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The EUROBRISA Project

David StephensonUniversity of Exeter

3rd EUROBRISA workshop, Barcelona, 14-16 December 2010

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Aims of EUROBRISA1. Strengthen collaboration and promote exchange of

expertise and information between European and South American climate scientists;

2. Produce improved seasonal climate forecasts for South America using recent scientific advances in both coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling and statistical calibration and combination of multi-model ensemble forecasts;

3. Develop forecast products for non-profitable governmental use in South America (e.g. reservoir management, hydropower production, and agriculture).

A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO DO SOMETHING REALLY IMPRESSIVE!

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Institutions and peopleUniversity of Exeter (UE), U.K. David Stephenson, Rachel Lowe … + Trevor Bailey

Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC), BrazilCaio Coelho, Maria Assuncao Dias, Simone Costa

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK. Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Magdalena Balmaseda

U.K. Met Office (UKMO), Exeter, U.K.Richard Graham, Alberto Arribas

Météo-France (MF), Toulouse, FranceMichel Deque, Jean-Philippe Piedelievre

Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), BrazilAlexandre Guetter

Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), Brazil

Antonio Moura, Lauro Fortes and Yumiko Marina T. da Anunciação University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, BrazilTercio Ambrizzi, Rosmeri Porfirio Rocha

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Partner activitiesUniversity of Exeter, School of Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics (UK): • Overall coordination of the network assisted by the Network Facilitator• Expert advice in the statistical calibration, combination, and verification of forecasts

Centre for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies (CPTEC, Brazil):• Develop and implement a procedure for producing best quality seasonal climate forecasts • Act as the S. American point of contact for the Network.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF):• Provide CPTEC with real-time seasonal forecast data from the European coupled model forecasting systems

Met Office (U.K. Met Office):• Provide ECMWF with real-time seasonal forecast data from the U.K. Met Office forecasting system;• Advise on the development of forecast products for applications in S. American hydropower production;• Collaborate with the U. of Exeter on how best to improve the seasonal forecasting system.

Météo-France: • Provide ECMWF with real-time seasonal forecast data from the Météo-France coupled model forecasting system

Federal University of Paraná (UFPR - Brazil): • Develop a seasonal stream flow forecasting system for use in hydro-electric power production forecasting• Perform diagnostic studies of hydrologic extreme events

Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET): • Research on the use and value of the combined and calibrated forecasts in agricultural activities

University of São Paulo, Department of Atmospheric Science (USP, Brazil):• Theoretical and observational studies of seasonal predictability• Production of regional seasonal predictions for southeast Brazil

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Objectives of this workshop

• Give EUROBRISA partners chance to meet each other and exchange ideas;

• Report on research achievements in final year since August 2009 until December 2010;

• Future plans– Publications; – Ideas for how to continue the colllaboration– Final report

• Dissemination of main achievements

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Plans from 2nd year workshop• Improving the EUROBRISA forecasting system

– Inclusion of more forecast models: CPTEC, MF, etc.– Improved skill: wider domain, streamfunction, more robust

regression– New visualisation e.g. the ternary colour scheme– Monthly mean precipitation output (for use in applications)– More careful comparison of skill with that of individual

systems• Integrated applications research

– Applications using combined and calibrated EUROBRISA forecasts

– Focus time period – recent La Nina (July 2006- Jan 2010)• Planned research publications

– High impact summary of system + apps (Bulletin of AMS)– Applications papers– New visualisation of forecasts paper(s)

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Facilitation activities (Oct 2009 – Dec 2010)

• Help organise the 3rd EUROBRISA workshop to be held in Brazil (Dec 2009)

• Assess, in collaboration with UFPR, CPTEC and INMET, the impacts of the use of forecasts products in applied activities (Jan 2010)

• Provide feedback to ECMWF, Met Office and Météo-France on the performance of the forecasting system in producing forecasts for use in applied activities (Feb 2010)

• Co-ordinate production of scientific articles on the work up to this date (Mar 2010)

• Write up the final report (Jun 2010)

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Final reportBrief summary (< 500 words)a) The Grant – history, start, end, people, duration of visits, etc.b) Objectivesc) Research activity – data, methods, problems encountered, type of

workd) Conclusions and achievements – extent to which exchanges were

successful, significance of research, evaluation of outcome (unsuccessful as well as successful)

e) Publications and dissemination – list actual and prospective publications, copies acknowledging Leverhulme support

f) Future plans for exchanges and research in fieldg) Five key words which best describe the area of research:

Operational seasonal climate forecast Brazil

a)-g) should be less than 2000 wordsNo later than 6 months after grant ends

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Now over to you …