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National UnifiedOperational Prediction Capability

Status Brief

NUOPC Tiger Team Steven Payne,

Mark Surmeier, Fred Toepfer

October 16, 2007

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Status

The primary mission of the NUOPC is to enable a Tri-Agency global atmospheric ensemble system, including the design standards, required research and development, operational implementation, dissemination and evaluation.

Decision approved to implement NUOPC Phase I (10/9)• Establish management team and interim committees• Initiate Coordination meetings

– Common model infrastructure and standards– Standard transition process – Unified ensemble operation CONOPS

• Provide detailed impact and cost assessment– Requires decision on standards, code conversion, operations

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Background• Oct 05: Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary NWP• Feb 06: Workshop investigated potential for increased collaboration

– Recommended review of NUOPC alternatives• May 06: Tri-Agency memo established TT to analyze alternatives for increased

collaboration with the following goals:– Accelerating improvements in operational performance– Creating opportunities for a more focused National research effort– Leveraging scarce resources

• Aug 06: TT defined the alternatives and developed AoA– Focused on next-generation systems for global numerical weather

prediction allowing for possible later expansion into other areas of numerical prediction.

• Jan 07: Tri-agency selected Alternative 2 -- “Coordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations”

• Mar 07: Initiated working groups to define Management Plan, Concept of Operations, Implementation Plan, ROM Costs for phased approach

• Sep 07: Review and approval of NUOPC documentation and approach.• Oct 07: Approval to initiate Phase 1.

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Focused

R & D

Developmental Test Center

-

Analysis--------------

Other

Forecast

Systems

Physics(1,2,3)

ESMF Utilities

(clock, error handling, etc)

Post processor & Product Generator

Verification

Resolution change

ESMF Superstructure

(component definitions, communications, etc

Multi-component ensemble

+

Stochastic forcing

Coupler

Dynamics(1,2)

Application Driver

NUOPC Component System

Vision: A National Global Modeling System

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NUOPC Vision (2015)

• A National System with a Tri-Agency commitment to address common requirements

• Multi-component system with interoperable components built upon common standards and a framework such as the ESMF

• Managed ensemble diversity – significantly improve forecast accuracy – quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty

• Joint ensemble – to produce most probable forecast e.g.high impact weather– Mission Specific ensemble products

• Drive high-resolution regional/local predictions • Drive other down stream models

• Establish a national global NWP research agenda to accelerate development and transition

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NUOPC DEFINED - 2015

• NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization leading to a unified global modeling system with:– Common infrastructure, coding standards, metrics, transition processes

– to the degree required to share technology and eliminate unnecessary duplication

– Common development and implementation of ESMF– Cooperation and coordination at the technology level– Common operational global ensemble and post processing by design– Coordinated research needs representing National global modeling

research requirements– Developmental test support and focused research seed money to

accelerate transition of critical technology• NUOPC is not:

– An R&D or acquisition program– A unified management system for operations or acquisition– A unification of agency missions

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National Need for Improved Capability• Increasing cost of natural disasters

– Population density, location, value of property, violence of storms – same storm, ten times the cost of a few years ago

– Protection of lives and property• Increasing sensitivity of military operations to

environmental conditions– Global communications, precise weaponry, political cost of

collateral damage– National defense, Homeland security

• Increasing economic value of weather information – Transportation, agriculture, energy, business disruption– Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS)

• Increasing cost of mitigation and evacuation– Cost to evacuate for Hurricane Rita

• Increasing cost of fuel for ships and aircraft• Increasing public awareness and intolerance for failure

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Potential Benefits• Establish a National System to focus on National Needs

– Operations community and Research community working toward a common agenda– Improved ability to compete with other national systems (European, Chinese,

Japanese, etc.)• More efficient use of shared resources

– Model developers– Computing resources– Model architecture and software configuration management personnel– Fewer personnel to support external development – A more robust National ensemble forecast program

• Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability

– Lives saved by earlier implementation of improvements, reduced hurricane warning area, fuel saved, reduced damage.

• Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications (ocean, aerosol, cloud, etc.) to meet unique mission requirements (e.g. five-day hurricane track forecast, precise cloud-cover prediction)

• Better operational backup through standardization and shared products• Enhanced research coordination;

– Ability to entrain national talent with tools to quickly move research to operations – Access to larger national meso-scale development pool to address physics problems– Reduced duplication of R&D efforts and better utilized research dollars– R&D transition path into each Agency’s operation with common model architecture

• Answers GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations for "more jointness" and less duplication among agencies

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How do we build a truly National global numerical prediction system?

• Provide coordinated requirements list?• Provide effective transition path for new

research and development?• Facilitate agreement on interoperable

architecture?• Provide common metrics?• Provide mechanisms for developmental testing

using operational system equivalents (DTC? Expanded visiting scientist program?)

• Provide fora for focused discussion of GNWP research?

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Implementation Strategy

• Establish Management Structure• Establish Common Model Architecture (CMA) and

standards• Initiate Common Support Infrastructure and capabilities –

as appropriate• Begin necessary Software conversion to CMA• Identify the common technology requirements• Define National Research Agenda, Focused Research

(as appropriate) and Begin deployment of Research infrastructure to accelerate transition to operations.

• Align transition to operation processes• NAEFS Prototyping and Deployment• Evolve to next-generation system – Target FOC 2015

Building the Next-Generation Global Modeling System - Together

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NUOPC cost-benefits•Acceleration of existing investment

–Accelerates forecast improvement–Leverages existing investments

•Cost avoidance–Improved extreme event warning capability–Hurricane evacuation–General aviation safety–Protection of military assets

•Entrainment of national effort–Increased NASA participation–FAA/NextGen support to NUOPC–Single target for S&T organizations (NSF, ONR, NCAR, etc.)

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NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II FOC

Beta Test Phase III

STAFFING

CODE CONV.

MGMT REPORTG MOA

INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION

OPERATIONS

OUTREACH

MAINTAIN

Full Staff

Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC

ENS OPS TESTNAEFS OPSCOMMS, IA, etc.CONOPS, Budget

DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS

ESG BRIEF

PROGRAM REVIEW MTG

EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

FOC

Quarterly Updates to Principals

STANDARDS

PARTICIPATION

TT PM, TEMPS

REVISIT PDD/MOA

IOC-2IOC-1

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NUOPC Cost Schedule

FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Prelim Phase I

Implementation Phase II FOC

Beta Test Phase III

STAFFING & COORD.

CODE CONV.

TOTAL COST/y

INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION

OPERATIONS

RSCH COORD.

MAINTAIN

Full StaffPM, tempsTT

Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC

ENS OPS TESTNAEFS OPSCOMMS, IA, etc.CONOPS, Budget FOC

$1.0M $1.0M $3.1M $4.6M $5.6M $5.9M $6.7M $9.2M

$0.9M

$0.1M

$0.9M

$0.1M

$1.5M

$1.6M

$1.1M $1.3M

$0.6M $0.6M

$1.5M $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M $1.5M

$2.1M $2.1M $0.2M $0.3M

$2.6M

$0.3M

$1.3M

FOCUSED RSCH

$2.0M$1.5M$1.0M $2.5M

VSP, Lab & External Rsch

$1.0M $1.0M $1.0M $1.0M $1.0MESMF SUPPORT ESMF OWNERSHIP

IOC-1 IOC-2

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Backups

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PM/Interim PM• The Program Manager (PM) will be recruited through one of the following two

alternative methods: – Intergovernmental Personnel Act (IPA), funding to be equally shared by all three

agencies– Existing or new Federal employee designated from within one agency, cost

shared between agencies• Qualifications and Characteristics:

– Senior Executive Series (SES) level equivalent. Aligns with the National perspective/importance of NUOPC.

– Program Management expertise with strong general knowledge/experience in meteorology and numerical weather prediction.

– In-depth understanding of the scientific and technical processes necessary for development of models

– Knowledge of the Federal Planning, Programming, Budgeting and Execution (PPBE) process.

– Tactful leadership – PM will be required to balance three distinct agency requirements and programmatics, and lead the management team through a most likely difficult developmental period.

– Strong sense of the national imperative for NUOPC. – Capable of effectively representing NUOPC at the OMB/OSTP/Congressional

level.

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Cost Strategy

• Costs phased to increase affordability• Joint funding kept to a minimum

– Management– Common support capability as appropriate e.g. ESMF

Architecture – Common research Infrastructure (e.g. VTC, DTC)

• Joint funding increases incrementally as benefits accrue

• One-time costs (code conversion and ESMF Architecture Implementation) phased over 3 years to minimize disruption and negative impacts

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Approve Moving Ahead with NUOPC• Pro:

– Recommended course of action from two years of study and workshops

– Phase I carries minimal risk– Minimal $ cost to agencies, some disruption– Initiates Coordination meetings, sets standards– Less software conversion costs for models under development– Increases Tri-Agency coordination, prepares for full collaboration– Quantifies cost and impact– Continues momentum of two years of TT effort

• Con:– MOA not in place– DoD fiscal uncertainty– Political uncertainty of upcoming elections

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FY08 10 12 14 16

NUOPC

Status Quo

Cap

abil

ity

(Impacts all areas of prediction)

Projected Forecast Improvement Under NUOPC

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Cost Share Proposal• Shared costs (equal one-third shares to NOAA, AF, Navy)

• Management costs• Joint operating costs

• ESMF, DTC/VTC/VSP, Config Mgmnt, etc.

• Agency-specific costs (borne by each agency individually)• Communications• Hardware infrastructure• Information Assurance issues

• Code conversion costs – recommend equal thirds shares• Closely tied to common standards; true costs won’t be known until

after standards are set in FY08-09• NUOPC PM acts as chief engineer/cost arbitrator, recommends

“equitable” cost shares based on cost impacts to each agency; ESG accepts or modifies recommendation

• PM must show that over time he's keeping the total cost impact equitable to all sides, and minimizing the total cost impact