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Office of the Chief EconomistOffice of the Chief Economist

Global economic growthThe outlook for the Australian resources sector

Mark Cully

APPEA Tax and Commercial Conference29 October 2015

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Commodity pricesHave come down substantially from their peaks

Sources: IHS (2015); Platts (2015); Bloomberg (2015).

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High oil prices have tended to coincide with global economic and financial stresses World crude oil expenditure as a share of GDP

Sources: IMF (2015) World crude oil expenditure estimated from world consumption at annual average market prices from BP Energy Statistics, World GDP

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The resources boomThe sector is transitioning through to the production phase, index 2012–13=100

Sources: ABS (2015) cat. 5206; ABS (2015) cat. 5625; ABS (2015) cat. 5368.

Terms of trade

Investment

Export earnings

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Emerging economies to drive electricity consumption growthElectricity use and economic development

Sources: World Bank (2015) World Development Indicators; International Energy Agency (2014), World Energy Balances.

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Demand for every primary energy source is forecast to growWorld primary energy demand forecasts (IEA New Policies Scenario)

Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (2014)

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The ‘golden age of gas’ will depend on future policies and pricesIEA primary natural gas demand forecasts

Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (2014)

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The potential volatility of LNG supply exceeds total Victorian demandForecast gas demand in eastern Australia

Sources: AEMO (2014) Department of Industry, Innovation and Science

Due to the scale of exports, small variations in LNG production can have a significant impact on the availability of production into the domestic market.

industry.gov.au

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industry.gov.au

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industry.gov.au

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Mark Cully

chiefeconomist@industry.gov.au (02) 6102 8180

Department of Industry, Innovation and ScienceChief Economist

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