1 ‘ PREACHING AT HARVEST: FOOD,FARMING & FAITH’ THE FARMING YEAR RCSN & YRSN HOWARD PETCH...

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‘PREACHING AT HARVEST: FOOD,FARMING & FAITH’

THE FARMING YEAR

RCSN & YRSNHOWARD PETCH September 5th 2013

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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH

THE FARMING YEAR: FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: BIG PICTURE (1)

“This suggests that the outlook for world food supplies is in fact relatively stable and that supply is keeping up with demand” (Defra Food Chain Analysis Group Dec 2006)

“Food prices are causing misery and strife around the world. Radical solutions are needed……..this is a silent tsunami” (Josette Sheeran UN World Food Programme 2008)

“ The case for urgent action in the global food system is now compelling. We are at a unique moment in history as diverse factors converge to affect the demand, production and distribution of food over” (Professor John Beddington Foresight Report 2011)

“ Sleep Walking into Global Famine” --- The world cannot feed 9.3 billion people (BOOK TITLE: Benny Dembitzer 2012)

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“The battle to feed all humanity is over. In 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any cash programmes embarked on now” (The Population Bomb Paul Ehrlich 1968)

BUT A Green Revolution----genetics; nitrogen fertilisers; agro-

chemicals; irrigation (Norman Borlaug) but green revolution often came with unsustainable environmental impacts

Yield increases of 2.5-3x: Kept pace with population growth and more

Now 17% more calories per person per day than 30 years ago despite being 70% more people (FAO Data)

In UK would need almost 3 x more land in agriculture if producing at 1945/46 yield levels. In India at 1961 levels an extra 65 million Ha (Size of France)

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Out of 7billion plus almost 1 billion live on the verge of starvation; at least 5 million die of starvation each year

A further billion live in ‘hidden hunger’ without the benefit of the right food

A further 1 billion are overweight/obese

“In the next few years we shall witness famine on an unprecedented scale across the globe…..The scale of the problem will hit an unprepared world without notice because no one is looking………Those who care about the poorest need to identify clear aims, and target and work for specific changes. On the present showing there will not be sufficient resources to meet the shortfalls in food and water” (Benny Dembitzer 2012)

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THE FARMING YEAR: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: THE BIG CHALLENGES (1)

Population Growth

Climate Change

Land Availability & Use

Dietary Changes & per capita demand

Water Availability & Use

Global Energy Demand

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THE FARMING YEAR: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: THE BIG CHALLENGES (2)

Waste

Protecting Biodiversity

Emerging Technologies

Internationalisation of Trade/Governance :

Exploitation in Food Chain/Speculation

Social Science: Changes in Ethical Stance of Consumers

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THE FARMING YEAR: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: THE BIG IMPLICATIONS

‘Adapting to climate change, lifting 1 billion starving people out of hunger, addressing escalating obesity are just some of the many formidable economic, social and environmental challenges confronting the food system. One thing is clear; if society is going to successfully meet these challenges, something has to change.

Business as usual is not an option’ FOOD ETHICS COUNCIL“BEYOND BUSINESS AS USUAL” REPORT FEBRUARY 2013

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (Tools of the Trade)

Arable and Livestock Farming

SOIL: Major component in land classification system: Grade 1 (Excellent) Grade 5 (Poor) Grades ½= 21%

GENETICS: Seed/Livestock

NUTRITION: Plant/Animal

HEALTH: Plant/Animal

KNOWLEDGE & SKILL OF FARMER--HUSBANDRY-’CAREFUL MANAGEMENT’-- APPLICATION OF TECHNOLOGY—RANGE--MARKETING

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (Business & Family Objectives)

Profitability

Family Aspirations & Lifestyle; Succession

Specialist interests and motivators

Sustainability & Environmental Objectives ’Live as if you are going to die tomorrow and farm as if you are going to farm for ever’

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (External Influences—Little or No control)

Weather—Climate Change; volatility

End Price; Market forces & volatility: Global factors: Commodity speculation

Input costs; especially energy

Power in the food chain

Governance: Land, Agriculture, Environmental & Food Policy; Trade issues

Bureaucracy; Technology restrictions

External payments: Subsidies? Public Good payments

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE---ENTERPRISE ROUTINES/SEASONALITY

A key element of farming life is the regularity and rhythm of the seasons. The nature of seasonality varies with the type of farming

Livestock farming based on the breeding cycle of the animal in tune with the growing patterns/seasons

Dairy Cow gestation—9 months—Produces milk 9/10 months—Dry 2/3 months

Most dairy herds milk cows 24/7/365– 1-3x per day--very demanding

Control over calving patterns—cost of feed/supply Feed on growing grass/forage April-October and

conserved forage September to April

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE-ENTERPRISE ROUTINES/SEASONALITY

Most pig and poultry farms are a continuous cycle of breeding and production

Sow gestation 3months/3 weeks/3 days—Pigs weaned at 3-8 weeks—indoor/outdoor breeding—

Range of rearing systems—pig slaughtered at 90-100Kg at 5-6 months of age

Most sheep flocks are mated in the autumn with lambs born in the spring (breeding cycle influenced by day length)

Lambs born January –April depending on breed/conditions Sold 3-12 months of age

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE-ENTERPRISE ROUTINES/SEASONALITY

Most winter wheat, winter barley & OSR rape are sown in the autumn and harvested July/August

Spring cereals, OSR and all potatoes, sugar beet, peas, beans, are sown in spring and harvested in summer/autumn/winter

Fruit & Vegetables: outdoor; plastic; glasshouse; through the year; contractual obligations

Working in tune with the seasons with an innate sense of timing is the key to good husbandry

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THE FARMING YEAR: VARIATION ACCORDING TO FARM TYPE

September-November Harvesting; foraging; ploughing; cultivating; drilling; tupping;

sheep sales; calving/farrowing; housing livestock; livestock sales (stores) plant health care

December-FebruaryWinter care of all livestock; Plant health care; marketing

arable crops, Farm maintenance; spread manure; calving; start lambing

March-MaySowing, planting, spraying, fertilising (top dressing) lambing,

calving; silage making; clean out livestock buildings June-August Sheep shearing; hay making; second cut silage; vining peas;

combining; baling; ploughing

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: KEY FEATURES OF 2012/13 (1)

2012--The second wettest summer on record, flooded fields and ruined crops forcing farmers to bring in their livestock and causing the cost of feed to rise sharply

Winter proved just as difficult with the spread of diseases such as Schmallenberg virus, liver fluke and bovine TB

Arable farmers were unable to plant crops in flooded fields, planted fields suffered slug infestations and continuation of very cold, wet weather into Spring meant this years harvest will suffer.

Some land not cropped

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This last year the weather has affected all types of farming, livestock, upland and arable

Through last winter crop prices soared (wheat futures high of £227/t) and potatoes were selling at over £300/t

However the higher values failed to make up losses in yield and quality whilst substantially increasing feed prices for livestock farmers--‘Up horn, down corn’ (AG Street)

Virtually all inputs have increased in price

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Defra profitability projections for 2012/13 (Compared to previous year)

General Cropping -11% Cereals -11% Dairy*** -42% Mixed -24% Specialist Poultry unchanged Specialist Pigs -50% Grazing Livestock (lowland) -44% Grazing Livestock (Upland) -52%

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: KEY FEATURES OF 2013/14

In March 2013 a farming leader described ‘the summer and winter from hell’ as he tried to assess the state of the industry.

The projections were that the effects of such appalling weather were likely to continue for at least another year and in some respects (damage to land) much longer

However the impact of a good summer has been quite amazing and harvest projections are very encouraging. Grain yields and quality are better than many had expected and a good autumn would help to restore some stability and a measure of sanity!

The issue of TB incorporating the badger cull continues to be an issue of major tension especially in the south west

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: THE RECENT PAST

(1995-2005) Deep agricultural recession including BSE/FMD

Concern re long term viability / loss of self worth

Succession: Future of family farm? Lack of investment

Loss of personnel / skill base / new entrants

Ripple effect through rural economy

2006-2013 The winds of change

Change of culture as the industry re-structures

“The future belongs to those who can give the next generation reason to hope” (Pierre De Tielhard)

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THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: PRESSURE POINTS

Finance Bureaucracy: Defra; RPA; BCMS General Health Depression/Mental Health Issues Weather implications Family Tensions Succession/Retirement Legal issues Animal Health/Welfare TB Tenancy Bereavement

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THE FARMING YEAR: CONSUMERS PERSPECTIVE (1)

UK produces 62% of its own food requirement down from 75% in 1991 (August 14th)

In 2012 UK food imports were worth £37.5Bn and exports £18.2Bn

The term ‘food security’ relates to ensuring availability of enough food to feed the population. In a Defra survey only 4% of respondents understood the term

Food accounts for 11.3% of household spend; this % is creeping up over recent years

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THE FARMING YEAR: CONSUMERS PERSPECTIVE (2)

Food prices have risen 12% in real terms over the last 5 years---growth in food banks

The average household wastes 15% of edible food and drink purchases at average cost of £480 per household

41% of shoppers regard price as the most important factor in product choice

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THE FARMING YEAR: ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES IN DEVELOPING WORLD

Poverty Trap Increase in food prices in the UK is a real challenge for some; if

you are living on <2$ a day it is a matter of life and death

Worsening physical environment; Fragility of agriculture; isolation; Bad governance; corruption; fuedalism/authoritariansim; Gender inequality; Education/skill deficit; Trade distortion War, refugees Land ownership/tenure; land rights Credit/microcredit

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THE FARMING YEAR: SOME KEY ISSUE FOR ALL OF US (1)

BIO-TECHNOLOGY: THE GM DEBATE

SOURCES OF ENERGY: THE USE OF LAND: BIO FUELS?

INTENSIVE OR EXTENSIVE: ORGANICS?

IS BIG BAD?

THE CARBON FOOTPRINT(UK Agric 7% ghg)

LEVEL OF MEAT EATING?

ANIMAL WELFARE

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THE FARMING YEAR: SOME KEY ISSUE FOR ALL OF US (2)

POWER IN THE FOOD CHAIN—FAIR TRADE

TRADE POLICIES; FREE;—POLITICAL IMPOTENCE/CONTROL

FOOD PROVENANCE; DEVELOPING WORLD

MINIMISING WASTE

PUBLIC GOOD IN THE COUNTRYSIDE

THE HIDDEN COSTS OF CHEAP FOOD

CONSUMER RIGHTS & OBLIGATIONS

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THE FARMING YEAR: SOME HARVEST THEMES (1)

GRATITUDE—don’t take for granted

CREATION—Responsible stewardship; Sustainable intensification

DEPENDENCY—On creation /elements

SEASONS—a time for everything under heaven

HOPE / EXPECTATION---even in tough times

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THE FARMING YEAR: SOME HARVEST THEMES (2)

INTER-DEPENDENCY—Global; Urban/Rural; Food chain

THE WIDER WORLD—Awareness of needs of others

ADVOCACY / ENCOURAGEMENT—understand the issues

THE RESPONSIBLE CONSUMER—Informed decisions

TRUST IN THE PROMISES OF GOD—as long as earth remains……

SPIRITUAL TRUTH—Jesus’ illustrative use of pastoral/rural culture

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THE FARMING YEAR: CLIMAX OF THE HARVEST FESTIVAL

THANK YOU

QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION?

1 ‘ PREACHING AT HARVEST: FOOD,FARMING & FAITH’ THE FARMING YEAR RCSN & YRSN HOWARD PETCH...

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