1 Greg Harper Population Division September 28, 2006 Presented to FSCPE Fall Meeting Reviewing...
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Transcript of 1 Greg Harper Population Division September 28, 2006 Presented to FSCPE Fall Meeting Reviewing...
1
Greg Harper
Population Division
September 28, 2006
Presented to FSCPE Fall Meeting
Reviewing Subcounty Population Estimates
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Overview
• Subcounty population estimates methodology
• Review of housing unit data• Review of subcounty population estimates
Subcounty Population Estimates Methodology
Distributive Housing Unit Method
Change in housing units since the last Census at the subcounty level is used to distribute the estimated county population
Components of Housing Unit Change
• Residential Construction• Mobile Home Placements• Housing Unit Loss
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Housing Unit Estimates Equation
HU06 = HU00 + (NC06 + NM06) – HL06
HU06 = Estimated 2006 Housing Units
HU00 = 2000 Housing Unit Estimates Base
NC06 = Estimated New Residential Construction: 2000 - 2006
NM06 = Estimated New Residential Mobile Homes: 2000 - 2006
HL06 = Estimated Residential Housing Loss: 2000 - 2006
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Estimated Residential Construction
• Building Permits– Compiled by the Census Bureau’s manufacturing and Construction
Division (MCD)
• Nonpermitted Construction– Estimated from annual Survey of Construction
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Mobile Home Placements
• State mobile shipments data distributed to subcounty areas based on the subcounty area’s share of mobile homes in Census 2000
• Sample data retabulated for consistency with 100 percent housing unit data
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Housing Unit Loss Housing Unit Loss
• Data derived from 1997–2003 AHS National Sample• Type of Non-interview Considered a Loss
– Type B, 16 - Interior exposed to the elements– Type C, 30 – Demolished or disaster loss– Type C, 31 – House or mobile home moved
• Categories for Developing Loss Rates– Mobile Homes– Age of Structure (seven categories)
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Summary of Loss RatesSummary of Loss Rates
• 0.295% Total Annual Loss Rate• Mobile Homes: 1.580%• Houses or Apartments
– 1990-2000: 0.058%– 1980-1990: 0.092%– 1970-1980: 0.100%– 1960-1970: 0.178%– 1950-1960: 0.224%– 1940-1950: 0.359%– Pre-1940: 0.395%
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Uncontrolled Subcounty Population Estimate
UHHP06 = HU06 * OCC00 * PPH00
UHHP06 = Uncontrolled 2002 subcounty household population estimate
HU06 = 2006 Housing Unit Estimate
OCC00 = Census 2000 occupancy rate
PPH00 = Census 2000 population per household
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Final Subcounty Population Estimate
SCPOP06 = [UHHP06 * (ARCHHP06/HUMHHP06)] + GQ06
SCPOP06 = Final 2006 subcounty population estimate
UHHP06 = Uncontrolled 2006 household population estimate
ARCHHP06 = 2006 Administrative Records method county household population estimate
HUMHHP06 = 2006 Housing Unit method county household population6 estimate
ARCHHP06/HUMHHP06 = Rake Factor
GQ06 = 2006 group quarters population estimate
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The Housing Unit Review File
• File contains components of housing unit change
• Available in late October
• Two months of review
• Can be made available to local governments
• Data for areas affected by Katrina
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Housing Unit Review File Components
• PER7_2005 = building permits issued in calendar year 2004 * .98
– Assumes six-month lag time between permit issuance and completed construction
– Assumes 2 percent of permits do not result in completed construction
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Housing Unit Review File Components
• MOB7_2005 = New mobile homes allocated to place from July 1, 2004 to July 1, 2005
• NPHB7_2005 = Nonpermitted residential construction allocated to place from July 1, 2004 to July 1, 2005– If permits are issued for locality, NPHB will be 0
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Housing Unit Review File ComponentsHousing Unit Review File Components
• NPHD7_2005 = Estimated housing unit loss from July 1, 2004 to July 1, 2005– The same loss rate is applied to updated estimates of
housing units so the amount of loss will not change much from year to year
• HSG7_2005 = 2005 estimate of housing units
• HSG7_2005 = HSG7_2004 + PER7_2005 + MOB7_2005 + NPHB7_2005 – NPHD7_2005
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Housing Unit ReviewHousing Unit Review
• Use Excel spreadsheet in same format
• Keep housing units consistent with components
• Route local comments through FSCPE agency
• Provide comments in lowest level of geography– Summary level 157 in non-MCD states, 071 in MCD states
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The Subcounty Population Estimates Review File
• File will be made available In February
• Three to four weeks for review
• File can not be shared with local governments
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Subcounty Population Estimates Review File
• VACR_2000 = Census 2000 Vacancy Rate
• PPH_2000 = Census 2000 Population per Household
• HU_2005 = 2005 Housing Unit Estimate
• GQ_2005 = 2005 Group Quarters Population Estimate
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Subcounty Population Estimates Review File
• HHPOP_2005 = 2005 subcounty population estimate– HHPOP_2005 = HU_2005 * PPH_2000* ((100 –
VACR_2000)/100) * RAKE_2005
• POPCEN_2000 = Census 2000 total population
• PBASE_2000 = 2000 Estimates base population– Census 2000 population updated with County Question
Resolution Actions, boundary changes, and administrative geographic revisions.
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Subcounty Population Estimates Review File
• POP_2005 = HHPOP_2005 + GQ_2005
• RAKE_2005 = County population estimate/ county sum of uncontrolled subcounty housing unit population estimates– A rake factor less than 1 indicates faster housing
unit growth than population growth
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Subcounty Population Estimates Review
• Comments should be as specific as possible– Most changes should have already been made to
the housing unit file – If housing units are OK and the county estimate is
OK then problems should be limited to GQ or calculations
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Questions ?