1 IPCC Media & Climate Change: Getting the Message to the People R. K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC...
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Transcript of 1 IPCC Media & Climate Change: Getting the Message to the People R. K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC...
1IPCC
Media & Climate Change: Getting the Message to the People
R. K. PachauriChairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
Roanoke, Virginia17th October 2008
3IPCC
Role of the IPCC
The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation & mitigation
WMO UNEP
4IPCC
References to the IPCC in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)
“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts”
“[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods”
“[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”
5IPCC
Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
6IPCC
Changes in global average surface temperature
Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature
50 years 0.128oC
100 years 0.074oC Period Rate / decade
7IPCC
Global temperature change
1900 1950 2000
Year
Tem
per
atu
re a
no
mal
y
1
0.5
0
Models using only natural forcing
Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcing
Observations
8IPCC
II. Observed changes in climateChanges in global average sea level
Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr
9IPCC
Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system
during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th
century”
10IPCC
Carbon dioxide emissions
Rad
iati
ve F
orc
ing
(W
m )
Car
bo
n D
ioxi
de
(pp
m)
10000 5000 0
Time (before 2005)
-2Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in 1970-2004
11IPCC
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
year
Ranges for predicted surface warming
12IPCC
People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia 12 to 81 million in Latin America 75 to 250 million in Africa
Expected impacts on poor regions
Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia30% by 2080 in Latin America50% by 2020 in some African countries
Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa
13IPCC
Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
3. “Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offset
a substantial fraction of mitigation costs”
14IPCC
Stabilizationlevel
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean temp.
increase (ºC)
Year CO2
needs to peak
Global sea level rise above pre- industrial from
thermal expansion
(m)
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 0.4 – 1.4
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 0.5 – 1.7
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 0.6 – 1.9
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 0.6 – 2.4
Characteristics of stabilisation scenarios
15IPCC
GDP without mitigation
GDP with stringent mitigation
2030
GDP
TimeCurrent
Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term
Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP
Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)
Schematic graph
16IPCC
Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution
Increased energy security
Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems
More rural employment
Co-benefits of mitigation
Co-benefits provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs
17IPCC
Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more emission intensive infrastructure and development pathways
Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations were held constant, a further warming trend would occur in the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade
Mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies
The urgent need for action
18IPCC
The role of the media:
Ensuring proper focus on the future by getting the right messages across
19IPCC
The media and climate change: excerpts
Time Magazine special Environment issue, April 2008
“The earth must be inevitably changing its aspect and its climate. How the change is slowly taking place and what the result will be has been considered.”
(New York Times, 1932)
“Every time you start a car, light a fire, or turn on a furnace you’re joining the greatest weather “experiment” men have ever launched.”
(Christian Science Monitor, 1957)
22IPCC
Role and limitations of mass media
Mass media has shaped perceptions on climate change and has broadly affected translations between science and policy
However, the media may not have reported enough on the urgency and depth of the changes needed
23IPCC
Some recommendations
Go beyond the cyclical coverage of climate change & emphasise its day-to-day relevance
Adaptation & mitigation issues can be linked to a variety of news items and topics
Inform, but also stimulate audience to think and act and emphasise existing solutions
Citizens and consumers’ opinion & choices are the main factors of pressure on decision-makers
Link climate change to other issues of sustainable development Fighting climate change goes through the creation of a more
sustainable society
24IPCC
Media and public opinion on climate policy
Issue of developing countries’ rising emissions currently dominates US public opinion on policy action in climate change
India’s per capita emissions about 5 % of US per capita emissions; China’s less than 20%
Integrating climate change into development policies is crucial, but lack of quantitative targets for developing countries should not be
an alibi for US inaction.
Media has a critical role in forming public opinion, to galvanise policy action on climate change
25IPCC
Equity aspect of climate change
The impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately
on developing nations, and poorer people in all countries
In Africa by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to
climate change.
Health Impacts: increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; increased
burden of diarrhoeal disease; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases; altered spatial distribution of some
infectious disease vectors.
In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020
Small islands are especially vulnerable