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1
Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief Economist
ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
THE WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK THE WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
AMSTERDAM, March 2007AMSTERDAM, March 2007
2Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2006
source: IMF (WEO, September 2006)
Foreign exchange reserves, billion $
Japan
China
India
Asia excl. China
& IndiaRussia Eastern
Europe
Middle-East
Westernhemisp.
3Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 2
0
500
1000
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2000
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3000
3500
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
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-3
-2
-1
0
US current-account balance,annual rate, % of GDP
sources: BEA, IMF
World reserves, billion $
World reserves & US current-account balance
4Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
I - UNITED STATES
5Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
BELOW POTENTIAL GROWTH IN 2007
The housing market correction is not over yet Slowdown mitigated by temporary phenomenon: oil prices down,
unexpected warm weather... Consumption is expected to weaken
GDP growth close to 2% in 2007 But the economy will rebound later : once inventory correction (housing and
industry) is over
6Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
LOWER INFLATIONARY PRESSURES
Upward pressures from energy prices have receded Gradual decline in core inflation Slower growth in activity alleviate tensions Increases in shelter costs to moderate Fed Fed’s view to change Ease expected for the end of Q2
EXTERNAL IMBALANCES The current account deficit is expected to remain close to 6.5% GDP Slower domestic demand and a weaker dollar should limit the slippage
7Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 3
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-5
0
5
10
15
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90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
GDP
Non residential private investment
Residential private investment
USA: real GDP & investment growth
(y/y %)
source: BEA
8Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 4
-20
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
USA: exports & imports growth, & external contribution
source: BEA
External contribution to real GDP growth
(q/q annualized growth, %)
Exports of G&S, volume, y/y %
Imports of G&S, volume, y/y %
9Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 5
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
35
40
45
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65USA : industrial production & ISM
sources: Federal Reserve, ISM
Industrial production, y/y %
ISM
10Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 6
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45
50
55
60
65
70
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Manufacturing
Non manufacturing
United States: ISM indices
source: ISM
11Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 7
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-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
United States: existing home sales & existing homes for sale
source: Bureau of Census
(y/y %)
Existing home sales
Available existing homes for sale
12Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 8
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-10
0
10
20
30
40
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
20
30
40
50
60
70
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Housing permits
USA : housing starts, permits, investment & NAHB
source: BEA, Bureau of Census, NAHB
Housing starts
Residential investment
y/y %
NAHB index
13Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 9
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Total
USA : employment, thousands
source: BLS
Construction
14Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 10
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0
5
10
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78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
-60
-40
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0
20
40
60
Residential private investment, volume
USA : employment & residential investment, y/y %
sources: BEA, BLS
Employment : construction
15Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 11
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
USA: flows of household debt and investment
Mortgage debt,billion $
Residentialinvestment,
billion $
source: Federal Reserve (Flow of Funds)
16Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 12
-1
0
1
2
3
4
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85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Consumption
USA: household income and consumption
(volume, y/y % change)
Disposable income
source: BEA
17Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 13
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30
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78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
3
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11USA: Conference Board surveys & unemployment
sources: Conference Board, BLS
Jobs hard to get - Jobs plentiful(consumer surveys on the present employment)
Unemployment rate, %
18Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 14
0
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10
12
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70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
USA: the employment insecurity indicator & the unemployment rate
source: BLS
Job leavers as % of total unemployed
Unemployment rate, %
19Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 15
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
United States: employment & real GDP growth, y/y %
sources: BEA, BLS
Real GDP
Total employment
20Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
400
450
500
550
600
650
Net financial wealth as % of disposable income
Personal savings as % ofdisposable income
United States: household savings and net financial wealth
sources: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve
Unemployment rate, %
21Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 17
-1000
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0
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3USA: household acquisitions of corporate equities
in billion $,annual rate
as % of disposable income
source: Federal Reserve (FoF)
22Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 18
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-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Total
Structures
Equipment & software
USA: breakdown of the nonresidential private fixed investment
(volume, y/y %)
source: BEA
23Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 19
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-5
0
5
10
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
USA: corporate investment & financing gap
sources: BEA, Federal Reserve
Financing gap as % of GDP
Non residential investment, structures, volume, y/y %
Non residential investment, equipment & software, volume, y/y %
24Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 20
-25
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0
5
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15
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Nonresidentialprivate investment :
equipment & software
New orders of nondefensecapital goods excl. Aircraft(3-month-moving average)
USA: investment and orders
sources: BEA, Bureau of Census
(y/y % change)
25Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 21
-800
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0
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-60
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0
20
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100USA: dividends, new equity issues & profits of corporate business*
source: Federal Reserve (FoF)
Profits before tax,y/y % Net new equity issues,
billion $, annual rate
(* nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business)
Net dividends,billion $, annual rate
26Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 22
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-20
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0
10
20
30
40GDP
deflator
Unit labor cost
USA: unit labour cost, GDP deflator & corporate profits, y/y %
sources: BEA, BLS
Corporate profits
27Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 23
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2
4
6
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Core inflation
USA: inflation & hourly earnings, y/y %
source: BLS
Total inflation
Hourly earnings
28Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 24
-2
0
2
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6
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86USA: unit labour cost, core inflation & capacity utilisation rate
Unit labour cost, y/y % (total business sector)
sources:BLS, Federal Reserve
Core inflation, y/y %
Capacity utilisation rate, %
29Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 25
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2
3
4
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6
7
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Core CPIShelterCore CPI less shelterTotal CPI
sources: BEA, BNPParibas
United States: inflation, y/y %
30Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 26
0
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15
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80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
USA: GDP growth & Fed Funds rate
sources: BEA, Federal Reserve
Current GDP, y/y %
Fed Funds rate
31Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 27
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0
5
10
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
3
5
7
9
11
Output gap, %
USA: Fed Funds, output gap & unemployment rate
sources: Federal Reserve, BLS
Real Fed Funds rate, %
Unemployment rate, %
32Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
II - EUROZONE
33Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Growth above potential in 2006 Solid domestic demand. Weak external sector (with the exception of Germany)
Deceleration in 2007 Impact of VAT hike in H1 2007 (however, lower-than-expected) External demand: the impact of US slowdown Impact of the Euro appreciation Lagging impact of monetary tightening
34Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Inflation : what ECB looks at Pressure on core inflation
Wage negotiations (Germany and Italy) Higher capacity use rebuilds pricing power
Headline inflation impacted by favourable base effects until summer
Monetary stance M3 growth reached a record high since the launch of the Euro Lending to household is slowing, lending to corporate is accelerating Interest rates are entering in neutral territory Refi rate at 4% in mid-2007. A pause is to follow
35Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
STRUCTURAL ISSUES
Challenges : low potential growth the cost of aging
A lot remains to be done : fiscal consolidation goods market reform (privatization, competition, barriers to entry etc…) labour market reform (disincentives to work, disincentives to create jobs
have to be addressed…)
The political impediments
36Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 28
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0
2
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6
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Euro zone : real growth, y/y %
sources: OECD, Eurostat
GDP
Private consumption
Investment
37Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 29
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60
65
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
Composite PMI
Real GDP, q/q , %
sources: Reuters, Eurostat
Euro zone : PMI and real GDP growth
38Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 30
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
GermanyFranceItalySpain
Real GDP growth, y/y %
source: Eurostat
39Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 31
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5
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15
20
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Germany France
Italy Spain
Exports of G&S, volume, y/y %
source: Eurostat
40Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 32
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Unit labour cost, manufacturing, indice Q1/92=100
source: OECD
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
41Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 33
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2
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6
8
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Germany
France
Italy
Spain
Household consumption, volume, y/y %
source: Eurostat
42Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 34
0
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93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0
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25
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40Euro zone : wages and inflation
Negotiated wages,y/y %
Expected inflation over next 12 months*
sources: Eurostat, * European commission surveys
Observed inflation, y/y %
43Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 35
-2
0
2
4
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
78
80
82
84
86
Core inflation, y/y %
sources: European Commission, Eurostat
Industrialcapacity utilisation
rate, %Unit labourcost, y/y %
Euro zone: utilisation rate, labour costs and inflation
44Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 36
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total inflation
Core inflation
Euro zone: ECB repo rate and inflation
ECB short-term repo rate
sources: Eurostat, ECB
45Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 37
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Euro zone: interest rates
Real 10-year rate
Real 3-month rate
ECB short-term repo rate
sources: ECB, Eurostat
46Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 38
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
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2
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0,8
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
USA/Euro zone: interest rate & exchange rate
EUR/USD exchange rate
(monthly averages)
USA-Germany : 10-year interest spread, %
sources: Bundesbank, Federal Reserve, Reuters
47Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
III - JAPAN
48Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
ECONOMIC GROWTH HEADING TOWARDS A SOFT PATCH
GDP growth, 2.2% in 2006, likely to decelerate below potential in H1 07, before accelerating again, up 2% at most in 2007
Final domestic demand is supportive
Inventories correction will substact to growth early in 2007
Slowdown in exports but also in investment
49Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
BoJ hiked last month
Credibility issue, risks seen with asset prices
BoJ will remain cautious (long pause expected)
The yen should gradually strengthen versus the dollar (unwinding of carry trade...)
Japan core inflation at zero and below zero with international standards
50Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 39
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07source: Cabinet Office
Japan : real GDP and domestic demand growth, y/y %
Real Domestic demand
Real GDP
51Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 40
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80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Industrial production
Inventory ratio
Japan : industrial production and inventories
(indices, 1995=100)
source: MoF
52Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 41
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30
40
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Japan: profits and business climate
Current profits, all industries, y/y % change
Tankan surveys: business condition, forecasts, all enterprises, %
sources: MoF, Tankan (Bank of Japan)
53Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 42
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
0,4
0,5
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0,7
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0,9
1
1,1Japan : employment growth and job offers to applicants ratio
source: Ministry of Labour
Full-time employees, y/y %
Job offers to applicants ratio
54Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 43
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0
2
4
6
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07sources: Ministry of Labour, Ministry of Public Management
Japan : wages & inflation, y/y %
Inflation
Average earnings (6-month moving average)
55Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 44
0605
04 03020100
999897
9695
9493
9291
90 89
8887
86
85 8483
8281
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7776
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7271
-3
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6
9
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15
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21
1 2 3 4 5 6Unemployment rate, %
Cor
e in
flat
ion,
%
source: Statistics Bureau of MIC
Japan: inflation & unemployment
56Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 45
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40
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Japan : exports growth, %
Goods exports* to the USA
Goods exports* to China
(* 3-month moving average of the y/y %)
sources: MoF, Cabinet Office
Exports of G&S, volume, y/y %
57Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 46
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5
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15
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Japan: nonresidential investment & excess capacityTankan surveys: excess capacity,
actual, all enterprises, %
sources: Cabinet Office, Tankan (Bank of Japan)
Nonresidential investment, volume, y/y %
58Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 47
-2
-1
0
1
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Japan : core inflation & target rate
Total inflation,y/y %
sources: Ministry of Public Management, BoJ
Core inflation (excl. Fresh food),y/y %
Call overnight, target rate, %
59Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 48
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150
200
250
300
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000Japan : land prices and Nikkei
sources: Japan Real Estate Institute,Tokyo Stock Exchange
Nikkei
Land prices index: 6 big cities
60Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 49
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150USA/Japan: interest spread & exchange rate
sources: BBA, Reuters
LIBOR 3-monthinterest spread: USA - Japan, %
USD/JPY exchange rate
61Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Chart 50
0
1
2
3
4
5
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160Euro zone/Japan: interest spread & exchange rate
sources: BBA, Reuters
LIBOR 3-monthinterest spread: Euro zone - Japan, %
EUR/JPY exchange rate
62Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
Economic Research Department economic-research.bnpparibas.com Philippe d'ARVISENET 33 1.43.16.95.58 [email protected] Chief Economist OECD COUNTRIES Philippe d'ARVISENET Eric VERGNAUD 33 1.42.98.49.80 [email protected] Head of OECD Countries research Structural issues, forecasts Caroline NEWHOUSE-COHEN 33 1.43.16.95.50 [email protected] Country economics UNITED STATES, CANADA Jean-Marc LUCAS 33.1.43.16.95.53 [email protected] JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, NEW ZEALAND Caroline NEWHOUSE-COHEN 33 1.43.16.95.50 [email protected] EURO ZONE, ITALY, EU ENLARGEMENT Clemente De LUCIA 33.1.42.98.27.62 [email protected] FRANCE, EURO ZONE LABOUR MARKET Mathieu KAISER 33.1.55.77.71.89 [email protected] GERMANY, AUSTRIA, SWITZERLAND, PUBLIC FINANCES Frédérique CERISIER 33 1.43.16.95.52 [email protected] SPAIN, PORTUGAL, GREECE, SINGLE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MARKET Eric VERGNAUD 33 1.42.98.49.80 [email protected] UNITED KINGDOM, NORDIC COUNTRIES, BENELUX, PENSIONS, LONG TERM FORECASTS Raymond VAN DER PUTTEN 33 1.42.98.53.99 [email protected]
63Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
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64Philippe d’ArvisenetGlobal Chief EconomistEconomic Research Department
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