1 Richard Wong Rethinking Hong Kong’s Human Resources and Competitiveness: What Hong Kong will be...
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Transcript of 1 Richard Wong Rethinking Hong Kong’s Human Resources and Competitiveness: What Hong Kong will be...
1
Richard Wong
Rethinking Hong Kong’s Human Resources and Competitiveness:
What Hong Kong will be like -- the next two decades
The CEO Manpower Conference 2005, 18 May 2005
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1. The impact of demographic changes on the economy is deep and long.
The border during the early years was unrestricted and there were net movements of population in both directions.
The immigration wave from Mainland China into Hong Kong in 1945-1950 is the most important reason for the post war economic miracle and continues to shape HK’s future.
3
Five-year percentage change of HK population by age group
Age1961-1966
1966-1971
1971-1976
1976-1981
1981-1986
1986-1991
1991-1996
1996-2001
2001-2006
0-4 1.98 -20.49 -1.85 4.07 0.43 -11.36 2.52 -27.00 -0.94
5-9 24.37 -2.70 -19.58 0.56 0.67 -2.17 -5.44 2.61 -17.05
10-14 27.75 18.51 0.94 -16.78 -1.84 -4.24 4.39 -1.80 6.16
15-19 132.80 15.11 20.12 7.62 -20.49 -8.16 6.73 0.07 2.33
20-24 -0.98 70.25 29.81 36.49 -6.13 -19.96 4.55 -1.89 2.16
25-29 -17.27 0.84 70.36 40.19 21.20 -2.56 -9.87 -2.58 -4.27
30-34 -7.13 -14.23 3.82 93.93 21.33 22.34 5.83 -11.92 -0.89
35-39 10.65 -3.30 -9.03 9.93 67.34 22.68 29.84 2.16 -8.92
40-44 15.56 10.25 -2.32 2.65 -1.81 65.33 29.28 24.87 3.02
45-49 14.45 17.35 12.47 7.17 -4.40 -1.47 75.84 20.43 25.17
50-54 33.34 18.60 16.54 16.47 3.23 -7.03 3.57 65.65 21.49
55-59 35.79 31.69 19.67 18.96 14.63 3.86 -1.86 -2.32 67.48
60-64 42.28 31.48 28.32 22.66 15.16 12.70 10.53 -6.66 -2.23
65-69 38.87 32.72 31.08 45.81 14.60 16.24 23.74 5.08 -3.72
70-74 45.80 43.46 26.97 40.03 28.38 12.54 29.00 16.50 9.32
The impact of demographic The impact of demographic changes on the economy is changes on the economy is deep and long.deep and long.
The impact of demographic The impact of demographic changes on the economy is changes on the economy is deep and long.deep and long.
4
Hong Kong’s population is ageing – population by age groups 1921-2031
19311961
1961
1961
1971
1971
1981
1991
1991
2001 20112021
2031
2031
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
With low fertility rate and restricted With low fertility rate and restricted immigration, immigration, Hong Kong’s population is aging quickly.Hong Kong’s population is aging quickly.
With low fertility rate and restricted With low fertility rate and restricted immigration, immigration, Hong Kong’s population is aging quickly.Hong Kong’s population is aging quickly.
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2. Nations are ageing but economically vibrant cities are not, but HK?
The economically vibrant cities generally exhibit stable population distributions by age, caused by immigration of the working age groups and emigration of older age groups.
One expects younger migrants in the fast growing cities eager to try their luck; whereas the older and less competitive people migrate out for less demanding careers and life styles.
Distribution by age group of the seven cities in 1990 and 2000 appears stable, with the majority of the population in the group of 20 to 44.
The population bulge of Hong Kong has shifted approximately by 10 years from 1991 to 2001. There has been mild immigration of prime working age and younger age groups into Hong Kong, but emigration of older groups is minimal.
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Distribution of population by age group (%) – China, US and UK in 1990 and 2000
China U.S. UK
Age 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000
10-14 8.60 9.22 6.79 7.26 6.07 6.62
15-19 10.63 7.90 6.98 7.06 6.54 6.15
20-24 11.12 7.70 7.58 6.71 7.51 6.00
25-29 9.22 9.49 8.68 6.85 7.78 6.65
30-34 7.42 9.92 8.89 7.28 7.12 7.79
35-39 7.64 8.21 8.12 8.01 6.69 7.88
40-44 5.64 6.58 7.09 7.98 7.25 6.94
45-49 4.34 6.72 5.58 7.18 6.15 6.29
50-54 4.04 4.89 4.60 6.19 5.52 6.98
55-59 3.69 3.67 4.24 4.81 5.26 5.53
60-64 3.01 3.25 4.25 3.84 5.20 4.83
National population distribution shifts by 10 years in every 10 years.
Aging is a world-wide phenomenon. Aging is a world-wide phenomenon. Almost all nations are growing old.Almost all nations are growing old. Aging is a world-wide phenomenon. Aging is a world-wide phenomenon. Almost all nations are growing old.Almost all nations are growing old.
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Distribution of population by age group (%) – selected cities in 1990 and 2000
Beijing Shanghai GuangZhou Shenzhen Hong Kong New York London
Age 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000
0-4 7.47 3.26 6.35 2.99 8.71 4.92 5.36 3.31 6.42 4.11 6.96 6.75 6.92 6.67
5-9 7.46 3.87 6.77 3.58 7.86 5.48 4.92 2.90 7.13 5.91 6.25 7.01 6.05 6.30
10-14 5.23 6.46 5.11 5.69 6.28 6.03 4.36 2.29 7.29 6.40 6.15 6.63 5.53 6.07
15-19 7.39 9.10 5.42 7.89 9.88
10.49
19.08
14.72 7.26 6.63 6.43 6.50 5.73 5.81
20-24 9.82 9.28 7.21 8.25
11.14
12.77
26.29
25.00 7.91 6.94 7.87 7.37 8.67 7.40
25-29
11.62 9.37 9.74 8.25
10.56
13.22
13.23
20.23
10.39 7.80 9.50 8.50
10.37 9.65
30-34
10.78 9.71
12.37 8.50 9.06
10.91 7.53
13.48
10.89 8.68 9.20 8.58 8.53 9.70
35-39 9.10
10.42
10.72 9.18 8.15 8.87 5.71 7.67 8.97
10.18 8.09 8.25 6.87 8.84
40-44 5.85 9.12 7.26
10.36 5.81 6.37 3.72 3.55 7.32
10.11 7.16 7.52 6.83 7.12
45-49 4.62 8.06 4.74 9.70 4.18 5.64 2.43 2.45 4.43 8.03 5.67 6.63 5.58 5.82
50-54 5.43 5.09 4.50 6.57 4.41 3.90 2.18 1.46 4.44 6.51 4.90 6.01 5.12 5.73
55-59 5.12 3.73 5.64 4.06 4.24 2.66 1.72 0.91 4.58 3.76 4.37 4.61 4.79 4.50
60-64 3.77 4.12 4.79 3.52 3.43 2.65 1.26 0.82 4.23 3.73 4.44 3.93 4.60 3.94
Among these cities, Hong Kong is the only one Among these cities, Hong Kong is the only one that exhibits ageing in its population. that exhibits ageing in its population. Among these cities, Hong Kong is the only one Among these cities, Hong Kong is the only one that exhibits ageing in its population. that exhibits ageing in its population.
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3. Hong Kong immigrants are dominated by Mainland dependants of Hong Kong men.
The largest group of immigrant population are poorly educated Mainland dependants of Hong Kong men.
Those in the 10-19 age groups are their children and those in the 25-45 age groups are their spouses.
They are systematically less well educated than the native population and those residents born in foreign countries.
9
Percentage of different groups (by place of birth) of Hong Kong’s population with a university degree, aged 15 to 59
Year Born in HKBorn in
Mainland China
Born in other foreign countries
1976 1.9% 2.5% 14.7%
1981 5.0% 4.1% 20.5%
1986 4.2% 3.4% 22.5%
1991 7.5% 5.1% 26.6%
1996 13.5% 8.2% 33.6%
2001 13.3% 7.1% 26.2%
Those born in mainland are the least educated.
10
Percentage of Hong Kong’s population with a university degree, aged 15 to 59 by place of birth
Born in HKBorn in Mainland
ChinaBorn in other foreign
countries
Yearas % of
all degree holders
as % of total
population
as % of all degree
holders
as % of total
population
as % of all degree
holders
as % of total
population
1976 34.9% 0.5% 46.5% 0.7% 18.6% 0.3%
1981 49.9% 1.6% 34.7% 1.1% 14.4% 0.5%
1986 50.4% 1.5% 28.2% 0.8% 21.3% 0.6%
1991 57.1% 2.8% 23.2% 1.1% 18.7% 0.9%
1996 62.0% 5.4% 19.3% 1.7% 17.6% 1.5%
2001 66.8% 5.6% 16.8% 1.4% 15.4% 1.3%
Over time, higher proportion of degree holders are born in HK.
With a “semi-closed” border With a “semi-closed” border with the Mainland, Hong Kong with the Mainland, Hong Kong has to rely on education has to rely on education investment to produce its own investment to produce its own skilled manpowerskilled manpower
With a “semi-closed” border With a “semi-closed” border with the Mainland, Hong Kong with the Mainland, Hong Kong has to rely on education has to rely on education investment to produce its own investment to produce its own skilled manpowerskilled manpower
11
4. The education level of HK residents is lagging behind major fast growing cities
Unable to draw talents from the rest of the nation, Hong Kong’s human capital stock is lagging behind that of other leading economic cities like New York and London.
Fast growing Mainland cities are also catching up rapidly.
12
Percentage of the population aged 15 to 59 with a university degree, among different groups (by place of birth), New York City
YearBorn in New
YorkBorn in all
other US citiesBorn in foreign
countries
1970 12.5% 15.4% 8.0%
1980 19.0% 24.6% 13.2%
1990 26.3% 39.3% 19.3%
2000 29.5% 47.4% 23.1%
Those born in other US cities are the most educated.
With an open border, New York draws on the With an open border, New York draws on the rest of the US for skilled manpower.rest of the US for skilled manpower.With an open border, New York draws on the With an open border, New York draws on the rest of the US for skilled manpower.rest of the US for skilled manpower.
13
Percentage of the population with a university degree, aged 15 to 59 by place of birth, New York
Born in New YorkBorn in all other US
citiesBorn in foreign
countries
Year
as % of all
degree holders
as % of total
population
as % of all
degree holders
as % of total
population
as % of all
degree holders
as % of total
population
1970 64.4% 7.9% 23.3% 2.8% 12.3% 1.5%
1980 64.4% 11.8% 18.6% 3.4% 17.1% 3.1%
1990 62.7% 16.2% 16.6% 4.3% 20.7% 5.3%
2000 55.2% 15.9% 15.4% 4.4% 29.4% 8.5%
Over time, higher proportion of degree holders are foreign born.
New York draws on the rest New York draws on the rest of the world for skilled of the world for skilled manpower.manpower.
New York draws on the rest New York draws on the rest of the world for skilled of the world for skilled manpower.manpower.
14
Percentage of Population with Educational level as degree holders, 1990 vs 2000
20009.6%
20005.4%
20003.3%
20004.3%
200030.2%
200025.6%
200022.9%
200014.8%
19909.5%
199016.8%
199020.3%
199026.0%
19915.4%
19901.6%
19902.9%
19902.2%
19903.5%
19906.1%
20019.2%
19993.8%
Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou China HK NY(aged25+)
US (aged25+)
London-working age
pop
UK-workingage pop
Plot-ALLCities.xlsChart-Degree+CompareALL
21%
Hong Kong’s human Hong Kong’s human capital stock capital stock is lagging far is lagging far behind behind that of other that of other leading economic leading economic centers. centers.
Hong Kong’s human Hong Kong’s human capital stock capital stock is lagging far is lagging far behind behind that of other that of other leading economic leading economic centers. centers.
15
Percentage of Population with Educational level as degree holders, 1990 vs 2000
20009.6%
20005.4%
20003.3%
20004.3%
200030.2%
200025.6%
200022.9%
200014.8%
19909.5%
199016.8%
199020.3%
199026.0%
19915.4%
19901.6%
19902.9%
19902.2%
19903.5%
19906.1%
20019.2%
19993.8%
Beijing Shanghai Shenzhen Guangzhou China HK NY(aged25+)
US (aged25+)
London-working age
pop
UK-workingage pop
Plot-ALLCities.xlsChart-Degree+CompareALL
Population in cities are more educated than the national level.
With an open border, With an open border, other cities draw on the other cities draw on the rest of the nations for rest of the nations for skilled manpower.skilled manpower.
With an open border, With an open border, other cities draw on the other cities draw on the rest of the nations for rest of the nations for skilled manpower.skilled manpower.
16
5. In 2031, the best educated in HK are going to be those in the oldest age group.
Without any change in the current level of investment in education and maintaining the current pattern and volume of immigration our best educated population will be among the most elderly.
In 2031, the projected HK population’s education level will still be far behind that in New York City today.
17
Percentage of degree holders out of total population in Hong Kong, 1976 to 2001 and projection into 2031
1976
1981
1996
2001
2006
2011
2011
2016
2016
2021
20212026
2031
2031
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
age=15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Paste-Project2031-u-grad.xlsChart%TotPop76-2031degree+
An aging population of talents An aging population of talents ahead. ahead. An aging population of talents An aging population of talents ahead. ahead.
18
Projected percentage of HK population aged 15 to 64 with different levels of education
Level 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
no schooling or kindergarten and
above100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
primary and secondary and above
98.2 97.4 97.3 97.0 96.4 95.9
post-secondary and above
29.9 32.8 36.3 39.5 41.5 42.1
University and above 13.6 15.5 17.7 19.8 21.0 21.1
Still far from 30.2% of today’s New York City.
Investment in education will Investment in education will produce additional skilled produce additional skilled manpower but not enough.manpower but not enough.
Investment in education will Investment in education will produce additional skilled produce additional skilled manpower but not enough.manpower but not enough.
19
6. Hong Kong must remain a vibrant space of flow.
Maximum circulation of a diverse range of talents through the territory is crucial.
Hong Kong’s population flow pales in comparison with New York City.
20
Distribution of New York and HK population by place of birth in 1990 and
2000.
NYC
NYC
born
as % of
total
US born
but not
NYC
as % of
total
Foreign
born
as % of
total Total
1990 9,397,600 65.7% 1,487,600 10.4% 3,418,800 23.9%14,304,00
0
2000 9,173,400 61.0% 1,347,000 9.0% 4,527,400 30.1%15,047,80
0
HK
HK
born
as % of
total
China born
but not HK
as % of
total
Foreign
born
as % of
total Total
1991 3,255,280 59.8% 1,932,900 35.5% 252,220 4.6% 5,440,400
2001 3,941,960 59.3% 2,277,700 34.2% 432,980 6.5% 6,652,640