1

Temporal Trend in

Anthropogenic Sulfur Aerosol

Transport from Central and

Eastern Europe to Israel

Temporal Trend in

Anthropogenic Sulfur Aerosol

Transport from Central and

Eastern Europe to Israel

Arnon Karnieli

The Remote Sensing Laboratory

Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert ResearchBen-Gurion University of the Negev

2

Aerosol Size DistributionAerosol Size Distribution

• Origin• Chemical composition;• Optical properties;• Transport distance;• Deposition rate;• Transformation mechanisms.

The two groups tend to differ in their:

3

Sulfur (S)Sulfur (S)

4

From Gas to AerosolFrom Gas to Aerosol

After combustion of the fossil fuels in the power plants, the sulfur dioxide is converted via a complex series of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to sulfuric acid and sulfate aerosols.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) Sulfuric acid

(H2SO4)

Sulfate (SO4

2−)

The lifetime of sulfur in the atmosphere ranges from 12 hours to 6 days.

5

SO2 in EuropeSO2 in Europe

Temporal trends of sulfur dioxide emissions in Europe

(sources: Vestreng et al., 2008)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

Su

lfu

r d

ioxi

de

emis

sio

n (

Tg

)

20 Tg

57 Tg

6

SO2 Sources 1990SO2 Sources 1990

West Europe East Europe Former USSR

23.52 Tg 12.47 Tg 29.05 Tg

Source: EDGAR (http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/)

7

SO2 Sources 2000SO2 Sources 2000

West Europe East Europe Former USSR

14.13 Tg 10.00 Tg 14.56 Tg

Source: EDGAR (http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/)

8

Trends by CountriesTrends by Countries

Source: EDGAR (http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/)

% decline 1999 - 2004

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Russia

Germ

any

Ukrain

e

Poland

Bulgar

ia

Czech

Rep

.

Roman

ia

Hunga

ry

Other

Su

lfu

r em

issi

on

(M

t/yr

).

1990 1995 2000 2004

70%

89%

71%

61%

54% 88%

48%76%

64%The most industrial countries

9

Hypothesis and ObjectivesHypothesis and Objectives

Hypothesis

The temporal trend of reduction in SO2 emissions in central and eastern Europe after 1991 results in a similar trend in sulfate levels in Israel as a receptor site.

Objective

To verify the hypothesis using several independent long-term aerosol datasets.

10

MethodologyMethodology

This hypothesis was examined by five independent long-term analyses –

• Processing of satellite images;

• Aerosol optical thickness and relative aerosol size analyses;

• Calculations of the radiative forcing;

• Analysis of aerosol samples;

• Airmass backward trajectories analysis.

The study was restricted to the summer season thus only dry sulfate particles are involved rather than the removal of sulfate from the atmosphere by wet deposition.

11

Source and Sink Areas Source and Sink Areas

Central & East Europe

Sede Boker Campus

Source

Sink

12

Summer Synoptic MapSummer Synoptic Map

High

Low

13

MODIS-Derived AOTMODIS-Derived AOT

Aerosol Optical Thickness

Fine mode fraction

14

Spaceborne Aerosol Optical Thickness Spaceborne Aerosol Optical Thickness

(July – August)

y = -0.01x + 18.97

R2 = 0.37P = 0.02

y = -0.01x + 21.96

R2 = 0.44P = 0.007

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

AO

T

Terra monthly mean total AOT Terra monthly mean fine AOT

15

AERONETAERONET

AERONET Worldwide

sites

AERONET Sede Boker site

16

Ground Aerosol Optical CharacteristicsGround Aerosol Optical Characteristics

(August)

y = -x + 1.33

R2 = 0.03P > 0.05

y = -0.01x + 19.26

R2 = 0.64P = 0.005

y = -0.01x + 20.32

R2 = 0.55P = 0.01

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

AO

T_4

40_T

, AO

T_4

40_F

, AO

T_4

40_C

AOT_440_T AOT_440_F AOT_440_C

17

Global Radiative ForcingGlobal Radiative Forcing

18

Modeled Radiative ForcingModeled Radiative Forcing

2000 2007 1998 2007

Fine radiative effect (W m-2) -3.4 -1.7 -2.9 -1.3

Coarse radiative effect (W m-2) -2.5 -2.5 0.4 0.4

Total radiative effect (W m-2) -5.9 -4.2 -2.5 -0.9

Absolute difference of total radiative

effect (W m-2)1.7 1.6

Difference of total radiative effect (%) -29 -65

Europe Israel

19

Aerosol samplerAerosol sampler

Sampling:

“Gent” PM10 Staked Filter Unit (SFU):

- Coarse fraction (2.5-10µm)

- Fine fraction (< 2.5µm)

20

Ground Coarse Fraction AerosolsGround Coarse Fraction Aerosols

Trend of Coarse Fraction Aerosols

y = 0.87x - 1708.60

R2 = 0.16P > 0.05

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year

Coa

rse

frac

tion

(mg/

m3)

21

Ground Fine Fraction AerosolsGround Fine Fraction Aerosols

Trend of Fine Fraction Aerosols

y = -0.30x + 608.44

R2 = 0.62P = 0.007

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year

Fin

e fr

actio

n (m

g/m

3)

22

Ground Sulfur Fine Fraction AerosolsGround Sulfur Fine Fraction Aerosols

Trend of Sulfur Fine Fraction Aerosols

y = -0.06x + 124.29

R2 = 0.71P = 0.002

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year

Sul

fur

fine

frac

tion

(mg/

m3)

23

S Airmass Backward Trajectories S Airmass Backward Trajectories

• 5-days

• Max 4,000 m

• 1995 – 2004

• 87 events

• Threshold S > 3 μg m-3

24

Conclusions (1)Conclusions (1)

• The study confirmed the hypothesis that the temporal trend of reduction in SO2 emissions in central and eastern Europe after 1991 results in a similar trend in sulfate levels in Israel as a receptor site.

• This conclusion is based on several independent long-term aerosol datasets.

25

IsraelIsrael

1990 1995 2000

280.7 Gg 370.4 Gg 447.7 Gg

60% increase between 1990 to 2000!

Source: EDGAR (http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/)

26

Conclusion (2)Conclusion (2)

Sede Boker site is not affected by aerosols originated in the Israeli coastal zone and can be served as a background station.

27

and special thanks to:

Yevgeny Derimian, Rodica Indoitu, Natalya Panov, Robert C. Levy, Lorraine A. Remer, Willy Maenhaut

and Brent N. Holben

28

ThanksThanks

29

10 events < 500 m 26 events < 1000 m

61 events < 2000 m 87 events < 4000 m

30

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

440 670 870 1020

SSA 27 Mar 96

Sin

gle

Sca

tter

ing

Alb

edo

Wavelength (µm)

absscat

scat

0

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

440 670 870 1020

SSA 12 May 96

Sin

gle

Sca

tter

ing

Alb

edo

Wavelength (µm)

Single Scattering Albedo (SSA)Single Scattering Albedo (SSA)

SAA is a measure of the amount of aerosol light extinction due to scattering

Anthropogenic aerosols Mineral dust

31

Single Scattering AlbedoSingle Scattering Albedo

y = -0.0001x + 1.17R2 = 0.0003

P > 0.05

0.88

0.89

0.9

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year

SS

A_4

40_T

(August)

32

Aerosol Size Distribution (24-26 Jan. 03)Aerosol Size Distribution (24-26 Jan. 03)

33

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

440 670 870 1020

Sin

gle

Sca

tter

ing

Alb

edo

Wavelength (nm)

absscat

scat

0

Nes Ziona

Single Scattering Albedo (Jan. 24-26, 2004)Single Scattering Albedo (Jan. 24-26, 2004)

34

AOT trendAOT trend

y = -x + 1.33R2 = 0.03P > 0.05

y = -0.01x + 19.26R2 = 0.64P = 0.005

y = -0.01x + 20.32R2 = 0.55P = 0.01

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

AO

T_4

40_T

, AO

T_4

40_F

, AO

T_4

40_C

AOT_440_T AOT_440_F AOT_440_C

35

Sulfur trendSulfur trend

36

Synoptic mapSynoptic map

Mean June-September 1000 hPa height contours

Source: Alpert et al. 1990

37

S back trajectoriesS back trajectories

38

Trends by regionsTrends by regions

Source: EDGAR (http://www.mnp.nl/edgar/)