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What Perimeter for a European Space Weather Programme?

F. LefeuvreF. Lefeuvre1st European SW week – 29 Nov 20041st European SW week – 29 Nov 2004

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● What problems?

● What programme ?

● What Users ?

● What actions ?

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WHAT PROBLEMS ?

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Effects on the Sun/Earth system of Effects on the Sun/Earth system of variations in the solar activity are variations in the solar activity are recognizedrecognized

The existence of a US national SW The existence of a US national SW programme is understoodprogramme is understood

The point is to know if Europe is concerned The point is to know if Europe is concerned and, if the answer is yes, who is concerned?and, if the answer is yes, who is concerned?

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SEC report on intense SW storms, Oct. 19-Nov. 07 2003

For the Science mission operation team of the NASA Goddard For the Science mission operation team of the NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterSpace Flight Center

- 59 % of the Earth and Space Science missions experiences - 59 % of the Earth and Space Science missions experiences effects effects - 24 % of the missions either turned off their instruments or took - 24 % of the missions either turned off their instruments or took other protective actionsother protective actions

Air traffic operators reported minor to severe impacts on HF Air traffic operators reported minor to severe impacts on HF communications for airlines on polar routes, flight centers communications for airlines on polar routes, flight centers restricted flight pathsrestricted flight paths

GPS operations were affected by the change in TEC of the GPS operations were affected by the change in TEC of the ionosphere - even for dual frequency receivers ionosphere - even for dual frequency receivers

Power companies did experience some problems, etc.Power companies did experience some problems, etc.

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QUESTIONS

● Were the cautions taken for satellites and airlines were necessary or not?● If yes, could the same problems affect European activities?

Part of the answers will be given in the reports Part of the answers will be given in the reports of the ESA SW pilot projects – this weekof the ESA SW pilot projects – this week

See the Nov 2004 CLS animationSee the Nov 2004 CLS animation

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WHAT PROGRAMME ?

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EUROPEAN CONTEXTFunding directed to ScienceFunding directed to Science

The ESA Space Science Department ( ILWS)The ESA Space Science Department ( ILWS)

EU EU

● ● support mainly for support mainly for management and networkingmanagement and networking- COST 724 (Developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and - COST 724 (Developing the scientific basis for monitoring, modelling and predicting Space Weather)predicting Space Weather)- ESF E-STAR project (European Solar Terrestrial and Atmospheric Research)- ESF E-STAR project (European Solar Terrestrial and Atmospheric Research)

● ● support for projectssupport for projects- framework programmes (FP6 ??; FP7 ?)- framework programmes (FP6 ??; FP7 ?)- ERC ?- ERC ?

National AgenciesNational Agencies

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Funding directed to operational activities

The ESA Technical Department The ESA Technical Department - General Study Programme – GSP - (pilot projects, - General Study Programme – GSP - (pilot projects, SWENET, etc…)SWENET, etc…)- General Support Technology Programmes – GSTP - General Support Technology Programmes – GSTP

––(R&D)(R&D)

EU EU - framework programmes- framework programmes (GMES and GALILEO (GMES and GALILEO

included)included)

National AgenciesNational Agencies

Private firmsPrivate firms

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ELEMENTS OF A ESW PROGRAMME

Customers

Forecast and specifying services

Operationalactivities-Observations-Modeling-Outreach

-Observations-Modeling-Outreach

Scientificresearch

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Links between science and operational activities

Scientific activities provideScientific activities provide- knowledge of the Sun/Earth systemknowledge of the Sun/Earth system- ObservationsObservations- Scientific modelsScientific models

Operational activities provideOperational activities provide- Identification of critical points to be studied in the Sun/Earth Identification of critical points to be studied in the Sun/Earth

systemsystem- Statistical observationsStatistical observations- Constraints on the scientific modelsConstraints on the scientific models

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WHAT USERS ?

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Satellite designersSatellite operatorsSatellite operatorsLaunchersLaunchersCommunicationCommunicationMan in spaceMan in spaceSecuritySecurityground systemsground systemsInsuranceInsuranceTourismTourismResearchResearch

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Present and potential European users

Private firmsPrivate firms

National agencies (space, communication, National agencies (space, communication, meteorology, defence, etc.)meteorology, defence, etc.)

European entities (ESA, EUMETSAT, GMES, European entities (ESA, EUMETSAT, GMES, GALILEO, European defence?, etc.)GALILEO, European defence?, etc.)European entities must receive demands and/or European entities must receive demands and/or agreements from their member statesagreements from their member states

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Common problem

Each potential user would like to have a good Each potential user would like to have a good estimation of the potential risks for its own estimation of the potential risks for its own activities. Pilot projects will provide some activities. Pilot projects will provide some answers, but how to make a correct estimation answers, but how to make a correct estimation without having :without having :

access to the relevant data bases (files on service access to the relevant data bases (files on service limitations, data anomalies, geomagnetic activities, etc.) ?limitations, data anomalies, geomagnetic activities, etc.) ?

relevant funding ?relevant funding ?

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WHAT ACTIONS ?

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Space Weather Working Team (SWWT)

A forum working on

Strategic vision about the advancement of a European SW Strategic vision about the advancement of a European SW programmeprogramme

actions directed to European entities (SWWT Board)actions directed to European entities (SWWT Board) Actions directed to National entities (SWWT members) Coordination of actions related to operational services

Topical groups - fundamental research (H. Lundstedt)

- ground effects (R. Pirjola) - atmospheric effects (A. Blusson) - ionospheric effects (L. Cander) - Spacecraft and Aircraft environments (A. Hilgers) - Education, outreach and emerging markets (N.

Crosby)

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In the past elaboration and constitution ofIn the past elaboration and constitution of a COST action (COST 724)a COST action (COST 724)

FP6 projects supported by SWWTFP6 projects supported by SWWT- STREP proposals sent to GMES were rejected (ESA - STREP proposals sent to GMES were rejected (ESA responsibility and/or secondary risks)responsibility and/or secondary risks)- proposal submitted to NEST/INSIGHT - proposal submitted to NEST/INSIGHT

Other FP6 projects Other FP6 projects - projects related to propagation through the ionosphere have - projects related to propagation through the ionosphere have been either submitted or acceptedbeen either submitted or accepted

FP7 ? FP7 ? (action from national members? From ESF?)(action from national members? From ESF?)

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EUMETSAT

No involvment unless actions are demanded No involvment unless actions are demanded by national membersby national members

However, one EUMETSAT officer will However, one EUMETSAT officer will follow activities on radio occultation follow activities on radio occultation measurementsmeasurements

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Security

A SW presentation will be made at 1st AAF international A SW presentation will be made at 1st AAF international conference – Military space : Questions in Europe, April conference – Military space : Questions in Europe, April 25 – 27, 2005, Paris.25 – 27, 2005, Paris.

A scientific committee including :A scientific committee including :- SWWT members- SWWT members- members of European National defence organizations- members of European National defence organizations

is progressively set up to organize a dedicated meeting or a is progressively set up to organize a dedicated meeting or a dedicated session in an existing meeting dedicated session in an existing meeting

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Agenda of the Nov 30 SWWT meeting

1. Welcome , F. Lefeuvre1. Welcome , F. Lefeuvre 2. Adoption of the Agenda2. Adoption of the Agenda 3. Action Review from Previous Meeting (cf attachment)3. Action Review from Previous Meeting (cf attachment) 4. Activities of Topical Groups - Topical group leaders4. Activities of Topical Groups - Topical group leaders 5. Pilot Project Mid-Term Review - A. Hilgers/A. Glover5. Pilot Project Mid-Term Review - A. Hilgers/A. Glover 6. IPY, eGY, IHY ... (topics introduced by M. Candidi in the GEN1 session) M. 6. IPY, eGY, IHY ... (topics introduced by M. Candidi in the GEN1 session) M.

CandidiCandidi 7. Status of COST 724 Action , J. Lilensten7. Status of COST 724 Action , J. Lilensten 8. Joint SWWT COST724-WG4 meeting8. Joint SWWT COST724-WG4 meeting Coordination of ESA Space Weather Applications Activities with Coordination of ESA Space Weather Applications Activities with COST Action 724 F. Jansen/J. Lilensten/A. HilgersCOST Action 724 F. Jansen/J. Lilensten/A. Hilgers 9. Roadmap/Perspectives (F. Lefeuvre/J. Lilensten/A. Hilgers)9. Roadmap/Perspectives (F. Lefeuvre/J. Lilensten/A. Hilgers) 10. Next meeting10. Next meeting 11. AOB.11. AOB.