1 Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology...
-
Upload
emory-barker -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of 1 Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor, Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology...
•1
THE CROWD, THE CLOUD, THE CROWD, THE CLOUD, AND THE EXAFLOOD: AND THE EXAFLOOD: THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION
Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]
•2
THE CROWD, THE CLOUD, THE CROWD, THE CLOUD, AND THE EXAFLOOD: AND THE EXAFLOOD: THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION
Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown UniversityTwitter: MikeNelson
•3
THE CROWD, THE CLOUD, THE CROWD, THE CLOUD, AND THE EXAFLOOD: AND THE EXAFLOOD: THE FUTURE OF THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATIONCOLLABORATION
Michael R. NelsonResearch AssociateCSC Leading Edge [email protected]@LEADINGEDGEFORUM.COM
NFAIS February 28, 2011
My Background
B.S., geology, Caltech Ph.D., geophysics, MIT 1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow 4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor 4 years as IT policy guru at White House 1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC 9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008 Part of Obama campaign’s tech policy team
NFAIS February 28, 2011
What’s Shaping the Internet E-government 2.0 Creating a Culture of Innovation How to Predict the Future(s)
My Classes
NFAIS February 28, 2011
In Washington, Words Matter
The right words can: Define an issue Kill a project Stir emotions Mobilize people
Examples: Obama: “Change” Estate tax > “Death tax” Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars”
NFAIS February 28, 2011
In Washington, Numbers Matter
It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
NFAIS February 28, 2011
In Washington, Numbers Matter
It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
NFAIS February 28, 2011
In Washington, Numbers Matter
It helps to have hundreds of pages of data
But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
(preferably true)
NFAIS February 28, 2011
A personal anecdote is worth a dozen policy papers—especially if other people (and the media) start repeating it.
In Washington, Stories Matter
NFAIS February 28, 2011
To take a bit about where the Internet was when I first got involved with it in 1988
Then talk about Internet 2020 Talk about how to make sure we get
there
My Goals Today
NFAIS February 28, 2011
First US Senate hearing on the Internet
Senator Gore’s High Performance Computing and Networking legislation
People thought he was a flake (or worse)
No one came to the hearing
Looking back to 1988
NFAIS February 28, 2011
The Internet was the NSFNET and regional academic network connected to it
A good connection: 1200 bits/secondBackbone of the NSFNET: 56,000
bits/second!
Looking back to 1988
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LO
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOG
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>B
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, I
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS TH
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS S
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS SLO
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS SLOW!
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
>LOGIN>BOY, IS THIS SLOW!
A Demo for the Senators
NFAIS February 28, 2011
A Demo for the Senators II
NFAIS February 28, 2011
A Demo for the Senators II
NFAIS February 28, 2011
A Demo for the Senators II
NFAIS February 28, 2011
A Demo for the Senators II
NFAIS February 28, 2011
A Demo for the Senators III
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Who could have imagined
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Who Could have Imagined
NFAIS February 28, 2011
World Wide Web E-commerce User-generated content
What Else We Didn’t Imagine
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Researchers > Everyone Video entertainment Video-conferencing
For more, see 2005 Pew Internet and American Life report, Imagining the Internet
What We Did Imagine
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Which standards would prevail Although we suspect TCP/IP would win
What to call it Internet, “Information Superhighway,”
“Info Autobahn,” “Information Infrastructure”
Which medium would dominate Telephone, DSL, fiber, cable TV, satellite,
wireless
What We Didn’t Know
NFAIS February 28, 2011
We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty
So What’s Next?
NFAIS February 28, 2011
We’ll see at least as much change in the next ten years as we have seen in the last twenty
PROVIDED we don’t screw things up!!
So What’s Next?
NFAIS February 28, 2011
VISION
First Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
"Where there is no vision, the people perish”
Proverbs 29:18
Words from the Bible
NFAIS February 28, 2011
"Where there is no vision, the people perish”
Proverbs 29:18
(Or at least you waste a lot of time and money.)
Words from the Bible
NFAIS February 28, 2011
VISION as Elevator Pitch
We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web The next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation
Internet
Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation
The Internet revolution is less than 20% complete Number of users Total bandwidth Total amount of content Number of devices Number of applications
NFAIS February 28, 2011
CLOUD
Second Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
1) How familiar are you with Cloud computing?1) I've heard the term2) I've read a number of articles about it3) I'm using Cloud services on a regular basis4) I'm developing Cloud-based applications5) I'm a Cloud guru
Clicker Question #1
NFAIS February 28, 2011
2) I think the Cloud is:1) A useful marketing term2) The latest fuzzy, poorly-defined buzzword3) As important as the World Wide Web4) Likely to lead to a transformation of the entire IT industry
Clicker Question #2
NFAIS February 28, 2011
3) Within 5 years what percentage of the world computing and storage will happen "in the Cloud?"1) 2%2) 5%3) 10%4) 25%5) 50%6) 80%
Clicker Question #3
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Examples of Cloud Computing
Academic grids as a prototype of the cloudAmazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data
centers and offering online appsAmazon’s Elastic Compute CloudGmail – “the entry drug for cloud users”Flickr, YouTubeOnline back-upSalesForce.comAkamai delivers 15-20 percent of Internet traffic BOINC grids more powerful than
supercomputers
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Akamai – Visualizing the Internet
http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/visualizing_akamai.html
NFAIS February 28, 2011
GAME CHANGER
Third Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Cloud Computing
Why it matters:This is the 3rd phase of the InternetThis is the 3rd phase of COMPUTING
The Third Phase of the Internet
1969 1980 1990 2000 2010
Capability
Phase 1 - Communicating
Phase 2 - Content
Phase 3
Collaboration
?
NFAIS February 28, 2011
“The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr
NFAIS February 28, 2011
MANY-TO-MANY
Fourth Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Phase One – Stand Alone Computer
App. Data
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Phase Two – The Web
Web sites
DataApp.
Browser
PC
DataData
Data
Data
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Phase Three – The Cloud
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
NFAIS February 28, 2011
THINGS
Fifth Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
The Internet of Things
Why it matters:100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion
PCs
Impacts?Increased need for ubiquitous wirelessA flood of new data from sensors, etc.New uses for the Cloud
NFAIS February 28, 2011
The Cloud + The Internet of Things
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
NFAIS February 28, 2011
The Cloud + The Internet of Things
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
NFAIS February 28, 2011
The Cloud + The Internet of Things
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
NFAIS February 28, 2011
4) Today, more than 2 billion people use the Internet. Within 5 years the number of devices that connect to the Internet will be:1) 10 billion2) 50 billion3) 100 billion4) 500 billion5) More than 1 trillion
Clicker Question #4
NFAIS February 28, 2011
EXAFLOOD
Sixth word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Estimating the Exaflood(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)
NFAIS February 28, 2011
What’s in the Exaflood?
NFAIS February 28, 2011
COLLABORATION
Seventh Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Example: Social Media
Facebook, Twitter becoming platforms for communication and collaboration replacing e-mail
spurring innovation crowdsourcing
sorting the Exaflood
NFAIS February 28, 2011
April 20, 2010 Symposium at Georgetown
Examined how Cloud computing enables: Crowdsourcing Collaborative Bibliographies Rapid response (DARPA’s Red Balloon
experiment) Webcast available
Don’t miss talk by Jeannette Wing, NSF and CMU
The Crowd and the Cloud
NFAIS February 28, 2011
CONSUMERIZATION
Eighth Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Doug Neal, CSC Leading Edge Forum:
From Consumerization to the Cloud – the accelerating rate of IT change
30 November 2009
Consumerization of the Workplace
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Your employees want to use the best tools Facebook LinkedIn Google apps
They’re work life and family life are merging Calendars Instant messaging Video, Skype
They want reliability, portability, the Cloud
Consumerization of the Workplace
NFAIS February 28, 2011
PEOPLE
Ninth Word
•Hardware
•Hardware
•Hardware
•Hardware
•Hardware•Software
•Hardware•Software•People
•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People
•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People
.
•Software•Organizations •People
•Software•Organizations •People
•Organizations •People
NFAIS February 28, 2011
EMOTION
Tenth Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Love (or Lust) Fear Envy Distraction Anxiety
Emotions online
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Communication Content Collaboration Community > Commitment
Killer Apps of the Net
NFAIS February 28, 2011
PREDICTIONS
Eleventh Word
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud”
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud”
(But it might take 10 years)
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors could be connected to the Net
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Within 10 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net
Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Technical Agreement and adoption of key standards
IPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards
Business practices Cooperation around open standards vs.
proprietary lock-in; open source software Culture
Users have to learn to “trust the cloud” CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new
roles Policy
Why Not?
NFAIS February 28, 2011
POLICY
The Last Word
•Organizations •People•Policy •Hardware•Software
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Privacy Search warrants, wiretapping in the
Cloud? Transparency Online copyright Liability for cloud service providers
Who’s responsible for Illegal activities? International data flows Competition policy
Updating policies for the Cloud
NFAIS February 28, 2011
1. The Clouds Scenario2. The Cloudy Skies Scenario3. The Blue Skies Scenario
Three Possible Futures
The Clouds Scenario
Different, distinct, proprietary clouds
Non-interoperable standards
The cable television network business model; bottlenecks and monopolies
The Cloudy Skies Scenario
Distinct clouds Interconnected Cloud applications
aren’t interoperable
Little common middleware (e.g. no single sign-on)
Lots of missed opportunities
Blue Skies Scenario
A “cloud of clouds” like the network of networks
Truly interoperable clouds services
“Mix and match” Common middleware Seamless Almost infinite
opportunities
Sky’s the Limit!!
NFAIS February 28, 2011
If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everwhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing
We Have 3 or 4 Years
NFAIS February 28, 2011
If we make the right choices: The Internet continues to grow Bandwidth explodes Wireless everwhere 10x, 100x more applications Internet of Things > Invisible Computing
If we blow it: Internet becomes Cable TV Innovation shuts down
We Have 3 or 4 Years
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Are we building a network or a computer? Less regulation or more?
The Fundamental Choices
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Are we building a network or a computer? Less regulation or more?
Mental model? Telephone Broadcast television Computer Paper
The Fundamental Choices
NFAIS February 28, 2011
Conclusions
The Internet Revolution is less than 20% complete
The Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but: Much faster Totally global More unpredictable
When in doubt, empower the user!