1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email:...

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Transcript of 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email:...

Page 1: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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Page 2: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Lawrence P. BrownHead of Forecasting Section

National Meteorological CentreEmail: [email protected]

RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop1 - 3 December, Willemstad Curacao

Meteorological Service Jamaica

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Page 3: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Outline of the presentation

1. Vision and Mission

2. National Observing Issues or Needs

3. Plans for the observing networks

4. WIGOS Implementation Status

5. Summary

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Page 4: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Vision of the Jamaican Government and NMS

Government Vision

JAMAICA, THE PLACE OF CHOICE TO LIVE, WORK, RAISE FAMILIES, AND DO BUSINESS”

Meteorological Service Vision

TO BE THE PREMIER PROVIDER OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN.

 

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Page 5: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

MSJ Mission Statement:• to take full advantage of man's present

knowledge of weather and climate;

• to take steps to improve significantly that knowledge and to foresee and prevent

potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of

humanity."

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Page 6: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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Permanent SecretaryGMG/EMG 1

Director Meteorological Service

GMG/SEG 6

Executive Secretary OPS/SS4

Administrative BranchAdministrator GMG/AM 4

Climate Branch Meteorologist

SOG/ST 8

Weather Branch Meteorologist

SOG/ST 8

Radar Station Snr Met Technician

Instrument Met Instrument & Equip Specialist

Caribbean

Rawinsonde Network Met Technician 2

National Meteorological Centre

Meteorologist 3

Synoptic Sub Station Met Technician 2

Applied

Meteorology Meteorologist 3

Data Processing Meteorologist 3

LEGENDMeteorologist 4 SOG/ST 8Meteorologist 3 SOG/ST 7Meteorologist 2 SOG/ST 6Met Instrument SOG/ST 6& Equip SpecialistMeteorologist 1 SOG/ST 5Snr Met Technician SOG/ST 5Met Technician 2 SOG/ST 4Met Technician 1 SOG/ST 3

Meteorologist 2Meteorologist 1

4 Snr Met Technician

Met Technician 2

6 Met Technician 1

Meteorologist 2

Meteorologist 1

Snr Met

Technician

Snr met tech

Meteorologist 2

Meteorologist 1

1 Met Technician

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4 Met

Technician 1

Meteorologist 2 (ICT)

Meteorologist 1 (ICT)

Met Technician 2

Met Tecnician 1

Accounting Technician 2 FMG/AT 2

Secretary 2OPS/SS 2

Secretary 1 OPS/SS1 Accounting Tech 1 FMG/AT 1Attendant LMO/TS 1Attendant LMO/TS 2Gardener LMO/TS 12 Drivers LMO/DR 2Telephone Operator OPS/TO 22 Accounting Clerk 2 FMG/AC 2

4 Met Technician 1

2 Met Technician 1

4 Met Technician 2

2 Snr Met Technician

Watchman LMO/TS 2

Data Acquisition 1 Snr Met Technician

2 Met Technician

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Ministry of Water, Land, Environment and Climate ChangeMeteorological ServiceExisting Staffing Structure

May 2014

Page 7: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Staff composition and related area

1. Administrative Branch: 20 officers

3. Weather Branch: 34 officers

2. Climate Branch: 19 officers

Competence: All technical staff are trained initially at the regional training centre CIMH Barbados - WMO entry level- and also at the UWI in conjuction with CIMH from there on staff are exposed to the various level of training available at the CIMH and elsewhere.

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Page 8: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Responsabilités of the MSJClimate Branch

• Climate services: the dissemination of climate information to the public and private sector user.

• Climate Data ManagementWeather Branch

• Aviation services• Marine Forecast Services• General and specific area forecast for land

Other sections• Radar observations• Upper Air observations• Sub-Synoptic Station (Montego Bay-SIA)

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Page 9: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Major Tropical Cyclone and damage over Jamaica

Gilbert: Sept 12, 1988* 45 lives , 4 billion dollars US* 130 mph winds * 19 feet Storm surge and* 32 inches over Jamaicahttp://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/The-day-Gilbert-ravaged-Jamaica_15053181

Wilma: October 8 to 21, 2005

* 3 live over Jamaica 2 after the hurricane due to rising water.

* JD3.6b

* Sustained significant rainfall for almost 3 weeks

* All time lowest central pressure 882 mb

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Page 10: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Ivan Sep 10 weekend 2004* 17 lives , * JD36.9b* 140 mph wind http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/67006_The-trees-fell-like-soldiers-before-Hurricane-Ivan

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Major Tropical Cyclone and damage over Jamaica

TS Gustav Aug25 – Sep 1,2008

* 12 lives lost

* JD15.5b

* 45-70 mph

Slow moving T Storm with unprecedented rainfall

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al07/loop_5W.shtml

Page 11: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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EVENT Year Category Lives Lost Cost ($JB) Impact (% GDP)

Hurricane Michelle 2001 4 5 2.52 0.8

May/June Flood Rains

2002 - 6 2.47 0.7

Hurricane Charley 2004 4 1 0.44 0.02

Hurricane Ivan 2004 3 17 36.9 8

Hurricanes Dennis & Emily

2005 4 7 5.98 1.2

Hurricane Wilma 2005 5 1 3.6 0.7

Hurricane Dean 2007 4 6 23.8 3.4

Tropical Storm Gustav

2008 12 15.5 2

Tropical Storm Nicole

2010 16 20.6 1.9

Hurricane Sandy 2012 2 1 9.9 0.8

Total     72 121.71 ~ 2.0 p.a.

Major Tropical Cyclone and damage

over Jamaica

Page 12: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Status of the WMO-reported national observing networks

Summary of the operational status for relevant networks: Our island network consist of network of manual and automatic rain gauges, single

Radar, climate stations and two 24hr manned stations at our two international airports.

Are there any silent stations?:

Stations 78387 -78399 are assigned to us. we currently observe and transmit regularly from 78397 (MKJP) and 78388 (MKJS). Therefore there are some stations that are not issuing reports.

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Page 13: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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Is there an existing national/regional database that catalogues your observing networks?CIMH act as a regional repository for data however the process of archiving and storage of data has changed significantly with the available technology to store large amounts of data.

Are your data and metadata are accessible and shared? Our data is collected, quality controlled and managed by the climate Branch. The database being used is the CLIDATA which was recently upgraded. There is however no wide scale access of data however data is distributed on request.

Status of the WMO-reported national observing networks

Page 14: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Plans for the National Observing Networks

Weather Branch International airports are to be upgraded to have two AWOS at each runway.

The upgrade based on the need stated by ATS is that ceilometers are also being considered. The intention for forecasting is that a new RADAR will be purchased and its operations will also be used to enhance observations for aviation purposes, by this we mean increase wind reports at various levels , more frequent rainfall intensity and duration reports. It is felt that the radar reports will be feed into/ linked to AWS on the ground to maximize its usefulness

The current radar is also now linked to a Caribbean composite which affords monitoring of weather phenomena as they traverse the Caribbean basin.

Several (over 50) AWS are now installed island wide with more to come. This allows real time access of data for analysis and archiving for climate purposes.

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Page 15: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Plans for the National Observing Networks

Increase the density and coverage of observing stations both manual and automatic

Procure new radar and ensure access and availability via the internet [part of

the Caribbean composite] Ensure the maintenance of the system through training and

capacity building of staff Integrated the various observing platforms to ensure highest level

of usefulness to clients and general population Coordinate with and build strategic relations with other private

and public entities

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Page 16: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Major needs and gaps in observing capabilities and access

There is a need for broad scale real time feedback of rainfall and weather info occurring on the ground.

There is need for a common platform that will integrate various types of AWS and other observing systems

The island is very mountainous and because of this radar observations are difficult in some areas due to signal blockage by mountains

Island is served by a fairly large network of rain gauges however this ha been reduced over the years and so the gauges density is very lacking in some areas.

The island also have many remote areas and so AWS are required and the number and type of AWS needs to be address

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Page 17: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

How can WMO help?How can RA-IV and Members help?

Expertise:Training: Funding

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Page 18: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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Page 19: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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Page 20: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

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Page 21: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

WIGOS Implementation Status

Is there an updated National WIGOS Implementation plan/strategy?

– plans are in place for increase of AWS by about 20% each year for next 4 years, radar to be replaced within 2-3 years, tide gauges to be increased to 5 within next 2-3 years.

Do you have plans to create and execute such a strategy?

Yes. There are projects been pursued to complete this.

– Upgrade of the upper air stations What are your training needs? While we continue to utilize the resources available to us for training where possible,

our needs are for short term consultant expertise on the ground (say 3-6 months) in RADAR meteorology, Climatology, IT and system admin, tropical forecast office operations, data processing technology and expertise.

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Page 22: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

WIGOS Implementation Status Do you have any agreements with your partners?

The formal agreement is with the JCAA while the others are informal and based on traditional cooperation. Some entities like for example the UWI Climate Studies Group Mona CSGM, WRA, NIC ODPEM.

Can partners discover and access your data?This is a work in progress. The MSJ would need to have designated staff to coordinate and make

this a part of their mandate as this was not pursued.

– Davis weather AWS are part of an online network http://www.weatherlink.com/map.php

– Aviation based information available online METAR and SYNOP

– Internet access from our website http://www.metservice.gov.jm/ [link to observation down at the moment] and by request.

HOWEVER MORE WILL BE DONE IN THE FUTURE TO GIVE ACCESS TO REAL TIME DATA

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Page 23: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

WIGOS Implementation Status

Is there an operational Quality Management System for the National Observing system Network or specific component observing system?

QMS have been implemented for aviation meteorology and the plan is

to extend QMS into all areas of the Service.

Are operational /maintenance processes for observing systems documented and

their implementation monitored?

Yes: monthly reports are done on failures and maintenance by our

instrument and equipment section.

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Page 24: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Caribbean Radar Composite

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Page 25: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

Summary: the strategic plan

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Plans are in place for increase of AWS by about 20% each year for next 4 years, radar to be replaced within 2-3 years, tide gauges to be increased to 5 within next 2-3 years.

AlsoPlans are in place to merge the Meteorological Service with the Climate Change Division which would mean increase staff compliment to deal with both observed, forecast and processed data.AlsoProcure weather satellite package (GOES R) to enhance our operations along with new RADARAnd last but not leastto have highly trained motivated staff to operate at every level.

Page 26: 1. Lawrence P. Brown Head of Forecasting Section National Meteorological Centre Email: l.brown@metservice.gov.jm RA-IV WIGOS Implementation Workshop 1.

• To

Be

continued

Thank you26