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1 JRC – Ispra
DG JRC and EC4MACS
IPTS Institute for Prospective Technology Studies- Peter Russ- Antonio Soria- Szabolc Szekeres
IES Institute for Environment and Sustainability- John Van Aardenne- Adrian Leip- Rita Van Dingenen - Frank Dentener- Frank Raes
estimation of the impacts of climate change
(PESETA)
mitigation scenarios
(POLES)
economic impact ofpolicies
(GEM-E3)
2
Techno-economic characteristics of energy technologies
emission inventory (EDGAR)
technical characteristic costs environmental impact
Participate in technology development
CCS H2 Renewables
Provide policy advice
co-benefitsof policies
on air pollution (TM5/RITA)
JRC activities in support ofClimate Change policy making
3 JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel us, fertilizer use
need for energy, mobility,food
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
4 JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel use
need for energy, mobility
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
5 JRC – Ispra
A 2ºC target pathway requires substantial emission reductions in the energy sector
source: JRC-IPTS, published in SEC(2007)7
6 JRC – Ispra
Emission reductions needed in all sectors, power sector remains key for low-cost reductions
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Residential & services
Transport
Industry
Other conversion
Power Sector
Remaining emissions ina reduction scenario
Glo
bal e
mis
sion
s in
Mt C
O2-
equi
vale
nt
av
oid
ed
em
iss
ion
s
Remaining emissions in a 2°C target pathway scenario
7 JRC – Ispra
Energy savings and technological change are crucial for realising a climate change pathway
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy savings
Fossil fuel switch
Renewable energies
Nuclear energy
Carbon sequestration
Emission of reductioncase
avo
ided
em
iss
ion
s
Glo
bal
em
issi
ons
in M
t CO
2
Remaining emissions in a 2°C target pathway scenario
8 JRC – Ispra
The importance of new technologies example of global renewable electricity generation
source: JRC-IPTS, published in SEC(2007)7, modified
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Glo
bal
ren
ewab
le e
lect
rici
ty g
ener
atio
n (
TW
h) Solar electricity
Bioelectricity
Wind energy
Hydro (plus geothermal)
20 % of total electricity
46 % of total electricity
9 JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel use
need for energy, mobility
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
Main emission sectorsEnergyIndustrial combustionPower generationTransformationResidential, othrTransportNon-energyCoal productionOil productionGas production
Industrial processesIron and steel productionNon-ferro productionChemical industryBuilding materialsFood industrySolventsMisc. Industry
Agriculture/land useArable landRice cultivationEnteric fermentationAnimal waste managementBiomass burningCrop productionAnimal waste to soilIndirect N2OA forestation
WasteLandfillsWastewater treatmentHuman wastewater disposalWaste incinerationMisc. waste
~ 1500 sector, technologycombinations
CompoundsGreenhouse gasesCO2
CH4
N2OHFCHFC-125HFC-134aHFC-143aHFC-152aHFC-227eaHFC-23PFCC2F6C3F8C4F10C5F12C6F14C7F16C4F8CF4SF6
Air pollutant/precursorNOx
SO2
(NH3)CONMVOC (25 species)BCOC
Emissions provided on public domain: by country: (240) and grid (1x1), 0.1x0.1 (forthcoming)by year: 1990,1995,2000; GHG 1970-2000, 2004 (forthcoming)
Grid emissions by location of facility (NOx 1x1 oil production):
Grid emissions by transport routes (NOx 1x1 shipping):
Collaboration with MNP (NL), MPI (DE), CAPRI
EDGAR global emission inventory
11
JRC – Ispra
Aerosol chemistry and depositionOzone chemistry and depostionSource-receptor calculationsVerification/evaluation of emission inventories: Inverse Modelling
TM5 zoom model
12
JRC – Ispra
2000
surface ozone with TM5
2030 minus 2000 POLES
climate change policy scenario
13
JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel use
need for energy, mobility
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
14
JRC – Ispra
2000 2030 minus 2000 CLE-IIASA
surface ozone with TM5air pollution reduction scenario
15
JRC – Ispra
2030 minus 2000 POLES2030 minus 2000 CLE-IIASA
change in surface ozone betw. 2000 & 2030
air pollution policies climate change policies
16
JRC – Ispra
Economic losses due to ozone damage to 4 major agricultural crops, Years 2000 and 2030 (million US$)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000U
.S.A
.
CH
INA
JA
PA
N
IND
IA
IRA
N
PA
KIS
TA
N
IND
ON
ES
IA
TU
RK
EY
ITA
LY
BR
AZ
IL
EG
YP
T
FR
AN
CE
ME
XIC
O
CA
NA
DA
20002030
cost of surface ozone on agriculture
17
JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel use
need for energy, mobility
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
18
JRC – Ispra
1750 - 2000 - 1.95 W/m2
2000 - 2030 MFR + 1.12 W/m2
2000 - 2030 CLE - 0.17 W/m2
radiative forcing by aerosols: past & future(direct & indirect effects)
-6.0 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 0 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 W/m2
1750 - 2000 + 2.60 W/m2
2000 – 2050 B1 + 1.90 W/m2
aerosols
greenhouse gasses
19
JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel use
need for energy, mobility
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
20
JRC – Ispra
NOx VOC SO2 PM emissions
air pollutionO3 PM
biosphere
global temperature ecosystems human health
CO2 CH4 N2Oemissions
CO2 CH4 N2Oconcentrations
fossil fuel use
need for energy, mobility
Earth System machinery
technicalmeasures
behavioralmeasures
structuralmeasures
S
YS
TEM
RES
PO
NS
E
PO
LIC
Y R
ES
PO
NS
E
integrated assessment of air pollution and climate change
21
JRC – Ispra
22
JRC – Ispra
23
JRC – Ispra
Basic assumptions of the simulated 2ºC target pathway
• Energy efficiency improvements through dedicated policies, e.g. standards• Global emissions peak by 2020 and decrease by 25% compared to 1990 by 2050• Developed countries take on emission reduction targets in the order of 30% by 2020• Carbon prices in developing countries follow developed countries with a delay of several years, simulating e.g. the effect of flexible Kyoto mechanisms (JI/CDM)• Transport, residential and service sectors are not part of an emission trading scheme but experience policies that are equivalent to a carbon permit price• The global price per ton of CO2 increases from 21 EUR in 2015 to 64 EUR by 2030
source: JRC-IPTS; published in SEC(2007)7