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ATMOS 397GATMOS 397GBiogeochemical Cycles and Global ChangeBiogeochemical Cycles and Global ChangeLecture 26: Climate, Energy and Carbon Lecture 26: Climate, Energy and Carbon

Sequestration (cont.)Sequestration (cont.)

Don WuebblesDon Wuebbles

Department of Atmospheric SciencesDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences

University of Illinois, Urbana, ILUniversity of Illinois, Urbana, IL

May 1, 2003May 1, 2003

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Terrestrial Sequestration

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Average C Sequestration (Pg C/year)

Strategy Low Estimate High Estimate

Forestry

Converting marginal crop/pasture to forest 0.033 0.119

Increasing timber growth on timber land 0.138 0.190

Growing short-rotation woody crops for energy 0.091 0.180

Increasing tree numbers/canopy cover in urban areas 0.011 0.034

Planting trees in shelter belts 0.003 0.006

Total (wood only) 0.276 0.529

Cropland

Cropland conversion to CRP (excluding agroforestry) 0.006 0.014

Conservation tillage/residue management 0.035 0.107

Altered cropping systems (fertilizer, cover crops, manures, irrigation) 0.024 0.063

Total (SOC only) 0.065 0.184

Pasture Management 0.010 0.010

Soil Restoration (eroded land, mine land, salt affected soil) 0.011 0.025

Total Forestry (wood) and Cropland/pasture (soil) 0.362 0.748

Potential for U.S. Sequestration

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The Global Potential of Carbon Sequestration by Forestation

The map shows the potential rate of carbon sequestration during 2008 -2012 -- the period when the Parties of the protocol must reduce their emissions or compensate them by carbon sequestration -- that may achieved in course on an afforestation project launched in 2000.

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Carbon Capture and Separation

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Carbon Capture and Sequestration ComponentsCarbon Capture and Sequestration Components

C/CO2

Flue/Syn Gas

Fossil Fuel Combustion

Atmospheric Concentration

Fixation or Reuse

Geological Storage or Disposal

Ocean Disposal(1)

Terrestrial Uptake

Deep Coal Seam

Saline Aquifer

Oil/Gas Reservoir

Separation & Capture

Transport

Flue Gas

(1) Environmental and public perception concerns may cause ocean disposal to be an unacceptable alternative

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•An alternative to storing CO2 is to convert it into another chemical

compound.

•Numerous CO2 conversion phenomena are found in nature.

• The most common is photosynthesis

• Mollusks use carbon dioxide that is dissolved in ocean water to build their shells

• Sandstone reacts with CO2 in the air to form minerals

• CO2 trapped in geologic formations over eons can be converted to methane, carbonates and

other species though biochemical processes that are not fully understood. 

•CO2 conversion processes can both reduce net carbon emissions and

provide significant collateral benefits. 

• Both photosynthetic processes and other no-light biochemical processes can convert CO2

back to fuel, creating regenerable energy systems that displace the need for new fossil

resources. 

• Certain biological processes produce valuable pharmaceutical compounds or specialty

chemicals that can be recovered and used to off-set the cost of CO2 capture.

• Mineralization converts CO2 into carbonate rocks, which can be used for soil amendments,

construction fill, and other applications. 

Carbon Reuse

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Examples of advanced process concepts focused solely on sequestration could include:Creation of novel manufactured products from captured CO2 with large potential ‘markets’

Direct capture of CO2 from the air

Use of CO2 to manufacture polymers that are currently in wide commercial use

Capture of CO2 in magnesium-containing materials to form magnesium carbonates

Produce ammonium bicarbonate (NH4HCO3) fertilizer from water, ammonia and carbon dioxide

Increase plant enzyme activity for carbon (rubisco, PEP carboxylase) and nitrogen fixation (nitrogenase) pathways to increase biomass yields

Modify plants to produce more durable or cost-competitive carbon-based materials.

An additional category emphasizes integration of capture technologies into energy production schemes:Use supercritical CO2 to form man-made geothermal hot-rock reservoirs and as the heat-transfer fluid in geothermal power plants.

Develop offshore energy complexes that generate power from undersea resources and return captured CO2 to undersea formations.

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Fuel Cells in Energy Production

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Ocean Sequestration

Direct Injection

Fertilization

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Ocean Fertilization is a sequestration strategy aimed at enhancing the transport of carbon through the base of the euphotic zone into the deep sea. A possible useful by product is increased fish yields. Research is required to avoid bad side effects such as toxic blooms.

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Direct Injection of CO2

into the mid-water column seeks to short circuit the natural delivery of CO2 into

the deep sea and minimize environmental impacts by avoiding the biologically

rich upper 1000 m

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from Brewer et al.

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Geologic Sequestration

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Coal Bed Methane. Coal beds typically contain

large amounts of methane-rich gas that is adsorbed

onto the surface of the coal.

The current practice for recovering coal bed methane

(CBM) is to depressurize the bed, usually by pumping

water out of the reservoir. An alternative approach is

to inject carbon dioxide gas into the bed, as shown.

Tests have shown that CO2 is roughly twice as

adsorbing on coal as methane, giving it the potential to

efficiently displace methane and remain sequestered in

the bed. CO2 recovery of CBM has been demonstrated

in limited field tests, but much more work is necessary

to understand and optimize the process.

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Energy SustainabilityEnergy Sustainability A Blueprint for a Clean Energy FutureA Blueprint for a Clean Energy Future

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U.S. Electricity Mix, 2001U.S. Electricity Mix, 2001

Coal51%

Nuclear21%

Hydro6%

Other*3%

Natural Gas17%

Renewables2%

US dependency on fossil fuels – particularly natural gas – forecasted to grow over next two decades.*Includes oil, municipal solid waste, and other fuels.

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2003.

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Measuring SustainabilityMeasuring Sustainability

Resource Availability

Economic Costs

Environmental and Public Health Impacts

Vulnerability (Security)

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Fossil Fuels - Sustainable?Fossil Fuels - Sustainable?

CoalAbundant and cheap supply

Natural GasAbundant supply, subject to price spikes

PetroleumU.S. Production in decline, Imports are increasingPersian Gulf: two-thirds of remaining proven

reserves

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Electricity is a MajorElectricity is a MajorContributor to Air PollutionContributor to Air Pollution

SO2

Transport

7%

Industry

15%

Commercial

3%Misc.

8%

Fuel other

3%

Electricity

67%

CO2

Transport

30%

I ndustry

20%

Commercial

4%Residential

6% Electricity

40%

NOx

Transport

51%

Industry

19%

Commercial

2%

Residential

4%

Electricity

25%

Source: EPA, 1998

Electric generation

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Unacceptable costs of air pollutionUnacceptable costs of air pollution

Soot, smog and toxins

Respiratory disease among children, elderly

Smog shrouding cities, national parks, forests and highest peaks

Acid rain destroying forests and lakes

Mercury in food chain

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Air pollution harms human healthAir pollution harms human health

~30,000 early U.S. deaths each year from power plant particulates

Smog impacts (all sources): 6.2 million asthma attacks 117,300 ER visits 58,600 hospital admissions

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Environmental impactsEnvironmental impacts Mountaintop removal coal miningMountaintop removal coal mining

15-25% of southern WV mountain tops removed

300,000 acres of forests

1,000 miles of streams buried

Source: Citizens Coal Council

http://www.citizenscoalcouncil.org/mtr.htm

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Environmental impactsEnvironmental impacts Big Sandy River, KY mine waste spillBig Sandy River, KY mine waste spill

Source: Southern Alliance for Clean Energyhttp://www.tngreen.com/cleanenergy/energy/coal/

KYdisaster/index.html

250 million gallon spill 75 miles of streams

contaminated Arsenic, mercury, lead,

copper, chromium

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Energy InsecurityEnergy Insecurity

Disruption at a key power plant, refinery, transmission hub or pipeline can break flow of power or fuel to millions and create cost spikes

Breach of nuclear reactor core or spent fuel storage cask would be catastrophic

Our economy is vulnerable to Persian Gulf politics and OPEC’s market power

Political events in Middle East precipitated last three major oil price shocks; each was followed by US recession

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Security ImpactsSecurity Impacts

Trans-Alaska Pipeline, 10/4/01Trans-Alaska Pipeline, 10/4/01

Refineries, pipelines, storage tanks, transmission lines vulnerable to sabotage

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U.S. obligation to lead internationally…U.S. obligation to lead internationally…

U.S.

186.1Total CO2

emissions since 1950 in billions

of tons

EuropeanUnion

127.8 Russia

68.4Ukraine

21.7Poland

14.4

China

57.6 Japan

31.2

Australia

7.6

India

15.5

Kazakhstan

10.1

South Africa

8.5

Canada

14.9

Mexico

7.8Trinidad and Tobago

United Arab Emirates

Kuwait

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Nuclear Power - Sustainable?Nuclear Power - Sustainable?

High cost technology Radioactive waste disposal Poorly regulated and

enforced safety standards Increased concerns over

the risks to national security

Yucca Mt.

Photo: DOE, OCRWM

Photo: NAESC

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Energy Sustainability SolutionsEnergy Sustainability Solutions

Renewable Energy SourcesWind SolarBioenergyGeothermal

Energy EfficiencyPreferred option: doing more with

less

Fuel Cells

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Wind PowerWind Power

- Fastest growing energy source in the world, with annual growth of more than 25% in the past decade

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Technical potential: Over 4 times current U.S. electricity use! (source: NREL)

Wind could realistically supply 20% of U.S. electricity(source: Battelle Pacific NW Lab)

Worldwide wind energy potential: more than 15 times current world energy demand!(source: DOE)

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Solar Energy PotentialSolar Energy Potential

200,000 homes in U.S. use solar PVs

Market expanding 20-25% annually worldwide

Could power US with PV on 0.3% of land area

Equals 1/3 of US roadways(National Center for Photovoltaics, NREL)

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Source: Oak Ridge National Lab, US DOE

US Energy Crop Potential in 2008, under $50/dry ton delivered

Technical potential equals 70% of US electricity use

Tripling biomass energy use by 2020 = $20 billion in new income for farmers and rural areas (DOE)

Potential for meeting electricity needs… Biomass energy crop potential

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Potential for meeting electricity needs…Potential for meeting electricity needs… Geothermal resource potentialGeothermal resource potential

Technical potential equals 14 times proven and unproven coal reserves

Sources: UURI, USGS

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Renewable Energy Success StoryRenewable Energy Success StoryPrice declines with R&D and growthPrice declines with R&D and growth

Photo: Green Mountain Power Corporation

Source: DOE

WindWind

PhotovoltaicsPhotovoltaics

Wind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

en

ts/k

Wh

40

30

20

10

0

PV

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

100

80

60

40

20CO

E c

en

ts/k

Wh

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GeothermalGeothermal

Solar thermalSolar thermal

Geothermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

en

ts/k

Wh

10

8

6

4

2

Solar thermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

CO

E c

en

ts/k

Wh

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Barriers to Renewable EnergyBarriers to Renewable Energy

Commercialization Barriers Infrastructure Economies of Scale

Unequal Government Subsidies and Taxes

Market Failure to Value Benefits of Renewables

Market Barriers Lack of Information Institutional Barriers High Transaction and Financing Costs Spilt Incentives Transmission Cost

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Sustainable Energy SolutionsSustainable Energy Solutions

UCS Clean Energy Blueprint - By 2020, produce 20% of our electricity from renewable energy and reduce overall energy use through a suite of policies:

Save consumers $440 billion ($350 annually per typical family)

Eliminate need for 975 new power plants, retire nearly 200 existing plants

Reduce carbon dioxide emissions by two-thirds, and NOx and SO2 by 55% from business as usual

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Policies Advocated by Policies Advocated by Clean Energy BlueprintClean Energy Blueprint

20% national Renewable Energy Standard Public benefits fund ($1/household/month) Extend production tax credits for wind, biomass; expand to

include additional technologies Boost R&D for renewable energy and efficiency Net metering for small, distributed generation systems Increase energy efficiency standards for appliances (e.g. air

conditioning) and equipment Incentives for combined heat and power facilities Enhance state building codes Tax incentives for efficient buildings Industrial efficiency measures

Blueprint policies endorsed by over 180 organizations.

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Sequential production of power (electricity or shaft work) and thermal energy from a single fuel source. CHP is a more efficient, cleaner, and reliable alternative to conventional generation.

CHP = Combined Heat and Power efficient energy generation program

                                                                                                                                          There are a variety of technologies that can be used for CHP. In most cases, small power generation consists of a heat engine, or prime mover, that creates shaft power that in turn drives an electric generator. In CHP mode, waste heat from the prime mover is recovered to provide steam or hot water to meet onsite needs. Prime movers for CHP systems include reciprocating engines, combustion or gas turbines, steam turbines, microturbines, and fuel cells. These prime movers are capable of burning a variety of fuels, including natural gas, coal and oil, and alternative fuels such as wood, biomass, black liquor and process gas. Many of the prime movers are commonly in use today, some are just entering the market, and others will be available within a few years.

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Electricity Generation under Business as Usual Clean Energy Blueprint

Electricity generationElectricity generationClean Energy BlueprintClean Energy Blueprint vs. Business as Usual vs. Business as Usual

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

HydroRenewablesCHP

Efficiency

Coal

Gas

NuclearRenew.

CHPHydro

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Bill

ion

19

99

$

Incremental Costs

Energy Bill Savings

Investment costs and energy bill savingsInvestment costs and energy bill savingsClean Energy BlueprintClean Energy Blueprint

Net savings reach $105 billion per year in 2020

Cumulative savings = $440 billion

How? Reduced electricity use and lower natural gas prices more than offset a slight increase in electricity prices.

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Power plant COPower plant CO22 emissions emissionsClean Energy BlueprintClean Energy Blueprint

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900M

illio

n M

etri

c

Historic & Business As UsualClean Energy Blueprint

CO2 reduced 66% from BAU

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NOx emissions

4.2 4.4

3.8

1.91.6 1.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

2007 2020

Year

Mill

ion

Met

ric T

ons

Business As Usual

Clean Energy Blueprint

4 Pollutant ReductionProposals

SO2 emissions

9.79.0

3.6

2.4 2.4

9.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2007 2020Year

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Ton

s

Power plant SO2 and NOx emissionsPower plant SO2 and NOx emissionsClean Energy BlueprintClean Energy Blueprint

SO2 and NOx reduced 55% from business as usual

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Millio

n Ba

rrels

of O

il

Clean Energy Blueprint plusFuel Economy StandardsClean Energy Blueprint

Arctic Refuge

Oil savingsOil savingsClean Energy Blueprint and CAFE vs. Arctic RefugeClean Energy Blueprint and CAFE vs. Arctic Refuge

Blueprint oil savings = 2x Arctic Refuge in 2020

CAFE = 10x Arctic Refuge in 2020

Photo: US FWS

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U.S. Leadership:U.S. Leadership:Is It Headed in Is It Headed in WrongWrong Direction? Direction?

White House National Energy Policy Arctic wildlife refuge drilling

Rollback environmental restrictions on coal power plants, refineries

Billions in subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear power

1,300 new power plants

Thousands of miles of pipelines and power lines

Modest proposals for renewables and energy efficiency

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Clean Energy BlueprintClean Energy Blueprint Summary Summary

Diversifies Our Energy Supply 20% Renewable Energy Reduces dependence on coal, natural gas, and nuclear power

Protects the Environment Significant reduction in CO2, NOx, and SO2

Reduces need for thousands of miles of new gas pipelines 60% reduction in coal use eliminates the need to mine and transport

750 million tons of coal per year by 2020

Saves Consumers Money $440 billion between 2002 and 2020

Reduces Vulnerable Facilities Avoids 975 new power plants (@300 MW) Retires 180 dirty coal plants (@500 MW) and 14 nuclear plants (@1000

MW)

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Global Energy Sustainability OptionsGlobal Energy Sustainability Options

Industrialized Nations Policy options are similar to the United States EU already doing more with renewables, with fewer

resources Greater commitment to addressing climate change and

to the international process (i.e. Kyoto)

Developing Nations Hundreds of millions with no access to electricity Over-reliance on hydropower Need for renewable resource assessments Distributed Generation (solar and wind)

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Global Energy SustainabilityGlobal Energy Sustainability

No single energy source is perfect The perfect must not be the enemy of the good. The good, however, must always be getting better.

We need to strive for: Fuel Diversity Energy Efficiency Broad access to technology & investment

So that we can achieve: Long-term reliability, affordability Reduced risk to public health, environment