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Part II. Developing a Proposal for Research

Objective:

To understand the issues, process, and good practice associated with developing a good research proposal

Lecture Summary:2.1 Selection of a Topic for Research2.2 Writing the Proposal

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2.1 Selection of a Topic for Research

Selecting an appropriate topic is a difficult task: • Be careful not to set targets too high in terms of:

– Extent of research (amount of work to be completed)

– Complexity of problem to be solved (within the potential expertise, and not beyond current technology or theory base).

• Better to have lower goals and do that work more deeply and with more rigor.

• Requires a certain amount of knowledge in the area

• Requires a degree of creativity in coming-up with a topic.

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Identify the resources required to complete the work (will constrain the scope of the study):

• Essential to estimate: • what is required, and • what is available;• balance the two in terms of:

– Time:• Researcher person hours for the study

– Equipment and materials– Experts/expertise:

• Statistical techniques• Modeling• Computing• Use of equipment and or procedures

– Cost (budget – what is available or requested)– Space

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Selecting the topic:• This will usually be within certain boundaries:

– interest of the researcher– expertise of the researcher– needs of the sponsor– and limitations of other required resources

• For a MSBC or PhD student, your boundaries will also include:– the expertise, interests, and funding provided by your supervisor and/or by

the university– …although you will try to match with a supervisor of similar interests to

you

• Selection of the topic should start with a broad definition and then be gradually refined

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• Develop lists to help select the topic:– (1) A lists of topics of interest

• this should start off fairly broad• you will be better motivated if you choose something of interest to you• this will also allow you to further your expertise within a field – good for your

career• can use brainstorming

– (2) A list of personal strengths and weaknesses:• these can influence the chosen topic directly• they can also affect the methodology and analysis adopted

– (3) A list of topics of current interest in practice• this can, in part be developed from a literature search and review (but keep it

general)• identify current problems of importance and of interest• sometimes these are “hot” topics, and may or may not include a degree of hype

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– (4) A lists of readily accessible data sources• contacts in industry or in practice firms• interests and expertise of potential supervisors and collaborators• government institutions (eg: NOAA publish climatic data for different

regions) • other researchers’ work that you have direct access to

– (5) A list of research limitations:• availability of published information on a topic (eg: is the subject well

researched and published,… is data not published since it has industrial or military sensitivities)

• and the availability of time and other resources such as:• …of equipment and materials• …of necessary experience and expertise• …of finances• …of space, etc…

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• These lists should be general• Now start evaluating the information on the lists:

– Let the topics be the driving force (see items above: (1) your interests and (3) current research)

– Don’t let the constraints dictate what is done… they should be either overcome (best) or at most define the scope of the research and the specific approaches adopted

• Evaluate the alternative topics identified:– What does the research seek to achieve?:

• to extend understanding in….etc

– What does the research seek to find out?:

• may be several factors that are being considered at this stage

• furthering the literature review may help home-in on the most appropriate of these

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• Refining the topic– this is an iterative process

– big changes and steps are made in the earlier iterations

– the refinement continues right through the research process, albeit usually in minor ways in the later stages

– even during the analysis stage, there may be some refinement that requires going back and collecting more data

– eg: later refinement may include things such as the addition or exclusion of variables

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2.2 Writing the Proposal

The outcome of the initial investigation will be a proposal for research:

• For a MSBC or PhD, this will be a few pages long

• For an NSF proposal, this will be about 15 pages long (including supplementary information.

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Depending on the nature of the research and the audience, the proposal should contain the following:

• Title:– Should define the subject of the research in the broadest

terms

– Keep as short as possible

– Avoid openings such as: “A Proposal to…”

– Eg: A User Study of Tenants’ Attitudes Towards Contemporary, Low-Rise, Public Housing

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• Aim:– A statement of what the research will attempt to do

• for qualitative research: what is to be investigated • eg: to determine a more efficient means of modeling heat flow in

buildings in terms of computing speed, accuracy, and ease of use.• for quantitative research: to determine the relationship between

the dependent and independent variables• eg: to determine the cost savings for a typical 3 bedroom house in

North Florida using “type-X” insulation• here, the independent variable is the use (or no-use) of type-X

insulation, and the dependent variable is the cost savings.– The Aim is a statement of what is to be done at the strategic level (cmpf:

the Objectives which are statements of what is to be done at the tactical level)

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• Objectives:– The objectives translate the Aim into a set of operational statements– There will be several required to cover the complete Aim.– While they are related within the context of the Aim, each objective is self-

sufficient.– Eg:

• To determine the annual energy consumption for a typical 3 bedroom house in North Florida.

• To determine the annual energy consumption for a typical 3 bedroom house in North Florida, that has type-X insulation installed.

• To determine the material and installation cost of type-X insulation for a typical 3 bedroom house in North Florida.

• To develop a life cycle cost model of energy consumption and type-X insulation installation, for a 20 year period.

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• Hypotheses:– This is a conjecture, suggesting a relationship between an independent and

dependent variable:

• It typically indicates the direction of that relationship (causality)

• Eg: the use of type-X insulation in typical 3 bedroom homes in North Florida will provide significant life-cycle cost savings

• here, the inclusion of type-X insulation causes the significant savings (the direction is “insulation” affecting “cost”)

• NB: the use of type-X insulation in typical 3 bedroom homes in North Florida will reduce energy consumption and thus lead to significant cost savings

• This is not a good hypothesis since it includes 2 dependent variables (what if one was true and the other false – is the hypothesis then true or false?)

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– Hypotheses are used at different stages in a project, depending on the nature of the research:

• at the start of the study when you have an idea of what may be happening – in this case, you may try to disprove the hypothesis

• following a preliminary investigation – this might be after a pilot survey, the findings of which would be used infer hypotheses, then tested in a more detailed study

• Towards the end of the study – eg: ethnographic surveys, where there are perhaps no objectives, but just the aim of coming to understand something better.

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– They are produced to be tested objectively

– There may be one main hypothesis, and several secondary hypotheses (one for each dependent-independent variable pair)

– The goal is not to prove a hypothesis, but rather to either corroborate it or to disprove it.

– May try to disprove the opposite hypothesis

– Trying to prove a hypothesis can introduce bias:

• may make you look for supporting evidence, ignoring contradicting evidence

• often, only need one opposing item of evidence to disprove an idea

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– Hypotheses indicate data requirements and suggest analyses to be performed– Eg: Low-rise housing does not cause tenants to be more satisfied with their habitat than

high-rise housing– In this case, to test the hypothesis, we need to isolate:

• The environmental factors that may cause tenant satisfaction. These may include:

• type of housing• income of tenants• family make-up• etc… • While there may be a correlation between housing form and satisfaction, that

does not mean a cause-effect relationship (necessarily)• There could be a common cause (that is associated with both satisfaction and

housing form) – eg: this could be related to the newness of the housing, or result from selective placement of tenants

• ……

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• ….• This is a common mistake made by researchers, to assume correlation

implies cause and effect.– To determine cause-effect, we need to define how one variable imposes upon another

• Eg: high-rise housing reduces interaction between neighbors which in turn is associated with satisfaction

• Scope– In part, the scope of a research project will be defined by the Aim and the Objectives– Often, however, the scope requires more information than this:

• to qualify the limits of an objective• to clarify what will not be done

– Eg: This study will consider houses built within the last 5 years, using a timber frame form of construction.

– Eg: This study will not consider industrial construction projects.

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• Methodology– Analogy: think of a recipe for baking a cake:

• this includes a list of ingredients and a procedure for mixing and cooking them

• the procedural part of a recipe is like the methodology of a research project.

– It is a description of the techniques and procedures that will be employed in the execution of the research:

• for collecting data

• eg: surveys; data mining…

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• for analyzing the data

• eg: statistical tests

• eg: development and then assessment of models (such as regression analysis)

*

* *

** *

**

Hou

se p

rice

Square footage

*

Once you have built the modelyou can measure the slope (eg: $180/ft)and compare to other housing markets

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• for validating any theories or models developed by the research

• eg: correlation measures between the predictions of a model and reality

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

Act

ual c

ost $

Predicted cost $

*

each point represents predicted versus actual cost for a given problem

predicted value is too high

predicted value is too low

Although this problem on average follows the straight line, it has a lot of variance (model is not consistently good at predicting individual values)

for a perfect model, all points would fall on this 45 degree line

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***

**

*

* *Act

ual c

ost $

Predicted cost $

*

This model has a lot of bias that increases for higher cost problems. It is positively biased in that it tends to overestimate costs.

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• for drawing conclusions and making inferences

• eg: having developed and validated a model, you then perform what-if studies and sensitivity analyses

Pred

icte

d an

nual

cos

t sav

ings

$

Thickness of insulation (mm)

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– The methodology should identify the scope of the study in terms of the variables to be considered, the range of values that will be considered, and the sample sizes or methods used for determining appropriate sample sizes.

– The methodology should layout the order of work (although a timeline should be kept for the Plan of Work):

• Eg: literature survey and review, then pilot survey, then full survey, etc…

– There are many alternative research methods. We will classify and discuss these in depth in the later lectures.

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• Plan of Work:– This should map out the main tasks to be performed and their

scheduled start and finish time (and duration).– It should demonstrate to potential sponsors or supervisory

committees the feasibility of the study, time-wise– It should be used to monitor progress of work during the project– It should be flexible and include contingencies, since things don’t

happen exactly as planned.– It can also show the main resources (especially personnel) involved

in each task– A Gantt Chart is a good way of capturing and visualizing this

information, but written explanation should accompany this.– Eg:

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Year 1 Semesters: Year 2 Semesters: Year 3 Semesters:

Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer

Fall

Initial literature review: GAs, a-life models, and

ANNs

Continuing review of literature

Company/site data collection: characterizing the real-life

problem and its environment.

Development of the framework of the a-life model.

GA-based evolution of the decision-making subsystems: ANN-based

-ditto- using

alternative devices: Eg: rule-

based classifiers

Evaluation of the performance of the

a-life models

Evaluation of alterna

tive etc

Modification and

redevelopment of the a-life model, as required

Final evaluation of the a-life model

Interim Report &

conference publication of concept

Interim Report & publication of initial

findings

Final Report & authoring of refereed

journal articles

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• Deliverables:– Many research proposals require a list of the outputs from the research:

• Typically, this has been for more applied research that generates products

• Eg: a set of guidelines and charts for selecting an appropriate thickness for insulation in different regions of the country

• However, even more fundamental research proposals may be required to include deliverables:

• Eg: submission of an article to a leading journal in the field• Eg; the organization and delivery of a workshop on the findings of the

research– Implicit deliverables for a MSBC or PhD proposal are:

• A thesis or dissertation

• and often, though not always, one or more journal papers (this provides validation of your work)