1

Status of

NERON/HCN-Mfor

The Committee for

Climate Analysis, Monitoring, and Services (CCAMS)

John Hahn

NWS Office of Science and Technology

2

General Overview – Program Description

• HCN-M evolved from the former NERON (NOAA Environmental Real Time Observing Network Program). – NERON was redirected by the NEP to modernize the Historical

Climate Network (HCN-M)

• HCN-M will sustain the Nation’s regional temperature and precipitation climate record – Modernize 1,000 of the existing 1,221 HCN stations to collect

temperature and precipitation data through automation

– Provide for expansion capacity to collect other data sets (e.g., National Integrated Drought Information System, NIDIS, dataset)

– Address the gaps in the HCN including: data quality, data availability, and aging technology

• The primary requirement for the HCN is to produce quality climate observations for sustaining the nation’s regional climate record in support of monitoring and assessment of the surface climate.

3

General Overview – HCN Today

Current Capabilities

• The HCN is an NWS operated sub-network of COOP stations

– Network created to compile data suitable for detecting and monitoring regional climate variability

– Stations must have >80 years of continuous data record with the majority having >100 years

– 1,221 stations identified by NCDC

• Observations– Daily observations of Temperature and

Precipitation recorded manually by volunteers– NCDC publishes data within 30-90 days

• Uses– Climate assessments, state of the climate

reports, and commercial sector– Specialized scientific analyses

Gaps

• Data quality– Attrition of current volunteers 1

– Manual process susceptible to human errors in observing and documentation1

– Significant number of stations no longer meet siting requirements due to overgrowth and urbanization 2

• Data availability– Due to manual process, not available for up to

90 days1

• Technology– Aging equipment and maintenance issues 1

– Not expandable to cost effectively add new sensors 1

1 National Research Council. 1998. Toward a New National Weather Service. Future of the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network. Washington, D.C. pp. 12-18

2 Christopher A. Davey and Roger A. Pielke Sr.. 2005: *Microclimate Exposures of Surface-Based Weather Stations: Implications For The Assessment of Long-Term Temperature Trends.* /Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society/: Vol. 86, No. 4, pp. 497–504

4

General Overview – Key Customers and Stakeholders

• Internal – NCDC climate record archive– OAR analyses and NIDIS Project– NWS climate products and services

• External– U.S. Departments Agriculture and Interior (Stakeholders)– Private, Public and Academic members of the weather

enterprise communities • State climatologists• Consulting meteorologists and climatologists• Design standards community (e.g., engineering,

construction, energy)• Water resource managers

5

General Overview –Draft Locations for HCN-M Sites

6

Overview of Project

• Project will follow the OSIP and NOAA KDP processes as a Major Project.

• Level 1 Requirements Document defines the scope.– Developed through collaboration between NESDIS/NCDC,

NWS/OCWWS, OOS and OS&T.– Delivered to NOSC for review and comment.

• Climate is the focus (climate requirements are primary)

• Input from all primary stakeholders is required for success– Climate Community in NOAA (NCDC, CPC, OCWWS/CSD)– Regions

7

Level 1 Requirements Document (Final Draft)

• Level 1 document distributed to NOSC for review on September 28, 2007

– HCN-M consists of 1000 sites for the purpose of automation of air temperature and precipitation observations and transmittal

– 5 minute collections of temperature (+/- 1 deg) & precipitation (+/- .02 in)

– Minimum daily transmittal of data

– Design for expansion (snow, soil moisture, etc.)

– Raw data distributed to MADIS and NCDC

8

Performance Metric

• The performance of HCN-M will be measured by the improvement in the percentage of the explained variance of both regional temperature and precipitation.

• The target is to have 95% variance explained for temperature and precipitation with the completion of ~1,000 sites. The following table demonstrates the relationship between the number of sites and the expected improvement in the performance measures.

9

Project Schedule

Jan 07 Jan 08 Sep 08 Sep 09OSIP Gate 1

CompleteOSIP Gate 2

CompleteOSIP Gate 3

CompleteOSIP Gate 4

Complete

Stage 4: Acquisition Plan

Stage 3: Recommend Solution

Stage 2: Alternatives & Develop Plan

Stage 1:Identify Need

Project Planning Documents

Cost Benefit Analysis

System Design

Dev Transition Strategy

Dev Acquisition Plan

Com

plet

ion

Establish IWT Develop ConOps

Develop RFI

Initiate Site Surveys

Acquisition Strategy

Site Surveys

Dev O&M Plan

10

Next Steps

– Continue the OSIP process and KDP Gate reviews• KDP 2 January 2008• KDP 3 September 2008

– Develop Acquisitions Strategy and Plan for Site Surveys

• Work with SCC/RCCs to investigate their conducting site surveys and compiling meta data

– Finalize the Integrated Work Team– Conduct Risk Assessment and develop Risk

Management Plan– Develop WBS, Project Milestones and Schedule for

FY08