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Statistics in Action

New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Sonia Petrie – Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand

Overview

• Inventory requirements• New Zealand’s national inventory system• Emissions profile• Current activity data • Future data needs

National greenhouse gas inventories

• Reporting emissions and removals across six sectors

• Annual inventory submission due 15 April

– Strict deadline

– Use common reporting format software and tables

– Use IPCC guidelines and good practice guidance

IPCC good practice principles

Transparency

Accuracy

Completeness

Consistency

Comparability

National System

• National systems under Article 5 of Kyoto Protocol

– Mandatory

– Ensure capacity for timely performance

– Quality management including continuous improvement

New Zealand’s National System

• Ministry for the Environment - national entity with overall responsibility

– Climate Change Response Act (2002, revised 2008)

– National greenhouse gas inventories since mid 1990s

– Procedures for changes in methods and emission factors

– Distributed system

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UNFCCC Secretariat

MfE

MfEMED

Energy IP / Solvents Waste LULUCF Agriculture

MED MfE MfE MfE

Stats

NZ

MED ConsultMED Consult Stats

NZ

MfE Consult MfE MAF MAF Stats

NZ

Consult

International Inventory Compiler

National Inventory Compiler

CRF Data Input

Sector

Sectoral Expertise

Data Sources

MAF

Institutional and procedural arrangements for the compilation of New Zealand’s annual inventory

MAF

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Energy Industrialprocesses

Solvents Waste Agriculture

Gg

CO

2-e

qu

ival

ent

1990 Emissions 2006 Emissions

45.0%

24.4%

- 3.0%

15.9%

- 25.9%

New Zealand - growth in sectors

New Zealand - growth in gases

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

HFC's PFC's

Mt

CO

2 -

equ

ival

ent

1990 Emissions 2006 Emissions

43% 8 %

27 %

- 86% 7 %NA

CO2 CH4 N2O SF6

Activity Data

Energy• Liquid fuels: Delivery of Petroleum Fuels Survey• Solid fuels: Coal Sales Survey• Gaseous fuels: Gas fields to gas users• Biomass: Industry users

Industrial Processes• Direct from industry – voluntary reporting• Transparency versus confidentiality

Activity Data

Solid Waste• Periodic surveys on waste quantity & composition• National landfill census (2006/07) and audit

(2002)

Activity DataLand use, land use change and forestry• Present:

– National Exotic Forest Description Survey

– Land cover databases

– Research science important for establishing emission factors

• Future:

– Land use and carbon analysis system (LUCAS)

Kyoto Forest Plot Sites

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Example of 1 ha Land Use Mapping, from 1990 Landsat imagery

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Activity DataAgriculture• Statistics New Zealand agricultural production

census/surveys• Productivity data from government and industry• Combining accurate official statistics and research

science critical for agriculture sector

Agriculture Model

(each livestockclass separately)

Population characterization(birth, maturity, death)

Breeding status

Age

Monthly time step

Population characterization(birth, maturity, death)

Breeding status

Age

Monthly time step

Performance(eg, size, milk yield, growth rate

Energy requirement(Australian Feeding Stds)

Dietary composition(energy, protein, etc)

Monthly time step

Performance(eg, size, milk yield, growth rate

Energy requirement(Australian Feeding Stds)

Dietary composition(energy, protein, etc)

Monthly time step× CH4 conversion rate(Derived from SF6-tracer based estimates)

Sheep < 1yr: 5.1% GEI

Sheep > 1yr: 6.3% GEI

Dairy Cattle: 6.5% GEI

Beef Cattle: as above

Deer: 6.4% GEI

Population DMI per head

Total Population DMI

Population DMI per head

Total Population DMI

Sheep Dairy Cattle Beef Cattle Deer

Future data requirements

• Disaggregated data– Regional level ?– Farm type ?– Paddock scale ?

• Capturing mitigation technologies– Example: nitrification inhibitors

Disaggregation by region

Methane Nitrous oxide

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Colours on the map represent differing application dates - enabling real time recording of each application of eco-n.

Key Messages

• Voluntary reporting and official statistics backed up by legislation

• Good national picture of emissions• Creating a time series of data is critical for

climate change reporting• Challenge in obtaining data at disaggregated

level to capture mitigation