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Scope and Trend of Urbanization in Scope and Trend of Urbanization in MadheshMadhesh

Er. Kishore K. JhaConsulting Engineer/Planner

Paper to be presented in a conference on

Role of NGOs/INGOs in Developing MadheshKathmandu, Nepal.

Organized by: Non-Resident Madheshis Association

November 14 & 15, 2011November 14 & 15, 2011

THE PRELUDETHE PRELUDEHistorical Past of Madhesh- Gifting of territory by British

-Colonization, Marginalization, Discrimination,….of Madheshis

-Movements: muliparty democracy 2046, madheshi uprising 2063

Concurrent State of Affairs- Constitution Making Process..Federal Structure..Autonomy

- Obama vs. Dr. Ram B Yadav-Composition of Present Cabinet . What is in the offering for common Madheshi?? -Low agricultural productivity, increased migration from hills/mountain

The Way Forward Paradigm Shift in Approach to Development1. Analyzing Scope and Trend of Urbanization

2. Prioritizing Urban Investment Areas – promoting economic growth for both urban and rural areas.

3. Adopting Inclusive Regional Development Strategy

22Role of NGOs/INGOs/Development Partners & Actors/ Intellingentia /CivilSociety /Investors&Entreprenuers…..Political Leadership

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Remittances in NepalRemittances in Nepal– – NLSS III 2011NLSS III 2011

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Consumption Pattern, NepalConsumption Pattern, Nepal– – NLSS III 2011NLSS III 2011

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Nepal: HH & Per Capita Income Nepal: HH & Per Capita Income – – NLSS III 2011NLSS III 2011

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Employment Pattern Employment Pattern – – NLSS III 2011NLSS III 2011

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Demographic Structure Demographic Structure – – NLSS III 2011NLSS III 2011

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Access to Facilities Access to Facilities – – NLSS III 2011NLSS III 2011

Urbanization??? Urbanization??? ––

Urbanization, is defined as the percentage of total population living in settlements designated as urban areas.

Urbanization vs. Economic Growth (positively associated with real per capita income. (the World Bank)

Spatial transformations accelerate growth –reallocation of labor and capital from traditional (rural) sectors to modern (urban) sectors.

Agglomeration and Clustering - households and firms benefit from scale economies, mobility, and specialization.

Increased urbanization economic growth job creation poverty reduction Increased urbanization .

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Urbanization - The Asian ExperiencesUrbanization - The Asian Experiences

• Urban Population in Asia is growing faster than ever before – 1.1 billion more Asian (half of total) will be living in urban area by 2030 than 2005 – 44 million people every year.

• Rapid urbanization has been the key drivers of Asia’s dynamic growth, and of the poverty reduction.

• East Asia’s urban population produces 92% of its wealth, South Asia’s urbanites produce 75% of wealth.

• But one third of Asia’s absolute poor (less than $1 a day) live in urban areas- population of slum dwellers will grow by average 110 million people. Asian Cities are earth’s worst polluters.

• Aligning transport and urban land use planning is the most important action for sustainable and liveable Asian cities.

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Urbanization vs Sectors of EconomyUrbanization vs Sectors of Economy

• Urbanization Pattern is contingent on economic sector – services cluster more in larger cities and manufacturing into smaller cities or newer towns.

• Nearly 6 percent of the urban population lives in the largest cities in India, which is double in comparison to China.

• China has many smaller cities than India, as it has a bigger manufacturing sector compared to India.

• India which is among the most densely populated countries in the world, is also among the least urbanized. Despite rapid economic growth, the urbanization rate remains low at less than 30 percent( 29% of its population, and the CIA Fact Book estimates it growing at 2.4% ), compared to 40 percent in China.

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Urban Growth Patterns in NepalParameters 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011Number of Urban Areas (Nepal) 16 16 23 33 58 58Number of Urban Areas (Tarai) 11 11 14 21 29 29Urban Population - Nepal ('000) 336 462 957 1696 3228 4500Urban Population - Nepal (%) 3.6 4 6.4 9.2 14.2 17.1Urban Growth Rate (% per annum) 4.4 3.23 7.55 5.89 6.65 3.38National Population Growth Rate 1.65 2.07 2.66 2.1 2.25 1.4

1. Hierrarchial Level of Municipalities

2. The National Urban Policy (2007) sets threshold population of 5,000 for any settlement to be termed as ‘town’. Accordingly, small town could be defined as: § Population 5,000 to 40,000 (Hills and Terai), § Road Access – located on a road linked to the strategic road network , Basic Infrastructure – at least one lower secondary school and a health post, in addition to grid electricity, basic telecom, banking etc. However, 145 “large” rural settlements with more than 10,000 population each in 1991 have been considered as most likely future municipalities, and included as urban area.

1. Metropolis, popln. > 300,000, annual revenue NRs. > 400m : Kathmandu, 2. Sub Metropolis, popln. > 100,000, annual revenue NRs. 100m: Biratnagar, Birgunj, Lalitpur & Pokhara. 3. Municipalities -Tarai, popln. > 20,000, annual revenue NRs. 5m. 4. Municipalities -Hills/Mountain, popln. > 10,000, annual revenue NRs o.5m: total 29 (27 + 2) nos.

3. Based on above, that is by adding the projected population of 145 emerging towns, the total urban population is estimated 27% as of 2011.

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Regional Distribution of Urban Areas (Municipalities) in NepalRegional Distribution of Urban Areas (Municipalities) in Nepal

Urbanization in NepalUrbanization in Nepal• Nepal remains one of the least urbanized countries in the world

and also in South Asia. Absence of strong correlation between urbanization and economic growth – high dependency on traditional agriculture as a source of livelihood.

• Existing urban areas were neither well developed nor well connected in terms of their geographical distribution – towns created for exploitation rather than facilitating growth of its rural hinterland.

• The concept of "urbanization" is misunderstood, and misinterpreted - misguided assumptions about the continuation of rural economic predominance - potential of urbanization as a necessary contemporary force in national socio-economic development has been ignored or dismissed. by national planners -has completely ignored the spatial reality of rural-urban interdependence

• National Planning Authority should gain political support to formulate a national urbanization policy for an immediate and measurable development impact.

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Transportation and Economic Linkages - ExternalTransportation and Economic Linkages - External

Source: NPC/ADB TA 4752-NEP: Regional Development Strategy, 2007

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Transportation and Economic Linkages - InternalTransportation and Economic Linkages - Internal

Source: NPC/ADB TA 4752-NEP: Regional Development Strategy, 2007

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Potentials and Challenges of Urbanization- the Potentials and Challenges of Urbanization- the context of Madheshcontext of Madhesh

Neither the goals of increased agricultural productivity and income expansion nor those of greater equity in income distribution can be attained without increasing the interaction among villages, market towns, intermediate cities and metropolitan areas.

Substantial movement of people from the mountain and hilly regions to the Terai have been observed. Greater population concentrations in the Terai may result in over-utilization of arable land. Considering that it would be very difficult to check this migration, the incoming populations need to be diverted into non-landbased productive activities in the agro-industrial and agro-commercial sectors

The number of emerging urban centers and smaller towns (market towns along EW Highway and nodal centers in rural hinterland) evidence increasing trend towards urbanization. The newly formed urban nodes and the expanding urban centres are essential for the continued expansion of agricultural productivity and diversification.

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Urban areas and towns lack basic infrastructure services. Safe drinking water supplies and electricity are inadequate in urban areas and towns, a situation that is endemic nationwide. There is virtually no sanitary waste disposal system, and solid waste systems are extremely inadequate. Urban road conditions are dilapidated. None of the urban areas has a functioning storm-water drainage system. The price of land and housing have been at the mercy of speculative market without adhering to quality supply of urban land, and there is a scarcity of financial resources for investment.

The combined effects of the expansion of agro-commercialization (via formation of market centres) and the availability of goods and services (via formation of urban services nodes) will be the industrialization of the agricultural sector through increases in technological agro-product innovations.

Potentials and Challenges …… continuedPotentials and Challenges …… continued

These newly formed market centres and service delivery nodes in time will become small- and medium-size urban centres, further stimulating the on-going agro-commercialization and agro-industrialization processes in Nepal. These urban centres are also essential for meeting the increased demand for goods and services of the agricultural labour force.

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Source: NPC/ADB TA 4752-NEP: Regional Development Strategy, 2007

Proposed Urban Economic Growth RegionsProposed Urban Economic Growth Regions

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Role of NGOs/INGOsRole of NGOs/INGOsAdvocacy for promoting urban roles and functions as the engine of growth, based on following premises;(i)Urban areas drive economic growth(ii)Urban areas offer more employment opportunities, help reduce poverty and promote equity.(iii)Urban areas exert influence over surrounding areas by attracting people, goods and capital;(iv)The hinterland connection to its urban hub/or centers is essential to fully unleash economic potential of the respective urban economic regions(v)Urban Rural links are symbiotic rather than dichotomus.

Following preventive measures are recommended to address the menace of unplanned urbanization: (i)Generating awareness among the communities regarding the irregular expansion of urbanization, (ii)Organising various activities to communicate in relation to environment and health, using the media campaign through radio, TV, papers, journals and pamphlets, (iii) Facilitating NGOs/INGOs to participate in operation and management of urban infrastructure and services following public-private partnership approach.

Thank you!!!Thank you!!!

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