10 - tefficient

tefficient AB www.tefficient.com 11 December 2020 1

Industry analysis #4 2020

Mobile data – first half of 2020 (updated 11 Dec rev. 2)

The growth in mobile data wasn’t stopped

by a pandemic But growth is unevenly distributed and few countries could grow ARPU

Tefficient’s 29th public analysis

of the development and drivers

of mobile data compares 44

countries from all regions of

the world.

Although a pandemic hit the

world in 1H 2020, usage grew

in every single country. But the

growth was unevenly

distributed – some countries

grew faster than before while

others grew slower than before.

And as a likely consequence of

the pandemic, few countries

were capable of turning usage growth into ARPU growth? Read on.

Finland, Taiwan, Bahrain and Latvia lead the world in average data usage per subscription. But

it is Croatia that leads the world in usage growth; 128% between the first half of 2019 to the

first half of 2020. The Netherlands, Australia and Norway had the slowest growth.

Data-only continues to define the average mobile data usage although the share of base is

limited. In all but two reported markets, data-only’s share of total traffic grew – a trend that

started in 2019, before Corona. We attribute this to FWA.

Using mobile data has never been cheaper but the erosion in the revenue per gigabyte varies a

lot between markets. Croatia had the fastest erosion, 58%, and India (!) the slowest, 13%.

22,4

21,5

18,1

14,2

12,0

11,8

11,4

11,2

9,9

9,3

8,9

8,6

7,9

7,8

7,3

7,0

6,4

6,2

5,2

5,0

4,8

4,2

4,0

3,9

3,7

3,5

3,5

3,5

3,1

2,4

2,0

18,4

18,1

14,1

15,4

10,2

8,3

9,7

6,2

9,0

8,0

9,4

7,1

6,9

8,7

7,3

6,8

6,4

6,4

7,1

5,3

6,8

5,1

4,4

5,8

4,5

3,6

3,4 3

,7

2,8 3

,2

2,5 2

,9

2,7

2,5 2,7

2,7

2,7

2,2 2,3

1,7 1,8

1,7

1,5

0

5

10

15

20

25

FI

TW BH LV

MY

LT

AT

HR

QA

DK

EE

CL IE IS KR

2)

AU

CN

1)

SE

US

IN CH FR

TR PL

3)

4)

JP SG IT NO PE

RO ES

UK

MX

HU

HK

LU

5)

NZ

NL

CA

PT

BE

DE

GR

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

1H 2020 FY 2019


Data usage is still growing in every single country

Figure 1 shows the development of mobile data usage for 44 countries where regulators1 report mobile data

traffic. The usage is shown per SIM per month – and in Figure 1 we are including all2 SIMs, also M2M/IoT

SIMs.

Figure 1. Development of mobile data usage per SIM (incl. M2M) per month – the legend shows the ranking3

Starting from the top of the chart, Finland and Taiwan are defending the number one and two positions in

the world when it comes to mobile data usage. The average Finnish SIM card carried 22.4 GB of data per

month in 1H 2020. 66% of the Finnish SIMs (M2M included) had unlimited data volume in June 2020. If

excluding M2M, 78%. If excluding also voice-only SIMs, 84%. No other country is as unlimited as Finland.

The average Taiwanese SIM carried 21.5 GB per month. Unlimited is behind Taiwan’s usage development

as well. The Taiwanese operators – there are five MNOs – have tried to cool off the market by attempting to

1 Exception: USA, where the data is from the industry body CTIA 2 All SIMs in a market included; even the SIMs that used no or little data. We think it provides a better comparison than usage

per ’mobile broadband subscription’ even if it lowers the average mobile data usage numbers somewhat. 3 Of the countries that will report 1H 2020, Denmark, Iceland and Greece have not yet reported. Japan has to date just reported figures

for Q1 2020.

FI

TW

BH

LV

MY

LT ATHRQA

DK

CLIEKR

2) AU CN1) SEIN

FRTR

3) 4) JPSGIT

NO PEES UK

HK

NLPT

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

FI TW BH LV MY LT AT HR QA DK EE

CL IE IS KR 2) AU CN 1) SE US IN CH FR

TR PL 3) 4) JP SG IT NO PE RO ES UK MX

6) HU HK LU 5) NZ NL CA CZ PT BE DE GR

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in country2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded3) Traffic for last month each quarter4) Q1 2020 for 1H 20205) Each year: 12 months ending June6) M2M included from 2019 hence no history here


move the unlimited price points upwards while discontinuing unlimited for customers that have run out of

binding, but the discipline isn’t there – the usage grew as quickly as in Finland but ARPU is still in decline.

Bahrain and Latvia (only annual reporting) are shadowing the leader duo. Malaysia’s data usage growth

continues and its number 5 position was strengthened in 1H 2020.

The M2M reporting dilemma

Regulators’ reporting of M2M/IoT SIMs continues to create a challenge for the comparability between countries. A

growing problem is international M2M SIMs that are registered in one country but used somewhere else. Sweden is a

good example. The country regulator, PTS, reports 15.9 million M2M SIMs in Sweden – a figure that doubles the total

SIM base if added to the regular SIM base. We are therefore happy that PTS now reports the number M2M SIMs that are

active in Sweden; 3.8 million, i.e. just 24% of the total M2M base. This has allowed us to recalculate a more

representative mobile data usage figure for Sweden when including M2M.

The same issue emerges in Austria where Deutsche Telekom group registers many of its international M2M SIMs. The

number of ‘Austrian’ M2M SIMs as reported by RTR grew 28% between June 2019 and June 2020 – to 5.5 million.

Similar to how it was for Sweden previously, Austria’s average mobile data usage per SIM thus looks lower when

including M2M SIMs than what it realistically is. Luckily Austria’s regulator is one of those breaking out M2M SIMs in its

reporting allowing a like-for-like comparison of mobile data usage per non-M2M SIM, see Figure 2 and Figure 4.

Figure 2 is a variant of Figure 1 but with M2M SIMs excluded. As the M2M SIMs typically carry significantly

less traffic than the regular SIMs, this makes the usage figures look higher.


Figure 2. Development of mobile data usage per SIM (excl. M2M) per month – the legend shows the ranking4

Since only a fraction of the countries separate out the data traffic associated with M2M SIMs in their

reporting (kudos to Norway, Sweden, Czech and Greece), the assumption for most of the countries in Figure

2 is that the M2M data usage is zero. This is of course not correct and as we expect M2M/IoT SIMs to carry

significantly more traffic in future, we think that Figure 1 provides the most accurate comparison.

With 26.4 GB per non-M2M SIM per month, Finland tops also Figure 2. Bahrain follows with 20.4 GB.

Taiwan and Malaysia have disappeared from the top five here as the M2M SIM number isn’t broken out in

these countries.

The legends of Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the ranking of the 44 studied countries. But since it’s difficult to

spot them all, Figure 3 and 4 offer an easier visualisation. First including M2M:

4 Countries for which the regulator doesn’t break out the M2M SIMs have been excluded

FI

BH

LV

AT

LT

HRDK

IEEE

KRCLSE

FR

TRIT

NO

ES UK

NL

PT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020

GB

pe

r S

IM (

ex

cl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

FI BH LV AT LT HR DK IE EE KR

IS CL SE FR CH TR IT PL NO ES

UK NL LU BE CZ CA PT DE 6) HU GR

6) M2M included from 2019 hence no values since


Figure 3. Mobile data usage per SIM (incl. M2M) per month, 1H 2020 and FY 2019

And in Figure 4 excluding M2M:

Figure 4. Mobile data usage per SIM (excl. M2M) per month, 1H 2020 and FY 2019

22,4

21,5

18,1

14,2

12,0

11,8

11,4

11,2

9,9

9,3

8,9

8,6

7,9

7,8

7,3

7,0

6,4

6,2

5,2

5,0

4,8

4,2

4,0

3,9

3,7

3,5

3,5

3,5

3,1

2,4

2,0

18,4

18,1

14,1

15,4

10,2

8,3

9,7

6,2

9,0

8,0

9,4

7,1

6,9

8,7

7,3

6,8

6,4

6,4

7,1

5,3

6,8

5,1

4,4

5,8

4,5

3,6

3,4 3

,7

2,8 3

,2

2,5 2

,9

2,7

2,5 2,7

2,7

2,7

2,2 2,3

1,7 1,8

1,7

1,5

0

5

10

15

20

25

FI

TW BH LV

MY

LT

AT

HR

QA

DK

EE

CL IE IS KR

2)

AU

CN

1)

SE

US

IN CH FR

TR PL

3)

4)

JP SG IT NO PE

RO ES

UK

MX

HU

HK

LU

5)

NZ

NL

CA

PT

BE

DE

GR

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

1H 2020 FY 2019

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in country2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded

3) Traffic for last month each quarter4) Q1 2020 for 1H 2020

5) Each year: 12 months ending June

26,4

20,4

16,6

13,0

12,1

11,7

11,0

10,0

9,5

9,1

8,3

6,7

6,4

5,6

4,1

3,2

2,2

21,5

15,7

17,7

12,7

8,9

6,5

9,4

8,4

10,7

8,4

9,6

7,2

7,8

6,4

7,6

4,8

4,4

6,2

4,8

2,8 3

,3

2,9 3,0

2,6

2,3

1,8 2

,1

1,6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

FI

BH LV

AT

LT

HR

DK IE EE

KR IS CL

SE

FR

CH

TR IT PL

NO ES

UK

NL

LU

CA

BE

PT

DE

GR

GB

pe

r S

IM

(e

xcl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

1H 2020 FY 2019


The countries with the lowest data usage in both Figure 3 and Figure 4 are Greece, Germany, Belgium,

Portugal and Canada. The German, Belgian and Canadian regulators do not report traffic statistics half-

yearly – whereas Greece’s regulator will do, but it’s not yet available.

Figure 5 is a zoom-in on the lower end of Figure 1.

Figure 5. Development of mobile data usage per SIM (incl. M2M) per month [zoom-in on low end]

Singapore, Italy, Peru and Spain have demonstrated good usage growth in 1H 2020 whereas the

Netherlands hardly had any.

SGIT

NO

PERO

ES

UKMX 6) HU

HK

NL

PT

BE

DE

GR

0

1

2

3

4

5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

FI TW BH LV MY LT AT HR QA DK EE

CL IE IS KR 2) AU CN 1) SE US IN CH FR

TR PL 3) 4) JP SG IT NO PE RO ES UK MX

6) HU HK LU 5) NZ NL CA CZ PT BE DE GR

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in country2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded3) Traffic for last month each quarter4) Q1 2020 for 1H 20205) Each year: 12 months ending June6) M2M included from 2019 hence no history here


Data usage growth fastest in Croatia – more than doubled y-o-y

Figure 6 shows the growth in average usage per SIM (incl. M2M) between 1H 2019 and 1H 2020.

Figure 6. Development of mobile data usage per SIM 1H 2019-1H 2020

Croatia outpaced every other market in mobile data usage growth. The average Croatian SIM used 128%

more mobile data in 1H 2020 than what it did in 1H 2019. Singapore’s usage grew 79%, Lithuania’s 67%,

Peru’s 65%, Italy’s 63% and Spain’s 62%. Previous growth powerhouses India, Mexico and China have

had more modest growth rates this time.

As we touched upon already in our FY 2019 analysis, Singapore went from a growth laggard to a growth

leader as a direct consequence of a change in the competitive landscape. Singapore now has a fourth MNO,

TPG. As shown in Figure 7, TPG launched its first commercial product – a plan with 50 GB for 10 SGD – as

late as 31 March 2020, but TPG launched a free, unlimited data, trial service in December 2018. It had an

immediate effect on the total mobile data traffic of Singapore – a parallel to how Jio’s initially free

proposition totally changed the mobile data consumption of the Indian market. It will be interesting to follow

if Singapore’s growth in mobile data traffic continues now that the free trial is over.

128%

79%

67%

65%

63%

62%

59%

58%

58%

46%

45%

43%

41%

37%

37%

35%

33%

33%

33%

33%

31%

31%

31%

30%

28%

28%

27%

19%

19%

17%

16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

HR

SG LT

PE IT ES

TR

HU

MY IN CL

MX

FR

PT IE RO

DK

CN

BH

KR

QA

UK

TW FI

AT

1)

SE

HK

3)

4)

JP NO

2)

AU

NL

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

tre

nd

1H

20

19

-1H

20

20


3) Traffic for last month each quarter4) Q1 2020 for 1H 2020

https://tefficient.com/arpu-doesnt-follow-usage-upwards-if-we-cant-monetise-gigabytes-then-what/


Figure 7. Development of mobile data traffic per quarter – Singapore

The growth laggards in Figure 6 are the Netherlands (16%), Australia (17%) and

Norway (19%5). Although COVID-19 measures might have influenced, we need to

mention that the two MNOs that drove unlimited into the Dutch market – T-Mobile

and Tele2 – merged in January 2019. Also Australia had a merger – between

Vodafone and TPG in July this year after long preparations – and although TPG wasn’t

a MNO, it had been quite successful as MVNO so the merger concentrated the mobile

market a bit further. In Norway, no mergers between MNOs happened, but the

market was effectively a duopoly for a long time until the third MNO, Ice, started its

mobile operation in 2015.

5 We don’t mention Japan as only Q1 2020 traffic statistics are available yet and we believe the launch of Rakuten Mobile in April could

have had an effect on the mobile data usage growth

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Mo

bil

e d

ata

tra

ffic

[P

B]

First commercial product launched 31 Mar 2020

Free trial service launched Dec 2018

The Netherlands,

Australia and

Norway had the

slowest usage

growth


Data-only rarely more than 20% of base, but defines usage

Although fixed wireless access seems to experience a renaissance with 5G, using mobile networks to

substitute fixed broadband is hardly something new. In some markets, like Finland and Austria, this has

been around for long. The take-up can be significant if the FWA/data-only offers are reasonably charged and

without usage caps. It also helps if the fixed broadband offering is weak with much DSL is the mix.

Since Q4 2017, the regulator RTR publishes the fixed data traffic of Austria. If we compare it to the mobile

data traffic, it’s obvious how important the mobile networks have become for the overall internet of the

country: In the second quarter of 2020, the mobile data traffic was 60% of the fixed data traffic.

Figure 8. Development of fixed and mobile data traffic in Austria

This takes us to Figure 9. It plots the average data usage per SIM vs. the data-only share of a country’s SIM

base.

43%44% 47%

47%

51%48% 53%

50%

53%

53%

60%of fixed

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Q4 2

017

Q1 2

018

Q2 2

018

Q3 2

018

Q4 2

018

Q1 2

019

Q2 2

019

Q3 2

019

Q4 2

019

Q1 2

020

Q2 2

020

Da

ta t

raff

ic [

PB

]

Fixed

Mobile


Figure 9. Mobile data usage vs. data-only share

In December 2019, 24% of the SIM base in Latvia was data-only. Although June 2020 isn’t reported, it

certainly looks as if Latvia is the leader in data-only share of base – and the average mobile data usage was

also high. In Finland data-only represented 19% of the base in June 2020 but usage was even higher than

in Latvia. Also Bahrain had a high data-only share – 17%. There are ten countries forming a central cluster

between 8% and 16%: Estonia, Sweden, Croatia, Denmark, Iceland, USA, Austria, Lithuania, Australia and

Poland.

The adherence to the regression line is relatively strong. As in all previous reports we therefore conclude

that data-only penetration is a significant driver of the average mobile data usage.

The easiest way for low-usage countries to grow data usage and expand the mobile

market would be to start addressing and monetising the data-only segment.

This seems to be effective particularly in markets where fast fixed broadband

networks (FTTH, FTTB or HFC) aren’t already available to a substantial share of the

households. The US wireless market leader Verizon launched its first 5G branded

service in 2018 to support a fixed wireless access (FWA) use case. Operators such as

Optus in Australia, 3 in the UK, Sunrise in Switzerland (right), 3 in Austria and DNA &

Elisa in Finland have all followed Verizon into 5G-based FWA. Figure 9 shows that

even a relatively low share of such data-only subscriptions could lift the average data

consumption significantly.

AT

NO

1) SE

NL

IE

TR

LT

2) AU

PT

13) FR

FI

ES

UK

DK

US

CA

EE

BE

CH

PL

IS

HU

RO

LV

GR

KR

HR

BH

LU

PE

DE

CL

14) FR

R² = 0,5737

0

5

10

15

20

25

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

Data-only share of SIM base

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in country2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded13) Excl. fixed 4G boxes14) Incl. fixed 4G boxes

1H 2020

FY 2019


Some of the countries in Figure 9 are also reporting the data-only traffic. For these countries, we can

compare the data-only penetration of the SIM base to its share of the total mobile data traffic, see Figure 10.

Figure 10. Data-only share of total traffic vs. data-only share of SIM base

With the exception of Romania, data-only SIMs carry a disproportionally high share of the data traffic:

Portugal 9.6x higher traffic per data-only SIM vs. any SIM

Norway 6.1x

Austria 5.8x

Lithuania 5.1x

Ireland 5.1x

Sweden 4.7x

Belgium 3.8x

Iceland 3.6x

Bahrain 3.1x

Finland 3.0x

France (incl. fixed 4G boxes) 2.9x

Luxembourg 2.8x

Australia 1.5x

AT

NO

1) SE

IE

LT

2) AU

PT

13) FR

FI

BE

IS

RO

GR

BH

8) LU

14) FR

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Da

ta-o

nly

sh

are

of

tota

l d

ata

tra

ffic

Data-only share of SIM base

1H 2020

FY 2019

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in country2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded8) Incl. all roaming-out traffic (not just data-only)13) Excl. fixed 4G boxes14) Incl. fixed 4G boxes


Greece 1.5x

Romania 0.3x

In addition to the countries in Figure 10, there is one which does not report data-only SIM base, but data-

only’s share of traffic: In China, only 3% of mobile data traffic wasn’t carried over regular mobile phones.

For the countries that are reporting both data-only traffic and the number of data-only subscriptions, we can

compare the average usage per data-only subscription, see Figure 11.

Figure 11. Mobile data usage per data-only SIM per month, 1H 2020 and FY 2019

Starting from the left, the average ‘4G box’ in France carried 168.8 GB of mobile

data per month in 1H 2020. This is significantly higher than for the other FWA-only

usage number in Figure 11: In Australia, the usage per FWA subscription was 61 GB in

Q2 2020 – actually a decline from the 66 GB reported for Q4 2019.

If instead looking at the whole data-only base (not just the FWA segment), Austria

leads with the average mobile data consumption per data-only SIM of 71.4 GB.

Finland had 67.9 GB but faster growth than Austria. Lithuania follows with 63.0 GB

– here the mobile data-only specialist Mezon pushed the traditional MNOs to embrace

168,8

61,0

71,467,9

63,0

51,646,5

33,2

25,120,3

12,2

3,5

143,0

66,0

59,2

51,847,4

34,230,3

24,3

31,5

22,1

15,7

10,3 8,76,6

3,0 2,4 1,2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

14)

FR

16)

AU

AT FI

LT

BH IE SE IS NO PT

2)

AU

8)

LU

12)

BE

13)

FR

GR

RO

GB

pe

r d

ata

-on

ly S

IM p

er

mo

nth

1H 2020 FY 2019

2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded8) Incl. all roaming-out traffic (not just data-only)

12) Traffic of 3 MNOs13) Excl. fixed 4G boxes

14) Per fixed 4G box16) Per FWA subscription, Q2 2020

Full data-only baseFWA-only base

The average

French ‘4G box’

consumed 169 GB

per month in 1H

2020


the data-only segment. There was good usage growth also in Bahrain and Ireland.

If 5G should become the fibre-over-radio solution that e.g. Verizon, Sunrise and others suggest, the data-

only FWA usage figure of France gives a taste of the usage that the solution must at least manage. Fixed

broadband usage is yet higher – often around 300 GB per month.

The appetite that operators show for FWA seems to make them let go of their anxiety for unlimited

within the data-only segment. Figure 12 shows something quite interesting.

Figure 12. Development in the data-only share of total mobile data traffic – for all reporting countries

Data-only’s share of traffic decreased until 2018. It’s not necessarily that the

absolute data-only traffic decreased, but the growth of the smartphone traffic has

been much quicker. But something happened in 2019 which continues in 1H 2020.

For a number of markets – Austria, Lithuania, Finland, Bahrain, Sweden, Portugal,

Ireland, France and China – data-only traffic gained market share in 1H 2010.

Of our markets, only Norway and Romania had a decline. It’s because of Corona,

right? No, that trend shift happened already in 2019. We attribute it to FWA and the

wider adoption of unlimited within operators’ data-only propositions.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1H 2020

Da

ta-o

nly

sh

are

of

tota

l d

ata

tra

ffic

AT

LT

CZ

FI

BH

IS

SE

PT

NO

IE

IT

BE

FR

GR

RO

CN

Data-only’s share

of total traffic

started to grow

again in almost all

markets


4G adoption a weakening driver of data usage – 5G a different story

If data-only defines the overall data usage, the same can’t really be said for 4G.

Figure 13 plots the average data usage per SIM vs. the 4G/5G share of the country SIM base. Taiwan leads

with 100% followed by Korea with 90% (Korea’s figure includes 5G). The adherence to the regression line

is weaker than in the previous data-only section.

Figure 13. Mobile data usage vs. 4G/5G share

While operators in countries with very low 4G penetration (such as Germany) often still report that 4G drives

data usage, Figure 13 shows that 4G in itself is a much weaker driver of traffic than data-only (compare with

Figure 10).

Taiwan had 100% of mobile data traffic (and 100% of subscriptions) on 4G. Korea had 99.99% of the

traffic on 4G or 5G but only 90% of the subscriptions.

KR

FR

SG3) 4) JP

1) SE

HK

LT

IE

DK

DE 12) BE

EE

TR

IS

RO

TW

CN

14) UKPE

MY

CL

R² = 0,2494

0

5

10

15

20

25

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

GB

pe

r S

IM (

incl.

M2

M)

pe

r m

on

th

4G/5G share of SIM base

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in country3) Traffic for last month each quarter4) Q1 2020 for 1H 202012) 4G share of 3 MNOs14) 4G share of base Dec 2019

1H 2020

FY 2019


Figure 14. 4G/5G share of total traffic vs. 4G/5G share of SIM base

4G/5G users are carrying a disproportionally high share of the data traffic – but in comparison to data-only,

the multipliers are much lower. They are also decreasing.

Lithuania 1.8x higher traffic per 4G/5G user vs. any SIM

Belgium 1.8x

France 1.7x

Ireland 1.3x

Turkey 1.4x

Sweden 1.5x

UK 1.2x

Denmark 1.2x

Korea 1.1x (includes 5G)

Taiwan 1.0x

In addition to the countries in Figure 14, there are four which do not report 4G’s SIM base, but 4G’s share of

traffic: In the Netherlands and India, 96% of mobile data traffic was over 4G. In Hungary it was 94% in Q1

2020 whereas Mexico had 80% of traffic over 4G – the lowest among reporting countries.

If comparing with Figure 14 it is clear that the 4G/5G multiplier drops with an increasing 4G/5G adoption. It

is, in other words, when 4G/5G still has a relatively low adoption that it makes a difference for the overall

KRFR 1) SE

LT

IE

DK

12) BE

TR

TW

10) UK

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

4G

/5

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ata

tra

ffic

4G/5G share of SIM base

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in Sweden10) 4G share of traffic May 2019, 4G share of base Dec 201912) 3 MNOs

1H 2020

FY 2019


data usage. Once 4G/5G has become more common, the effect of the early adopters is watered out and the

delta between a 4G/5G user and any SIM becomes smaller.

Over time, the 4G/5G penetration will grow – simply because new terminals will, by default, have 4G/5G –

but it will no longer have any strong impact on the average data usage.

If separating out just 5G, the story becomes a bit more exciting, though. Our example will have to be taken

from Korea as that is the only launched 5G market for where there is reporting of traffic6. Figure 15 shows

how the Korean 5G share of traffic has developed month by month when compared to the 5G share of base.

Figure 15. 5G share of total traffic vs. 5G share of SIM base – Korea per month since 5G launch

There are small variations between the months, but the 5G multiplier which initially was at 3x has now fallen

somewhat to 2.5x: With 10 million 5G subscriptions at the start of November 2020, 5G’s high data usage –

it was 26.6 GB in October 2020 – can’t be dismissed as an ‘early adopter’ thing.

The development in Korea is impressive and bodes well for the industry. It will be interesting to see if China

and Japan – two other countries where operators with launched 5G networks have started to report 5G

customer numbers – will be able to follow the Korean ‘gearing’ curve between base and traffic.

6 The Swedish regulator PTS did report it for Sweden, but as the commercial 5G networks weren’t really launched in 1H 2020, it is still

too early

April 2019

Oct 2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0% 5% 10% 15%

5G

sh

are

of

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l d

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ffic

5G share of SIM base

If 5G data usage would have been the same as the average data usage

Actual 5G slopemonth by month


A gigabyte has never been cheaper – but it doesn’t mean it’s cheap everywhere

Most mobile operators in mature markets aren’t attempting to monetise voice and SMS based on usage any

longer; they have instead made these allowances unlimited and included them in a flat fee. This means that

the last price-defining parameter for most mobile users is data volume. Even though more and more

operators introduce unlimited propositions, these are often the last step in a tiered data plan7 – which

means that price still, essentially, is about data volume.

Figure 16 plots the total mobile service revenue per consumed gigabyte8 against the average mobile data

usage per SIM and month.

Figure 16. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per consumed GB

The amber line shows where 15 EUR of ARPU is earned. Countries below it had an ARPU lower than 15

EUR; countries above an ARPU higher than 15 EUR.

There are a few countries where operators enjoy very high total revenue per consumed gigabyte: Canada

foremost, but also the cluster of Luxembourg, Belgium, New Zealand, Germany and Greece. The

7 There are exceptions to this, e.g. Finnish operators, Swisscom and Vodafone in Spain, the UK and most other European Vodafone

markets except Germany, where the price-defining parameter instead is data throughput. There are also operators mixing several

parameters such as volume, throughput, policy, zero-rating, video resolution, service bundling etc. 8 Attributing zero value to voice and messaging

NO

IE

AT

ES

KR

TR FR

2) AU

LT

NL

SG

UK

DK

1) SE

FI

DE

US

EE

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BE

HK

PL

CH

IS

CA

IT

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GR

CNIN

HR

3) MX LU5) NZ

0

5

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

GB

pe

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IM (

incl.

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Total mobile service revenue per GB [EUR]

15 EUR ARPU line


3) Revenue per GB for 2019 as not yet reported5) Each year: 12 months ending June

1H 2020

FY 2019


observation is based on the latest available data – FY 2019 (in New Zealand’s case the 12 months ending

June 2019). Greece will report 1H 2020 data, but it is not yet published.

It’s important to point out that our analysis looks at what the mobile operator industry de facto makes on

end-users, not what the best offer on the market currently is. In reality, most users are on old price plans

because they are still locked in by a contract – or because they have not bothered to find the best deal.

In the other end of the scale we find the countries where operators get the lowest

revenue per consumed gigabyte: India, Latvia, Lithuania, Taiwan, Finland,

China and Poland.

Looking at Figure 16 we can conclude – as in all our previous analyses on this topic

– that the key explanation to high mobile data usage is low effective revenue per

gigabyte: Bigger data buckets lead to lower revenue per GB – which, on

the other hand, increases usage. At least when customers can use those big

buckets also on data-only devices; see Figure 9.

But we also said that a gigabyte has never been cheaper. More correctly put is that operators never had

lower total service revenue per gigabyte than what they currently have. Figure 17 shows the revenue

erosion from 1H 2019 to 1H 2020.

Figure 17. Erosion in total mobile service revenue per consumed GB – 1H 2019 to 1H 2020

-58%

-56%

-41%

-40% -3

7%

-31%

-30%

-28%

-28%

-27%

-27%

-26%

-25%

-25%

-25%

-25% -2

2%

-21% -1

9% -1

6%

-15% -13%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%HR SG IT ES LT TR IE UK FR TW AT CN DK 9) PT KR SE FI NL 2) AU NO HK IN

De

ve

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GB

1

H 2

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9 t

o 1

H 2

02

0 [

loca

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rre

ncy]

2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded9) 2p/3p/4p revenue not included

Indian operators

have the lowest

total revenue per

GB – Canada the

highest


The prerequisite to be in Figure 17 is of course that the statistics have been reported both for 1H 2019 and

for 1H 2020. Of these markets, Croatia has the fastest revenue erosion, 58%. Singapore is just behind

with 56% as TPG’s entry led to a shift in data consumption. Italy – where the disruptive entry of Iliad still

affects usage – follows with 41%. Spain had 40% and Lithuania 37%.

Surprise: India, which historically often had the fastest revenue erosion in our reports, if now having the

slowest, just 13%. Hong Kong had 15% and Norway 16%.


No correlation between data usage and ARPU

Figure 18 is a variant of the revenue per GB chart – it plots the usage against the average revenue per SIM,

i.e. the ARPU.

Figure 18. Mobile data usage vs. total mobile service revenue per SIM

Of our markets with 2019 or 1H 2020 data, there are three where operators derive ARPUs much higher than

elsewhere: Switzerland, USA and Canada. Although the Canadian ARPU is lower than that of USA and

Switzerland, Canadian mobile users can be said to have made the worse deal as the data usage is so much

lower than Switzerland and USA.

Operators in the upper left corner – Finland, Taiwan, Latvia, Lithuania and India – are being the most

generous with mobile data considering their ARPU. These countries form a nice line suggesting that

operators could expect to get rewarded with higher ARPU as usage grows.

But that’s regretfully not to overall trend: The adherence to the grey regression line is super-weak and it’s

anyhow not pointing in the north-easterly direction one would like to see – with more usage leading to

higher ARPU.

NO

IE

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ES

KR

TR FR

2) AU

LT

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UK

DK

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FI

DE

US

EE

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HK

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LU5) NZ

R² = 0,0192

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Total mobile service revenue per SIM (incl. M2M) per month [EUR]

Highest ARPU yet lowest usage

Lowest ARPUyet highest usage


3) Revenue per GB for 2019 as not yet reported5) Each year: 12 months ending June

15 EUR ARPU line

1H 2020

FY 2019


Is the Christmas tree a victim of 2020?

Now to our Christmas tree graph. It’s the graph were we ideally like to see the branches stretch to the right

as that means that the ARPU grew in the past year. That would mean that the operators of a country have

been able to monetise the growth in data usage.

Figure 19. Development in mobile data usage vs. the development in ARPU – 1H 2019 to 1H 2020

In reality the branches stretch right in only 6 of 21 markets9. These eight are – from the top – Finland,

Lithuania, India, France, Turkey and Norway (just). In 15 markets (71%), the branches stretch left

meaning that even though data usage grew, ARPU fell. The ARPU erosion in Singapore is unparalleled;

above 20%. Hong Kong was above 10%. The Netherlands and Sweden only

look marginally better.

It must be because of Corona? Not really. Last year’s Christmas tree didn’t

look any better – see the miniature to the right. Why aren’t we more

successful as an industry?

9 The 21 markets for which regulators to date have reported the necessary underlying stats

NO

IE

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KR

TRFR

2) AU

LT

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UK

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GB

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incl.

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Total mobile service revenue per SIM per month dev. 1H19-1H20 [local currency]

Decreasing ARPU Increasing ARPU

1H 2020

1H 2019

1) Excluding M2M SIMs not in Sweden2) Q2 & Q4 annualised, upload excluded

https://tefficient.com/usage-up-but-monetisation-falters/


It’s important to remember that Figure 19 depicts the development of a market as a whole. Individual

operators might not follow the country trend. In our operator report for the same time period – “40% more

gigabytes in spite of the pandemic” – the situation looks better as 42% of the operators could grow ARPU

based on an increase in data usage. It suggests that smaller operators – with less weight in the country

totals – do better in Christmas tree graphs than larger operators.

5G could be the key to change the balance – by convincing the branches to grow to the right.

As shown, 5G has had a major impact on the data usage in Korea. But Korea doesn’t have a positive ARPU

development in Figure 19 – its -0.4%. One explanation is that Korea’s ARPU was heavily affected by a

government decision taken in 2017 to increase the SIM-only discount from 20% to 25%. This started to

have an effect on the ARPU by the end of 2017 and as the typical contract binding period on handset plans

is two years in Korea, the effect should have lasted until the end of 2019. The upside of the change has

been an equally significant improvement in churn, so it’s not all bad.

The Korean operators do not break out their 5G ARPU in their reporting, but by looking at the year-over-year

development of the overall mobile service revenue, we could try to see if 5G had a positive impact since the

launch in Q2 2019.

Figure 20. Y-o-Y development in overall mobile service revenue – Korea

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

Mo

bil

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erv

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-o-y

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wth

SK Telecom KT (new def) KT (old def) LG U+

Increase in SIM-onlydiscount from 20% to 25%

Launch of 5G

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-1h-2020/

https://tefficient.com/mobile-data-operators-1h-2020/


From Figure 20 it’s clear that the increase in SIM-only discount (see the first arrow) had a quite negative

impact on the mobile service revenue when customers rather took the 25% SIM-only discount than

committing to binding contracts with subsidised handsets. At around the time of the second arrow (=5G

launch), the overall mobile service revenue started to grow again – LG U+ first, then KT and finally SK

Telecom.

There’s reason to be positive, but we should also realise that the negative effect of the

SIM-only discount increase effectively should have ended by the end of 2019. A cautious

conclusion is that 5G helped the Korean operators to get back on track. They have now

re-established the revenue growth they had prior to the increase in SIM-only

discount.

5G helped the

Korean

operators to re-

establish

growth


Conclusion

Mobile data usage is growing in all of the 44 countries covered by this analysis. The growth rates

are very different and so are the usage levels. We think COVID-19 measures have increased the

spread. Finland tops the charts – with 22.4 GB per average SIM per month in 1H 2020. If

excluding M2M, the usage grows to 26.4 GB per month. But in spite of 78% of non-M2M SIMs

being unlimited and three 5G networks covering at least 25% of the population, the data usage

growth isn’t particularly fast in Finland – 30%. Usage in Croatia grew 128%. To determine usage

is no longer as simple as classifying a market as mature or maturing. The lowest usage is found in

Greece, Portugal, Germany and Belgium, hardly any maturing markets.

Our analysis shows strong correlation between the data-only share of a country’s SIM base and

the average data usage. Latvia, Bahrain and Finland are the data-only powerhouses of the

world. In all but one reported market (Norway), data-only’s share of total traffic grew – a

trend that started in 2019, before Corona. We attribute this to FWA.

While 4G doesn’t really drive data usage as such any longer, 5G is different. At least in South

Korea – still the only country with proper reporting on 5G. And despite media reports on how poor

Korea’s 5G is (although it’s the densest 5G network on the planet), the progress is steady.

Eighteen months after launch, 10 million Koreans (14% of SIM base) have moved to a 5G

subscription. The data consumption per 5G subscription is about 2.5 times that of the average

subscription – 26.6 GB per month. 5G seems to have helped Korean operators to re-establish

mobile service revenue growth overall.

Regardless of technology, data usage could be elevated by an increased data-only penetration

through fixed-line substitution. But a prerequisite for this – and for high data usage in general – is

that the total revenue per gigabyte is low.

This is the case in India, Latvia, Lithuania, Taiwan, Finland, China and Poland. Canada,

Luxembourg, Belgium, New Zealand, Germany and Greece represent the other end.

Low usage doesn’t necessarily mean low ARPU, though. Market ARPU is uncorrelated with usage.

Switzerland, USA and Canada have much higher ARPU than other countries in our analysis.

What is worrying is that only 6 of 21 markets could grow ARPU on the back of data usage

growth. It’s easy to blame Corona for it, but the percentage is actually quite similar to what we

have had in our previous country analyses. As an industry, we can do better.

International telco competitiveness specialist providing operators and suppliers with analysis, benchmarks and go-to-

market preparation. Expertise in data monetisation, customer loyalty, Nonstop Retention®, FMC, mobile video, fiber, Wi-

Fi, 5G.

www.tefficient.com

http://www.tefficient.com/

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