10 Public Opinion. What is Public Opinion? Citizens’ attitudes about political issues, leaders,...
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Transcript of 10 Public Opinion. What is Public Opinion? Citizens’ attitudes about political issues, leaders,...
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10Public Opinion
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What is Public Opinion?
• Citizens’ attitudes about political issues, leaders, institutions, and events
• May be understood on two levels– Individual – What one person thinks about issues, leaders, institutions, and events
– Aggregate – The accumulation of these individual expressions as expressed in polls, votes, town meetings, protests, etc.
• Preferences, beliefs, and choices matter
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Preferences, Beliefs, and Choices
• Preferences are shaped by economic self-interest and social or moral values; some preferences may be held more firmly than others.
• Beliefs reflect how people understand the world and the consequences of actions.
• The choices presented to us do not always yield a clear measure of our preferences or beliefs.
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Variety of Opinion
• Americans do hold common opinions on some issues, like the legitimacy of the Constitution, but on most things the public does not hold a single view
• What we’re interested in knowing:– Evaluations of individuals and institutions
– Assessments of public policies– Assessments of current circumstances– Political orientations
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Clicker Question
We can expect that public opinion will vary significantly over time on each of the following EXCEPT
A. the president.B. environmental regulation.C. equality of opportunity.D. trust in government.
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Origins and Nature of Opinion
• Individual opinions are a products of one’s personality, social characteristics, and interests.
• Opinions are also shaped by institutional, political, and governmental forces that make it more likely we’ll hold some belief and less likely we’ll hold others.
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Self-Interest, Values and Identities• Economic interests – Government policies directly affect Americans’ financial well-being in a variety of ways
• Values – Our philosophies about morality and justice impact our opinions and may even contradict our economic interests
• Identities – Our race, religion, geographic origin, language, and partisan identification impact our opinions
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Social Origins of Preferences• Preferences are developed through social lives – upbringing, schooling, religion, and experiences with coworkers and friends
• This is called political socialization – The induction of individuals into the political culture; the process of learning the underlying beliefs and values on which the political system is based
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Agents of Socialization
• The social institutions, including families and schools, that help shape individuals’ basic political beliefs and values
• Important agents of socialization:– Family– Education– Social Groups– Political Conditions
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Agents of Socialization:Family• Most people acquire their initial orientation to politics from their family
• Parents don’t necessarily teach their kids about politics but kids absorb the political conversations around them and often the political orientation that comes with it
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Is your partisan affiliation the same as your parents’?
A.YesB. No
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Agents of Socialization:Education• Some values (liberty, equality, and democracy for instance) are impressed on students continuously throughout their education
• But higher levels of educational attainment are associated with changes in political beliefs
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Education and Public Opinion
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Do you think higher education has a liberalizing effect?
A.YesB.Nohttp://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/154822/college-know-it-all-hippies
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Agents of Socialization:Social Groups• We all belong to groups– Some are voluntary, like political parties, unions, and occupational groups
– Some are involuntary, like race and gender
• Groups are another source of divergent preferences
• Some of these preferences are based on self-interest but most are not
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Disagreement Among Blacks and Whites
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Changing Partisan Division in the Latino Community
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Religious Groups and Same-Sex Marriage
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The Gender Gap
• A distinctive pattern of voting behavior reflecting the differences in views between women and men
• The gender gap has been an enduring feature of American elections for some time now, with women consistently voting more Democratic and men voting more Republican
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Gender Gap on War and Peace
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Agents of Socialization: Political Conditions• The conditions under which individuals and groups come of political age also shape political orientation
• Similarly, the views of individuals and groups change as the political conditions change
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Political Ideology
• The set of underlying orientations, ideas, and beliefs through which people understand and interpret politics
• Most people describe their ideology as liberal or conservative
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Conservatives and LiberalsConservatives
• Support the social and economic status quo
• Suspicious of efforts to introduce new political formulas and economic arrangements
• Believe that a large and powerful government poses a threat to citizens’ freedoms
Liberals• Support political and social reform
• Extensive government intervention in the economy
• Expansion of federal social services
• More vigorous efforts on behalf of the poor, minorities, and women
• Greater concern for consumers and the environment
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Public Opinion and Political Knowledge• Few Americans devote sufficient time, energy, or attention to politics to really understand all the issues
• The costs of gathering information may be high and the benefits may be low
• We can think of examples, however, where low levels of political information can be harmful to groups of people
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Shaping Opinion: Government and Politicians• All governments attempt to influence citizens’ beliefs but their efforts are counteracted by interest groups, media, and politicians opposed to those in power
• Presidents have been actively “going public” for decades now to influence how the public perceives their policy initiatives
• They are not always successful, however
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Shaping Opinion: Private Groups• Following the rationality principle, groups and individuals seek to influence latent, unorganized individuals to support their cause
• Groups and individuals with more money, institutional support, and skill will have more success
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Shaping Opinion: Media
• The mass media are the conduits through which most politically relevant information flows to the public
• Traditional media sources – newspapers, radio, and television – are supplemented today by the Internet and social media
• We learn from the media actively – seeking out news – and passively – absorbing news through entertainment
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Media Effects: Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing• Agenda-Setting: The power to bring attention to particular issues and problems
• Priming – The process of preparing the public to take a particular view of an event or a political actor
• Framing – The power of the media to influence how events and issues are interpreted
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Clicker Question
A decision to lead a broadcast with a story about a high-profile murder case rather than the president’s trip to the Middle East is an example of a media effect called
A. agenda setting.B. priming.C. framing.
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Measuring Public Opinion:Selection Bias• A poll is a scientific instrument for measuring public opinion
• Because we usually cannot ask everyone whose opinion we want, we must start by finding a representative sample of the larger population
• Finding a representative sample is not easy and we have to avoid selection bias
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Measuring Public Opinion:Sample Size• The reliability of a poll is a function of sample size
• The larger the sample size, the less the chance that the result will be the result of sampling error
• However, larger samples are more expensive to construct
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Two Pollsters and Their Records
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Measuring Public Opinion:Survey Design• Even with a large, representative sample, a poll may provide a misleading result or measurement error
• Measurement error is the failure to identify the true distribution of opinion within a population because of errors such as ambiguous or poorly worded questions
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The Questions Matter
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Measuring Public Opinion:Illusion of Salience• A salient interest is an attitude or view that is especially important to the individual holding it
• By reporting results in quantitative terms, polls can give the impression that something is important when it actually is not. This is the illusion of salience
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How Does Public Opinion Influence Government
Policy?• Four important ways:– Electoral accountability– Building coalitions: Public bills are more likely to pass if they have public support.
– Input in rule making and legal decisions– Shaping public opinion: Political leaders’ behavior is changed as they seek to shape public opinion.
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