1

Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATECHANGE IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED AREASAND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS21)

Rodel D. LascoUniversity of the Philippines

2

Introduction

Philippines: > 70% of the total land area lies within watersheds

421 principal river basinsIrrigate > 1.5 M ha of agricultural lands Hydropower major energy source18-20M people living in uplandsIndonesia: most of watersheds in Java

are already at critical stage

3

Landuse change in watersheds

4

Project objectives

Assess the impacts of climate change to water resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems

Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of natural and social systems

Develop adaptation strategies Promote stakeholder participation Contribute to peer reviewed literatureHelp build capacity of local scientists

5

Research Team

Philippines: University of the Philippines at Los Baños (UPLB)Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)

Prof. Dr. Rodel D. LascoProf. Dr. Rex Victor O. CruzDr. Juan M. PulhinDENR representative

Indonesia: Institute Pertanian Bogor Dr. Rizaldi BoerDr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir

6

Key PartnersDr. Meine van Noordwijk

International Center for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia

Dr. Josep CanadellGCTE, Australia

Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and CambodiaNational government agencies, NGOs and

people’s organizations

7

Methods

study will focus on a watershed each in the Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia (Tulang Bawang Watershed).

Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of the research process

8

The Pantabangan Watershed

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Research Framework

Climate change scenario

Biophysical factors

THE WATERSHED SYSTEM

Forest/carbon budget

WaterBudget

Land use and land cover change

Socio-economic political factors

Local communities

20

Climate scenario: MAGICC-SCENGEN

21

22

Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA in 2080 using SRESA2 and SRESB2 scenarios for nine General Circulation Models in one part of Citarum Watershed

•Scenari

o•Mont

hs•CGCM2

•CSIRO-mk2

•CSM-1.3

•ECHam4

•GFDL-

R15b •MRI2

•CCSR/

NIES2

•DOE-PCM

•HadCM3

•A2 •DJF•-

9.16 •5.09•-

0.23 •-7.3•52.2

1 •10.69 •10.62 •2.18 •3.65

•A2 •JJA•-

8.28 •12.54

•-12.6

3 •-44.92•-

23.83 •5.61 •-5.08 •10.04•-

27.38

•B2 •DJF•-

6.52 •-2.82•-

7.56 •4.02•-

2.05 •7.44 •-0.25 •-2.8 •10.72

•B2 •JJA

•-15.7

2 •12.68

•-10.0

1 •-13.82•-

41.68 •7.85•-

15.74 •19.05•-

14.51

Source: Provided by Xian Fu (2002).

23

Land Use/Cover Change: The CLUE Model (Verlag, 2002)

24

Forest ecosystems: carbon

25

The CO2-Fix Model

26

27

Water Resources: OVER-ALL VIC Model(Link with AS07 Snidvongs et al.)

Liang et al. (1994)

28

River Network in Dynamic Routing Model

Lohmann et al. (1996)

29

DATA For Model

Data for VIC ModelData for VIC Model Forcing Data

Precipitation Maximum

Temperature Minimum

Temperature Wind speed

Template Data Soil property Land cover Elevation

Data for Routing Model Elevation Stream Network Discharge Data

30

31

Human dimension

Impacts and adaptation of local communities Primary and secondary data Field reconnaissance and establishment of

rapport Participatory vulnerability and adaptation

assessment Present vulnerability and adaptation of local

communities to climate variability and extremes

32

33

Human dimension (cont)

combination of participatory techniques such as stakeholder analysis, time line and community mapping

These techniques will be complemented by interviews of households

future impacts of climate change will be assessed based on the local people’s experiences and responses to past climate variability and extremes

34

Capacity Building

The training/workshop on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability November 25 to December 8, 2002

6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam

Small research grants provided

35

Discussion with agriculture extension workers and farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia

STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT

36

NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines

37

DENR Briefing, Philippines

38

CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines

39

Thank you!