1

Proposition 8

April 2008: Nearly 1.1 million signatures delivered to CA Secretary of State

May 15, 2008: CA Supreme Court issues In Re Marriage Cases decision

June 2, 2008: Proposition 8 certified for November 4, 2008 ballot

June 15, 2008: same-sex couples start marrying in California

2

Proposition 8: The Media War August 2008: Let California Ring

airs “Tripping Bride” ad constantly during Beijing Olympics TV coverage

September 2008: Let California Ring print and radio ads run in ethnic media outlets until the end of the month

September 22 2008: First NO ON 8 ad airs: “Don’t Eliminate Marriage For Anyone”

September 29 2008: First YES on 8 ad airs “Whether You Like It Or Not”

October 7 2008: Yes on 8 airs “Princes” ad

October 22 2008: No on 8 airs response to “Princes” ad

October 23 2008: Yes on 8 responds with “Truth”

October 30 2008: No on 8 ends the campaign with “Divisive” and “Discrimination”

3

Proposition 8 Aftermath

Certified Election Results on Proposition 8 Statewide

YES 7,001,084 (52.30%) NO 6,401,482 (47.70%) Margin: 599,602 (4.6%) Voter Turnout: 13,743,177 out of 17,304,091

(79.42%) Los Angeles County

YES 1,624,672 (50.04%) NO 1,622,287 (49.96%) Margin: 2,385 Turnout: 3,246,959 out of 4,111,642 (79%)

4

Black vs. Gay: Proposition 8 Aftermath

CNN Exit Poll Released showed that 70% of African Americans voted in favor of Proposition 8 (later revised down to 57-58% by an academic analysis)

Media narrative became Blacks versus Gays Between Nov. 4-Nov 18 I appeared in

The Los Angeles Times Good Morning America (Sunday) KABC-TV Local radio stations (KCRW-FM, KPFK-FM)

5

Why Gay is NOT ‘the new Black’

1. There are people who are both Black and Gay2. Although both communities have experienced

identity-based discrimination, slavery (and its incidents) is simply not equivalent to what LGBT have experienced

3. The phrase and the comparison trivializes both the experience of Black people and LGBT people in this country

4. To paraphrase Dan Savage, the gay rights movement is a civil rights movement but the movement for racial equality is the Civil Rights Movement.

6

The Future!? Blogger Nate Silver

(fivethirtyeight.com) has looked at the 30 states that have voted to amend their constitution and done a regression analysis which shows that the most important factors are1. The year in which the

amendment was voted upon;

2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;

3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

When extrapolated into the future it shows the year in which a similar vote to ban gay marriage would fail in each state