10 cip rome cip

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CIP progress report Athanasios Petsakos Guy Hareau International Potato Center (CIP) 25-28 May 2015 Rome, Italy Global Futures & Strategic Foresight extended team meeting

Transcript of 10 cip rome cip

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CIP progress report

Athanasios PetsakosGuy Hareau

International Potato Center (CIP)

25-28 May 2015Rome, Italy

Global Futures & Strategic Foresight extended team meeting

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Training

• IMPACT training (January – Moscow)• Gridded crop modeling training (April – ICRISAT)• DSSAT training (May – University of Georgia, Griffin)

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Activities since the last meeting

• Use of IMPACT for the assessment of new technologies:– Comparison with RTB priority setting exercise

• IPR review for (sweet-) potatoes – Analyze past growth rates and estimate future ones– Focus on South Asia (focus changed after the latest discussions…)

• Introducing biotic stresses in IMPACT – Still exploring…

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IMPACT3 FOR PRIORITY ASSESSMENTAlternative model uses

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Priority assessment at CIP

Some background:In 2014, CIP conducted a priority assessment study for RTB on potato (and sweetpotato) technologies:Hareau, G., Kleinwechter, U., Pradel, W., Suarez, V., Okello, J., Vikraman, S. (2014). Strategic Assessment of Research Priorities for Potato. CGIAR Research program on Roots, Tubers and Bananas (RTB). RTB Working Paper 2014-8. Lima, Peru. Available online at: www.rtb.cgiar.org• Strong interest from the RTB independent evaluation team on how the results of ex-ante priority setting work are used to define the RTB research portfolio.• Final publication of RTB priority setting working papers will acknowledge cross-CRP collaboration (PIM, CCAFS).

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IMPACT for priority assessment

Questions asked:• What changes are needed to IMPACT if we want to use it for priority assessment?• What changes are needed to IMPACT and CIP’s surplus model to create a common framework for comparison?• How do IMPACT results compare with those from the surplus model?

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Comparison challenges

• IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus model• Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods

– Solution 1: Use Ricky’s modeling system (DSSAT)**– Solution 2: Rewrite the code– Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anyway…?

• Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT– Solution 1: Rewrite the code – Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT

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Comparison challenges

• IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus model• Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods

– Solution 1: Use Ricky’s modeling system (DSSAT)**– Solution 2: Rewrite the code– Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anyway…?

• Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT– Solution 1: Rewrite the code – Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT

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Comparison challenges

• IMPACT FPUs do not correspond to the FPUs of the surplus model• Yield shifters can be defined only for 5-year periods

– Solution 1: Use Ricky’s modeling system (DSSAT)**– Solution 2: Rewrite the code– Solution 3: Who needs year-specific shifters anyway…?

• Dissemination costs not modeled in IMPACT– Solution 1: Rewrite the code – Solution 2: Export results and perform analysis outside of IMPACT

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IPR VALIDATION AND CALIBRATIONThe example of China

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The basics…

Rationale:• IMPACT base year is 2005 but we are in 2015…• Before projecting to 2050, we must establish a valid initial point !!!Question :Is adjusting yield growth rates sufficient?

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China: Potato yields

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201412.513.013.514.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.5

Reference (FAO)Years

Yields (t/h

a)

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China: Potato yields

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201412.513.013.514.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.5

Reference (FAO)Years

Yields (t/h

a)

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China: Potato yields

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201412.513.013.514.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.5

IMPACT3 DefaultYears

Yields (t/h

a)

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China: Potato yields

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201412.513.013.514.014.515.015.516.016.517.017.5

Reference (FAO) IMPACT3 DefaultYears

Yields (t/h

a)

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China: Total production

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014525660646872768084889296

Reference (FAO) IMPACT3 DefaultYears

Productio

n (Mt)

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China: Potato harvested area

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014400042004400460048005000520054005600

Reference (FAO) IMPACT3 DefaultYears

Harvested

Area (.00

0 ha)

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BIOTIC CROP STRESS IN IMPACTA preliminary skirmish

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Thoughts on pests and diseases modeling

• Discussed in Florida (Feb2014)• CIP’s pest modeling team focuses on the tomato leaf miner Tuta absoluta• Discussions to understand what is being modeled and what outputs are available:

– We need to understand what “technologies” are available– Who is the end user of the technologies– How much does it cost– How all this translates in yield shifts

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Next steps and discussion

• Must work with the IMPACT team to “standardize” a calibration procedure– Exogenous land growth rates important

• Scheduled:– Complete the activities described

• Not in workplan but interesting…: – Conduct regional impact assessments to obtain better adoption thresholds for some countries (also discussed in ReMIP/AgMIP)

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Literature on potato IPRs1. Scott, G. J., Rosegrant, M. W., & Ringler, C. (2000). Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020. Food Policy, 25(5), 561–597.2. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2011). Growth rates for potato in India and their implications for industry. Potato Journal, 38(2), 100–112.3. Scott, G. J. (2011). Growth Rates for Potatoes in Latin America in Comparative Perspective: 1961-07. American Journal of Potato Research, 88, 143–152.4. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2012a). Limits to Growth or Growth to the Limits? Trends and Projections for Potatoes in China and Their Implications for Industry. Potato Research, 55, 135–156.5. Scott, G. J. & Suarez, V. (2012b). The Rise of Asia as the Center of Global Potato Production and Some Implications for Industry. Potato Journal, 39(1), 1–22.6. Scott, G. J., Labarta, R., & Suarez, V. (2013). Booms, Busts, and Emerging Markets for Potatoes in East and Central Africa1961-2010. Potato Research, 56, 205–236.7. Article from Ulrich and G. Scott on LAC… Under revision

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THANK YOU