1 Money and Interest Rates MBA 774 Macroeconomics Class Notes – Part 2.
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Transcript of 1 Money and Interest Rates MBA 774 Macroeconomics Class Notes – Part 2.
1
Money and Interest Rates
MBA 774Macroeconomics
Class Notes – Part 2
2
What is Money?
• Medium of exchange– Allows transactions not based on barter– Avoids the need for a “double coincidence of
wants”
• Unit of account– Common measure of value for goods, services, and
contracts
• Store of value– Allows for transfer of wealth through time– Most liquid of all assets
3
Types of Money
• Pure Commodity– Scarce commodity is agreed on as “money”– For example: gold, silver, cattle, cigarettes
• Commodity Standard– Certificates representing claims on a commodity are
issued and used instead of the commodity itself– For example: the US was once on a “gold standard”
• Fiat Money– Money established by government decree– Fiat money has no intrinsic value
4
US Measures of Money
• Currency = Bills and coins outside U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of depository institutions
• M1 = Currency plus travelers’ checks, demand deposits, other checkable deposits
• M2 = M1 plus savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, retail money market mutual funds, and overnight repurchase agreements
• M3 = M2 plus large-denomination time deposits, institutional money funds, and Eurodollars (discontinued in 2005)
• L = M3 plus other liquid securities such as savings bonds and short-term Treasury securities
5
US Money Supply Statistics
Measure USD Billions % of M3 1-yr %Chg
Currency 741 10.8% 3.5%
M1 1,358 19.7% -1.0%
M2 6,879 100.0% 4.4%Source: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.6
6
The US Federal Reserve
• Federal Reserve System is the US “central bank”– Foreign counterparts include the European Central
Bank (ECB), The Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan
• Founded in 1913 by congress, “to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system.”
• Primary functions are– Monetary policy– Banking supervision and regulation– Providing certain services (e.g., check clearing)
7
The US Federal Reserve (2)
• The “System” is composed of 12 regional banks and a Board of Governors in Washington, DC– Governors, the Chairman and Vice-Chairman are
appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate
• Monetary policy is overseen by the “Federal Open Market Committee” or FOMC which includes– Board of Governors– Fed Bank of NY President– 4 other regional bank presidents on a rotating basis
8
Monetary Policy (1)
• About every six weeks the FOMC meets to determine monetary policy for the US
• In practice, this means determining the target for the “Federal Funds Rate” – an inter-bank overnight interest rate
• Fed decreases (increases) the Fed Funds rate by buying (selling) government securities which increases (decreases) the available money supply– The Federal Reserve Bank of NY makes these
purchases or sales on the open market--hence the name Federal Open Market Committee.
9
Monetary Policy (2)
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%19
91
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Fed Funds Target
Fed Funds Actual
10
The Fed’s Actions around 9/11
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
9/5/
01
9/7/
01
9/9/
01
9/11
/01
9/13
/01
9/15
/01
9/17
/01
9/19
/01
9/21
/01
9/23
/01
9/25
/01
9/27
/01
Fed Funds Actual
Fed Funds Target
Stock Markets Re-open
11
Monetary Policy (3)
• The official objectives of US monetary policy are, “economic growth in line with the economy's potential to expand, a high level of employment, stable prices (that is, stability in the purchasing power of the dollar), and moderate long-term interest rates.”
• Conceptually, the Fed will raise (the real) interest rate if GDP is greater than “Potential GDP” and vice-versa
12
Aside: Real vs. Nominal Rates
• It is often said that the interest rate is the “cost of money.” Is this true?
• Ultimately, we use money to obtain consumption goods
• Think of the interest rate in terms of trading some real amount of consumption in one time period for some real amount of consumption in another time period– Note however, borrowing and lending contracts are
stated in nominal terms.
13
Aside: Real vs. Nominal Rates
• The real rate of interest (R*) can be defined as approximately,
Real Interest Rate =
Nominal Interest Rate - Anticipated Inflation
• In 2004, what was R* in the – the US? – Japan?
14
Monetary Policy (4)
• Potential GDP is the rate of economic activity that leads to stable prices and employment
• Intuitively it is the amount of output that is generated by utilizing all available resources at there highest sustainable level.
• Algebraically, we can think of it asPotGDP = (aggregate hours available for work)
x(average output per hour)
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Monetary Policy (5)
• Economists often discuss the Potential GDP Growth Rate which is approximately
PotGDP Growth = Labor Force Growth Rate
+ Productivity Growth Rate
• We can calculate PotGDP Growth with this formula for the last 50 years
16
Historical Potential GDP
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%Productivity Growth
Labor Force Growth
17
Better Estimates of PotGDP
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
PotGDP-Congressional Budget Office Estimates
PotGDP-( 5yr- Moving Average from Previous Graph)
18
Monetary Policy and the GDP Gap
Monetary Policy Regime Change
Note: GDP Gap = (Actual GDP - PotGDP) / PotGDP
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%19
55
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Real Fed Funds
GDP-Gap
19
NAIRU
• Another way of thinking about potential output is the equilibrium rate of unemployment or NAIRU (Non-accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment)
• NAIRU is the rate of unemployment below which there will be inflationary pressures
• The exact level of NAIRU is an issue of debate.– Most economists believe it is somewhere between
4% and 6% in the US and Japan. Probably higher in Europe (7-8%).
20
Monetary Policy and NAIRU
Monetary Policy Regime Change
Note: U-NAIRU is actual unemployment minus NAIRU and is sometimes called the employment gap.
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Real Fed Funds
U-NAIRU
21
Other Mechanisms for Monetary Policy
• The Fed also has two other ways of controlling monetary policy– The discount rate– Reserve requirements
• Reserve requirements (rr) directly affect the level of money via the “money multiplier” (1/rr)– Example, if the reserve requirement is 20% of
deposits then the money multiplier is 1/0.2 = 5
22
Fractional Reserve Banking
• The Fed buys a $1,000 (market value) treasury bond from a bond dealer
• The dealer deposits the $1,000 proceeds into its bank, FirstBank– Money supply increases by $1,000
• FirstBank only has to keep $200 as reserves and loans the $800 balance:
FirstBanks Balance SheetAssets LiabilitiesReserves $200 Deposits $1,000Loans $800
23
Fractional Reserve Banking (2)
• Assume FirstBank made an $800 computer loan to a student. Money supply increases to $1,800
• The student buys a computer at BestBuy which deposits the $800 at its bank, SecondBank
• SecondBank also loans out all but 20% SecondBank Balance Sheet
Assets LiabilitiesReserves $160 Deposits $800Loans $640
• Now money supply = 1,000 + 800 + 640 = 2,440
24
Fractional Reserve Banking (3)
• This practice of keeping 20% reserves and loaning out the rest continues indefinitely
• However, the ultimate increase in the money supply (MS) is finite and equal to
MS = D / rrMS = $1,000 / 0.2
MS = $5,000
where D is the original increase in money by the Fed[ Mathgeeks note, its a converging geometric sequence:
1+x+x2+x3+... = 1/(1-x) where x = (1-rr) ]
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Fed Reserve Requirements Requirement
Type of Deposit % of Deposits Effective Date
Net transaction accounts $0 million-$8.5 million 0 12/21/06
$8.5 million-$45.8 million 3 12/21/06
More than $45.8 million 10 12/21/06
Nonpersonal time deposits 0 12/27/90
Eurocurrency liabilities 0 12/27/90Required reserves must be held in the form of deposits with Federal Reserve Banks or vault cash. Nonmember institutions may maintain reserve balances with a Federal Reserve Bank indirectly, on a pass-through basis, with certain approved institutions. Under the Monetary Control Act of 1980, depository institutions include commercial banks, savings banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, agencies and branches of foreign banks, and Edge Act corporations.
See also: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/0693lead.pdf
26
Interest Rates
• There are lots of important USD interest rates – Federal funds rate – Discount rate – Prime rate – Commercial paper rate – LIBOR and Eurodollar (similar for other currencies)– T-bill, T-note, T-bond rate– Swap rates– Corporate bond rates– Overnight repurchase rate or “Repo” rate
• Rates depend on credit risk, liquidity, and maturity
27
Government Issues
Thru6/07
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1934
1939
1944
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
3-month T-Bill
20-year T-Bond
Term Spread
28
Corporate Bonds
Thru6/07
0
5
10
15
20
1934
1939
1944
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
Moody's AAA Corp
Moody's Baa Corp
Baa Credit Spread (over Treasuries)
29
A Model of the Money Market
• More detail about what affects interest rates
• For now consider “money” to be M1
• Also we assume that the money supply is controlled by the central bank (e.g., the US Federal Reserve)
• Specifically, the central bank fixes the amount of money in the aggregate economy (MS) at a level it desires regardless of other factors
30
Individual Money Demand
• Individuals’ demand for money is based on– The expected (real) return on money:
• Money (M1) pays little or no interest• => higher interest rates will lead to less demand for
money
– The riskiness of the return• The risk of holding money comes from variation in the
price level. Why?
– Liquidity• The primary value associated with money is derived
from liquidity• Since a primary use of money is as a medium of
exchange, this implies an increase in the value of individual transactions increases the demand for money
31
Aggregate Money Demand
• Aggregate money demand is the sum of demand for money by all households and firms in the economy
• In aggregate we can say the determinants of the aggregate demand for money are– The interest rate– The price level (think CPI)– Real national income (or GNP or GDP)
• Because this determines the need for liquidity
32
Aggregate Money Demand
• Define aggregate money demand asMD = P * L(R,Y) or MD / P = L(R,Y)
where, MD = Aggregate money demand P = Price level R = Interest rate Y = Real national income (or GNP or GDP)
and,L decreases as R increasesL increases as Y increases
33
Aggregate Money Demand
L(R,Y)
Interest Rate (R)
Aggregate Real Money (M/P)
L(R,Y1)
Interest Rate (R)
L(R,Y2)
Increase in Y
Aggregate Real Money (M/P)
34
Equilibrium in the Money Market
In equilibrium, MS = MD = P*L(R,Y)
Aggregate Real Money Demand L(R,Y)
Interest Rate (R)
Real Money Supply
R1
MS/P
2
3
1
R2
R3
Q2 Q3 Aggregate Real Money (M/P)
35
Increase in Money Supply
Suppose the money supply increases from M1/P to M2/P
Aggregate Real Money Demand L(R,Y)
Interest Rate (R)
Real Money Supply Increases
R1
M1/P
2
1
R2
M2/PAggregate Real Money (M/P)
36
Increase in GDP
Suppose real income (GDP) increases from Y1 to Y2
L(R,Y2)
Interest Rate (R)
Real Money Supply
R1
MS/P
2
1’1
R2
Q1’
L(R,Y1)
Aggregate Real Money (M/P)