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1 Experiences from compilation of the Hungarian CPI UNECE/ILO Meeting on CPI Geneva, 10-12 May 2006...
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Transcript of 1 Experiences from compilation of the Hungarian CPI UNECE/ILO Meeting on CPI Geneva, 10-12 May 2006...
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Experiences from compilation of the Hungarian CPI
UNECE/ILO Meeting on CPI
Geneva, 10-12 May 2006
Hungarian Central Statistical Office
Consumer Price Statistics Section
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Difficult items –new circumstances
• pharmaceutical products (additional data source, changes in the subsidies)
• town gas (treatment of tariffs)
• airfares (timing of entering of prices)
• gambling (price determination)
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1. Use of additional data sources -Pharmaceutical products
Background• regulated prices for all kind of medicines till
November 2005 (from that time the non-subsidised medicines have recommended prices only)
• the larger part of medicines are subsidised (60-40%)
• the rate of the subsidy can be changed in every quarter of the year (it can be 100%, 90%, 70%, 50% or a fixed amount)
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Pharmaceutical products
Problem
Reduction of the subsidies – parallel with the price increases the index of
medicines
jumped up
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Pharmaceutical products
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Index 178,4 148,1 150,8 153,7 141,6 122,4 114,0 132,9
Weight 0,7 0,8 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,7 1,8 1,8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Index 126,0 110,2 109,3 107,0 107,0 108,6
Weight 1,7 1,9 2,1 2,2 2,2 2,3
CPIs for pharmaceutical products, previous year=100
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Pharmaceutical products Consumer Price Indices, previous year=100
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
%
Total Pharmaceutical products Total without pharmaceuticals
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Pharmaceutical products
Solution
• Enlarge the sample of medicines – cost effectiveness
• Use of some additional data sources besides the traditional data collection practice - administrative database
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2. Treatment of tariffs –Town gas
Background
• price is centrally fixed• same in the whole country• till 2003 there was one single tariff category• from October 2003 there are different
categories according to the quantity of consumption
• October 2003 - a compensation system have been also introduced
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Town gas Problem
• we publish monthly and annual average prices of selected goods and services
• the town gas has significant share in the consumption – we have to publish prices for it
• the ratio of the average prices gives a different result as the published index
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Town gasCategories Base price Current
priceIndex
1 44,8 46,4 103,6105,2
105,1
2 47,9 51,5 107,4
3 56,2 62,7 111,6
4 41,9 42,4 101,3103,05 45,0 47,4 105,4
6 53,3 58,7 110,1
Total 46,1 48,9 106,0
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Town gas
Solution
Publish three separate prices for the first three categories:
consumption up to 1500 m3
1500-3000 m3
over 3000 m3
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3. Timing of entering of prices into the index - Airfares
Background
• Commission regulation
• pricing strategy of the companies
traditional
airlines
low-cost
airlines
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Airfares
Price (HUF) Condition
19500 Budget
29500 Smart choice
41000 Great value
55000 Fully Flexible (B)
103000 Fully Flexible (Y)
119500 Discounted Business
156350 Business
161050 Premium Business
Ticket prices in the case of Hungarian airline
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Airfares Prices of a ticket for a long weekend at the middle of March in the
case of low-cost airlines
Price collection time Wizzair Skyeurope
14 October 2005 15440 29659
15 November 2005 16470 27859
15 December 2005 18640 15980
16 January 2006 18370 20657
15 February 2006 30320 25656
Average price 19245 23388
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Airfares
Problem – question
In which month shall we collect the price of a pre-selected flight?
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Airfares
Solution
• Start to collect prices 6 months in advance
• Apply geometric mean – there is not data on consumer behaviour about the time of booking
• Suppose that the consumer make his decision sensibly
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Price determination – Gambling
BackgroundCommission Regulation (EC) No 1687/98 regarding
the coverage of goods and services of the HICP states in Annex1b that ‘household final monetary consumption expenditure does not cover lotteries and gambling, neither the payment of the service charge to the unit organising the lottery or gambling, nor the residual current transfer that is paid out to the winners (although according to ESA 4.135 service charge is included in final consumption expenditure)’.
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Gambling Problem
• Hungarian CPI contains gambling
• In 2001 the ‘price’ of a lottery ticket was increased from 100 to 130 HUF
• At the same time the prize per ticket was also increased from 43,2 to 58,5 HUF
• How much was the real price increase?
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Gambling Solution
Period Cost of ticket
Prize per ticket
Net loss Net loss (as % of the cost
of one ticket)
1 2 3 4=2-3 5=(2-3)/2
0 100 43,2 56,8 56,8
t 130 58,5 71,5 55,0
% change +30,0 +35,4 +25,9 -3,2
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Thank you for your attention.