1 National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne...
Transcript of 1 National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne...
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National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)
Status Brief for ESMF
Steven Payne
December 17, 2008
NUOPC
Potential Benefits• A National System to focus on National Needs• Accelerated improvement of a National Weather
Operational Prediction Capability – Forecast Accuracy– Quantified Forecast uncertainty
• Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications
• Increased efficiency through use of shared resources• Better operational backup • Enhanced research coordination • Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG
recommendations
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NUOPC Update• 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary
operational NWP• 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected
coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area• 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for
NUOPC– Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007– Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and
Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84)• 2008 – Appointed Project Manager
– Executing NUOPC Phase I– ESG approved interim committee chairmen– Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008– Initiated interim committee process May, 2008
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NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II FOC
Beta Test Phase III
STAFFING
CODE CONV.
MGMT REPORTG MOA
INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION
OPERATIONS
OUTREACH
MAINTAIN
Full Staff
Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC
ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA
DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP
FOC
Quarterly Updates to Principals
STANDARDS
PARTICIPATION
TT PM, TEMPS
IOC-2IOC-1
PROTOTYPE OPS
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Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis
Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis
Navy(CNO N84)
RADM Gove
Navy(CNO N84)
RADM Gove
NOAA(Administrator)
VADM Lautenbacher
NOAA(Administrator)
VADM Lautenbacher
Executive Steering GroupExecutive Steering Group
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD
John ZapotocnyBrian Moore
John ZapotocnyBrian Moore
Kim CurrySteve PayneKim Curry
Steve Payne
Joel ClineJeremy Potter
Joel ClineJeremy Potter
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC)Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &
RDML David Titley (CNMOC)
Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &
Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)
TechnologyTransition Process
Marc Hidalgo
TechnologyTransition Process
Marc Hidalgo
AgencyLiaisonsAgencyLiaisons
InterimCommittees
InterimCommittees
CommonModel ArchitectureScott Sandgathe
CommonModel ArchitectureScott Sandgathe
UnifiedEnsemble Operations
Mike Clancy
UnifiedEnsemble Operations
Mike Clancy
NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
NUOPC Management Structure
Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove
LCDR Kurt Zegowitz
Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove
LCDR Kurt Zegowitz
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Expectations• NUOPC is an agreement between the three
operational production facilities to accelerate technological advances and improve efficiency through collaboration.
• Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway.
• A major objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.
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Interim Committees• Three designated committees:
– Common Model Architecture Committee – Technical Transition Process Committee – Unified Ensemble Operations Committee
• Potential additional panels include Technical Transition and Information Assurance.
• Interim Committees will be split into attending members and review members in order to reduce travel and impact on members and also address FACA concerns.
• Interim committees only operate during Phase I. Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance.
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Committee Membership• Chairman from NUOPC staff or
operational center• Primary input from operational centers,
agency R&D activities• Broad community participation via
coordination and review membership• Working level knowledge but able to
represent constituency• NUOPC staff responsible for meeting
minutes, draft reports, schedule
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Interim Committee MembershipCommittee Focus
Common Model Architecture Technical Transition Processes
Unified Ensemble Operations
Membership
Chairman Scott Sandgathe Marc Hidalgo Mike Clancy
Agency Rep Steve Payne
NUOPC staff William O’Connor Fran Bieker Paul Demmert
AFWA Dan Sedlacek Ken Smith Steve RuggTommy Sanders
FNMOC Jeff Lerner Mark Swenson Judy PavinaMike Sestak
NOAA Mark IredellTom Black
John Ward Zoltan TothTBD (Kyger)
NRL Jim DoyleMelinda Peng
Pat Phoebus Jim Hansen
ONR 1 Dan Eleuterio
OAR 1 Julian Wang
NCAR Cecelia Delucca Bob Gall
NASA Max Suarez
FAA 1 1
NSF 1
Other Fed (DOE, DOT, etc.) Lars Peter Riishojgaard (JCSDA) 2
TOTAL 13 12 12
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Common Model Architecture Committee
Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort.
• Agree to ESMF architecture, degree and detail of implementation.
• Agree to additional software or hardware standards required to promote interoperability.
• Minimize disruption to operational centers and existing development efforts.
• Estimate cost and time to implement.
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Committee Issues - CMA• Standard Model Architecture - ESMF
– How deep to implement?– How to resolve & align present NRL/EMC
approaches– NASA MAPL and European OASIS?
• Standard model structure• Unified coding standards (i,j,k, etc.)• Exchangeable model technology at
component level• Standard ensemble prediction infrastructure• Standard I/O interfaces• Standard model metadata• Cost & time to implement
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Technology Transition Process Committee
Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies.
• Define common operational needs and translate to common requirements
• Develop a common research agenda and direction• Develop the VTC/DTC/VSP CONOPS
– Funding, support, security, etc.
• Align agency processes to transition new technology to operations
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Committee Issues - TTP• DTC/VTC/VSP
– At center, at other site, multiple locations, virtual, what support, common metrics, etc., etc.
• Common research agenda (requirements, agenda, investment)– How do we get requirements from the three agencies? How to
we merge the list? How do we turn requirements into a research agenda? How do we get resource sponsors to sign up to fund agenda?
• Aligned transition process– What is important to align? How will it improve life?
• Info assurance– How do we guarantee code is not corrupt?– How do we meet agency code release requirements and still
give broad community access?
• Cost & time to implement
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Unified Ensemble Operations CommitteeTask: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept
(CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products.
• Identify unified ensemble operations requirements including:– Standard output format – Ensemble configuration– Product delivery schedule– Process for assembly and dissemination – Common post processing, if appropriate– Network security– Coordinated software update cycle– Data archival processes (who, what, where, how)– Communications, bandwidth and hardware acquisition
• Estimate cost and time to implement
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Committee Goals• Minimize operational center disruption• Achieve common architecture objectives while
sustaining developmental headway• Achieve full stakeholder support• Develop well-defined standards that will focus
research community participation and accelerate development
• Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology
• Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)
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Schedule & Deliverables
• Membership approved June-July 2008.
• Initial meetings summer 2008
• Draft final report for external coordination March 2009.
• Revised committee reports for Agency coordination May 2009.
• Internal Agency approval June 2009.
• ESG Approval August 2009.
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Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09
Phase I Tasks
Beg
in P
has
e I
I Im
ple
men
tati
on
IOC-1
PM & Staff Review
Interagency Review & Coord
Committee Tasks
Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approval Draft Standards Reports
Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS
PM & Staff integrate Committee task results
Review committees’ progress
Coord
NominateEstablish Committees
Committees/Panels work tasks Follow up
Apr 08
Sep 09
Committee Reports to PM & Staff
Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08