1

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings

February 21, 2006

Presented by

Dan Nataf, Ph.DDirector, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College101 College Parkway

Arnold, MD 21012(410) 777-2733

(410) 777-4733 fax

ddnataf@aacc.edu

www2.aacc.edu/csli

2

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings The Center for the Study of Local Issues

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends and Findings The Center for the Study of Local Issues

• CSLI conducts public interest surveys each semester (since 1978)

• Respondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers combined with computer generated numbers

• Typical sample size: 300-525 respondents; students used as interviewers

• Each survey includes demographic and attitude/behavior questions

• Surveys themes include: – Growth/Development– Transportation– Economic conditions– Education– Tax and spending preferences– Policy preferences

• Visit CSLI’s web site for previous surveys (www2.aacc.edu/csli)

3

Public Opinion in

Anne Arundel County: Recent

Trends and Findings

The Center for the Study

of Local Issues: Web Site

- Homepage

4

Public Opinion in

Anne Arundel County: Recent

Trends and Findings

The Center for the Study

of Local Issues: Web Site- Search

page

5

• Two Questions about Challenges for the next Decade– Main Economic Challenge– Main Environmental Challenge

• Are local authorities up to the challenges?

• Is the public confident in the ability of local authorities to respond to a disaster…?

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Focus on the Future: Main Challenges

6

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings

Main Economic Challenge for the Next Decade

Managing growth/development 31%

Providing affordable housing 19Providing proper skills/education for workers

19

Infrastructure, roads 10 Providing enough jobs 9Govt budget probs/services 3Gas prices 2Taxes 2Other 5

7

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings

Main Environmental Challenge for the Next Decade

Water pollution in Bay and streams 57%

Air pollution 8Maintaining open/green areas 8

Enforcing environmental laws 4

Other (mostly managing growth) 14

No answer 9

8

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Confidence in/perceived preparedness of local authorities – meet

challenges or terrorist strike/natural disaster

Preparedness/

Confidence

Econ. Environ. Terror Disaster

Very 8 7 11 11

Somewhat 45 38 42 49

Not very 41 50 44 36

No answer 7 6 3 4

9

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends How Prepared are Local Authorities in Event of Terrorist Strike -

Trend

3022 24 27

44

1513 1511

Very prepared

544847

Somewhat prepared

Not very prepared

37

115 8

Unsure 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

10

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Most Important Issues Facing AA County Residents –

1995-2005 - Trends for Major Issues Growth Rises in Importance, Crime Drops

Graph 1: Most Important Issue - Trends

2628

26

19

12

19 20

1315

1013

97 6

9 8

18 18

24

31

26

31

2730

2225

21

26

18

3128

Crime 31%

8Crime

36%Growth/Transp

12

Education

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

11

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Most Important Issues –

Economy, Environment NOT among Top Issues

Graph 1: Most Important Issue - Trends

1

Terrorism19%

14%Taxes

10

6

10

7

Economy 14%

9%

Environment

6

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Sp ‘99

Fa '99

Sp ‘00

Fa ‘00

Sp ‘01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Terrorism Taxes Economy Environment

12

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends Perception of Issues in 2010

Negative expectations for all major issues (except economy)

B

etter

About the same

Worse

Fall 2004 Better-Worse

Unsure

No answer

The overall quality of life in the County 33 43 20 13 3 1

Spiritual or religious life 27 47 15 12 7 4 Economic conditions 33 40 23 10 3 1

Family life 27 45 20 7 5 2 General responsiveness of County

government to citizens’ needs 23 47 20 3 8 1

Ethics in local government 20 44 26 -6 9 2 Public schools 28 28 36 -8 7 1

Health care 24 32 36 -12 8 1 Growth and development 30 20 46 -16 3 1

Crime 11 42 42 -31 4 1 Water and air quality 17 32 49 -32 2 1

Local taxes 5 26 64 -59 5 1 Traffic congestion 3 5 92 -89 0 0

13

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent TrendsEconomic Conditions in the County Spring 2002-Fall 2005

AA County economy outperforms nation

Economic Conditions: Local and National

3826 27 22

34 34 31 28

717474

625655

74 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

Spring 2002

Fall 2002

Spring 2003

Fall 2003

Spring2004

Fall2004

Spring2005

Fall2005

AACounty -Exc+Good

Nation -Exc+Good

14

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Trends County’s Direction: Right or Wrong?

Positive feelings affected by perceptions of the economy

Graph 2: County - Right or Wrong Direction

6254 51

57Right

Wrong, 34%

Unsure

42Econ - Poor+Fair

05

10152025303540455055606570

15

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: How has Public Accommodated Higher Cost?

Downsizing, Changing Habits

Possible effects Affected Not affected

No answer

Decreased your amount of driving 50 50 1

Made you reduce entertainment spending 45 54 1

Made you consider buying a more fuel efficient car 42 57 2

Made you use a more fuel efficient vehicle than the one you would normally

38 59 3

Increased your use of bicycles or walking 23 74 3

Made you change your vacation plans last summer 22 77 1

Increased your use of car-pools 21 76 3

Increased your use of public transportation 11 86 3

Made you consider moving closer to your work 11 85 4

16

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: How does Public Perceive Causes?

Producers’ Profits and Wrong Policies to Blame

Factor Very important

Somewhat important

Not very important

No Ans

High profits by oil companies 68 19 12 1

High profits by oil exporting countries 60 24 13 3

Increased global demand for oil 53 25 19 2

The lack of policies encouraging the use of renewable energy and fuel efficient cars

51 28 18 4

Damage to oil production facilities in areas along the Gulf coast

47 30 19 5

Excessive regulation preventing drilling or refining within the United States

39 25 29 7

17

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Gas Prices: How does Public Perceive Solutions?

Renewal Energy, Hybrids and Transit Expansion Preferred

Policy Support Oppose NA

Tax incentives for the use of wind or solar power 78 16 6

Tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid/highly fuel efficient vehicles

74 23 3

Increasing bus and light rail service, even if it requires more subsidies from state government

70 26 4

Making it easier to develop nuclear power plants with the state of Maryland

43 47 10

Higher taxes on gasoline to encourage use of more fuel efficient vehicles

20 76 4

18

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Support for Various State and Local Policies

Yes to Another Bridge, Pollution Fee and Stem Cell Research

Policy Support Oppose No answer

An annual $60 fee dedicated only to correcting the impacts of storm water erosion and pollution in county streams and rivers

56 38 6

Putting a large horse training and show facility in the Gambrills/Crownsville area

44 43 13

Building a third bridge span across the Chesapeake Bay

63 31 5

Lengthening the school day in county schools, at a cost of about $30 million

29 60 11

State funding for embryonic stem cell research 58 34 8

19

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval Slight Plurality Disapproves

Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

Approve 45% Disapprove 48% Unsure 7%Gallup (11-15-05) Approve 37% Disapprove 60% Unsure 3%

Those with ‘friend or family member currently serving in the military in Iraq or Afghanistan’ (39% of sample): Approve 48% Disapprove 45% Unsure 6% Without: Approve 42% Disapprove 51% Unsure 6%

Bush Job Approval

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Approve %

Disapprove %

No opinion %

9/11 Iraq Invasion

Saddam

20

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval

Partisanship Rules!

Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? Approve: Democrats 20% Republicans 77% Independents: 40%

21

Public Opinion, Terrorism, Confidence - National

Bush - % approving handling of war in Iraq

Bush - Approve handling of Iraq

65

53 54

46 4744

48

4245

50

45 44

35

41

3436

33

39

29

3936

40

47 4649

45

51 50

43

4750 51

57

61 6062

58

5 68

6 6 7 7 7 7 75

8 7 86 5

85 5 4 5 5

3

Approve, 58%

30

44

5351

6965

54

Disapprove, 39%42

26

Unsure, 7%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

22

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval

Best Policies by Party Registration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Best Policy by Party

DemocratRepublicanIndependent

23

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings President Bush’s Job Approval

Worst Policies by Party Registration

80

43

70

0

5

10

15

20

25

Worst Policy by Party

DemocratRepublicanIndependent

24

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Ideology

Party by Ideology

40 0 0

1817

31

4

18

9

32

1915

25

42

4848

68

5053

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Overall Democrat Republican Independent None

None

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

25

Party by Age

9 9

6 5

2930

25

32 32

14

3634

39

43

25

22

13 14

50

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Overall Democrat Republican Independent None

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Age

26

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Education

Party by Education

3 32

32

17

20

16

3

31 31

28

33

25 2426

25

20

2422

24

15

HS, 24

Some college, 33

Postgraduate, 43

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Overall Democrat Republican Independent None

no HS

HS

Some college

4 year degree

Postgraduate

27

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Income

Party by Income

$30-$50, 26

$50-$75, 28

$50-$75, 30

$75-$100, 26

$75-$100, 32

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Overall Democrat Republican Independent None

Less than $30k

$30-$50

$50-$75

$75-$100

$100-$150

Over $150

28

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Race

Party by Race

6

20

25 5

3 4

African-American, 13

White, 87White, 90White, 93White, 81White, 85

Other, 8

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

Overall Democrat Republican Independent None

African-American

White

Hispanic/Latino

Asian

Other

29

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Religion

Party by Religion

6 6

2

0

1514 14

23

13

9

5

16

30

28

33

24

76

5

109

No answer, 9

1819

Other Protestant, 34

Catholic, 30

Jewish, 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Overall Democrat Republican Independent None

No answer

Non-practicing

Evangelical

Other Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

Other

30

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: Recent Findings Party by Gender

Gender + Party

49

31

56

68

5551

69

44

32

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Overall Dems Reps Indep. No Party

Men

Women