1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging...

73
1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features • Knock-out and knock-in features • Averaging feature • Lookback feature • Reset and shout feature • Chooser feature • Credit derivatives • Volatility trading and products

Transcript of 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging...

Page 1: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

1

Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features

• Knock-out and knock-in features

• Averaging feature

• Lookback feature

• Reset and shout feature

• Chooser feature

• Credit derivatives

• Volatility trading and products

Page 2: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

2

Path dependent feature

The payoff of the option contract depends on the realization of the asset price within the whole life or part of the life of the option.

asset price

timeTt0

Page 3: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

3

Most common types of path dependent options

Option is knocked out or activated when the asset price breaches some threshold value Barrier Options.

Average value of the asset prices over a certain period isused as the strike Asian Options.

The strike price is determined by the realized maximum value of the asset price over a certain period Lookback Options.

Page 4: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

4

The market for exotic options

Development of exotic products

• increased flexibility for risk transfer and hedging

• highly structured expression of expectation of asset

price movements

• facilitation of trading in new risk dimension such as the

correlation between key financial variables

Modest volumes of trading and a relative lack of liquidity. These are associated with the difficulty in pricing, hedging / replicating (due to complex risk profiles).

Page 5: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

5

Knock-in and Knock-out

Extinguished or activated upon achievement of relevant asset price level.

asset price

up-barrier barrier level

timeknock-out

Page 6: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

6

Features

* barrier periods may cover only part of the option’s life* discretely monitored* can be in both European and American exercise format* barrier variable other than the underlying asset price* two-sided barriers (up-down) and sequential breaching* rebate may be paid upon knock out

Advantage

To achieve savings in premium; no need to pay for states believed to be unlikely to occur.

Page 7: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

7

delta:

gamma:

it is typically positive (for a call) but it becomesnegative as it approaches the barrier

demonstrate very high gamma when the asset priceis close to barrier

vega: usually higher than the non-barrier counterpart

theta: pattern of time decay is not smooth, with sharp discontinuity when close to barrier

Page 8: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

8

Hedging difficulties circuit breaker effect upon knock out

Market manipulation near barrier to trigger knock-out. “Soros (1995) knock-out options relate to ordinary options the way crack relates to cocaine.”

Page 9: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

9

More complex versions of barrier options

• The option could have two barrier levels (double barriers), one above the and below the current level of the index. The knockout condition then be (i) touching either one, or (ii) sequential breaching.

• The barrier level could be based on another market (external barrier), say, the knock out of FTSE-100 option could be subject to the S&P 500 trading below a given level.

• The barrier condition could exist for only part of the life time of the option (partial barriers).

• Variable rather than a fixed barrier.

Page 10: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

10

Down-and-out call option

The call option is nullified when the asset price hits a down barrier Bduring the life of the option. The price formula for the continuouslymonitored down-and-out barrier call option is given by

,),(),(21 2

2

S

Bc

B

SScSc EE

r

where cE(S, ) is the price of the vanilla counterpart.

.inanddownoutanddownvanilla ccc

The second term then gives the price of the

corresponding down-and-in call option.

,21 2

2

S

Bc

B

SE

r

Page 11: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

11

Difficulties with dynamic hedging of barrier securities

1. The underlying asset as the dynamic hedging instrument is insensitive to changes in volatility. Option’s vega for barrier securities is usually high. Vega risk is unhedgeable except with other option-like securities.

2. Barrier options often have regions of high gamma, which greatly increase the hedging error associated with dynamic

hedging.

Page 12: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

12

Digital options (binary)

• A pre-determined fixed payout if the option is at- or in-the-money (also called all-or-nothing, bet or lottery options). Primarily European in style.

• Suited to markets where support and resistance levels are found, say, in the currency and bond markets. If an investor believes that a currency will not fall below a certain level, he can write a digital option to earn premium.

• Writer faced with greater hedging challenges due to large gamma.

Page 13: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

13

Note with embedded options

Customer pays notional of 100 today. We pay a coupon of x% (p.a.) in 3 months. If spot price is above 100 at the end of the 3-month period, then the deal is terminated and we pay back 100 to him on that date.

If the spot price is below 100, then a further coupon of 2% (p.a.) is paid in 6 months. The final redemption amount that the customer would obtain is given by

Customer gets notional S/100 if S < 90 or S > 110,otherwise he would get back the notional.

Page 14: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

14

The problem is to work out x%.

The interesting thing is the barrier condition at the end of 3 months. The final payout for the customer can be decomposed into a combination of call option, put option and binary options.

Page 15: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

15

Asian options

Asian options are averaging options whose terminal payoff depends onsome form of average.

Arithmetic averaging =

Geometric averaging =

n

iiS

n 1

1

nn

iiS

1

1

• Used by investors who are interested to hedge against the averageprice of a commodity over a period, rather than the end-of-the-period pricee.g. Japanese exporters to the US, who are receiving stream of US

dollar receipts over certain period, may use the Asian currencyoption to hedge the currency exposure.

To minimize the impact of abnormal price fluctuation near expiration(avoid the price manipulation near expiration, in particular for thinly-traded commodities).

Page 16: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

16

Asian Averaging OptionsAverage rate call: 0,max AVE XS

Average strike call: 0,max AVESST

MM

M

ii tStStSStS

MS

1

21AVE1

AVE )()()(or )(1

Uses

Exposure as a future series of asset prices e.g. cost of production is sensitive to the prices of raw material.

To prevent abnormal price manipulation on expirationdate, arising perhaps from a lack of depth in the market.

Page 17: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

17

Fixed strike Asian call: )0,max( XA

The option premium is expected to be lower than that of the vanillaoptions since the volatility of the average asset value should be lower than that of the terminal asset value;

The delta and gamma tend to zero as time is approaching expiration.

Floating strike Asian call: )0,max( AST

• Set the strike to the average of prices over a period so as to avoid the exposure of market. The delta and gamma tend to that of the vanilla option withidentical expiration data and strike equal to the average.•

Page 18: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

18

Shout options • The payoff upon shouting is another derivative with contractual specifications different from the original derivative.

• The embedded shout feature in a call option allows its holder to lock in the profit via shouting while retaining the right to benefit from any future upside move in the payoff.

The terminal payoff of a shout call option is the form:

C = max(ST – K, L – K, 0),

where K is the strike price, ST is the terminal stock price and L

is some ladder value installed at shouting.

The ladder value L is set to be the prevailing stock price St at

the shouting instant t.

Page 19: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

19

Shout feature

• The terminal payoff is guaranteed to be at least St – K.

• Obviously, the holder should shout only when St > K.

• The number of shouting rights throughout the life of the contract may be more than one.

• Some other restrictions may apply, say, the shouting instants are limited to some predetermined times.

 

Page 20: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

20

Reset feature

This is the right given to the derivative holder to reset certain contract specifications in the original derivative.

Strike reset – strike reset to a lower strike for a call or to a higher strike for a put.

Maturity reset – extension of the maturity of a bond.

Constraints on reset

• A limit to the magnitude of the strike adjustment.

• Triggered by underlying price reaching certain level.

• Reset allowed only on specific dates or limited period.

Page 21: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

21

Example - Reset strike put option

• The strike price is reset to the prevailing stock price upon shouting.

The shouting payoff is given by

max(St – ST, 0) = max(ST – K, St – K, 0) – (ST – K).

• The shout call option can be replicated by the reset strike put and a forward contract

(put-call parity relation).

Page 22: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

22

Example – Extendible bonds

• Gives the holder the option of extending the term of the instrument, on or before a fixed date at a

pre-determined coupon rate.

The 5.5 percent Government of Canada extendible bond was issued on October 1, 1959. It was exchangeable on or before June 1, 1962 into 5.5 percent bonds maturing October 1, 1975.

The three year initial bond was extendible into a 16 year bond at the holder’s option.

Page 23: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

23

Example - S&P 500 index bear warrants with a three-month reset

• Launched in the Chicago Board Options Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (late 1996).

• These warrants are index puts, where the strike price is automatically reset to the prevailing index value if the index value is higher than the original strike price on the reset date three months after the original issuance.

Page 24: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

24

Lookback options

Reset the strike to the realized lowest or highest market price during the lookback period. Payoff of the following forms:

etc. ,0, ,0,max ,0,max ],0[min

],0[max

],0[max

],0[max XSSSSXS TT

TTT

Partial lookbacks: selects a subset of the period from commencement to expiry as the lookback period. The premium increases with the length of the lookback period.

Strike bonus rollover hedging strategyFor the floating strike put, whenever a new maximum asset price is realized, replace the old put with a new put that has strike equal to the new maximum.

Page 25: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

25

Uses of lookback options

Offshore debt or equity investments where the investor wishes to achieve the best currency over the relevant time period and wishes to uncouple the timing of the investment from the currency rate setting.

Perspectives of holder

• Most advantageous if the realized volatility of the underlying asset price is higher that the implied volatility.

• There will be a sharp move in the underlying asset price but is unsure when and for how long the price will move.

Page 26: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

26

Callable Options

Consider a 3-year call option with a fixed strike. After the first year and at every 6-month interval thereafter, the issuer hasthe right to call back the option. Upon calling, the holder is forced to exercise at the intrinsic value, or if the option is out-of-the-money, then the call option is terminated withoutany payment.

Questions:-1. Explain why the price of this callable option lies within

the prices of the 1-year and 3-year non-callable counterparts.

2. What is the impact of dividend yield on the optimal callingpolicy of this callable option?

Page 27: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

27

Range notes

Provide investors with an above market coupon, but they must agreeto forego coupon payments when LIBOR falls outside prescribed bounds.

ExampleSuppose the market coupon for a conventional note is 6.5%.A range note pays 8.8% coupon semi-annually conditional onthe 6-month LIBOR remains within 4.5-7.5%. The true coupon is computed on a daily accrual basis (coupons are counted on those dates when the LIBOR falls within the range).

Page 28: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

28

• The investor loses coupon of rate 8.8% when LIBOR either exceeds 7.5% or below 4.5%. This is like the payoff of a digital cap and digital floor, respectively. This is called the “corridor risk”.

• In essence, the investor shorts these two options in return for a higher coupon rate – selling volatility.

• Investors have a strong view that rates will stay within a range and often they are structured to reflect an investor’s view that is contrary to a particular forward rate curve.

Corridor risk

Page 29: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

29

Example

The Kingdom of Sweden issued dollar-denominated corridor Eurobonds in January 1994. The 200 million 2-year Sweden deal, for example, paid out Libor + 75 bp when the 3-month Libor fell between the following rates:

07/02/94 – 07/08/94; 3% to 4%

07/08/94 – 07/02/95; 3% to 4.75%

07/02/95 – 07/08/95; 3% to 5.50%

07/08/95 – 07/02/96; 3% to 6%

The principal is fully protected, and the coupon is sacrificed only on days in which the 3-month Libor is outside the range.

Page 30: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

30

Zero coupon accrual notes

A hybrid version of a zero-coupon bond and an accrual note.

• In a plain vanilla accrual note, an investor receives a coupon based on the number of days that a fixed income benchmark rate stays within a pre-specified range.

• In a zero coupon bond, the investor knows at the time of purchase the bond’s maturity and effective yield.

The zero coupon accrual note investor buys the note at a discount. Instead of a set maturity, there is a maximum maturity date. The note’s payout is capped at par. When the total return of the principal and the accrued coupon reaches par, the zero coupon accrual note matures.

 

Page 31: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

31

Uses of zero coupon accrual notes

In a rising interest rate environment, the maturity of the notes accelerates. Fixed income investors are thus able to reinvest their capital at the prevailing higher rates.

• The inherent high convexity built into the zero coupon accrual notes benefits the buyer greatly by reducing the duration of the note as rates rise while lengthening duration as rates fall.

• Unlike range notes where ranges are specified, this product allows investors to bet on a general move up in rates rather than the actual move in basis points.  

Page 32: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

32

Example of zero coupon accrual note

A 3-year zero coupon accrual note linked to 6-month LIBOR sold at a price of 90 and a minimum annualized coupon of 2.5% (minimum coupon feature).

• If the 6-month LIBOR does not rise substantially during the 3-year life of the note, the note will mature in 3 years.

Page 33: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

33

Callable Range Accrual Note

• The call options enable the investor to enhance his yield, compared to a standard Range Accrual Note. Even if the Note is called on the first call date, he would have benefited from a high coupon compared to the market conditions.

• The Range Accrual structures are very popular with investors, especially when the implied volatility is high compared to the historical movements of the underlying index.

• The Note will pay a higher coupon if, based on the forward curve, there is a high probability that the reference index will fix outside the range.

The range can be tailored to match investor’s view on interest rates.

Page 34: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

34

• The graph below shows the forward distribution of the 6m Euribor as well as the upper barriers of the structure, and thus the probability for the index to fix within the range according to market conditions at the time of pricing.

Page 35: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

35

Risk de-aggregationCredit derivatives are over-the-counter contracts which allow the isolation and management of credit risk from all other components of risk.

interestrate risk

volatilityrisk

FXrisk

creditrisk

Off-balance sheet financial instruments that allow end users to buy and sell credit risk.

Page 36: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

36

Product nature of credit derivatives

Payoff depends on the occurrence of a credit event:

• default: any non-compliance with the exact specification of a contract• price or yield change of a bond• credit rating downgrade

In the case of the default of a bond, any loss in value from the default date until the pricing date (a specified time period after the default date) becomes the value of the underlying.

Credit derivatives can take the form of swaps or options.1. In a credit swap, one party pays a fixed cashflow stream and the other party

pays only if a credit event occurs (or payment based on yield spread).2. A credit option would require the upfront premium and would pay off based

on the occurrence of a credit event (or on a yield spread).

Pricing a credit derivative is not straightforward since modeling the stochastic process driving the underlying’s credit risk is challenging.

Page 37: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

37

Uses of credit derivatives

To hedge against an increase in risk, or to gain exposure to a marketwith higher risk.

• Creating customized exposure; e.g. gain exposure to Russian debts(rated below the manager’s criteria per her investment mandate).

• Leveraging credit views - restructuring the risk/return profiles ofcredits.

• Allow investors to eliminate credit risk from other risks in the investment instruments.

Credit derivatives allow investors to take advantage of relative valueopportunities by exploiting inefficiencies in the credit markets.

Page 38: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

38

Credit spread derivatives

• Options, forwards and swaps that are linked to credit spread.

Credit spread = yield of debt – risk-free or reference yield

• Investors gain protection from any degree of credit deteriorationresulting from ratings downgrade, poor earnings etc.(This is unlike default swaps which provide protection against defaults and other clearly defined ‘credit events’.)

Page 39: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

39

if spread > strike spread at maturity

Credit spread optionUse credit spread option to• hedge against rising credit spreads;• target the future purchase of assets at favorable prices.

ExampleAn investor wishing to buy a bond at a price below market can sella credit spread option to target the purchase of that bond if the creditspread increases (earn the premium if spread narrows).

investor counterparty

at trade date, option premium

Payout = notional (final spread – strike spread)+

Page 40: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

40

Example The holder of the put has the right to sell the bond at the strike spread(say, spread = 330 bps) when the spread moves above the strike spread(corresponding to drop of bond price).

May be used to target the future purchase of an asset at a favorable price.

The investor intends to purchase the bond below current market price(300 bps above US Treasury) in the next year and has targeted a forward purchase price corresponding to a spread of 350 bps. She sells for 20 bps a one-year credit spread put struck at 330 bps to a counterparty (currently holding the bond and would like to protectthe market price against spread above 330 bps).

• spread < 330; investor earns the premium• spread > 330; investor acquires the bond at 350 bps

Page 41: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

41

Implied volatilities

The only unobservable parameter in the Black-Scholes formulas is thevolatility value, . By inputting an estimated volatility value, we obtainthe option price. Conversely, given the market price of an option, we can back out the corresponding Black-Scholes implied volatility.

• Several implied volatility values obtained simultaneously from different options (varying strikes and maturities) on the same underlying asset provide the market view about the volatility ofthe stochastic movement of the asset price.

Page 42: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

42

Black wrote

“It is rare that the value of an option comes out exactly equal to the price at which

it trades on the exchange.

There are several reasons for a difference between the value and price:

(i) we may have the correct value;

(ii) the option price may be out of line;

(iii) we may have used the wrong inputs to the Black-Scholes formula;

(iv) the Black-Scholes may be wrong.

Normally, all reasons play a part in explaining a difference between value and price.”

The market prices are correct (in the presence of sufficient liquidity) and one should build a model around the prices.

Page 43: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

43

Different volatilities for different strike prices

Stock options – higher volatilities at lower strike and lower volatilities at higher strikes

• In a falling market, everyone needs out-of the-money puts for insurance and will pay a higher price for the lower strike options.

• Equity fund managers are long billions of dollars worth of stock and writing out-of-the-money call options against their holdings as a way of generating extra income.

Page 44: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

44

Commodity options – higher volatilities at higher strike and lower volatilities at lower strikes

• Government intervention – no worry about a large price fall. Speculators are tempted to sell puts aggressively.

• Risk of shortages – no upper limit on the price. Demand for higher strike price options.

Page 45: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

45

Volatility smiles

Interest rate options – at-the-money option has a low volatility and either side the volatility is higher

Propensity to sell at-the-money options and buy out-of-the-money options.

For example, in the butterfly strategy, two at-the-money options are sold and one-out-of the-money option and one in-the-money option are bought.

Page 46: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

46

Different volatilities across time

Supply and demandWhen markets are very quiet, the implied volatilities of the near month options are generally lower than those of the far month. When markets are very volatile, the reverse is generally true.

• In very volatile markets, everyone wants or needs to load with gamma. Near-dated options provide the most gamma and the resultant buying pressure will have the effect of pushing prices up.

• In quiet markets no one wants a portfolio long of near dated options.

Use of a two-dimensional implied volatility matrix.

Page 47: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

47

Floating volatilities

As the stock price moves, the entire skewed profile also moves. This is because what was out-of-the-money option now becomes in-the-money option.

ExampleIf an investor is long a given option and believes that the market will price it at a lower volatility at a higher stock price then he may adjust the delta downwards (since the price appreciation is lower with a lower volatility).

Page 48: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

48

Terminal asset price distribution as implied by market data

In real markets, it is common thatwhen the asset price is high, volatility tends to decrease, makingit less probable for high asset priceto be realized. When the assetprice is low, volatility tends toincrease, so it is more probablethat the asset price plummets further down.

probability

S

solid curve: distribution as implied bymarket data

dotted curve: theoretical lognormal distribution

Page 49: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

49

Extreme events in stock price movementsProbability distributions of stock market returns have typically been estimated from historical time series. Unfortunately, common hypotheses may not capture the probability of extreme events, and the events of interest are rare and may not be present in the historical record.

Examples

1. On October 19, 1987, the two-month S & P 500 futures price fell 29%.Under the lognormal hypothesis of annualized volatility of 20%, thisis a 27 standard deviation event with probability 10160 (virtuallyimpossible).

2. On October 13, 1989, the S & P 500 index fell about 6%, a 5 standard deviation event. Under the maintained hypothesis, this should occur only once in 14,756 years.

Page 50: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

50

The market behavior of higher probability of large decline in stock index is better known to practitioners after Oct., 87 market crash.

• The market price ofout-of-the-money call (puts)has become cheaper (moreexpensive) than the Black-Scholes theoretical price afterthe 1987 crash because ofthe thickening (thinning)of the left-end (right-end) tail of the terminal assetprice distribution. 1.0

Impliedvolatility

X/S

A typical pattern of post-crash smile.The implied volatility drops against X/S.

Page 51: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

51

Theoretical and implied volatilitiesTheoretical volatility

• When valuing an option, a trader’s theoretical volatility will be a critical input in a pricing model.

• The strategy of trading on theoretical volatilities involves holding the option until expiry – common strategy of option users.

Market implied volatility

• Volatility extrapolated from, or implied by, an option price.

• Trading on implied volatility involves implementing and reversing positions over short time periods.

Page 52: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

52

It is always necessary to provide prices of European options of strikesand expirations that may not appear in the market. These prices aresupplied by means of interpolation (within data range) or extrapolation(outside data range).

• A smooth curve is plottedthrough the data points (shown as “crosses”). Theestimated implied volatilityat a given strike can be read off from the dotted point on the curve.

Implied volatility

X/S

Page 53: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

53

Time dependent volatility

• Given the market prices of European call options with different maturities (all have the strike prices of 105, current asset price is106.25 and short-term interest rate over the period is flat at 5.6%).

maturity 1-month 3-month 7-monthValue 3.50 5.76 7.97

Implied volatility 21.2% 30.5% 19.4%

• Extend the assumption of constant volatility to allow for timedependent deterministic volatility (t).

Page 54: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

54

The Black-Scholes formulas remain valid for time dependent volatility

except that is used to replace .

Tt d

tT 2)(

1

How to obtain (t) given the implied volatility measured at time t of a European option expiring at time t. Now

t

timp dtt

tt 2)(1

),(

Page 55: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

55

so that

).)(,()( 22 ttttd imptt

Differentiate with respect to t, we obtain

.),(2

),()(2),()( 2

t

ttttttttt imp

impimp

Page 56: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

56

Practically, we do not have a continuous differentiable implied volatilityfunction , but rather implied volatilities are available at discrete instants ti. Suppose we assume (t) to be piecewise constant over (ti1, ti), then

),( ttimp

, ),)(()(

),()(),()(

1122

12

12

1 iiiitt

iimpiiimpi

ttttttd

tttttttt

i

i

. ,),()(),()(

)( 11

12

112

iiii

iimpiiimpi ttttt

ttttttttt

Page 57: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

57

Implied volatility tree

An implied volatility tree is a binomial tree that prices a given set of input options correctly.

The implied volatility trees are used:

1. To compute hedge parameters that make sense for the given optionmarket.

2. To price non-standard and exotic options.

The implied volatility tree model uses all of the implied volatilities ofoptions on the underlying - it deduces the best flexible binomial tree(or trinomial tree) based on all the implied volatilities.

Page 58: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

58

Volatility trading

Trading based on taking a view on market volatility different from that contained in the current set of market prices. This is different from position trading where the trades are based on the expectationof where prices are going.

ExampleA certain stock is trading at $100. Two one-year calls with strikes of $100 and $110 priced at $5.98 and $5.04, respectively.These prices imply volatilities of 15% and 22%, respectively.

Strategy Long the cheap $100 strike option and short of the expensive $110 strike option.

Page 59: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

59

Trading volatilities

Short term players

• Sensitive to the market prices of the options.

• This is more of a speculative trading strategy, applicable only to liquid options markets, where the cost of trading positions is small relative to spreads captured in implied volatility moves.

Long term players

• If a trader’s theoretical value is higher than the implied volatility, he would buy options since he believes they are undervalued.

Page 60: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

60

Page 61: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

61

Market data: Stock price = $99, call price = $5.46, delta = 0.5

portfolio A: 50 shares of stock;

portfolio B: 100 call options;

550,4$0 tA

546$0 tB

solid line: option portfolio

dotted line: stock portfolio 87 99

600

stock price

profit

Both portfolios are delta equivalent.Since the option price curve is concave upward, the call option portfolioalways outperforms the delta equivalent stock portfolio.

Page 62: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

62

Long volatility trade

Whichever way the stock price moves, the holder always make a profit. This is the essence of the long volatility trade.

• By rehedging, one is forced to sell in rising markets and buy in falling market – trade in the opposite direction of the market trend.

Where is the catch

• The option loses time value throughout the life of the option.

Long volatility strategyCompetition between the original price paid and the subsequent volatility experienced. If the price paid is low and the volatility is high, the long volatility player will win overall.

Page 63: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

63

Vega risk

Vega is defined as the change in option price caused by a change in volatility of 1%.

• Shorter dated options are less sensitive of volatility inputs. That is, vega decreases with time.

• Near-the-money options are most sensitive and deep out-of-the-money options are less sensitive.

Page 64: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

64

Gamma trading and vega trading

Time decay profit: 22

y) volatilitimplied(2

price)(asset gammaposition

Gamma trading Net profit from realized volatility

]y) volatilitimplied(y) volatilitrealized[(2

price)(asset gammaposition 22

2

Vega trading Net profit from changes in implied volatility

y) volatilitimplied originaly volatilitimpliedcurrent (vega

Page 65: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

65

Maturity and moneyness

The ability of individual derivative positions to realize profits fromgamma and vega trading is crucially dependent on the average maturity and degree of moneyness of the derivatives book.

• For at-the-money options, long maturity options display high vegaand low gamma; short maturity options display low vega and highgamma.

For out-of-the-money options, long maturity options display lowervega and high gamma, and short maturity options higher vega and lower gamma.

Page 66: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

66

Balance between gamma-based and vega-based volatility trading

1. If a trader desires high gamma but zero vega exposure, thena suitable position would be a large quantity of short

maturity at-the-money options hedged with a small quantity of long maturity at-the-money options.

2. If a trader desires high vega but zero gamma exposure, then a suitable position would be a large quantity of long

maturity at-the-money options hedged with a small quantity of short maturity at-the-money options.

Page 67: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

67

Long gamma – holding a straddle

A trader believes that the current implied volatility of at-the-money options is lower than he expects to be realized. He may buy a straddle: a combination of an at-the-money call and an at-the-money put to acquire a delta neutral, gamma position.

Page 68: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

68

Trading mispriced options

If options are offered at an implied volatility of 15% and a manager believes that the real volatility is going to be higher in the future, say, 25%. How to profit?

He should set up a delta neutral portfolio.

If his prediction is correct, he can profit in two ways:1. The rest of the market begin to agree with him, then the

option price will mark up. He gains by unwinding his option position.

2. The market continues to price options at 15%,. He keeps the portfolio delta neutral (delta calculated based on market volatility). His rehedging profit will exceed the time decay losses.

Page 69: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

69

Variance swap contract

The terminal payoff of a variance swap contract is

notional (v strike)

where v is the realized annualized variance of the logarithm of the dailyreturn of the stock.

1

0

2

1ln1

n

i i

i

S

S

n

Nv

Page 70: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

70

Variance swap contract (cont’d)

where n = number of trading days to maturityN = number of trading days in one year (252) = realized average of the logarithm of daily return of the stock

.ln1

ln1

0

1

0

1

S

S

nS

S

nn

n

i i

i

Page 71: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

71

• The payoff could be positive or negative.

• The objective is to find the fair price of the strike, as indicated by theprices of various instruments on the trade date, such that the initial value of the swap is zero.

Observe that

.

lnln

1

2SS 1i1i

nnn

Nv ii SS

Page 72: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

72

Volatility Note

• A Volatility Note is an interest rate investment product, which pays a coupon linked to the absolute variation of an Index over a period of time.

• The coupon is equal to Cn = G Abs (Indexn – Indexn1).

• The Volatility Note represents a natural hedging solution to long-term bond investors, such as insurance companies, whose portfolios bear natural negative volatility:

(a) if rates rise, the value of their existing portfolio of fixed rate vanilla and callable bonds will fall,

(b) if rates fall they will be unable to reinvest any income at a

reasonable level.

Page 73: 1 Part 3 - Derivatives with exotic embedded features Knock-out and knock-in features Averaging feature Lookback feature Reset and shout feature Chooser.

73

Opportunity

• In a volatile market, the volatility bond investor takes advantage of any movements of the Index, without having to take a view on the direction of the market.