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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

November 7, 2005

Presented by

Dan Nataf, Ph.DDirector, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College101 College Parkway

Arnold, MD 21012(410) 777-2733

(410) 777-4733 fax

ddnataf@aacc.edu

www2.aacc.edu/csli

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Overview: The Center for the Study of Local Issues

• CSLI mission:– Enhance student familiarity with applied social science research methods;– provide faculty professional development opportunities; – assist community with research needs; provide research/environmental

scanning for AACC

• Signature product: Semi-annual survey performed each semester (since 1978)

• Project clients: Maryland State Comptroller; Maryland Department of Natural Resources; Anne Arundel County Police Department; AAC Public Schools; Annapolis and Anne Arundel Chamber of Commerce; 1st Night Annapolis

• AACC Projects: International Education Survey of AACC Campus Community; Survey of Part-time Faculty; Focus Groups Evaluating Employee Evaluation Form

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Overview of The Center for the Study of Local Issues

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

Overview: Semi-annual Survey

• Typical sample size: 300-525 respondents

• Students used as interviewers

• Each survey includes demographic and attitude/behavior questions

• Surveys themes include: Transportation; Economic Development; Education, Tax and Spending Preferences; Anne Arundel County’s Attractive Qualities; Growth/Development; Policy Preferences

• Visit CSLI’s web site for previous surveys (www2.aacc.edu/csli)

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Semi-annual Surveys - Overview

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Surveys: Student Involvement - Recruitment

Student Involvement:1. As recruited student

interviewers• Recruited by faculty

• Faculty pass out ‘signup form’ which provides option of sending student info via mail/hand delivery or sending by email

• Usually offered extra credit for one evening of work

• Best if repeated several times

• Included in syllabus

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement – Recruited as Interviewers

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement - Training

Student Involvement:2. Student interviewers - training

• Introduced to purpose of survey process• Review telephone and marking techniques• Review methods for encouraging respondents

to participate in survey• Review questionnaire contents • Highlight why questions are relevant to public

policy • Student (and public) access to results

emphasized

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement - Training

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement – Post Survey Learning

Student Involvement:3. Students – post survey learning

• Required to write summary of experience, relate to course material

• Have review of results in classroom, relate to course• Use data sets in statistical exercises• Provide other exercises using findings – historical

analogies, contrasts between assumptions and actual public opinions

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement – Post Survey Learning

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement – Post Survey Learning

Student Involvement:Students survey – post survey learningHow would you rate the overall experience from the

perspective of leaning about surveys:Excellent 33%, Good 59%, Average 7%, Poor 0%

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Student Involvement – Post Survey Learning

YES NO 1.1 My instructor offered extra credit to participate in the CSLI survey 98 2 1.2 My instructor included information about the CSLI survey on the syllabus for the class

20 80

1.3 My instructor mentioned this participation opportunity only once or several times 24 76 1.4 My instructor plans on having students report in some fashion about their participation in the survey

14 86

1.5 My instructor plans to refer to this participation experience in some manner as part of learning for the class

58 42

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• Summary of most recent survey at www2.aacc.edu/csli

• Focus today: – Economy– Confidence in Government – Gas Prices/policies – Bush’s Job Approval/policies

• Review findings, probe income and party as independent variables

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Today’s Agenda

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• Economy– How are economic conditions perceived at this

time - saliency and evaluation

– What is the major economic challenge for the next decade

– Income effects on economic perceptions

Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Economic Conditions – Now/Future

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Economy has low saliency - NOT among Top Issues

Graph 1: Most Important Issue

4 35

3

14

812

7 7

TerrorismTaxes

Economy, 8

Environment

Econ-Fair/poor

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sp ‘9

9

Fa '9

9

Sp ‘0

0

Fa ‘0

0

Sp ‘0

1

Fa '0

1

Sp '02

Fa '0

2

Sp '03

Fa '0

3

Sp '04

Fa '0

4

Sp '05

Fa '0

5

Terrorism Taxes Economy Environment Econ Conds

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Most Important Issues Facing AA County Residents –

1995-2005 - Trends for Major Issues Growth Rises in Importance, Crime Drops

Graph 1: Most Important Issue - Trends

26

31

23

2825 26

19

12

19 20

1315

1013

97 6

9 8 8

18 18

25 24

3128

26

31

2730 30

2522

25

21

26

18

3128

36

Crime, 8

Growth/Transp

Education

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Crime Growth/Transportation

Education Linear (Growth/Transportation)

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Economic Conditions in the County Spring 2002-Fall 2005

Evaluation: AA County economy outperforms nation

Economic Conditions - Excellent, good, fair or poor?

3826 27 22

34 34 31 28

717474

625655

74 76

0

20

40

60

80

100

Spring 2002

Fall 2002

Spring 2003

Fall 2003

Spring2004

Fall2004

Spring2005

Fall2005

AACounty -Exc+Good

Nation -Exc+Good

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation County’s Direction: Right or Wrong?

Positive feelings affected by perceptions of the economy

Graph 2: County - Right or Wrong Direction

Right

Wrong

Unsure

Econ - Poor+Fair

05

10152025303540455055606570

Right

Wrong

Unsure

Econ - Poor+Fair

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Perception of Issues in 2010

Negative expectations for all major issues (except economy)

B

etter

About the same

Worse

Fall 2004 Better-Worse

Un

sure

No answer

The overall quality of life in the County 33 43 20 13 3 1

Spiritual or religious life 27 47 15 12 7 4

Economic conditions 33 40 23 10 3 1

Family life 27 45 20 7 5 2 General responsiveness of County

government to citizens’ needs 23 47 20 3 8 1

Ethics in local government 20 44 26 -6 9 2 Public schools 28 28 36 -8 7 1

Health care 24 32 36 -12 8 1 Growth and development 30 20 46 -16 3 1

Crime 11 42 42 -31 4 1 Water and air quality 17 32 49 -32 2 1

Local taxes 5 26 64 -59 5 1 Traffic congestion 3 5 92 -89 0 0

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

Main Economic Challenge for the Next Decade

Managing growth/development 27%

Providing affordable housing 17Providing proper skills/education for workers

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Providing enough jobs 8

Infrastructure, roads 3

Other 25No answer 8

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

Economic Perception Varies by Income Higher income=more positive perception

Income by Economic Conditions

0-$50k

0-$50k

$50-100k

Over $100k

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Excellent Good Only Fair Poor

0-$50k

$50-100k

Over $100k

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

Higher Income = Greater Concern for Managing Growth than Job Creation

Economic Challenge by Income

0-$50k

$50-100k

Over $100

Over $100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jobs managing growth Education Affordable housing

0-$50k

$50-100k

Over $100

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

Higher Income = Does Education Make a Difference?

Income by Education

0-$50k

0-$50k

$50-100k

Over $100

Over $100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Less than a highschool diploma

a high schooldiploma

some college or atwo-yr degree

completed collegewith a bachelor's

degree

post graduatework

0-$50k

$50-100k

Over $100

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation

Main Challenges for the Next Decade – Confidence that Local Govt. able to Effectively Deal with them

Confidence level Economic Environmental

Very confident 8 7

Somewhat 45 38

Not very 41 50

No answer 7 6

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Gas Prices: How has Public Accommodated Higher Cost?

Downsizing, Changing Habits

Possible effects Affected Not affected

No answer

Decreased your amount of driving 50 50 1

Made you reduce entertainment spending 45 54 1

Made you consider buying a more fuel efficient car 42 57 2

Made you use a more fuel efficient vehicle than the one you would normally

38 59 3

Increased your use of bicycles or walking 23 74 3

Made you change your vacation plans last summer 22 77 1

Increased your use of car-pools 21 76 3

Increased your use of public transportation 11 86 3

Made you consider moving closer to your work 11 85 4

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Gas Prices: How does Public Perceive Causes?

Producers’ Profits and Wrong Policies to Blame

Factor Very important

Somewhat important

Not very important

No answer

High profits by oil companies 68 19 12 1

High profits by oil exporting countries 60 24 13 3

Increased global demand for oil 53 25 19 2

The lack of policies encouraging the use of renewable energy and fuel efficient cars

51 28 18 4

Damage to oil production facilities in areas along the Gulf coast

47 30 19 5

Excessive regulation preventing drilling or refining within the United States

39 25 29 7

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Gas Prices: How does Public Perceive Solutions?

Renewal Energy, Hybrids and Transit Expansion Preferred

Policy Support Oppose NA

Tax incentives for the use of wind or solar power 78 16 6

Tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid/highly fuel efficient vehicles

74 23 3

Increasing bus and light rail service, even if it requires more subsidies from state government

70 26 4

Making it easier to develop nuclear power plants with the state of Maryland

43 47 10

Higher taxes on gasoline to encourage use of more fuel efficient vehicles

20 76 4

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Gas Prices: How does income affect perceptions?

Seriousness of price rise, decrease driving, use transit, no vacation

Policy 0-$50k $50-$100

Over $100K

All Stat.Sig.

% saying gas prices are ‘very serious’ concern

62 62 46 58 .1

Decreased entertainment spending 46 53 35 47 .01

Decreased driving 57 52 40 50 .08

Use transit more 16 8 6 9 .06

Changed vacation plans 28 24 20 24 .59

Increase subsidies to transit 70 71 72 71 .9

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Support for Various State and Local Policies

Party by Gas Policies

Policy Dem Rep Indep All Stat.

Sig.

Making it easier to develop nuclear power plants in Maryland

34 52 40 42 .03

% saying gas prices are ‘very serious’ concern

59 52 45 54 .25

Decreased entertainment spending 48 40 43 44 .06

Decreased driving 50 53 48 51 .58

Use transit more 14 5 10 10 .15

Changed vacation plans 25 23 18 23 .45

Increase subsidies to transit 78 67 73 72 .08

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation Support for Various State and Local Policies

Party by State and Local Policies

Policy/Party Dem Rep Indep All Stat.

Sig.

Making it easier to develop nuclear power plants in Maryland

34 52 40 42 .03

An annual $60 fee dedicated to correcting the impacts of storm water erosion and pollution in county streams and rivers

56 52 58 56 .43

Putting a large horse training and show facility in the Gambrills/ Crownsville area

39 46 43 43 .46

Building a third bridge span across the Chesapeake Bay

58 68 62 62 .10

Lengthening the school day in county schools, at a cost of about $30 million

32 25 35 28 .2

State funding for embryonic stem cell research

68 49 55 58 .02

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation President Bush’s Job Approval Slight Plurality Disapproves

Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? Approve 45% Disapprove 48% NA 7%

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation President Bush’s Job Approval

Partisanship Rules!

Do you approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President? Approve: Democrats 20% Republicans 77% Independents: 40%

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation President Bush’s Job Approval

Best and Worst Policies

Policy % Best % Worst Best-Worst

War on Terrorism, Reaction to 9-11 25 1 +24

Iraq 24 69 -45

Other 14 4 +14

Tax, Economic Policy 10 3 +7

Supreme Court Nominations 8 3 +5

Homeland Security 7 0 +7

Education Policy 4 2 +2

Afghanistan 3 0 +3

Social Security 3 1 +2

Abortion or Stem Cell 2 3 -1

Gas Prices 0 2 -2

Environment Policy 0 1 -1

Katrina Response 0 2 -2

Spending, Deficits 0 1 -1

Immigration 0 3 -3

Staff Appointments 0 2 -2

No answer 0 7 -7

Total 100 100

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation President Bush’s Job Approval

Best Policies by Party Registration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Best Policy by Party

DemocratRepublicanIndependent

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Public Opinion in Anne Arundel County: CSLI Campus Presentation President Bush’s Job Approval

Worst Policies by Party Registration

80

43

70

0

5

10

15

20

25

Worst Policy by Party

DemocratRepublicanIndependent