Institutional Review, IIASA – 27 February 2017

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director GeneralInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

2017 #2Nakicenovic

1986 1988

UN Conference on Human Environment, 1972 (1st Earth Summit)

1981 1986

Villach Conferences 1985 & 1987

1978

IIASA Climate Change Related Reports

Scientific Assessments: Credible, Salient and Legitimate.

2017 #3Nakicenovic

What was the policy impact of these and many other science reports?

Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA

2017 #4Nakicenovic

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Cambridge University Press

2017 #5Nakicenovic

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

Cambridge University Press

2017 #6Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 GEA Goals and Targets●Universal Access to Modern Energy

●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

2017 #7Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

MikrochipKommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

VakuumröhreOttomotor

ElektrischerMotor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear-energie

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution

2017 #8Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Biomass

Coal

RenewablesNuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030

Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway

2017 #9Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Gm

3

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS

Source: Fricko et al, 2014

Global Water WithdrawalsA Transformational Pathway

2017 #10Nakicenovic

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal P

olic

y Cos

ts (2

010-

2030

)

Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

2017 #11Nakicenovic

Japan – SDG Implementation Guiding Principles & Specific Measures to Achieve SDGs

2017 #12Nakicenovic

IIASA Research“Science must be at the heart of this process so as to help achieve synergies and avoid

conflicts among the 17 SDGs.”

IIASA Partnerships

Nexus Solutions Partnership

The World In 2050

Global CommonsCD-LINKS

10 Member Group in support of the Technology Facilitation Mechanism

Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA

Independent group of 15 scientists to draft the quadrennial GSDR (since Jan 2017)

Source: Alex Röhrl, UN DESA

2017 #15Nakicenovic

How to achieve global development within a safe and just operating space

“Safe space” of interaction among SDGs: sustainability narratives and integrated models e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP

Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs of transformation toward sustainable futures

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

2017 #16

● Analysis, Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (AIMES) ● Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)● Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)● Climate Center Service Germany (GERICS)● Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)● Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative● Earth Institute, Columbia University ● Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro● Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford ● Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)● Future Earth● Future Ocean● German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) ● Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)● International Energy Agency (IEA)● International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)● International Monetary Fund (IMF)● International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) ● Joint Research Centre, European Commission● Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL)● Millennium Institute● MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change ● National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)● National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)● National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ● Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)● Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)● PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency● Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)● Stockholm Resilience Centre● Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)● Tsinghua University● UN DESA● UNEP ● World Bank

The World in 2050 Consortium

2017 #17Nakicenovic

Vision: Sustainable Future

→ Growing number of actors of change:

• green businesses• cities• civil society• science• IGOs (UN etc.)

Incremental

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

→ New values and norms

Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

→ 2050: Sustainability transformation

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

2017 #18Nakicenovic

Vision: Sustainable Future

Incremental

Tran

sfor

mat

ion

Diff

usio

n

→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

→ 2050: Sustainability transformation

→ New values and norms

Legitimacy of BAU eroding

Radical TransformationalSource: After WBGU, 2011

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

2017 #19Nakicenovic

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe. Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans Ende der Welt.

Disruptive Change

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

20

www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadbGEA Database

THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at