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Contact Information:

Dr. Howard J. Singer, ChiefResearch and Development DivisionNOAA Space Environment Center325 BroadwayBoulder, CO 80305

303-497-6959303-497-5388howard.singer@noaa.gov

Background Aurora Photo of Boulder Flatirons and NCAR by:Stan Solomon/NCAR HAO

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Supporting Space Weather Users with the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) and Solar

Imaging on GOES-R

Outline:

• Space Weather • SEC and NOAA Mission Goals• SEM: GOES 8-12 to GOES R• SEM Users• The Future

Third GOES-R Users’ ConferenceBroomfield, CO May 11, 2004

H. J. Singer, NOAA Space Envrionment Center

GOES 8-12

Photo: NCAR Stan Solomon

GOES NOP

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Space Weather: Sun to EarthA NASA animation of a space weather event as it starts at the sun and

ends up at Earth

– Solar Flare

• Light and X-Rays• Particles

– Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

• Particles and Fields– Magnetosphere

• Deflects the solar wind• Energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere when

interplanetary field opposite direction of Earth’s field• Accelerates particles

– Ionosphere• Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere

producing the aurora

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Space Weather: Sun to EarthA NASA animation of a space weather event as it starts at the sun and

ends up at Earth

– Solar Flare (Observed by GOES X-ray and particle instruments: SXI, XRS, EPS)

• Light and X-rays• Particles

– Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (Observed by GOES proposed coronagraph: SCOR and proposed solar wind monitor)

• Particles and Fields– Magnetosphere (Observed by GOES particle and field

instruments: EPS, MAG) • Deflects the solar wind• Energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere when

interplanetary field opposite direction of Earth’s field• Accelerates particles

– Ionosphere (Observed by POES/NPOESS instruments)• Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere

producing the aurora

Space Weather: Sun to Earth

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GOES Space Environment Monitor Contributes to the SEC Mission and NOAA Mission Goals

Space Environment Center Mission • Nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings• Monitors and forecasts Earth's space environment• Provides accurate, reliable, and useful solar-terrestrial information• Conducts and leads R& D programs to understand the environment and to improve services• Advises policy makers and planners• Plays a leadership role in the space weather community• Fosters a space weather services industry

Space Weather Operations

NOAA Mission Goals

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NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)

Space Weather Instrumentation GOES 8-12

Satellites: GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan)

(Launch: 4/25/97, Operational) GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage)

GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational) GOES NOP (Boeing production, launch start 12/04)

GOES 10

Space Environment Monitor (SEM)

Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and alpha particle fluxes e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV

Magnetometer (MAG) Monitors the vector magnetic field 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT

X-Ray Sensor (XRS) Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms

Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array

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GOES NOP SEM Enhancement Summary

Magnetometer (MAG)• Two instruments operating simultaneouslyEnergetic Particle Sensors (EPS)• Lower electron (30 KeV) and proton (80

keV) energy limits• More look-directionsX-Ray Sensor (XRS)• Eliminate electronic range-changingEUV Sensor (EUVS)• New instrument with 5 wavelength bands 10 – 125 nmSolar X-Ray Imager (SXI)• Improved sensitivity and resolution• Autonomous event response

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0.1 1.0 10010 1000 10000Wavelength (nm)

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GOES SXI

GOES EUV

POESSBUV

NPOESS(SIM)

NPOESS(TIM)

Spectrum from Lean 1999

NOAA Observations Across the Solar Spectrum and Flux Variation with Solar Cycle

• EUV flux variation causes thermospheric temperature, density, composition, and scale height to vary with solar cycle

• X-ray flux variation causes immediate changes in the dayside ionosphere that affects signals that reflect from this region or propagate through it

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GOES R+ SEM: Improvements 1Measurement Specifications Products

Magnetospheric Plasma (SEISS-MPS) and Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (SEISS-EHIS)

Electrons and Protons 30 eV to 30 keV; Heavy Ions in 4 mass bands 10-200 MeV/n

• Improved specification of spacecraft surface charging and single event upsets (SEU’s)

Earth’s Magnetic Field (MAG)

Data sampling goal 8 Hz instead of 2 Hz

• Improves monitoring of critical physical processes affecting energetic particles

Soft x-ray emissions from the integrated solar disk (SIS/XRS)

Dynamic Range 200,000 (was 100,000)

• Improved quality covering full solar dynamic range

Extreme ultraviolet emissions from the integrated solar disk(SIS/EUVS)

Include new options to meet spectral requirements with alternative techniques

• Improved height resolution in calculations of thermospheric heating rates and ionization rates; critical components in the modeling of the ionosphere and thermosphere

SEISS – Space Environment In-Situ Suite; SIS – Solar Imaging Suite

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• Solar X-ray Imager (SIS/SXI)

– Increase dynamic range from 102 to 104

– Double sensitivity

– Improve spatial resolution

• Coronagraph P3I

– Detect Earth-directed coronal mass ejections up to 2500 km/s

– Must cover approx. 12 RSUN/hour with three to four images

LASCO C3 GOES R

GOES R+ SEM: Improvements 2Solar X-Ray Imager and Coronograph

SXI/EIT Nov 04 Storm

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P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts

A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes:

• Did a CME occur?• Will the CME hit the Earth,

thus causing a geomagnetic storm?

• When will the storm begin?– 1-3 days warning

• How strong will the storm be?

• How long will the storm last?

Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003

NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms

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User Involvement in Establishing GOES R Space Enviornment Monitor

Instrumentation

• GOES Solar Imaging Workshop - October 2001• GOES Energetic Particle Workshop - October 2002 • GOES Solar EUV Workshop - October 2002• Airline Workshop - February 2004• GOES R Workshops• Formulation Phase Study Opportunities

- Solar Imaging Suite (SIS) - Space Environment In-SituSuite (SEISS)

- Magnetometer part of spacecraft procurement• Space Weather Week

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Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations

An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes:

• Space environment user effects• Impacts on economy, health, and safety• Information for decision makers • Relevant research• Service enhancements• Vendor meetings• Interagency coordination (National Space Weather Program)• International Space Environment Services

SWW 2004 (April 13-16) had 250 attendees from industry, academia, government agencies.

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October/November 2003 Halloween Storms SEC’s First Service Assessment

• Service Assessment issued: “Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 – November 07, 2003”

• Alerts/Warnings– 18 days w/Radio Blackouts– 12 days w/Geomagnetic Storms– 13 days w/Radiation Storms

• Selected Impacts– 76% of NASA Earth and Space

Science missions surveyed were affected

– 2 science instruments lost– ADEOS-2 spacecraft was lost– Airlines reported communications

problems• Polar route changes

– NRC: > 6 nuclear power plants took mitigating action

– Power grid: US preventative action

• Malmo, Sweden blackout

DRAFT

Numerous Alerts and Warnings issued based on GOES data

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Polar 2

Polar 3

Polar 1

Polar 4

Polar Airline Routes

North Pole Chicago

Hong Kong

Alaska

• A major airline rerouted six polar flights to non-polar routes requiring fuel stops in Japan and/or Anchorage).

• Numerous other US flights rerouted or restricted.

• British controllers kept trans-Atlantic jets on more southerly routes than usual to avoid the communication problems.

• British Airways pilots deviated from the airline's flight plans and flew at lower altitudes amid concerns over health risks to passengers and crew from radiation.

Aviation Impacts During Halloween Storms

Radio BlackoutDuring

Particle Events

• C-130 operations in Antarctica changed landing and take-off restrictions during the HF blackout periods.

GOES Energetic Particle Data Used for Airline Alerts

and Warnings

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Flight controllers issued contingency directives for the ISS Expedition 8 crew to briefly relocate to the aft portion of the station's Zvezda Service Module and the Temporary Sleep Station (TeSS) in the U.S. Lab. (total – five 20-minute periods)

NASA did a ground-commanded powerdown of the billion dollar robotic arm and workstation.

ISS Environments System Team prepared to take other precautionary actions (e.g., shut down the S-band antenna controller and external color TV cameras) if radiation levels were to increase more than they did.

The ISS Environments System Team also reported that the ISS experienced significant abnormal frictional drag.

International Space Station Impacts

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In July 2003, during Hurricane Claudette, the NOAA National Hurricane Center website averaged 3.7 million hits per day. During the 15-day period - 24 Oct through 07 Nov, the

SEC website averaged 6.2 million hits per day.

How much interest was there in the Oct-Nov activity???

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• Near the Earth and under the radiation belts -Shuttle and ISS ops:EVA scheduling, and occasional “sheltering”.Knowledge of current SWx situation required.

• In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhances exploration.

• Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars: Need for optimizationof flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions.Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq

An Example for The Future: GOES SEM Measurements needed for Space

Exploration

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GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) measurements provide crucial data to our Nation and the world for commercial and government applications and for understanding the space environment.

NOAA services must expand to meet the needs of our Nation’s increasing use of and reliance on the space environment.

User input has provided the necessary guidance to define GOES R SEM instrumentation.

GOES-R SEM activities are in the formulation phase.

Summary

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• Additional slides

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GOES SEM Measurements Benefit Users

“Highest priority space weather need for NASA SRAG is a “Healthy” NOAA SEC…” M. Golightly, NASA/SRAG

GOES Energetic Particle Measurements Support the ISS

As of a May 2000 report, 138 insured satellites in geosynchronous orbit valued at $20.1 B. “Space weather suggested as cause or contributor to over $500 M in insurance claims in past 4 years. “ U.S. Aviation Underwriters, Inc

Geosynchronous Assets

Polar airline routes lose ground communications due to solar x-rays and energetic particles: Alternate routes required; Uses more fuel; Flight delays

USA Japan

ES

A

Hubble

Variability in the EUV flux causes variability in the ionosphere.

Radio Communication & Navigation

GOES meaurements are useful for those concerned with: satellite drag; GPS uses; airline crew radiation exposure; electric power distribution….