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Voting With Their Feet: Migration Patterns Under The Celtic Tiger,
1996-2002.
Peter Connell1 and Dennis G. Pringle2
1. Information System Services, Trinity College Dublin
2. Dept. of Geography and National Institute for Regional and Spatial Analysis, National University of Ireland, Maynooth.
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Introduction
• Recent years have witnessed the construction of several indicators of social deprivation.
• These create quite different impressions of the geography of deprivation in Ireland.
• It is suggested that the analysis of migration patterns provides an alternative approach to understanding regional inequalities – on the assumption that people move from areas of disadvantage towards areas of greater opportunity.
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Limitations Of Net Migration
• It is a simple matter to calculate total net migration between census years (i.e population increase – births + deaths).
• This provides a useful overview, but it may disguise contradictory flows.
• It is therefore desirable to:– Disaggregate by age group;– Calculate separate estimates of in and out migration; – Make a distinction between internal and external
moves.
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Census Information
• The Census provides information on population by age• It also provides information at a county level on:
– External in migration in the previous 12 months; – Internal moves in the previous 12 months.
• External out migration must be estimated as a residual – i.e. internal in – internal out + external in - net
migration • It is assumed that the pattern of moves in the previous
12 months typifies the entire inter-censal period.
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Vital Statistics Information
• The Census does not provide information on births or deaths. This, however, is available from the annual reports on Vital Statistics.
• The Vital Statistics provides information on the number of deaths in each county each year by 5-year age groups.
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Disaggregating By Age
Attempts to disaggregate net migration by age are complicated by:– The number of deaths by age cohort at county level
is unknown; – The 6-year gap between the 1996 and 2002 censuses
complicates matters; – The census breakdown on moves in the previous 12
months by age is not as detailed as one would desire, either by age group or by area.
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Calculating Cohort Survival (1)
• Deaths in each age group in a given year need to be allocated to a cohort.
• Over a 6 year period deaths in a 5 year age group will be divided between three 5-year cohorts.
• Deaths were allocated between cohorts taking account of:– Relative sizes of each cohort;– Relative risks of death (using 1995-97 life tables)
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Calculating Cohort Survival (2)
• The deaths in age group x to x+4 is equal to:
rx.nx + rx+1.nx+1 + rx+2.nx+2 + rx+3.nx+3 + rx+4.nx+4 • In year one, all deaths will be in the same cohort.• In year two, the ratio is:
(rx+1.nx+1 + rx+2.nx+2 + rx+3.nx+3 + rx+4.nx+4) : rx.nx • The ratio may be adjusted in a similar manner for
subsequent years.• Ratios calculated at national level were used to allocate
deaths at county level.
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Net Migration By Age
• Once deaths are allocated to cohorts, the net migration for each cohort may be calculated as:Net Migration = Pop02 - Pop96 - Births + Deaths
• Due to the 6-year gap between the censuses, it is necessary to estimate 1996 populations in age groups 0-3, 4-8, 9-13 etc.
• The census provides information on age of population by single years at national level. The 1996 cohorts in each county were reallocated assuming national ratios.
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External Net Migration
• It is estimated that there were 73,918 male and 78,577 female migrants into the state 1996-2002.
• This represents 3.8 per cent of the total male population and 4.0 per cent of the female population in 2002.
• Net in migration represents a reversal of trends since the late 1970s.
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External Net Migration By Age
• Whilst there was a net flow of people into the country, there were substantial variations by age group.
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Net Migration By Age
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79
Perc
ent
Males
Females
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Net Migration Patterns
• Most counties experienced positive net migration, 1996-2002 – i.e. more people moved in than out.
• However, there were substantial spatial variations.
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Net Migration By Age
• There were considerable variations in the patterns of net migration by age.
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External Out Migration
• The net migration patterns in general suggest that the major urban areas attract younger people, who subsequently spill over into adjoining areas when they become home owners.
• These patterns do not take account of the external out migration in the 15-24 age group.
• This is not counted in the Census, but can be estimated as a residual.
• The patterns are quite different from the net migration patterns for the same age groups.
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Implications
• Net migration patterns superficially suggest the need to divert resources away from the major cities, especially Dublin, in the interests of spatial equity.
• However, closer examination suggests the possible existence of a ‘class’ dimension that remains hidden because external out migration is never counted.
• Anecdotal evidence suggests that this has always been the case.
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