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Transcript of 1 Proposed California Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline Regulations December 9, 1999 California...
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Proposed California Phase 3 Proposed California Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline RegulationsReformulated Gasoline Regulations
December 9, 1999December 9, 1999
California Environmental Protection AgencyCalifornia Environmental Protection Agency
Air Resources BoardAir Resources Board
22
OverviewOverview
BackgroundBackground Staff proposal with Staff proposal with
proposed changesproposed changes EffectsEffects Future activities Future activities Staff recommendationStaff recommendation
33
YearYearAdoptedAdopted Major Changes MadeMajor Changes Made
19711971 Reid Vapor PressureReid Vapor Pressure19751975 SulfurSulfur19761976 LeadLead19901990 Phase 1 RFGPhase 1 RFG - Reid Vapor Pressure- Reid Vapor Pressure - Lead Phase-Out- Lead Phase-Out - Deposit Control Additives- Deposit Control Additives19911991 Phase 2 RFGPhase 2 RFG
- 8 properties, including RVP- 8 properties, including RVP Wintertime OxygenatesWintertime Oxygenates19941994 Phase 2 RFG Predictive ModelPhase 2 RFG Predictive Model19981998 Remove winter oxygen requirement where not neededRemove winter oxygen requirement where not needed
California’s Gasoline ProgramsCalifornia’s Gasoline Programs
44
Overview of CaRFG2 ProgramOverview of CaRFG2 Program
Implemented in Spring 1996Implemented in Spring 1996 Limits on the following parameters:Limits on the following parameters:
RVP*RVP* SulfurSulfurT50T50 BenzeneBenzeneT90T90 Aromatic HydrocarbonsAromatic HydrocarbonsOlefinsOlefins Oxygen ContentOxygen Content
* Only the summer RVP limit is fixed, at 7.0 psi * Only the summer RVP limit is fixed, at 7.0 psi
55
Specifications for CaRFG2 Specifications for CaRFG2 ProgramProgram
RVP, psiRVP, psi 7.87.8 7.07.0 7.07.0Sulfur, ppmwSulfur, ppmw 150150 4040 8080Aromatic HC, vol%Aromatic HC, vol% 3232 2525 3030Benzene, vol%Benzene, vol% 2.02.0 1.01.0 1.21.2Olefins, vol%Olefins, vol% 9.99.9 6.06.0 10.010.0Oxygen, wt%Oxygen, wt% 00 1.8-2.21.8-2.2 1.8*-3.51.8*-3.5T90, deg FT90, deg F 330330 300300 330330T50, deg FT50, deg F 220220 210210 220220
Flat LimitFlat LimitStandardStandard
Cap for AllCap for AllGasolineGasoline
* Wintertime only* Wintertime only** Refinery cap = 310 deg F** Refinery cap = 310 deg F
Typical BeforeTypical BeforeCaRFG2CaRFG2
66
Predictive ModelPredictive Model
Used for virtually all gasoline producedUsed for virtually all gasoline produced Predicts how exhaust emissions change when fuel Predicts how exhaust emissions change when fuel
properties change from flat specificationsproperties change from flat specifications Provides alternative means of complianceProvides alternative means of compliance Increases gasoline producer’s flexibilityIncreases gasoline producer’s flexibility Reduces compliance costs / improves production Reduces compliance costs / improves production
capabilitycapability
77
Additional Emission BenefitsAdditional Emission Benefits1998 In-Use Fuel Compared to CaRFG2 Specifications1998 In-Use Fuel Compared to CaRFG2 Specifications
2005 (tpd)2005 (tpd)
PollutantPollutant Additional Additional BenefitsBenefits
RealizedRealized
Total Hydrocarbons (HC)Total Hydrocarbons (HC) 31 tpd31 tpd
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 32 tpd32 tpd
ToxicsToxics 12%12%
* Based on on-road exhaust and evaporative emissions* Based on on-road exhaust and evaporative emissions
88
Cost of CaRFG2Cost of CaRFG2
ARB staff originally estimated CaRFG2 would ARB staff originally estimated CaRFG2 would add 5 to 15 cents per gallon to gasoline production add 5 to 15 cents per gallon to gasoline production costscosts
In 1996, California Energy Commission estimated In 1996, California Energy Commission estimated CaRFG2 accounted for 5-8 cents per gallon CaRFG2 accounted for 5-8 cents per gallon increase in price of California gasolineincrease in price of California gasoline
November 1999, Attorney General assessment November 1999, Attorney General assessment – Wholesale prices for CARB gasoline has averaged Wholesale prices for CARB gasoline has averaged
about 4 cents greater than conventional gasolineabout 4 cents greater than conventional gasoline
99
History of Oxygenate UseHistory of Oxygenate Use
Used since late 1970’s to increase octaneUsed since late 1970’s to increase octane Clean Air Act required oxygen in winter gasoline Clean Air Act required oxygen in winter gasoline
starting in 1992 in CO non-attainment areasstarting in 1992 in CO non-attainment areas Year-round in federal RFG areas starting in 1995 Year-round in federal RFG areas starting in 1995
(30% of gasoline nationwide)(30% of gasoline nationwide) MTBE refiner’s primary choiceMTBE refiner’s primary choice
1010
Oxygen RequirementsOxygen Requirementsin Californiain California
California’s rules are flexibleCalifornia’s rules are flexible Emissions benefits can be met without oxygen Emissions benefits can be met without oxygen
except in winter in the South Coast area to reduce except in winter in the South Coast area to reduce carbon monoxidecarbon monoxide
Federal minimum oxygen content applies to Federal Federal minimum oxygen content applies to Federal RFG areas and is a year-round requirementRFG areas and is a year-round requirement
1111
Federal Minimum Oxygen Federal Minimum Oxygen Requirement Affects Most of StateRequirement Affects Most of State
Current Federal RFG areas affect about 70% of gasoline soldFederal RFG area
in 2000 (~10% of gasoline)
Federal RFG Areas1991 - San Diego
South Coast Region Ventura1995 - Sacramento Region2000 - San Joaquin Valley
San Diego
San JoaquinValley
South Coast
Ventura
SacramentoRegion
1212
Governor’s Executive OrderGovernor’s Executive Order
On March 25, 1999 Governor Davis issued On March 25, 1999 Governor Davis issued Executive Order D-5-99 for the phase-out of MTBE Executive Order D-5-99 for the phase-out of MTBE from California gasoline by earliest practical date from California gasoline by earliest practical date but not later than December 31, 2002but not later than December 31, 2002
Directs ARB to adopt CaRFG regulations to Directs ARB to adopt CaRFG regulations to provide additional flexibility in removing oxygen provide additional flexibility in removing oxygen while preserving benefitswhile preserving benefits
Directs ARB to request waiver from Federal Directs ARB to request waiver from Federal Oxygen Requirement from U.S. EPAOxygen Requirement from U.S. EPA
1313
Other Key Directives from Executive Other Key Directives from Executive Order D-5-99Order D-5-99
ARB and the SWRCB to conduct analysis of ARB and the SWRCB to conduct analysis of environmental fate and transport of ethanolenvironmental fate and transport of ethanol
OEHHA to prepare an analysis of the health risks OEHHA to prepare an analysis of the health risks associated with the use of ethanolassociated with the use of ethanol
CEC to evaluate steps to foster waste-based or other CEC to evaluate steps to foster waste-based or other biomass ethanol development in California if ethanol biomass ethanol development in California if ethanol acceptable substitute for MTBEacceptable substitute for MTBE
1414
New State LegislationNew State Legislation
Senate Bill 989 (Sher)Senate Bill 989 (Sher)– Ensure the CaRFG3 regulations maintain or improve Ensure the CaRFG3 regulations maintain or improve
upon emissions and air quality benefits achieved by upon emissions and air quality benefits achieved by CaRFG2 and provide additional flexibility to reduce or CaRFG2 and provide additional flexibility to reduce or remove oxygen from motor vehicle fuelremove oxygen from motor vehicle fuel
Senate Bill 529 (Bowen)Senate Bill 529 (Bowen)– Establishes a mechanism for conducting multi-media Establishes a mechanism for conducting multi-media
review of revisions to ARB’s CaRFG standardsreview of revisions to ARB’s CaRFG standards
Governor’s Environmental Policy Council review Governor’s Environmental Policy Council review January 18, 2000January 18, 2000
1515
Staff ProposalStaff ProposalStaff ProposalStaff Proposal
1616
Objective of Today’s CaRFG3 ProposalObjective of Today’s CaRFG3 Proposal
Responsive to the Governor’s Executive OrderResponsive to the Governor’s Executive Order Remove MTBE from California gasolineRemove MTBE from California gasoline Preserve current emission benefitsPreserve current emission benefits Enable the use of ethanol without sacrificing Enable the use of ethanol without sacrificing
emissions benefitsemissions benefits Add flexibility to minimize loss in gasoline Add flexibility to minimize loss in gasoline
production due to removal of MTBEproduction due to removal of MTBE Accommodate need for imports on routine basisAccommodate need for imports on routine basis
1717
External ProcessExternal Process Phase 3 gasoline (CaRFG3)Phase 3 gasoline (CaRFG3)
– Met with individual stakeholdersMet with individual stakeholders– Held 9 public workshopsHeld 9 public workshops– Work with California Energy CommissionWork with California Energy Commission
Advised by consultants from the University of CaliforniaAdvised by consultants from the University of California– Dr. Robert Sawyer, UC BerkeleyDr. Robert Sawyer, UC Berkeley– Dr. David Rocke, UC DavisDr. David Rocke, UC Davis
Peer ReviewPeer Review– Dr. Catherine Koshland, UC BerkeleyDr. Catherine Koshland, UC Berkeley– Dr. Donald Lucas, UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Dr. Donald Lucas, UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National
LaboratoryLaboratory– Dr. Larry Caretto, CSU Northridge, Dean of College of EngineeringDr. Larry Caretto, CSU Northridge, Dean of College of Engineering
1818
Overview of ProposedOverview of ProposedCaRFG3 RegulationsCaRFG3 Regulations
Prohibit use of MTBEProhibit use of MTBE Change sChange specifications to ensure benefits are preserved and to pecifications to ensure benefits are preserved and to
provide flexibilityprovide flexibility Update Predictive ModelUpdate Predictive Model Evaporative emissions model added to Predictive ModelEvaporative emissions model added to Predictive Model Provide CO creditProvide CO credit Increase oxygen cap for 10 percent ethanol blendsIncrease oxygen cap for 10 percent ethanol blends Amend wintertime oxygenate periodAmend wintertime oxygenate period Amend the provisions (CARBOB) for ethanol blendingAmend the provisions (CARBOB) for ethanol blending Denatured ethanol specificationDenatured ethanol specification Add Driveability Index requirementAdd Driveability Index requirement
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
1919
Prohibition on Adding MTBE to Prohibition on Adding MTBE to GasolineGasoline
Consistent with Governor’s Executive Order, Consistent with Governor’s Executive Order, effective December 31, 2002, MTBE cannot be effective December 31, 2002, MTBE cannot be added to gasolineadded to gasoline
Deminimus residual levels to be phased inDeminimus residual levels to be phased in
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2020
Proposed Specification ChangesProposed Specification Changes
Reduce limits for sulfur and benzene to ensure Reduce limits for sulfur and benzene to ensure benefits are preservedbenefits are preserved
Increase limits for T50 and T90 and increase cap Increase limits for T50 and T90 and increase cap limit for aromatic hydrocarbons to provide limit for aromatic hydrocarbons to provide flexibilityflexibility
Allow RVP to vary (6.4 to 7.2 psi.) with use of Allow RVP to vary (6.4 to 7.2 psi.) with use of proposed evaporative model to provide flexibilityproposed evaporative model to provide flexibility
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2121
Updates to the Predictive ModelUpdates to the Predictive Model
More powerful statistics usedMore powerful statistics used Additional emissions data from nine studies includedAdditional emissions data from nine studies included
– About 2,500 additional data pointsAbout 2,500 additional data points
New technology group added to model to reflect newer New technology group added to model to reflect newer vehiclesvehicles– 1996 to 2005 model year vehicles (“Tech 5”)1996 to 2005 model year vehicles (“Tech 5”)
Update weights for vehicle technology groups to reflect Update weights for vehicle technology groups to reflect 2005 vehicle fleet2005 vehicle fleet
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2222
Evaporative Emissions ElementEvaporative Emissions ElementAdded to the Predictive ModelAdded to the Predictive Model
Allows exhaust hydrocarbons and evaporative Allows exhaust hydrocarbons and evaporative hydrocarbons tradinghydrocarbons trading
Increases flexibilityIncreases flexibility Credit for RVP reductionsCredit for RVP reductions
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2323
Added CO CreditAdded CO Credit
Provides credit recognizing role of CO in ozone Provides credit recognizing role of CO in ozone formationformation
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2424
Changes to theChanges to the CARBOB Provisions CARBOB Provisions
Limited changes to simplify distribution with use Limited changes to simplify distribution with use of ethanolof ethanol
Further changes neededFurther changes needed The staff is committed to address other necessary The staff is committed to address other necessary
changes next yearchanges next year
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2525
Extend Oxygen CapExtend Oxygen Cap
Extend oxygen cap for 10 volume percent ethanol Extend oxygen cap for 10 volume percent ethanol from 3.5 weight percent to 3.7 weight percentfrom 3.5 weight percent to 3.7 weight percent
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2626
Wintertime Oxygen Requirement for Wintertime Oxygen Requirement for South CoastSouth Coast
Remove the month of October from the Remove the month of October from the wintertime oxygen season in the South Coast Air wintertime oxygen season in the South Coast Air Basin starting in 2003Basin starting in 2003– Continues to be effective November through FebruaryContinues to be effective November through February
– Only 1 exceedance during October in last 4 yearsOnly 1 exceedance during October in last 4 years
By 2003 no exceedances of the CO standard By 2003 no exceedances of the CO standard would be expected in the month of October.would be expected in the month of October.
OriginaOriginall
Proposal
Proposal
2727
Today’s Amended ProposalToday’s Amended Proposal
Additional modifications to the fuel property limitsAdditional modifications to the fuel property limits Proposed small refiner provisionsProposed small refiner provisions Early access to CaRFG3Early access to CaRFG3 Update relative weightings for exhaust, evaporative, Update relative weightings for exhaust, evaporative,
CO emissions, and vehicle technology groups to CO emissions, and vehicle technology groups to reflect EMFAC 2000 when adopted by the Boardreflect EMFAC 2000 when adopted by the Board
Eliminate the DI specificationEliminate the DI specification Defer setting denatured ethanol specifications until Defer setting denatured ethanol specifications until
CARBOB issues are addressedCARBOB issues are addressed
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
2828
Proposed Specifications for CaRFG3Proposed Specifications for CaRFG3
RVP, psiRVP, psi 7.07.0(1)(1) none none 6.4-7.26.4-7.2
Benzene, vol%Benzene, vol% 0.800.80 0.700.70 1.101.10
Sulfur, ppmwSulfur, ppmw 2020 1515 60/3060/30(3)(3)
Aromatic HC, vol%Aromatic HC, vol% 2525 2222 3535
Olefins, vol. %Olefins, vol. % 6.06.0 4.04.0 1010
Oxygen, wt. %Oxygen, wt. % 1.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.2 na na(2)(2) 3.73.7(4)(4)
T50 T50 ooFF 211211 213213 201201 203203 225225220220
T90 T90 ooFF 305305 295295 335335330330
Driveability IndexDriveability Index(5)(5) 12251225 nana(2)(2) nonenone
PropertyProperty Flat Limits Flat Limits Averaging Limits Averaging Limits Cap Limits Cap Limits
OriginalOriginal TodayToday OriginalOriginal TodayToday Original Original
1) Equal to 6.9 psi. if using the evaporative element of the Predictive Model1) Equal to 6.9 psi. if using the evaporative element of the Predictive Model2) Not Applicable2) Not Applicable3) 60 ppmw. will apply December 31, 2002; 30 ppmw. will apply December 31, 20043) 60 ppmw. will apply December 31, 2002; 30 ppmw. will apply December 31, 20044) Allow 3.7 for gasoline containing no more than 10 volume percent ethanol4) Allow 3.7 for gasoline containing no more than 10 volume percent ethanol5) Driveability Index=1.5*T10+3*T50+T90+20*(wt% oxygen)5) Driveability Index=1.5*T10+3*T50+T90+20*(wt% oxygen)
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
2929
Rationale for Changes to T50 Rationale for Changes to T50 SpecificationSpecification
Better information on how much cleaner in-use Better information on how much cleaner in-use gasoline was than CaRFG2 specificationsgasoline was than CaRFG2 specifications
This showed that T50 could increase by 2 more This showed that T50 could increase by 2 more degrees while still preserving benefitsdegrees while still preserving benefits
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3030
Proposed Small Refiner ProvisionProposed Small Refiner Provision
Only applies to small refiners that produced Only applies to small refiners that produced CaRFG2 in 1998 and 1999CaRFG2 in 1998 and 1999
Volume capVolume cap Emissions increase mitigated by cleaner diesel Emissions increase mitigated by cleaner diesel
fuelfuel– Details in future rulemakingDetails in future rulemaking
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3131
Proposed CaRFG3 SpecificationsProposed CaRFG3 Specificationsfor Small Refinersfor Small Refiners
RVP, psiRVP, psi 7.07.0(1)(1) 7.07.0(1)(1) 6.4-7.26.4-7.2
Benzene, vol%Benzene, vol% 0.800.80 1.01.0 1.101.10
Sulfur, ppmwSulfur, ppmw 2020 2020 60/3060/30(2)(2)
Aromatic HC, vol%Aromatic HC, vol% 2525 3535 3535
Olefins, vol. %Olefins, vol. % 6.06.0 6.06.0 1010
Oxygen, wt. %Oxygen, wt. % 1.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.2 1.8 to 2.21.8 to 2.2 3.73.7(3)(3)
T50 T50 ooFF 213213 220220 220220
T90 T90 ooFF 305305 312312 330330
PropertyProperty Flat Limits Flat Limits Cap LimitsCap LimitsLargeLarge SmallSmall
RefinersRefiners RefinersRefiners
1) Equal to 6.9 psi. if using the evaporative element of the Predictive Model1) Equal to 6.9 psi. if using the evaporative element of the Predictive Model2) 60 ppmw. will apply December 31, 2002; 30 ppmw. will apply December 31, 20042) 60 ppmw. will apply December 31, 2002; 30 ppmw. will apply December 31, 20043) Allow 3.7 for gasoline containing no more than 10 volume percent ethanol3) Allow 3.7 for gasoline containing no more than 10 volume percent ethanol
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3232
Early Access to CaRFG3Early Access to CaRFG3
Facilitate early Facilitate early MTBE removalMTBE removal
Ensure continued Ensure continued enforceability of enforceability of regulationsregulations
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3333
Update CaRFG3 Predictive Model with Update CaRFG3 Predictive Model with EMFAC 2000EMFAC 2000
Original intent was to update the Predictive Model Original intent was to update the Predictive Model with EMFAC 2000with EMFAC 2000
EMFAC 2000 delayedEMFAC 2000 delayed Allow executive officer to adopt technical changes Allow executive officer to adopt technical changes
when EMFAC 2000 approvedwhen EMFAC 2000 approved– EMFAC to be considered by Board in March 2000EMFAC to be considered by Board in March 2000
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3434
Rationale for Elimination of DI Rationale for Elimination of DI SpecificationSpecification
Restoration of CaRFG2 caps preserves DIRestoration of CaRFG2 caps preserves DI California gasolines already have the best DI in California gasolines already have the best DI in
the USthe US Staff believe DI specification should be Staff believe DI specification should be
nationwide specificationnationwide specification
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3535
Denatured Ethanol SpecificationsDenatured Ethanol Specifications
To be considered as part of CARBOB To be considered as part of CARBOB amendments -- no later than October 2000amendments -- no later than October 2000
AmendedAmended Proposal
Proposal
3636
Effects of Today’s ProposalEffects of Today’s Proposal
3737
Overview of EffectsOverview of Effects
EmissionsEmissions EconomicsEconomics Production volumeProduction volume Environmental effectsEnvironmental effects
3838
Effect on EmissionsEffect on Emissions
Air Quality ObjectivesAir Quality Objectives– Preserve emission Preserve emission
benefitsbenefits
– Meets SB 989 (Sher) and Meets SB 989 (Sher) and Governor’s Executive Governor’s Executive Order requirements Order requirements
3939
Preserving BenefitsPreserving Benefits
Determined average properties of gasoline Determined average properties of gasoline marketed in 1998marketed in 1998
Determined emissions benefits achieved with Determined emissions benefits achieved with 1998 in-use gasoline1998 in-use gasoline
Proposed specifications so that future in-use Proposed specifications so that future in-use gasoline would be required to be as clean as 1998 gasoline would be required to be as clean as 1998 gasolinegasoline
Verified proposed specifications more stringent Verified proposed specifications more stringent than CaRFG2 specificationsthan CaRFG2 specifications
4040
Benefits of In-Use CaRFG2 PreservedBenefits of In-Use CaRFG2 Preserved
PollutantPollutant Emissions (2005) Emissions (2005)
PercentPercent tons/tons/dayday
HydrocarbonHydrocarbon - 0.1%- 0.1% - 0.6- 0.6
Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) - 1.2%- 1.2% - 9.9- 9.9
Potency Weighted ToxicsPotency Weighted Toxics - 1.8%- 1.8% nana
na - not applicablena - not applicable
4141
Estimated Production CostEstimated Production Costfor CaRFG3for CaRFG3
Estimated capital costs significantly less than $1 billion, Estimated capital costs significantly less than $1 billion, mostly for MTBE removalmostly for MTBE removal
In October, estimates of ongoing costs were 2 to 6 cents In October, estimates of ongoing costs were 2 to 6 cents per gallonper gallon
Ethanol industry and at least one refiner believe actual Ethanol industry and at least one refiner believe actual costs will be lesscosts will be less
Federal oxygen waiver could reduce costs up to 2 cents Federal oxygen waiver could reduce costs up to 2 cents per gallonper gallon
Under right conditions costs could be zeroUnder right conditions costs could be zero– If cost of ethanol or alkylate blendstocks are less than MTBEIf cost of ethanol or alkylate blendstocks are less than MTBE
4242
Environmental Impacts of CaRFG3Environmental Impacts of CaRFG3
MTBE contamination of existing water sources will be MTBE contamination of existing water sources will be limited to pre-existing MTBE contaminationlimited to pre-existing MTBE contamination
Less benzene contamination of surface and ground Less benzene contamination of surface and ground waterwater
Increased ethanol use may result in slight increase in Increased ethanol use may result in slight increase in transportation emissions from rail and heavy duty truckstransportation emissions from rail and heavy duty trucks
No net increase in greenhouse gas emissionsNo net increase in greenhouse gas emissions Decreases in NOx, potency weighted toxics and Decreases in NOx, potency weighted toxics and
equivalency on hydrocarbon emissions equivalency on hydrocarbon emissions
4343
Effects on Air and Water QualityEffects on Air and Water Quality
ARB and SWRCB are ARB and SWRCB are evaluating the environmental evaluating the environmental fate and transport of ethanol in fate and transport of ethanol in air and waterair and water
OEHHA evaluating health OEHHA evaluating health impactsimpacts
To be considered by the To be considered by the Environmental Policy Council Environmental Policy Council (January 18, 2000)(January 18, 2000)
4444
Effects of Commingling Gasoline with Effects of Commingling Gasoline with Ethanol and Gasoline Without EthanolEthanol and Gasoline Without Ethanol When gasoline with ethanol is blended with When gasoline with ethanol is blended with
gasoline without ethanol, RVP increasesgasoline without ethanol, RVP increases– Results in higher evaporative emissionsResults in higher evaporative emissions– Since Staff Report released, we have done further work Since Staff Report released, we have done further work
to quantifyto quantify Effect on emissions depends on various factorsEffect on emissions depends on various factors
– Oxygen waiverOxygen waiver– Refiner choices; mix of fuel available in given areaRefiner choices; mix of fuel available in given area– Consumer choices; brand loyalty and grade loyaltyConsumer choices; brand loyalty and grade loyalty
4545
Commingling ImpactsCommingling Impacts
The staff estimates commingling could increase The staff estimates commingling could increase average RVP by about 0.1 psiaverage RVP by about 0.1 psi
Proposed specifications provide cushion for Proposed specifications provide cushion for commingling effectscommingling effects
Propose commingling study by December 2001 to Propose commingling study by December 2001 to assure we have addressed comminglingassure we have addressed commingling
4646
Independent Peer Review of Staff’s Independent Peer Review of Staff’s AssessmentAssessment
Followed Cal/EPA formal process for conducting Followed Cal/EPA formal process for conducting peer reviewpeer review
– Staff ProposalStaff Proposal
– Predictive ModelPredictive Model
Peer reviews confirm staff proposal meets Peer reviews confirm staff proposal meets objectives objectives
4747
Next StepsNext Steps
Use today’s action to follow up on EPA oxygen waiverUse today’s action to follow up on EPA oxygen waiver Adjust predictive model to reflect final EMFAC 2000Adjust predictive model to reflect final EMFAC 2000
– RVP and evaporative emissions relationshipRVP and evaporative emissions relationship– Vehicle group weightingsVehicle group weightings
Return to Board by October 2000Return to Board by October 2000– CARBOB AmendmentsCARBOB Amendments– Finalize small refiner provisionsFinalize small refiner provisions– Denatured ethanol specificationDenatured ethanol specification
Request US EPA to consider national DI specificationRequest US EPA to consider national DI specification Environmental Policy Council review January 18, 2000Environmental Policy Council review January 18, 2000 Initiate process to monitor refiner progress toward complianceInitiate process to monitor refiner progress toward compliance
4848
Next Steps Next Steps (Continued)(Continued)
Conduct commingling study in 2001Conduct commingling study in 2001 In 2004In 2004
– Evaluate real-world CaRFG3 gasoline properties to Evaluate real-world CaRFG3 gasoline properties to ensure real-world benefits of CaRFG2 are preservedensure real-world benefits of CaRFG2 are preserved
– Evaluate real-world DI levels in CaRFG3Evaluate real-world DI levels in CaRFG3
– Complete evaluation with CEC on impacts of near zero Complete evaluation with CEC on impacts of near zero sulfur levels in gasoline (including impacts on supply sulfur levels in gasoline (including impacts on supply and cost of production), and CaRFG3 in-use sulfur and cost of production), and CaRFG3 in-use sulfur levelslevels
4949
RecommendationRecommendation
The staff recommends that the Board adopt the staff The staff recommends that the Board adopt the staff proposal as modified today to phase out MTBE and proposal as modified today to phase out MTBE and to provide refiners additional production flexibility to provide refiners additional production flexibility while maintaining the emissions benefits of the while maintaining the emissions benefits of the existing reformulated gasoline programexisting reformulated gasoline program
Direct staff to return before the Board no later than Direct staff to return before the Board no later than October 2000 to address CARBOB, denatured October 2000 to address CARBOB, denatured ethanol specifications, and small refiner provisionsethanol specifications, and small refiner provisions