Priorities for Transport in a Growing London

The Future of Transport:Challenges and Opportunities Thursday, 10 November 2016

#FoLMTS

9:00 Welcome

9:10 Val Shawcross, Deputy Mayor for Transport

9:30 Panel presentations

Lucinda Turner, Acting Director of Borough Planning, TfL

Richard de Cani, Planning Leader, Arup

Mark Frost, Head of Traffic & Transport, LB Hounslow

10:10 Moderated discussion

Chair: Lisa Taylor, Chief Executive, Future of London

10:30 Networking & close

Agenda

Val ShawcrossDeputy Mayor for Transport

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The Future of Transport: Our Priorities

Valerie Shawcross CBE

Deputy Mayor for Transport

10 November 2016

Transport sits at the heart of the Mayor’s priorities

• Fairer for all: cheaper fares

• Better air quality

• Healthy Streets

• Housing & regeneration

• Inclusive and accessible

We’ve started as we mean to go on…

• Air quality consultation

• Rail devolution

• Taxi & Private Hire Action Plan

• Night Tube

• River crossings

• Safer Lorry Scheme

Mayor’s Transport Strategy

Creating a transport system that:

• Delivers a good public transport

experience

• Delivers safe and pleasant places

• Supports the economy, new homes

and jobs

Major projects

• River crossings

• Crossrail & Crossrail 2

• Tube & station upgrades

• Northern Line extension

• Bakerloo Line extension

Integrated and accessible transport

• All Londoners and visitors can travel

with ease

• Our proposals include:

• Underground

• Buses and stops

• Training

• New rail lines

• Fares freeze

• The new ‘Hopper’ ticket

• Protecting concessions

Fares

Healthy Streets

• A new framework to shape our

approach to streets

• Naturally prioritises walking,

cycling & public transport

• Vision Zero

• Oxford Street & Parliament

Square

Air quality

• Consultation received over 14,000

responses

• Our proposals included:

• Bringing forward ULEZ to 2019

• Expanding the zone in 2020

• “T” Charge

• Diesel scrappage scheme

• Clean bus programme

Reforming TfL

• New TfL board

• Savings and efficiencies

• Improving customer service &

information

Thank you

val.shawcross@london.gov.uk

Lucinda TurnerActing Director of Borough Planning, TfL

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Clear

leadership from

the Mayor on

key issues

Travel demand is forecast to increase by six million trips a day

21

1. Development of TfL (and public sector) land for commercial/ housing

use

2. Support growth within Opportunity Areas and Housing Zones by

overcoming transport constraints and unlock housing and

employment growth

3. Make the most of existing networks & town centres – e.g. tube

network upgrades, devolution and ‘metroisation’ of suburban rail

networks in south London (‘Station Intensification Areas’)

4. Deliver new capacity through new schemes e.g. Crossrail 2, Bakerloo

Line Extension, Elizabeth Line, DLR or tram extensions (‘Transport

Growth Corridors’)

In Strictest Confidence

28

• Additional funding mechanisms will be required to meet the capital

costs of enhancements and new project delivery

• Innovative funding packages for schemes such as Crossrail and the

Northern Line Extension to Battersea Power Station

• Building a funding proposition for Crossrail 2 that includes a mix of

land and business taxes - target of at least 50% funded from London

sources

• TfL is discussing potential mechanisms for Land Value Capture with

the GLA & government

Richard de CaniPlanning Leader, Arup

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Transport and DevelopmentRichard de Cani, Arup Planning Leader

Transport and development

Transport is key to unlocking development and creating new parts of the City

Integration of land Use and Transport

For the past 25 or so years – integrating development and transport has been a major

flank of planning policy in London

This has been achieved through a combination of:

• Planning policies and decisions relating to new development;

• Targeted investment in infrastructure – aligned with planning policy;

• Demand management policies; and

• Supportive market conditions.

What does this mean in a future London context?

- More people means more travel

- Our travel is more diverse and varied with even greater choice

- This growth cannot be accommodated on the road network

- We need more homes – at least 50,000 per year

- Our opportunities for growing the city outwards are limited – so growth within

means higher densities

- Citizen and customer expectations about quality of life and choice are much

higher

- The traditional approach to funding infrastructure has changed

The “known knowns”

One trend that must continue……

A growing city means more travel but this must be accommodated by public transport, walking and cycling

People and jobs

Car trips

Public transport, walking and cycling

37

A study by the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics published in

2007 found:

8.6% overall mean impact of a railway station on property values within 400m

of a station*

16.4% price differential for commercial properties within 400m of a station*,

but negligible impact on commercial values beyond this range

4.2% price differential for residential properties within 400m of a station*,

and positive impact on residential values up to 1000m from a station

*Compared to properties beyond 400m range

Evidence supporting impact of transport investment on land values

1,00

0m

400

m

+16.4

%~ nil

+4.2% Positive

400m 1,000

m

Transport means value

The changing role of transport?

• Transport is an integral component of the economic and social success of a city or place.

• In London, transport is much more than moving people from A to B – it drives the economic success of the city and contributes to its unique character that in turn drives economic and social change

Transport as an Integrator

The opportunity for London

- Maximise the development potential of transport nodes and stations

- Development of these sites will help deliver the transport and environmental

outcomes that are needed

- In turn, this supports higher densities

- This can transform the quality of transport facilities for the user and generate

value for the authority

- And create development in locations where many people want to live

How can we deliver transport investment, housing, regeneration – all at once?

Does this mean a different perspective on transport ?

Bringing multiple disciplines together to structure the deal: planning, masterplanning, corporate finance, railway design, station design and over-station development

Transport generates value

Citywide level:

sales tax, tolls, fares

Local area TIF/ Enterprise

Zone to capture positive

impact for businessesRail/developer JV for the

station redevelopment

Land sales around the

station

Retail revenue within

station

Access charges for operators;

fares supplements

Defining something that works for London?

A new plan for stations as development zones

…..and deployed across the City

Looking forward not backwards

How to maximise the opportunity

- A combination of accessibility; value, public land and market opportunity are the right

ingredients to have in place

- But planning policy should be more focused and specific on what it is seeking to achieve

in these locations – clarity on use/mix/scale/density/obligations

- Public land should be pooled and consolidated with help available to address constraints

- Transport operators should have the right incentives in place

- Benefits to the public and community articulated from the outset

What this means for the new Mayor’s Transport Strategy and London Plan

- The new Mayor’s Transport Strategy and London Plan could set a new standard for

integration of transport and development

- More specific and internationalist with the ability to secure the right outcomes for London

- Capturing value to reinvest in transport

- Creating a step change in quality

- Delivering at scale with pace

Mark FrostHead of Traffic & Transport, LB Hounslow

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A New MTS

A borough perspective

Mark Frost

Head of Traffic & Transport

Thursday, 10 November 2016

A New MTS – A Borough Perspective

• Requested to consider the challenges that need to be

addressed through a new MTS from a borough

perspective

• Specifically, the role the transport network plays in

delivering on local authority aspirations for:

i) New jobs and homes

ii) Improved public health

Transport & Regeneration

• Transport key to delivering ambitious regional and local

strategies for new homes and jobs in London’s borders.

• LB Hounslow promoting schemes around Heathrow and

Brentford that could deliver up to 10,000 new homes and

30,000 new jobs.

• Without transport investment that total would be closer to

5,000 new jobs and 3,000 new homes.

• Boroughs 'get it' - new kit only likely if it is going to unlock

housing (1st priority) jobs (2nd?)

• Boroughs also get that availability of public sector funding

for scheme increasingly limited – innovative ‘cocktails’ of

financing necessary

• Opportunities to cost-effectively develop new infrastructure

to facilitate growth exist, perhaps particularly in outer

London where there is also good opportunities to achieve

actual modal shift given low base PTAL

• Across the west sub-region for example a number of

ambitious but affordable schemes have been identified that

would act to create space for new development

‘Some of the best projects

are small scale - tackling

bottlenecks in the existing

network’ - Rod Eddington,

2006

Hounslow – Old Oak London

Overground Extension

4tph Hounslow to Old Oak Common

via Brentford including a new station at

Lionel Road

BCR c4.99:1

CAPEx c£20m

Operational date: 2025/6

Funding required for further feasibility:

£1.05m

Southall Crossrail Link

3tph shuttle service between

Brentford Golden Mile to Southall

Crossrail station.

BCR c3:1

Capex c£41m

Operational date: 2021

Funding required for further

feasibility: £1m

LB Hounslow – Strategic Rail Schemes

CAPEX Comparison (2014)

Scheme No of jobs per £m invested No of homes per £m

invested

NLE to Battersea

£868m

c17000 jobs c7500 homes

19.6 8.6

Jubilee Extension

£5.1Bn

c32,000 jobs c16,500 homes

6.4 3.3

Overground extension to Barking

£180m

C10,000 homes

N/A 55.6

Overground at Old Oak Common

£500m (TfL preferred solution)

+ c25,000 jobs

50 N/A

Brentford Golden Mile

c£100m

c18,000 jobs C2,500 homes

180 25

Economic assessment of these mid-priced schemes usually reveals Benefit:Cost

Ratios far in excess of those being recorded for ‘mega’ schemes such as Crossrail

2, or schemes designed to solely facilitate better access to CAZ…

Southern Rail Access to HeathrowCAPEX c£700-£1bn

Unlock potential of up to 16,000

new jobs and 8,000 new homes

Transport & Regeneration - funding

• In most cases these schemes may be financed solely, or largely, from income

from new developments, or borrowing against future income. Income may

include:

– S106 & CIL (including introduction of localised CIL tariffs linked to specific

infrastructure)

– Uplift in existing business rates + new business rate income generated from

development

– Leveraging public assets (e.g. JVs with developers)

– Business contributions, including potential localised Workplace Parking

Levys

• Borrowing can come from traditional sources such as Public Works Loan Board,

but note increasing diversity in this field including newly established UK Municipal

Bonds Association and institutional investors looking for lower risk payback

vehicles

• Challenge is in progressing these schemes from outline design through the

consents process: no one wants to fund an idea.

• Funding required to do this usually exceeds that available from boroughs

• Designing payback vehicles suitable for third party investment is also

challenging: skills gap?

• How many other such promising schemes are there across outer London that fall

at this stage?

Don’t forget about

buses!• Buses are also central to unlocking new

development.

• Even with new heavy rail services the

PTAL of an area can be seen to move

slightly from 1 to 2.

• It is only when you layer on new bus

services on top of this that higher PTALs

are achievable.

• Without higher PTALs achievable new

development densities are much lower.

Transport & Public Health – Creating

‘Healthy Streets’• Any reading of the ‘Healthy Streets’

concept means less cars, and certainly less

polluting ones – no more ‘modal

agnosticism’!

• A reduction in car traffic cannot be

achieved through improved public realm

alone: ‘sticks’ are required in the form of

parking controls or even more

controversially access restrictions/charging

that increase generalised cost of car travel

• Political courage is required…

• Challenge will be to ensure some level of

buy-in from those more sceptical authorities

and effective incentives and support for

those boroughs who do wish to push

forward with this agenda.

• Where possible the use of trials and natural

experiments should be pursued to help

gain community buy-in to more

transformative schemes

Source: Lucy Saunders

Transport & Public Health – Creating

‘Healthy Streets’• To improve evidence base available to

practitioners, NICE is currently updating

their guidance on Physical Activity &

Environment

• Welcome evidence on interventions that

deliver shift to active travel modes, and in

particular any analysis of negative

externalities that occur as a consequence

(e.g. traffic displacement, equalities

considerations etc)

• Public health teams being co-located

within local authorities raised profile of

this agenda.

• Evidence of co-funding of interventions

now increasingly common

• Reduction in funding for TfL may

particularly impact on revenue elements

such as Road Safety Education – how to

fill this gap and achieve Vision Zero?

Conclusions

• A number of mid-sized transport schemes exist that could deliver significant space for new

homes and jobs in London, particularly in outer boroughs

• These schemes are beyond the scope of most authorities to progress, but not of sufficient

size or scale to gain attention of regional or national bodies

• Funding feasibility of promising schemes remains the key constraint – capital may be

covered by development they unlock. An increased allocation to a London Growth Fund?

• Boroughs are increasingly looking at innovative funding solutions – support in the

technical elements of such arrangements would be welcomed.

• Can we stop ignoring Heathrow now?

• Buses are equally important in increasing PTAL and realising higher densities

• Healthy Streets is a positive concept but with some difficult practical political challenges at

the regional and local level.

• Incentives for those authorities who want to push the boundaries may help practical

realisation of the concept.

• New guidance to help decision makers in this field is required, being progressed by NICE

and others.

• Pooling resources with public health to tackle some of these issues is now essential

Thank you.

Mark Frost

Head of Traffic & Transport

Mark.Frost@hounslow.gov.uk

Moderated discussionChair: Lisa Taylor, Chief Executive,

Future of London

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Next steps

23 Nov: MTS Workshop, Major Projects

1 Dec: Workspace matching event

6 Dec: MTS Workshop, Community Projects

6 Dec: Fizz ‘n’ Chips Christmas Party

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Thank you

futureoflondon.org.uk

@futureofldn

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