1. Loans Close To Expiration 2009092902
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•More loans are approaching expiration than we have previously seen as of the 29 th of September •Loans are funding more slowly in September relative to the rest of 2009 •Slower funding time may be driven by increase in loan posting levels; i.e. loan supply has increased Loans close to expiration Summary
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A quick analysis on loan funding time in order to understand the growing number of loans approaching expiration
Transcript of 1. Loans Close To Expiration 2009092902
• More loans are approaching expiration than we have previously seen as of the 29th of September
• Loans are funding more slowly in September relative to the rest of 2009
• Slower funding time may be driven by increase in loan posting levels; i.e. loan supply has increased
Loans close to expirationSummary
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Loans close to expirationBackground: More than 60 loans are close to their expiration date
Nu
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f lo
ans
Days until expiration
020406080
100120140160180200
14710131619222528
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mb
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ans
Days until expiration
Distribution of loans by days until expirationAs of 23 Sep 2009, end-of-day
Distribution of loans by days until expirationAs of 28 Sep 2009, end-of-day
• It seems as though a large number of “expiring” loans have funded in the past 6 days– 185 loans were 7 days from expiration at the end of the day on September 23rd, but this
number was down to 62 loans (within 2 days of expiration) at the end of the day on September 28th
• However, this number of 62 loans still seems to be higher than in the past• This raises two questions:
– At what rate are loans being funded when they approach expiration?– Why are so many loans close to their expiration date?
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Loans close to expirationBackground: Loan decay rate graph explanation
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Days since posted to kiva.org
Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org
Loan decay rate graphJuly 2009
1 All non-refunded loans
How to read the graph:• Loans are posted at the back of the
graph• The faster the surface drops to the
“floor”, the faster the loans raised• When the surface hits the “floor”
of the graph, there are no more loans fundraising from that date
• Loans posted early in the month are on the right, loans posted later in the month are on the left
• If the fraction of loans still fundraising is non-zero 30 days after being posted, they will expire
– In this example, no loans expired
100% of loans are fundraising when they are posted
No loans remain when the fraction of loans still
fundraising = 0%
Loans funded very quickly
here
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Loans close to expirationLoans in August funded more quickly then in July
1 All non-refunded loans
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ans
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Days since posted to kiva.org
Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org
Loan decay rate graphJuly 2009
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ans
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1Days since posted to kiva.org
Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org
Loan decay rate graphAugust 2009
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Loans funded more quickly toward the end of August
Still, no loans approached expiration
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Loans close to expirationLoans in September are funding more slowly than July or August
1 All non-refunded loans
Fra
ctio
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f lo
ans
still
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Days since posted to kiva.org
Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org
Loan decay rate graphSeptember 2009
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ans
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rais
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1Days since posted to kiva.org
Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org
Loan decay rate graphAugust 2009
51015202530
05
1015
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30
0.0
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
The surface ends where the date is greater than 29 Sep
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Loans close to expirationLoan funding rate has decreased significantly in September
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Days since posted to kiva.org
Month of the year the loan was posted to kiva.org
Loan decay rate graphJan 2009 - Sep 2009
1 All non-refunded loans
Funding rate decrease:• Fastest funding were on loans
posted to the website in March 2009
• Slower funding time in September may be due to decrease in loan share purchases
• The decrease in funding rate may be a direct result of high loan posting levels:
A significant number of loans are nearing their expiration
date, which hasn’t happened yet this year
Higher-than normal fraction of loans still
fundraising
FebApr
JunAugSep
JulMay
MarJan
$3.4 M$4.0 M
$4.4 M$4.9 M
$4.4 M$5.2 M $5.0 M $5.1 M $5.0 M
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Am
ou
nt
po
sted
($M
)
Month
