1. How many women are there who live near me?
Transcript of 1. How many women are there who live near me?
1. How many women are there who live near me? (In London -> 4 million women)
2. How many are likely to be of the right age range? (20% -> 800,000 women)
3. How many are likely to be single? (50% -> 400,000 women)
4. How many are likely to have a university degree? (26% -> 104,000 women)
5. How many are likely to be attractive? (5% -> 5,200 women)
6. How many are likely to find me attractive? (5% -> 260 women)
7. How many am I likely to get along well with? (10% -> 26 women)
1. How many people of the right gender are there who live near me? (In London -> 4 million women)
2. How many are likely to be of the right age range? (20% -> 800,000 women)
3. How many are likely to be single? (50% -> 400,000 women)
4. How many are likely to have a university degree? (26% -> 104,000 women)
5. How many are likely to be attractive? (20% -> 20,800 women)
6. How many are likely to find me attractive? (20% -> 4,160 women)
7. How many am I likely to get along well with? (20% -> 832 women)
C O N D ITI O N A
C O N D ITI O N B
Beauty Is In The Eye Of The Beholder
The Decoy Effect
Ross
Chandler
Joey
Rachel
Phoebe
Monica
Rachel
Rachel
Phoebe
Joey
Ross
Joey
Phoebe
Monica
Rachel
Ross
Chandler
Chandler
Monica
Phoebe
Monica
Chandler
Joey
Ross
1 S T C H O I C E
1 S T C H O I C E
2 N D C H O I C E
2 N D C H O I C E
3 R D C H O I C E
3 R D C H O I C E
Harry's answer
Hermione's answer
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
A little important
Not important
Very important
Mandatory
D O YO U L I K E Q U I D D I T C H ?
D O YO U L I K E Q U I D D I T C H ?
A R E YO U G O O D AT D E F E AT I N G DA R K W I Z A R D S ?
A R E YO U G O O D AT D E F E AT I N G DA R K W I Z A R D S ?
Harry
Hermione
The answer Harry is looking for from his potential partner
The answer Hermione is looking for from her potential partner
Importance of the question to Harry
Importance of the question to Hermione
Stable Marriages
Dating Algorithms
Messages Received Last Month vs. Attractiveness125
100
75
50
25
0
least average most
Measured attractiveness
Num
ber o
f mes
sage
s la
st m
onth
10
10
20 -5
-10
−10
20
−5
Faithful
Faithful
DO
N
Cheat
Cheat
B E T T Y
Attractiveness And Messages Received
The Game Of Being Faithful
Num
ber o
f peo
ple
Number of partners
Cinderella SnowWhite
ArielSleepingBeauty
PrinceCharming
A Pattern Behind Sexual Partners
A Simplified Network
P(r) = nr – 1 1
n i - 1i=r
Perc
enta
ge c
hanc
e of
suc
cess
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Rejection phase (as a percentage of your dating window)
020 40 60 80 100
tol = 1 tol = 5 tol = 15
Your Chances Of Finding The One
How Many People To Reject
John and family
Tony and Cherie
Gordon and family
4
2
5
0.95 3.8 94.8
0.20 0.4 95.2
1.00 5.0 100.2
NUMBER OF G U E S T S X
P R O B A B I L I T Y T H E Y ' L L R S V P W I T H A Y E S P ( X )
E X P E C T E D AT T E N D A N C EE ( X )
R U N N I N GT O TA L
Names
2 0.80 1.6 101.8David and Sam
Probability
100 1500Number of guests attending on the day
85 110
Invitation List
How Many Guests To Expect
Luke
Bruce
Darth
The Joker
Cruella
Dalmatian puppy
— 20 60 -20 -5 0
40 -10 -30 -5
— -10 -30 -40
-10 — 30 15
-30 30 — 20
-40 15 20 —
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40
-10
-30
-5
20
-20
-5
0
60
L U K E B R U C E D A R T H T H E J O K E R
C R U E L L AD A L M AT I A N P U P P Y
Table Planning
Affection Defensiveness
Validation Belligerence
Interest Stonewalling
Domineering
Anger
Whining
SadnessNeutral
+4 -4
-1
+4 -3
-1
+4 -2
-1
+4 -2
-1
+2 -2
0
S C O R ES C O R E CAT E G O RYCAT E G O RY
Joy Contempt
Humor Disgust
Coding Your Conversation
Wt+1 = w + rwWt + IHM (Ht)Ht+1 = h + rHHt + IHM (Wt)
The Mathematics Of Marriage
T
T Ht
I
-
+
HM
The Influence A Husband Has On His Wife
CHAPTER 1: WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF FINDING LOVE?
Backus, Peter. “Why I Don’t Have a Girlfriend.” Warwick Economics Summit, 2010.
Drake, Frank. “The Drake Equation” (1961): http://www.activemind .com /Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake _equation.html.
CHAPTER 2: HOW IMPORTANT IS BEAUTY?
Ariely, Dan. Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions. New York: HarperCollins, 2008.
Devlin, Keith. “The Myth That Will Not Go Away.” The Mathematical Association of America, 2007.
Johnston, Victor S. “Mate Choice Decisions: The Role of Facial Beauty.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2006.
Perrett, David. In Your Face: The New Science of Human Attraction. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.
Perrett, David I., D. Michael Burt, Ian S. Penton-Voak, Kieran J. Lee, Duncan A. Rowland, and Rachel Edwards. “Symmetry and Human Facial Attractiveness.” Evolution and Human Behavior, 1999.
Thornhill, Randy, and Steven W. Gangestad. “Facial Attractiveness.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1999.
CHAPTER 3: HOW TO MAXIMIZE A NIGHT ON THE TOWN
Gale, David, and Lloyd Shapley. “College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage.” The American Mathematical Monthly 69 (1), 1962.
Huang, Chien-chung. “Cheating by Men in the Gale-Shapley Stable Matching Algorithm.” Algorithms–ESA 2006.
McVitie, D. G., and L. B. Wilson. (1971). “The Stable Marriage Problem.” Communications of the ACM 14 (7), 1971.
Roth, Alvin E., and Marlinda A. Oliviera Sotomayor. Two-Sided Matching: A Study In Game-Theoretic Modeling and Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
CHAPTER 4: ONLINE DATING
Statistics from: http://www.statistic brain.com/online-dating-statistics/.
Ireland, Molly E., Richard B. Slatcher, Paul W. Eastwick, Lauren E. Scissors, Eli J. Finkel, and James W. Pennebaker. “Language Style Matching Predicts Relationship Initiation and Stability.” Psychological Science 22 (1), 2011.
Rudder, Christian. “Inside OKCupid: The Math of Online Dating” (2013): http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=m9PiPlRuy6E.
Further Reading
———. We experiment on human beings!” (2014): http://blog .okcupid.com/index.php/we -experiment-on-human-beings/.
CHAPTER 5: THE DATING GAME
Axelrod, Robert M. The Evolution of Cooperation (Revised Edition). New York: Basic Books, 2009.
Güth, Werner, Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel, and Elmar Wolfstetter. “Bidding Behavior in Asymmetric Auctions: An Experimental Study.” European Economic Review, 49 (7), 2005.
Sozou, Peter D., and Robert M. Seymour. “Costly but Worthless Gifts Facilitate Courtship.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 272(1575), 2005.
CHAPTER 6: THE MATH OF SEX
Bearman, Peter S., James Moody, and Katherine Stovel. “Chains of Affection: The Structure of Adolescent Romantic and Sexual Networks.” American Journal of Sociology 110 (1), 2004.
Newman, M.E.J. “Spread of Epidemic Disease on Networks.” Physical Review E 66 (1), 2002.
Liljeros, Frederik, Christofer R. Edling, Luis A. Nunes Amaral, H. Eugene Stanley, and Yvonne Åberg. “The Web of Human Sexual Contacts.” Nature 411 (6840), 2001.
Pastor-Satorras, Romauldo, and Alessandro Vespignani. “Epidemic Spreading in Scale-Free Networks.” Physical Review Letters 86 (14), 2001.
CHAPTER 7: WHEN SHOULD YOU SETTLE DOWN?
Ferguson, Thomas S. (1989). “Who Solved the Secretary Problem?” Statistical Science 4 (3), 1989.
Todd, Peter M. “Searching for the next best mate,” in Simulating Social Phenomena, edited by Rosaria Conte, Rainer Hegselmann, Pietro Terna, 419–36. Berlin: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997.
CHAPTER 8: HOW TO OPTIMIZE YOUR WEDDING
Alexander, Ruth. “A Statistically Modeled Wedding” (2014): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news /magazine-25980076.
Bellows, Meghan L., and J. D. Luc Peterson. “Finding an Optimal Seating Chart.” Annals of Improbable Research, 2012.
CHAPTER 9: HOW TO LIVE HAPPILY EVER AFTER
Gottman, John M., James D. Murray, Catherine C. Swanson, Rebecca Tyson, and Kristen R. Swanson. The Mathematics of Marriage: Dynamic Nonlinear Models. Cambridge, Mass.: Basic Books, 2005.