy-

ment

Thou57, 97759, 99959, 526

_ _ _ _

11 progranInsuredunem-ploy-ment

(weeklyaver-age)

sands1, 1871,1772, 0702, 3132, 1742, 1292,3112,666370973, 1862, 9872,7062, 1061, 9512,0871,7641,5541,508

1,4861, 5221,4921, 5331.546

isTotal

benefitspaid(mil-Lidns

of dol-lars)

2, 191. 02, 298. 64, 170. 15, 963. 3

418.5388. 5430.7514.6581.3594.0601.6487, 3480.4478.7445. 6431.8384.2358.8

Insuredunem-ploy-ment

Weekly j1, 1111, 1011,8052, 1501,7391,7161,8792,2212,5242,4922,2802,0061,7361,6341,8231,8061,3881,368

1,3321, 3671,3411,384

1 1, 377

Initialclaims

iverage, t201200296295236252298358385293242237216250321213190214

233202214196242237

St

Exhaus-tions

lousands161625373331313237384139353027293233

ite prograInsured

ploymencent of

emploUnad-justed

Per OOO. O83.733. 6S3. 5S3. 6

Data relate to production workers or nonsupervisory employee:2 Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 33.

* Includes eating and drinking places".14

Source: Department of Labor.


AVERAGE HOURLY AND WEEKLY EARNINGS - SELECTED INDUSTRIESAverage hourly earnings of private nonfarm production workers rose 1 cent (not seasonally adjusted) in October to$3.73. Compared to a year earlier, hourly earnings were up 6% percent and weekly earnings were up 71/2 percent.

DOLLARS DOLLARS

AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

MANUFACTURING

1969

CONTRACTCONSTRUCTION

TOTAL NONAGRICULTURALPRIVATE

RETAIL TRADE

1970 1971

240

200

160

120

80

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

1972 1969

TOTAL NONAGRICULTURALPRIVATE

1970

RETAIL TRADE

1971 1972

SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[For production workers or nonsupervisory employees]

Period

19621963196419651966196719681969197019711971: Sept

OctNovDec

1972: JanFebMarAprMayJuneJulyAugSept vOct *

Average h _ _ _ _.1971: Sept

Oct.-NovDec__ _

1972: JanFebMarAprMay..JuneJulyAug.Sept Oct*

Totalindus-trial

produc-tion

72.276.581.789.297.9

100. 0105. 7110. 7106.7106. 8107. 1106.8107.4108. 1108. 7110.0111. 2112. 8113.2113.4113. 9115. 0115. 7116. 7

Mi

Total

71. 475.881. 289. 198.3

100. 0105. 7110. 5105. 2105. 2105. 7106. 1106. 0106.2107. 1108. 5109. 7111. 8112. 3112. 6113. 2114. 2115. 1116. 0

mufaeturi

Durable

69. 073. 579. 088. 599. 0

100.0105. 5110.0101.599. 499.3

100. 199. 199.5

100.4102. 1103. 4105.8106.3106.8107.7108.4109.4110. 6

Industryng

Non-durable

75. 179. 284. 490.097. 3

100.0106. 0111. 1110. 6113. 6115. 1114. 7115. 9116.0116. 8117. 8118.8120.3120.8121.3121.0122. 6123. 3124. 0

Mining

85. 689. 091. 193. 998. 4

100. 0103. 9107. 2109. 7107. 0105. 997.7

102. 5107. 8107.3107.2108. 5109. 0107.9108. 2107. 9107.4109. 2109.2

Utilities

70. 275. 181. 986. 993. 6

100. 0109. 4119. 5128. 3133. 9134.0135. 2136.0135. 8137.4139.7139. 7140. 2141. 1140. 9142. 5144. 1143. 0144. 6

Fii

Total

70. 874. 979.686. 896. 1

100. 0105. 8109. 0104. 5104. 7105. 5105. 4106. 1106. 2106. 4107. 6108. 2109. 8110.2110. 1110. 1111. 3111. 9113. 0

lal produ, 45036, 29637, 14136, 82237, 34237, 96937, 68338, 750

Sales 2

Durablegoodsstores

asonally a7, 0497, 8498, 1928, 3489, 2689, 6269, 52410, 9851 1, 29811, 83311, 69511, 88511, 33411, 47511, -15712, 08711, 97612, 28012, 25312, 46812, 84212, 59813, 095

Re

Non-durablegoodsstores

d justed14, 77315, 82817, 13817, 80319, 22220, 19721, 77023, 08623, 35723, 38623, 26923, 68923, 56223, 41123, 88824, 36324, 32024, 86124, 56924, 87425, 12725, 08525, 655

3tail

Total

31, 09434, 40538, 07338, 95241, 97345, 37646, 62652; 26151, 22352, 10452, 08351,91652, 26152, 45852, 48452, 63952, 81453, 40253, 29352, 94053, 10753, 661

Inventories

Durablegoodsstores

13, 31815, 25317, 25817, 27719, 16720, 64720, 34523, 80823, 44124, 14324, 03423, 87223, 80823, 79023, 67923, 67423, 74023, 91523, 66523, 19423, 03723, 608

0

Non-durablegoodsstores

17, 77619, 15220, 81521, 67522, 80624, 72926, 28128, 45327, 78227, 96128, 04928, 04428, 45328, 66828, 80528, 96529, 07429, 48729, 62829, 74630, 07030, 053

1 The term "business" also includes manufacturing (see paj/e 22).2 Monthly nverauo for year and total for month.2 Book value, end of period, seasonally adjusted.

NOTE.Total business and retail inventories revised beginning 1970.Source: Department of Commerce.

21


MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND NEW ORDERSManufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders (seasonally adjusted) rose in September, repeatins the pattenof August. Advance reports for durable goods in October indicate shipments rose while new orders declined.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS {SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)70

MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTSTOTAL

50

40

30

20

DURABLE GOODS

iiiMttr

MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTSme deficit in the trade balance on a seasonally adjusted basis increased in September by $50 million to a leve! ofE51 3 million.


2.5

2.0

1966

I/ SEE NOTE BELOW.SOURCE! DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

1972

COUNCIL Of* ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Millions of dollars]

Period

Monthly average:19631964196519661967196819691970 _1971 _ _ _

1971: AugSeptGetNovDec

1972: JariFebMarAprMayJuneJulvAusSept

Totaling ree

Season-ally ad-justed

3, 0784, >r>o?, 70S.*>, 160;;, iSW.v4, ssi:;, 806::, 891;;, 760;-;, 914.S', 9 Of)4, 0194, sos4, 158

]S(includ-xports) 1

Unad-justed

1, 8692, 1532, 2292,4582, 5862, 8393, 1113, 5553, 629

3, 3064, 2202, S20;;, 2214, Of>0:;, s 1 5;;, 7xo4, 3103, SS74, 1434, 015."., 000i'., 9403, 905

derchandi

Total * 2

1, 8452, 1232, 2012, 4212, 5542, 8023, 0663, 5023, 576

H

3, 3194, 1002, 7743, 177;;, D'.iu3, 700"> 7 * ' * 4, 2503, S 1 24, 0743, 9423, 0023, 8743, 895

se exportDomesti

Food,bever-ages,

and to-bacco

349386377432392383370422423

} ad j u s t e384508'J943!)f>5305004S542039050S52S4 DC,54 I594

s

3 exportsCrudemate-rialsand

fuels

3153613563673944 05417

5837

i15SO947 1440727110705571047

478

Manu-fac-

turedgoods

1, 1911, 3771, 4531, 002l t 7371, 9Kf>2, 2322, 4 4 f >2, 537

2, 3532, 9342, 021)2, 2472, 7382, 0)012, 0323, 1 192, 7542, 9 1 72, 70,22, 5432, 7152, 745

ToSeason-ally ad-justed

-

,6>, 928Jh SS7.*>', f>S$8, 5T.9;/, /

U.S. BALANCES ON GOODS, SERVICES, AND TRANSFERSPreliminary data indicate a third quarter deficit for merchandise trade of $6.7 billion at a seasonally adjusted annudrate. This $1.1 billion decline in the deficit over the second quarter is also reflected by the preliminary figures for thebalance on goods and services, which declined from a deficit of $6.2 billion in the second quarter to one of $4.4billion in the third quarter of 1972,


8


SEASOKALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

BALANCE ON GOODSAND SERVICES

-8

-10

MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE

1966

SOURC& DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

19661967__1968196919701971 .

1971: IIIIII...!.__

1972: ! * _ _ _II *...Ill

M

Ex-ports

29, 28730, 63833, 57636, 41741, 96342, 770

44, 06842, 84045, 91638, 25647, 16445, 78049, 088

erehandis1966 1967 1968

rt..MU---* \

1969

CURRENCYAND.DEPOSITS

M i l l ! i J t ! !1970 1971

1,100

1,000

900

800

700

600

1972

500

400

300

SOURCEi BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIl OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted]

Period

1965: Dec1966: Dec1967: Dec1968: Dec1969: Dec1970: Dec1971: Dec1971: Sept

Oct.. , . _NovDec

1972: JanFebMarAprMay _ _JuneJulvAug._Sept Oct *

Totalliquidassets

557. 7588. 2637. 5694,6719.7770.6850. 5831. 6838. 3842. 8850.5858. 2867. 8876. 6886. 0894. 2904. 0913. 9921. 5930. 0 i937. 7 Ii

Total

447. 4469.6516. 0559. 6576.2623. 6709. 3692. 6698. 1703.0709. 8719.7729. 6738.3745. 2751. 0758. 0766.6773.4780.3787.1

Currc

Cur-rency

36. 338. 340. 443. 446. 049. 052. 551. 952.252. 252. 552. 853. 253. 754.054.454. 754.955.055.555.9

sncy and

Demanddeposits

115. 5117. 3125. 2135. 2138. 1144. 7153.4153.5153. 3153. 0153. 4153. 8155. 6157.4158. 4158.2158. 5160.8161. 7162.2162.8

deposits

Time d

Com-mercialbanks

125.2136. 8156. 2174. 2177. 0198. 8232. 2224. 0226. 5228. 9232. 2237. 2240.2242. 3243.7246. 2249. 2251.0253.0255.4257. 6

eposits

Nonbankthrift

institu-tions

170.4177.3194. 2206. 8215. 2231. 1271. 7263.1266. 1268. 9271.7275.8280. 5284. 9289. 1292. 2295. 6299.8303.6307.3310.8

U.S. Gment se

Savingsbonds

49. 550. 151. 051. 451. 151. 353. 753. 153. 353. 553. 753. 954.254. 554. 855. 155. 355. 655. 956. 156. 4

rovern-curities

Short-term

market-able se-curities

38.243. 339. 546. 862. 553.039. 241.741. 040.639.236.635. 936.036. 537. 138.538.237. 737.938.0

Nego-tiablecertifi-

cates ofdeposit

15.515. 019.522. 7

9. 123. 230. 228. 129. 228. 930.229. 930. 530.231. 633.234. 035.036. 337. 237.5

Com-mercialpaper

7. 110. 211. 514.220. 819.517. 716. 116. 716. 817.718. 117. 717.717.917.918. 118.518. 4IS. 618. 7

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

30Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BANK LOANS, INVESTMENTS, DEBITS, AND RESERVESCommercial bank loans and investments (seasonally adjusted) increased at a 12.1 percent annual rate in October,bringing the advance in the first 10 months of the year to a 13.7 percent annual rate. Net borrowed reserves wereroughly steady at $341 million.


ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, END OF MONTH

500

400

300

200 .l-

100

1. M T M M I I ?

BANK LOANS

INVESTMENTS IN OTHER SECURITIES\

t i t

INVESTMENTS INU.S. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES

t I f ! I I 1 ! M1966 1967 1968

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM

1969

ttM,

1970

,.""""" ......... "*

f f f f ! I f I ] \ !J

500

400

300

200

100

1971 1972


End of period

1966196719681969197019711971: Oct

NovDec

1972: Jan _FebMar-Apr _MavJuneJulvAugSept *Oct

1 Debits durir is period

p.S. Governine it.- Averages 01 ( a l l y fU:ur Effective Jn K> J'.MHi,(about .*1.1 bil l if n) are rx40. 4

to dnnmndis. A n n i i H l talanees uccinclcd from 1>ort-hnport

All(seaso

L

Total,exclud-

ing inter-bank

3 213. 9231.3258.2

4 279. 4292. 0

5 320. 6317. 0318. 7320. 6325. 7328. 5333.83,35. 9341. 9:M;>. 7IMS. 4.",/">(>. 2: > ( > ( ) . o;;r7. 2

doposit :vce- ~"

A \ 1 ! ! ! 1 1 1 ! ! 1V 1967

JNSTV

pX '- IT"^ ^

1 1 1 1 ! i f 1 1 ! 1

1968

SEASON;

M.MENT CREDIT EXTE1

I ! 1 ( f 1 1 f 1 ! !1969

M.LY ADJUSTED (ENLARGEDENDED

~-~-~SZ?^' -**-i 1

INSTALMENT C

1 1 1 1 ! 1 I f I 1 |1970

SCALE]

' ^

[-*-

REDIT REPAID

! 1 I 1 1 1 1 ! I 1 T1971

^jf*^"^,^ " *""""

? f r f i I f I i f ?1972

t ! 1 1 ! I f ! ? f IN1973 M

U17

1ft

8

6

SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS


Period

196319641965 .-1966196719681969197019711971: Aug

SeptGetNovDec

1972: JanFebMarAprMay__ _ _JuneJulyAugSept

Consu

Total

71, 73980, 26889, 88396, 239

100, 783110, 770121, 146127, 163138, 394131, 593132, 968133, 755135, 415138, 394137, 426136, 941137, 879139, 410141, 450143, 812145, 214147, 631148, 976

mer crediti

Total i

55, 48662, 69270, 89376, 24579, 42887, 74597, 105

120, 064111, 295105, 924107, 073107, 775109, 088111, 295110, 757110, 510111, 257112, 439114, 183116, 365117, 702119, 911121, 193

outs tan dinmadjusted"Instalment

Automo-bile

paper

22, 25424, 93428, 43730, 01029, 79632, 94835, 52735, 18438, 66437, 49737, 81238, 19338, 57638, 66438, 45038, 51638, 85339, 34840, 06341, 01941, 60342; 32342, 644

g (end of \

Personalloans

15, 61817, 84820, 23721, 66223, 23525, 93228, 65230, 34532, 86531, 54431, 85231, 99332, 35532, 86532, 86233, 01233, 27233, 60634, 07734, 58834, 83235, 45035, 755

>eriod;

Non-instal-ment 2

16, 25317, 57618, 99019, 99421, 35523, 02524, 04125, 09927, 09925, 66925, 89525, 98026, 32727, 09926, 66926, 43126, 62226, 97127, 26727, 44727, 51227, 72027, 783

Consumand r

To

Extended

63, 59170, 67078, 66182, 83287, 17199, 984

109, 146112, 158124, 28110, 61010, 82710, 71811, 15710, 88611, 11610, 95211, 74111, 37411, 68712, 05711, 68712, 48411, 953

er instalmeepaid (seastal

Repaid

56, 82563, 47070, 46377, 48083, 98891, 66799, 786

107, 199115, 050

9, 7099,7259,8439,9659,976

10, 01510, 06910, 42710, 38410, 35510, 67110, 59310, 84110, 667

mt credit eonally adji

Automot

Extended

22, 12624, 04627, 20827, 19226, 32031, 08332, 55329, 79434, 8733,0063, 1233,0163, 1213,0513,0893, 1003,1763, 1623,2743,4123,2983,4913, 368

xtendedis ted)ile paper

Repaid

19, 25421, 36923, 70625, 61926, 53427, 93129, 97430, 13731, 3932,6692,6892,6732,6762,7152,7952,7762,8312,8672,8192,9222,9172,8962, 873

Mortgagedebt out-standing,nonfarm,1- to 4-

houses 3

182, 200197, 600212, 900223, 600236, 100251, 200266, 800280, 200307, 800

299, 700

307, 800

314, 100

324, 600

9 335, 100-

iAlso includes other consumer goods paper, and repair and modernizationloans, not shown separately.2

Consists of single-payment loans, charge accounts, and service credit.2 End of period, unadjusted.

32

NOTE.Consumer credit revised beginning 1965.Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Home

Loan Bank Board.


BOND YIELDS AND INTERESTVirtually all market interest rates declined from mid-October to mid-November. One of the most notable decreaseswas in yields on long-term Treasury bonds.

PERCENT PER ANNUM10

PERCENT PER' ANNUM10

CORPORATE Aaa BONDS(MOODY'S)

1966 1972

SOURCE: SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

196419651966196719681969___197019711971: Sept _ _

Oct _NovDec

1972: JanFobMarA prjVlavJuno. . .Ju lv\ 5 1 < r

Sept ^ . _ _ _ _OctNov

Week ended :1972: Oct ! : > _ _

20 __127

Nov 3__10..17 !

U.S. Gov. 723}. 6485. S744. 059'!. 0144. 6514. 719

4. 7434. 8184. 71.24, 7674. 6684. 775

irnment seen]3-5 yearissues 2

4. 064.225. 165.075.596. 857. 375. 775. 965. 685. 505. 425. 335. 515. 74o. 015. 69r>. 775. 865. 926. 166. 11

6. 106. 116. 106. 106.056. 00

[Percentrity yields

Taxablebonds 3

4. 154.214. 654,855. 266. 120. 585. 745. 565. 465. 485. 625. 625. 675. 665. 745. 645. 595. 595. 595. 705. 69

5.705. 705. 655. 595. 52

6 5. 47

per annum]High-grademunicipal

bonds(Standard &

Poor's) 43. 223. 273. 823. 984. 515. 816. 515. 705.525. 245. 305. 365. 255. 335. 305. 455. 265.375. 395. 295.365. 20

5. 175. 245. 145. 065. 105. 03 1

Corpora(Moo

Aaa

4.404. 495. 135. 516.187. 03a 047.397.447.397. 267. 257. 197.277.247. 307. 307. 237.217. 197. 227.21

7.227. 217. 197. 187. 16

6 7. 12

;e bondsdy's)

Baa

4.834.875.676.236.947. 819. 11a 56a 598.488.38a 388.23a 238.248.24a 238.208.238. 198.09a 06

a 07a 068.05a 048.028.00

Primecommercial

paper4-6

months3.974.385. 555. 105.907.837. 725. 115.755. 544. 924.744. 083. 934.174.584. 514. 644. 854. 825. 135. 31

5. 305. 355. 315. 255. 25

6 5. 25

FHAnew homemortgageyields 5

5.455.466.296.557.13a 199. 057.787. 927. 847. 757. 627. 597. 497.467. 457.507. 537. 547. 547. 557. 567. 57

1 Rate on new issues within period. 2 Selected note and bond issues.8 April 1953 to date, bonds due or callable 10 years and after.4 Weekly data are Wednesday figures.5 Data for first of the month, based on the maximum permissible interest rate(7 percent beginning February 13, 1971) and 30-year mortgages paid in 15 years.

8 Not charted.Sources: Department of Housing and Urban Development, Treasury Depart-

ment. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Standard & Poor'sCorporation, and Moody's Investors Service. '


COMMON STOCK PRICES, YIELD, AND EARNINGSThe stock market rose strongly in the 4 weeks ended mid-November. All sectors of the market participated in theadvance.

Index, 1941-43=10 Index, 1941-43=10

110

COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX FOR500 COMMON STOCKS

f 1 ! I 1 I 1 1 \ 1

110

90

80

70

PERCENTMONTHLY

DIVIDEND YIELD ON COMMON STOCKS

RAl25

PERCENT

^^

/ l i l t1966

/ "~1i i i

1967

PRICE/EARNINGS

** "

i i i1968

RATIO ON COMMC\

-___ \

1 ! 1

1969

DN STOCKS

i i i1970

1 ! - T

19711 1 ? js

1972

25-

20

15

10

SOURCE, STANDARD & POOR'S CORPORATION COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Period

19661967__19681969197019711971: Get

NovDec_>

1972: JanFebMarAprMayJune _JulyAug SeptOct

Week ended:1972: Oct 6

132027

Nov 31017

Total

85.2691. 9398.6997. 8483. 2298. 2997. 2992. 7899. 17

103. 30105. 24107. 69108. 81107. 65108. 01107. 21111. 01109. 39109. 56109. 81109. 18107. 95110. 70112. 46113. 644

114. 79

Total

91.0899. 18

107. 49107. 1391. 29

108. 35107. 28102. 21109. 67114. 12116. 86119. 73121. 34120. 16120. 84119. 98124. 35122. 33122. 39122. 83122. 01120. 49123. 61125. 51126. 78128. 05

Price iIndustrials

Capitalgoods

1941-^84.8696. 96

105. 77103. 7587. 87

102. 80100. 6695.51

103. 78109. 69113. 90116. 89120. 19119. 65120. 92119. 13124. 47121. 63119. 50121. 46119. 48117. 28119. 77121. 20120. 26121. 68

ndex l

Consumers'goods

13=1074. 1079. 1886.3387. 0680. 2299.78

101. 3197. 47

103. 92106. 45109. 42113. 20115. 05112. 67113. 43112. 57116. 17113. 19112. 94113. 64113. 09111. 20113. 82116. 90119. 04119. 52

Publicutilities

68. 2168. 1066.4262. 6454. 4859. 3357. 4155. 8657. 0760. 1957. 4157.7355.7054. 9453. 7353. 4754. 6655. 3656. 6655.6656.0256.3157. 7959.3160. 1160. 80

Railroads

46. 3446.7248.8445. 9532. 1341. 9444. 5841. 1943. 1745. 1645. 6646.4847. 3845.0643. 6642. 0043.2842. 3741.2041.5941.5341.2040.8040.7141.5642.27

Dividendyield 2(percent)

3. 403.203.073. 243. 833. 143. 163.313. 102. 962. 922.862.832.882. 872. 902. 802.832.822.812.822,862.802.752.744 2. 75

Price/earningsratio 3

15.1517.4817.7416.4815.6818.50

17.91

18.45

17. 95

34Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.


FEDERAL FINANCEFEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBTIn the first 3 months of fiscal 1973 there was a deficit of $2.0 billion; a year earlier the deficit was $7.8 billion.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS260

140

100

{ENLARGED SCALE)

140

100

-20

-40

SURPLUS (-f) OR DEFICIT (-}(ENLARGED SCALE)

+20

J I I L J t | l I I1962 1963 1964 1965 *1966 1967 196S 1969 1970 " 1971' 1972 1973^

FISCAL YEARS

-20

-40

J/ ESTIMATESOURCES: TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year:1961 _ _ . . _ _ _ _ _1962 _ _ ._19631964

19651966196719681969

1970197119721973 2

Cumulative totals forfirst 3 months:

Fiscal vear 1972Fiscal vear 1973 _

Receipts

94.499. 7

106. 6112. 7

116. 8130. 9149. 6153. 7187. 8

193. 71 88. 4.208. 0225. 0

48, 655. 6

Outlays

97. 8106. 8111. 3118. 6

118. 4131, 7158. 31 78. 8184, 5

1 96. 6211.4231. 9250. 0

56. 457. 6

Surplus ordeficit ( )

-3.47. 1

4. 8-5. 9

-1. 6-3. 8-8.7

25. 23. 2

-2. 8-23. 0 23. 2 25. 0

-7.8 2.0

Federal debt (

Total i

292. 9303. 3310.8316. 8323. 2329. 5341. 3369.8367. 1382. 6409. 5437. 3477.0

422.2444.6

end of period)

Held bvthe public

238. 6248. 4254. 5257.6

261. 6264. 7267. 5290. 6279.5

284. 9304. 3323. 8356. 0

313.432a8

1 Excludes non-intnrosi,-bonring public debt securities bold by IMF.

" Estimates.Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget.


FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE ANDOUTLAYS BY FUNCTIONIn the first 3 months of fiscal 1973 receipts were $7.0 billion higher than a year earlier while outlays were $1.2 billion-higher.


180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

OUTLAYS

NONDEFENSE

NATIONAL DEFENSE

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

401962 1963 1964 1965 1966

J/ESTIMATESSOURCES. TREASURY DEPARTMENT AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

1967 1968FISCAL YEARS

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973


[Billions of dollars]

Period

Fiscal year:1961 -19621963___19641965 .19661967.._1968196919701971197219731

Cumulative totals forfirst 3 months:

Fiscal year 1972._.Fiscal year 1973.. _

Total

94.499.7

106.6112.7lias130.9149.6153.7187.8193.7188.42oae225.0

48.655.6

Recei

Individualincometaxes

41.345. 647. 648.74a 855.461.56R787.290.486.294. 799.0

22.726.7

DtS

Corpo-rationincometaxes

2LO20.52L623.525.530. 134. 028.736.732.826.832.235.5

5,66.7

Other

32. 133. 637.440.542. 645. 354. 156. 363.970.575.481.790.5

20.322.2

Total

97. 8106. 8111. 3118. 6na 4134. 715a3i7as184.5196.6211.4231.9250.0

56.457.6

Natio]

Total

47.451. 152. 353. 649. 656. 870. 180. 581. 280.377.778.3

(2)

ias16,4

(aal defense

Depart-ment ofDefense,military

43. 346.94a 149. 646. 054.267.577.477.977.274.575.1

(*)

16.316.1

)utlays

Interna-tionalaffairsand

3.44.54. 14. 14.34. 54.54. 63. 83.62.93.8

(?)

1.0.8

Healthand

incomesecurity

22.123.725.526.827.431.537.843.749.356.770. 281. 5(2)

1&720.0

In-terest

aia39.29.8

10.411.312.613.715,8ia 319.620.6

5.15.3

Other

16.819. 220.324.226.730.633.236.234.437.741. 147.6(2)

14.715. 1

1 Estimates.a Detail not available.

Sources: Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget.


FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASISFederal receipts rose about $5 billion (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter and Federal expendituresdeclined about $5 billion. The deficit of $111/2 billion was $10 billion below that in the second quarter and thelowest since the first quarter of 1970.

BILL!260

-Txn

onn

200

IRfl

1^0

140

120

+20

ONS OF DOLLARS

-

-

"

-

f" *!""-

xi ! 1 !V

EXPENDITURES\

-1^"* ^s**^

-^"^

1 ! !

5EAS(

^ta-^ ***^)^^^

'''^S

UNITED STATESGOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTSWASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2

POSTAGE AND FEES PAIDU.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

First-Class Mail

ContentsTOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING

PageThe Nation's Income, Expenditure, and Saving 1Gross National Product or Expenditure 2National Income 3Sources of Personal Income 4Disposition of Personal Income 5Farm Income 6Corporate Profits 7Gross Private Domestic Investment 8Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment 9

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGESStatus of the Labor Force 10Selected Measures of Unemployment and Part-Time Employment 11Unemployment Insurance Programs 12Nonagricultural Employment 13Weekly Hours of WorkSelected Industries 14Average Hourly and Weekly EarningsSelected Industries 15

PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITYIndustrial Production 16Production of Selected Manufactures 17Weekly Indicators of Production 18New Construction 19New Housing Starts and Applications for Financing 20Business Sales and InventoriesTotal and Trade 21Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and New Orders 22Merchandise Exports and Imports 23U.S. Balances on Goods, Services, and Transfers 24U.S. Overall Balances on International Transactions 25

PRICESConsumer Prices 26Wholesale Prices 27Prices Received and Paid by Farmers 28

MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETSMoney Stock 29Private Liquid Asset HoldingsNonfinancial Investors 30Bank Loans, Investments, Debits, and Reserves 31Consumer and Real Estate Credit 32Bond Yields and Interest Rates 33Common Stock Prices, Yield, and Earnings 34

FEDERAL FINANCEFederal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt 35Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function 36Federal Sector, National Income Accounts Basis 37

NOTE.Detail in these tables may not add to totals because of rounding. Unless other-wise stated, all dollar figures are current dollars.P Indicates preliminary and not available.

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402Price 25 cents per copy, $3 per year; $4 foreign. Domestic air mall, $3.60 additional per year.

38 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRIHTIMS OFFICE: 1971Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

11-1972

Documents

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