10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 · 80 90 less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over...

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1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases, selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)

CAN

KOR

FRADEU

BEL

USA

Days since 1 case per million

ESP

# of people (log scale)

IND

SWE

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Worldometers)

SWE

KOR

Days since 1 death per million

DEU

BEL

FRA

ESP# of people (log scale)

IND

CAN

USA

mailto:[email protected]?subject=COVID-19%20Daily%20Monitor



3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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World

NBF Economics and Strategy

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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)

Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

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New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)




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4. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million


SWEQC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON

# of people (log scale)

USA

ESP

500

50

5

1

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

5. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million


SWEQC


CAN

AB

BEL

BC

ON

# of people (log scale)USA

ESP




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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

6. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

MEX


CAN

BRABEL

PER# of people (log scale)

CHL

ESP

USA

1,000

100

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

7. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html)

MEX


CAN

BRA

BEL

PER# of people (log scale)

USA

ESPCHL




Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population

March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 Days

South Africa 0.74 2.41 14.70 174.44 201.9 h

United States 18.47 89.43 71.13 176.26 201.8 h

Israel 19.9 40.8 4.2 146.8 196.8 h

Brazil 0.9 12.8 64.9 178.0 185.0 h

Mexico 0.3 4.7 18.0 46.9 52.2 h

Spain 66.2 83.8 18.0 17.3 34.6 h

India 0.0 0.8 3.6 20.6 29.4 h

Sweden 14.1 55.0 52.5 52.6 26.7 i

Portugal 23.5 57.5 23.6 31.4 22.6 i

Belgium 35.6 102.8 27.4 11.8 19.8 h

Australia 5.7 2.9 0.6 8.4 13.3 h

Austria 36.4 19.5 4.6 10.4 13.1 h

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 9.4 12.3 h

Switzerland 61.8 50.0 4.8 10.6 11.7 h

Turkey 5.2 42.2 16.7 12.8 10.9 i

France 25.7 58.0 9.9 7.4 10.4 h

United Kingdom 11.9 71.7 49.2 8.5 9.7 h

Netherlands 23.7 52.0 13.4 5.2 8.8 h

Denmark 15.9 36.2 14.0 4.6 6.6 h

Germany 27.6 36.3 7.9 4.9 5.9 h

Japan 0.4 3.2 0.7 2.8 5.2 h

Italy 55.8 54.9 14.7 3.3 3.8 h

Finland 8.2 21.5 10.9 1.3 2.0 h

Norway 27.5 19.0 4.2 2.0 1.8 i

South Korea 4.2 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 i

China 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 h

7 days

compared to

28 days trend

8. World, Daily new cases per million population

0

50

100

150

200

250

ZAF USA ISR BRA MEX ESP IND SWE PRT BEL AUS AUT CAN CHE TUR FRA GBR NLD DEN DEU JAP ITA FIN NORKORCHN

Worst week before June

Current

9. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Cases per

million people




Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million

population


Brazil 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.9 5.0 h

Mexico 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 4.8 h

South Africa 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 3.4 h

United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 2.6 h

Sweden 0.6 7.9 5.8 1.6 1.2 i

Israel 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.5 1.0 h

United Kingdom 1.2 12.0 5.6 1.2 0.9 i

India 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 h

Portugal 0.5 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.4 i

Belgium 2.0 19.8 5.2 0.3 0.2 i

Turkey 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 i

Italy 6.6 8.6 2.9 0.2 0.2 i

Canada 0.1 2.8 3.5 0.3 0.2 i

Australia 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 h

Switzerland 1.6 5.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 h

France 1.7 10.6 2.2 0.2 0.1 i

Denmark 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 i

Spain 5.8 11.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 i

Germany 0.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 i

Norway 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 i

Netherlands 2.0 7.3 2.2 0.1 0.0 i

South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 h

Japan 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 h

China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 h

Finland 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 i

Austria 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 i

7 days vs 28

days trend

10. World, Daily new deaths per million population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

BRA MEX ZAF USA SWE ISR GBR IND PRT BEL TUR ITA CAN AUS CHE FRA DEN ESP DEU NOR NLD KOR JAP CHN FIN AUT


Current

11. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries


Deaths per

million people






Alberta 5.0 35.2 12.1 17.2 27.9 h

Quebec 15.7 91.3 88.8 12.6 18.1 h

Saskatchewan 5.0 5.8 7.0 9.5 18.0 h

Ontario 4.3 35.0 26.3 9.4 8.67 i

British Columbia 6.3 7.2 2.9 3.7 6.2 h

Manitoba 2.4 4.2 0.4 1.5 4.6 h

Newfoundland 9.4 6.8 0.2 0.2 0.5 h

New Brunswick 2.9 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 h

Nova Scotia 4.9 27.3 3.6 0.2 0.0 i

Prince Edward Island 4.3 1.3 0.0 2.0 0.0 i

Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 9.4 12.3 h

Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE

7 days vs

28 days

trend

12. Canada, Daily new cases per million population

0

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AB QC SK ON BC MB NF NB NS PE


Current

13. Canada: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week


Cases per

million people




14. United States, Daily new cases per million population, selected cities



Miami-Dade 25.2 122.0 70.5 872.9 1032.8 h

Houston (Harris County) 4.7 40.1 40.5 260.6 286.5 h

Los Angeles 9.7 67.1 102.1 267.8 273.1 h

Minneapolis (Hennepin County) 5.2 40.4 169.6 123.0 159.4 h

San Francisco 14.5 41.7 39.8 91.8 114.1 h

Chicago (Cook County) 28.1 207.2 259.4 84.2 99.3 h

Philadelphia 26.8 276.8 166.2 82.5 97.2 h

Seattle (King County) 33.3 57.4 27.0 67.6 81.0 h

New York City 166.8 497.2 138.6 39.1 42.2 h

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 176.3 201.8 h


7 days

compared to 28

days trend

0

200

400

600

800

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1200

Miami Houston LA Minneapolis SF Chicago Philadelphia Seattle NYC


Current

15. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected cities


Cases per

million people




16. United States, Daily new cases per million population


March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysFlorida (FL) 10.1 41.8 33.5 458.7 492.8 h

Arizona (AZ) 5.7 29.2 54.4 439.9 359.8 i

Georgia (GA) 11.9 70.0 63.1 287.6 340.7 h

Texas (TX) 4.2 28.6 40.0 293.7 331.0 h

Tennessee (TN) 11.3 40.7 55.8 256.0 323.1 h

California (CA) 6.7 35.4 50.5 207.6 238.9 h

North Carolina (NC) 4.7 29.3 55.4 169.1 182.8 h

Missouri (MO) 6.5 32.7 26.1 107.2 167.3 h

Wisconsin (WI) 7.8 31.2 64.0 120.7 153.9 h

Virginia (VA) 5.3 60.0 108.7 100.6 127.2 h

Maryland (MD) 8.9 110.7 165.6 89.0 122.2 h

Indiana (IN) 10.3 77.5 79.9 84.6 117.2 h

Ohio (OH) 6.1 45.1 48.3 99.4 117.1 h

Washington (WA) 23.0 38.9 31.2 92.1 106.9 h

Illinois (IL) 15.2 123.3 171.2 80.8 101.6 h

Pennsylviana (PA) 12.5 112.0 70.9 58.3 66.5 h

Michigan (MI) 24.6 107.6 43.5 55.2 65.7 h

Massachusetts (MA) 30.9 268.7 162.6 35.3 42.8 h

New York (NY) 125.7 391.6 110.1 35.4 36.1 h

New Jersey (NJ) 67.9 375.1 151.8 30.9 22.3 i

United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 176.3 201.8 h


7 days

compared to 28

days trend

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600

FL AZ GA TX TN CA NC MO WI VA MD IN OH WA IL PA MI MA NY NJ


Current

17. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states


Cases per

million people




18. United States, Daily new deaths per million population

Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million population

March April May Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysArizona (AZ) 0.1 1.4 2.6 7.7 11.2 h

Florida (FL) 0.1 1.8 1.8 3.6 5.6 h

Texas (TX) 0.1 0.9 1.0 2.8 4.8 h

Georgia (GA) 0.3 3.2 2.8 2.1 3.4 h

Tennessee (TN) 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.9 2.7 h

California (CA) 0.1 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.6 h

Massachusetts (MA) 0.4 16.8 15.4 2.7 2.2 i

North Carolina (NC) 0.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.0 h

Ohio (OH) 0.2 2.6 3.3 1.5 1.9 h

Indiana (IN) 0.2 5.3 4.9 1.6 1.8 h

Missouri (MO) 0.1 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.6 h

Maryland (MD) 0.1 6.2 7.4 1.7 1.5 i

Illinois (IL) 0.3 5.9 7.7 2.1 1.2 i

Pennsylviana (PA) 0.2 6.3 7.8 1.5 1.2 i

Wisconsin (WI) 0.1 1.7 1.5 0.7 1.2 h

New York (NY) 5.4 36.5 9.8 1.3 1.1 i

New Jersey (NJ) 1.0 26.1 16.2 3.4 1.0 i

Washington (WA) 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 h

Virginia (VA) 0.1 2.2 3.2 1.6 0.8 i

Michigan (MI) 0.9 12.3 5.6 0.9 0.7 i

United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 2.6 h


7 days vs 28

days trend

0

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30

40

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60

AZ FL TX GA TN CA MA NC OH IN MO MD IL PA WI NY NJ WA VA MI


Current

19. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states


Deaths per

million people




-10

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20. New York City: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: July 12 to 18)

Weekly deaths per 100 000 population

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented

During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)

COVID-19

1918 pandemic

# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020

Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in

1918, line represent start of measures in 2020

32.3

46.9

16.1

4.7

23.1

64.0

8.5

4.4

0

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90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths

21. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths

NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)

18.6

39.7

25.8

16.0

0.032.7

17.2

80.0

0

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20

30

40

50

60

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80

90

less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over

Proportion ofpopulation

Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths

Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of July 23)

% %

AgeAge




22. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019, 7 day moving average (last obs.: July 13 to 19)

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)

Percentage points

-100

-90

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0

Montreal Paris Madrid Rome Stockholm Berlin Miami New York Tokyo

Worst week Now

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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020

23. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: July 22)

y/y change

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)

CAN

USA

DEU

Global

GBR




-80

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23. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

% change from baseline*

SWE

USACAN

GBR

FRA

ESP

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

DEU

-80

-70

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0

10


25. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average

*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)

% change from baseline*

CAAB QC

BC

ON




-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

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4.5

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5.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

26. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index

Stdev

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Lehman bankruptcy

and AIG bailout

U.S. government

credit downgrade

and Eurozone

crisis

Fear of Chinese

recession and

petrol supply

shock

COVID-19

outbreak and

OPEC/Russia oil

price war

NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada

Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the

S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.

Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,

minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian

government bond yield.

S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.

USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.

BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.

Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)

Variables Estimation




.

.

mailto:[email protected]

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 · 80 90 less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over...

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Transcript of 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 · 80 90 less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over...