1. How many women are there who live near me?

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Transcript of 1. How many women are there who live near me?

Page 1: 1. How many women are there who live near me?
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1. How many women are there who live near me? (In London -> 4 million women)

2. How many are likely to be of the right age range? (20% -> 800,000 women)

3. How many are likely to be single? (50% -> 400,000 women)

4. How many are likely to have a university degree? (26% -> 104,000 women)

5. How many are likely to be attractive? (5% -> 5,200 women)

6. How many are likely to find me attractive? (5% -> 260 women)

7. How many am I likely to get along well with? (10% -> 26 women)

1. How many people of the right gender are there who live near me? (In London -> 4 million women)

2. How many are likely to be of the right age range? (20% -> 800,000 women)

3. How many are likely to be single? (50% -> 400,000 women)

4. How many are likely to have a university degree? (26% -> 104,000 women)

5. How many are likely to be attractive? (20% -> 20,800 women)

6. How many are likely to find me attractive? (20% -> 4,160 women)

7. How many am I likely to get along well with? (20% -> 832 women)

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C O N D ITI O N A

C O N D ITI O N B

Beauty Is In The Eye Of The Beholder

The Decoy Effect

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Ross

Chandler

Joey

Rachel

Phoebe

Monica

Rachel

Rachel

Phoebe

Joey

Ross

Joey

Phoebe

Monica

Rachel

Ross

Chandler

Chandler

Monica

Phoebe

Monica

Chandler

Joey

Ross

1 S T C H O I C E

1 S T C H O I C E

2 N D C H O I C E

2 N D C H O I C E

3 R D C H O I C E

3 R D C H O I C E

Harry's answer

Hermione's answer

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

A little important

Not important

Very important

Mandatory

D O YO U L I K E Q U I D D I T C H ?

D O YO U L I K E Q U I D D I T C H ?

A R E YO U G O O D AT D E F E AT I N G DA R K W I Z A R D S ?

A R E YO U G O O D AT D E F E AT I N G DA R K W I Z A R D S ?

Harry

Hermione

The answer Harry is looking for from his potential partner

The answer Hermione is looking for from her potential partner

Importance of the question to Harry

Importance of the question to Hermione

Stable Marriages

Dating Algorithms

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Messages Received Last Month vs. Attractiveness125

100

75

50

25

0

least average most

Measured attractiveness

Num

ber o

f mes

sage

s la

st m

onth

10

10

20 -5

-10

−10

20

−5

Faithful

Faithful

DO

N

Cheat

Cheat

B E T T Y

Attractiveness And Messages Received

The Game Of Being Faithful

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Num

ber o

f peo

ple

Number of partners

Cinderella SnowWhite

ArielSleepingBeauty

PrinceCharming

A Pattern Behind Sexual Partners

A Simplified Network

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P(r) = nr – 1 1

n i - 1i=r

Perc

enta

ge c

hanc

e of

suc

cess

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Rejection phase (as a percentage of your dating window)

020 40 60 80 100

tol = 1 tol = 5 tol = 15

Your Chances Of Finding The One

How Many People To Reject

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John and family

Tony and Cherie

Gordon and family

4

2

5

0.95 3.8 94.8

0.20 0.4 95.2

1.00 5.0 100.2

NUMBER OF  G U E S T S X

P R O B A B I L I T Y T H E Y ' L L R S V P W I T H A Y E S P ( X )

E X P E C T E D AT T E N D A N C EE ( X )

R U N N I N GT O TA L

Names

2 0.80 1.6 101.8David and Sam

Probability

100 1500Number of guests attending on the day

85 110

Invitation List

How Many Guests To Expect

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Luke

Bruce

Darth

The Joker

Cruella

Dalmatian puppy

— 20 60 -20 -5 0

40 -10 -30 -5

— -10 -30 -40

-10 — 30 15

-30 30 — 20

-40 15 20 —

40

-10

-30

-5

20

-20

-5

0

60

L U K E B R U C E D A R T H T H E J O K E R

C R U E L L AD A L M AT I A N P U P P Y

Table Planning

Affection Defensiveness

Validation Belligerence

Interest Stonewalling

Domineering

Anger

Whining

SadnessNeutral

+4 -4

-1

+4 -3

-1

+4 -2

-1

+4 -2

-1

+2 -2

0

S C O R ES C O R E CAT E G O RYCAT E G O RY

Joy Contempt

Humor Disgust

Coding Your Conversation

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Wt+1 = w + rwWt + IHM (Ht)Ht+1 = h + rHHt + IHM (Wt)

The Mathematics Of Marriage

T

T Ht

I

-

+

HM

The Influence A Husband Has On His Wife

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CHAPTER 1: WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF FINDING LOVE?

Backus, Peter. “Why I Don’t Have a Girlfriend.” Warwick Economics Summit, 2010.

Drake, Frank. “The Drake Equation” (1961): http://www.activemind .com /Mysterious/Topics/SETI/drake _equation.html.

CHAPTER 2: HOW IMPORTANT IS BEAUTY?

Ariely, Dan. Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions. New York: HarperCollins, 2008.

Devlin, Keith. “The Myth That Will Not Go Away.” The Mathematical Association of America, 2007.

Johnston, Victor S. “Mate Choice Decisions: The Role of Facial Beauty.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2006.

Perrett, David. In Your Face: The New Science of Human Attraction. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.

Perrett, David I., D. Michael Burt, Ian S. Penton-Voak, Kieran J. Lee, Duncan A. Rowland, and Rachel Edwards. “Symmetry and Human Facial Attractiveness.” Evolution and Human Behavior, 1999.

Thornhill, Randy, and Steven W. Gangestad. “Facial Attractiveness.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1999.

CHAPTER 3: HOW TO MAXIMIZE A NIGHT ON THE TOWN

Gale, David, and Lloyd Shapley. “College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage.” The American Mathematical Monthly 69 (1), 1962.

Huang, Chien-chung. “Cheating by Men in the Gale-Shapley Stable Matching Algorithm.” Algorithms–ESA 2006.

McVitie, D. G., and L. B. Wilson. (1971). “The Stable Marriage Problem.” Communications of the ACM 14 (7), 1971.

Roth, Alvin E., and Marlinda A. Oliviera Sotomayor. Two-Sided Matching: A Study In Game-Theoretic Modeling and Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.

CHAPTER 4: ONLINE DATING

Statistics from: http://www.statistic brain.com/online-dating-statistics/.

Ireland, Molly E., Richard B. Slatcher, Paul W. Eastwick, Lauren E. Scissors, Eli J. Finkel, and James W. Pennebaker. “Language Style Matching Predicts Relationship Initiation and Stability.” Psychological Science 22 (1), 2011.

Rudder, Christian. “Inside OKCupid: The Math of Online Dating” (2013): http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=m9PiPlRuy6E.

Further Reading

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———. We experiment on human beings!” (2014): http://blog .okcupid.com/index.php/we -experiment-on-human-beings/.

CHAPTER 5: THE DATING GAME

Axelrod, Robert M. The Evolution of Cooperation (Revised Edition). New York: Basic Books, 2009.

Güth, Werner, Radosveta Ivanova-Stenzel, and Elmar Wolfstetter. “Bidding Behavior in Asymmetric Auctions: An Experimental Study.” European Economic Review, 49 (7), 2005.

Sozou, Peter D., and Robert M. Seymour. “Costly but Worthless Gifts Facilitate Courtship.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 272(1575), 2005.

CHAPTER 6: THE MATH OF SEX

Bearman, Peter S., James Moody, and Katherine Stovel. “Chains of Affection: The Structure of Adolescent Romantic and Sexual Networks.” American Journal of Sociology 110 (1), 2004.

Newman, M.E.J. “Spread of Epidemic Disease on Networks.” Physical Review E 66 (1), 2002.

Liljeros, Frederik, Christofer R. Edling, Luis A. Nunes Amaral, H. Eugene Stanley, and Yvonne Åberg. “The Web of Human Sexual Contacts.” Nature 411 (6840), 2001.

Pastor-Satorras, Romauldo, and Alessandro Vespignani. “Epidemic Spreading in Scale-Free Networks.” Physical Review Letters 86 (14), 2001.

CHAPTER 7: WHEN SHOULD YOU SETTLE DOWN?

Ferguson, Thomas S. (1989). “Who Solved the Secretary Problem?” Statistical Science 4 (3), 1989.

Todd, Peter M. “Searching for the next best mate,” in Simulating Social Phenomena, edited by Rosaria Conte, Rainer Hegselmann, Pietro Terna, 419–36. Berlin: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997.

CHAPTER 8: HOW TO OPTIMIZE YOUR WEDDING

Alexander, Ruth. “A Statistically Modeled Wedding” (2014): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news /magazine-25980076.

Bellows, Meghan L., and J. D. Luc Peterson. “Finding an Optimal Seating Chart.” Annals of Improbable Research, 2012.

CHAPTER 9: HOW TO LIVE HAPPILY EVER AFTER

Gottman, John M., James D. Murray, Catherine C. Swanson, Rebecca Tyson, and Kristen R. Swanson. The Mathematics of Marriage: Dynamic Nonlinear Models. Cambridge, Mass.: Basic Books, 2005.