1 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 “Western...

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Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005

“Western Snowpack and Water Supply Perspectives”

Phil PasterisSupervisory Meteorologist

Natural Resources Conservation Service

United States Department of Agriculture

National Water and Climate Centerhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov

[email protected]

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Snow Survey / Water Supply Forecast Program

• J. E. Church• 1909 Mt. Rose, Nevada• 1935, “Principles of Snow

Surveying as Applied to Forecasting Stream Flow,” Journal of Agricultural Research

• NRCS Activities• 1935 - SCS officially began

snow survey and water supply forecasting in the western U.S. and Alaska

• PL 74-46 Soil Conservation Act

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Snow Survey Program Activities

• Lead the Cooperative Snow Survey Program in 12 western states

• Operate the SNOTEL network – 704 sites

• Coordinate the cooperative manual snow survey program – 922 manual sites

• Train snow surveyors in proper snow survey techniques and survival in remote areas

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SNOTEL Network

• 1974 - Congress authorized and funded the SNOTEL system to automate remote sensing of the snowpack information

• Reports daily snow water equivalent, precipitation, snow depth, temperature and other parameters as needed.

Solar Radiation

Relative Humidity

Wind

Air Temp

SnowDepth

Snow Water Equivalent

A typical Mountain SNOTEL station

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SNOTEL Site Locations

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Mt. Rose, NV SNOTEL Site

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Meteor Burst Technology

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Water Supply Forecasting

• 717 total WSF points, 499 are produced NRCS

• Joint activity with National Weather Service

• ~11,000 WSF issued in FY-2004

• 20 NRCS WSF points in Washington

• Over 58,000 “unique user” accesses to WSF in April 2004

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SS-WSF Personnel

• State Data Collection Offices• AK, CO, ID, MT,

OR, UT• State Water Supply

Specialists• AZ, CA, NV, NM,

WA, WY• NWCC Staff at

Portland, OR• Program Liaison in

Washington, DC

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PNW Snow Survey / WSF Team• Oregon Data Collection Office

• Jon Lea, Snow Survey Supervisor, 503-414-3267 • Sheila Strachan, Hydrologist, 503-414-3272 • Rashawn Tama-Sweet, Hydrologist, 503-414-3268 • Bill Overman, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3269 • Melissa Webb, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3270 • Scott Pattee, Water Supply Specialist, 360-428-7684

2021 E. College Way, Suite 214Mt. Vernon, WA [email protected]

• Water Supply Hydrologists - NWCC• Washington Cascades, Oregon, California, Jolyne Lea, 503-414-3040• Washington, Columbia Basin, Tom Perkins, 503-414-3059• Montana, Colorado, Jennifer Erxleben, 503-414-3033• Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Tom Pagano, 503-414-

3010• Modeling Hydrologist, David Garen, 503-414-3021

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Water Year 2005

• Washington Governor declares statewide drought emergency. $12 mil in funding sought.

• Oregon Governor declares drought emergency in Klamath Basin.

• What IS going on this year?• Extremes in the north (dry) and in the south (wet)• The best of times, the worst of times?• Impacts on the ski industry.• How does it compare to 2001 and 1977 in the PNW?• What’s the spring and summer water supply forecast?• What about next water year?• Is this a “flash drought?”

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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Snowpacks

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Statistical Snowpack Ranking

• 157 of 471 SNOTEL sites westwide with 20+ years of record rank in the lowest 5% (PNW)

• 17 of 471 SNOTEL sites rank in the highest 5% (Southwest, Great Basin)

• 25 Washington SNOTEL sites set record low snowpacks for March 15

• 30 Washington SNOTEL sites in the lowest 5% ranking

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Washington SNOTEL Sites

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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsElbow Lake – 3,200’

3/19/2005 3/19/2001

SWE 1” / PRCP 78” | SWE 20” / PRCP 55”

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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsRainy Pass – 4,780’

3/19/2005 3/19/2001

SWE 12” / PRCP 28” | SWE 20” / PRCP 20”

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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsStevens Pass – 4,070’

3/19/2005 3/19/2001

SWE 8” / PRCP 48” | SWE 20” / PRCP 25”

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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsWhite Pass – 4,500’

3/19/2005 3/19/2001

SWE 1” / PRCP 15” | SWE 11” / PRCP 13”

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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsCorral Pass – 6,000’

3/19/2005 3/19/2001

SWE 9” / PRCP 20” | SWE 17” / PRCP 20”

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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsParadise– 5,120’

3/19/2005 3/19/2001

SWE 22” / PRCP 48” | SWE 35” / PRCP 45”

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Snowpack ProjectionCorral Pass – 6,000’

Snow Water Equivalent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

701

-Oct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

NormalWYTDMax90%70%50%30%10%Min

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Precipitation ProjectionCorral Pass – 6,000’

Accumulated Precipitation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1001

-Oct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

NormalWYTDMax90%70%50%30%10%Min

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March 1, 1977 Water Supply Forecast

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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Water Supply

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NRCS / NWS WSF Points

NRCS – Blue NWS – Red Joint – Yellow

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Cle Elum Lake Inflow WSF

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Salmon Crk. Conconully

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Skagit Basin WSF

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White / Green River WSF

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Lewis / Cowlitz WSF

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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage

129% of Average Capacity 43% of Average Capacity

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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage

2001 ReservoirsBUMPING LAKE CLE ELUMKACHESSKEECHELUSRIMROCKCONCONULLY RESERVOIRSALMON LAKE

2005 Additional ReservoirsRossChelanDiablo

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Cle Elum Storage: Above Average

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Lurking in Southwest WA...

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Closing Thoughts

• “You can observe a lot just by watchin'.”

“The future ain’t what is used to be.”

Yogi Berra

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Closing Thoughts

• We need to learn to “manage climate impacts.”

• Maintain a robust climate observation network at all elevations.

• Integrate water supply forecasts with risk-based water management decision models.

• Enhance existing technology to deliver risk-based products directly to users in near real-time.

• Snowpack analysis, volume forecasts, special indexes (SWSI, Drought Monitor, etc.)

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Thank You

1 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 “Western...

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