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EuropeEurope(Regional Association VI)(Regional Association VI)

Preliminary results of Preliminary results of the WMO national- and regional-level DPM surveys the WMO national- and regional-level DPM surveys

in RA VIin RA VI

Dr Martti Heikinheimo, Chairman of RA VI Dr Martti Heikinheimo, Chairman of RA VI Working Group on DPM Working Group on DPM

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AgendaAgenda

• Frequency and Impacts of hazards

• Regional activities and capacities

• Opportunities and recent initiatives

• Conclusions

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Frequency and Impacts of Frequency and Impacts of hazards in hazards in Europe Europe

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Source: http://www.munichre.de

WORLD MAP OF NATURAL HAZARDS

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Number of Disasters (1980-2005) Number of Disasters (1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

84% of disasters were related to hydro-meteorological factors.

Slides 4%

Flood 35%

Extreme Temperature

11%Drought4%

Earthquake11%

Windstorm 22%

Wild Fires 8%

Epidemic, famine, insects

5%

Volcano0.5%

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Loss of Human Life (1980-2005) Loss of Human Life (1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

70% of loss of life are related to hydro-meteorological factors

Epidemic, famine, insects

0.5%

Wild Fires 0.4%

Windstorm 2%

Earthquake33% Extreme

Temperature59%

Flood 3%

Slides 1.8%

Turkey 80%Italy 20%

Italy 39%France 29%Germany 10%

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Economic Losses (1980-2005) Economic Losses (1980-2005)

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

74% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological factors

Slides 0.6%

Flood 36%

Extreme Temperature

5%

Drought9%

Earthquake26%

Windstorm 21%

Wild Fires 1.9%

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Responses to the WMO Country-Level Responses to the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey in DPM Survey in Europe Europe

44 out of 48 Members responded

Moscow

Rome

Offenbach

Exeter

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Ranking from the country-level surveyRanking from the country-level surveyHIGH&WIDE

IMPACTS

LOW & LOCALIMPACTS

HazardCountries affected

(out of 44)Strong winds 43Heavy snow 36River flooding 36Flash flood 33Heat wave 31Thunderstorm or lightning 30Freezing rain 29Hailstorm 29Cold wave 28Dense fog 27Drought 27Forest or wild land fire 25Earthquakes 22Hazards to aviation 22Landslide or mudslide 21Airborne substances 20Waterborne hazards 20Avalanche 19Marine hazards 19Storm surge 15Tornado 15Coastal flooding 12Smoke, Dust or Haze 12Sandstorm 5Volcanic events 5Desert locust swarm 4Tropical cyclone 4Tsunami 4

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1 Tornado 3 1 4 3 3 12 Tropical cyclone 1 1 0 3 0 13 Thunderstorm or lightning 3 3 4 E 3 4 44 Hailstorm 2 2 3 E 3 3 25 Strong winds 5 4 3 E 3 4 46 Hydrometeorological hazards to 4 4 0 E 3 4 37 Marine hazards 4 4 0 C 3 3 38 River flooding 4 4 2 P 5 3 49 Flash flood 2 3 0 M 4 3 3

10 Coastal flooding 3 3 0 C 3 1 311 Storm surge 1 2 0 C 1 2 312 Landslide or mudslide 1 2 0 M 3 3 213 Airborne hazardous substances 2 3 0 E 2 3 314 Waterborne hazards 4 3 0 E 3 3 115 Heavy snow 4 4 2 M 1 4 216 Avalanche 3 3 1 M 0 4 117 Freezing rain 4 4 1 P 0 3 118 Cold wave 4 1 0 E 2 3 219 Heat wave 2 1 0 E 4 3 320 Drought 3 2 0 5 3 221 Sandstorm 1 1 0 0 0 122 Desert locust swarm 1 1 0 0 0 123 Forest or wild land fire 2 3 0 E 5 4 124 Smoke, dust or haze 2 2 0 3 3 125 Dense fog 3 3 0 P 2 3 226 Earthquakes 1 1 0 E 4 3 127 Tsunami 1 1 0 3 0 128 Volcanic events 1 1 0 SN 3 0 129 Air pollution 3 2 0 LC 3 4 2

Hazards

Ranking hazards according to the threat on life and property using a scale from 1 to 5 (RAVI-WG assessment)

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http://essl.org/ESWD/

European Severe Storms virtual LaboratoryEuropean Severe weather Database

red: tornadoyellow: severe wind gusts, green: large hailblue: heavy rainwhite: funnel cloudpink: gustnadoorange: dust devil

a voluntary based public forum organised by a number individuals from NM(H)Ss and research institutes

Data: 1.1.-17.11.2006

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Source: http://mrnathan.munichre.com/

Natural disaster databases provide detailed information about occurrence and severity of extreme events

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Number of countries issuing warningsNumber of countries issuing warningsHIGH

IMPACTLOWIMPACT

NMS&NMHS’s take major responsibility of issuing

hydrometeorological warnings

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45NMS NHS Combined Service Other

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Number of countries keeping data archivesNumber of countries keeping data archives

• Very few countries maintain impact databases

• Need for strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities for hazard data archiving

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45 Data Archived Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)

HIGHIMPACT

LOWIMPACT

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Contributions of NMHSs to key sectors Contributions of NMHSs to key sectors relevant to Disaster Risk Managementrelevant to Disaster Risk Management

Major focus of NMHS’s: transportation, safety of life at Sea, Health

0

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35

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Most critical factors limiting contributions of NMHSs to disaster

risk management

EuropeRA VI (44 )

GLOBAL (139)

Understanding at the ministerial level of the socio-economic benefits of hydrometeorological products and services 37/40 124/132

Visibility and recognition of NMHSs within the Government as one of the main contributing agencies to disaster risk reduction 35/42 108/134

Operational forecasting and warning services 35/41 119/128

Value-added services in support of hydrometeorological risk assessment 34/40 114/127

Coordination with neighboring or adjacent countries 34/41 115/132

Educational modules that NMHSs could target at Media, Public, disaster risk reduction authorities 33/41 117/134

Public understanding of the effects of hazards 32/41 111/133

Public understanding of warnings 31/41 109/133

Resources and infrastructure to deliver products and services 29/33 105/114

Readiness level system to ensure appropriate response by authorities to the levels of information issued by NMHSs 29/38 106/126

Collaboration and coordination with the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres 26/40 100/130

Lack of understanding by governmental authorities of the value that NMHSs provides 25/41 82/130

Resources for the maintenance of the observing networks 24/40 95/131

Joint training between NMHS staff and disaster risk managers 23/41 91/132

Joint training between NMHS staff and media 23/42 90/135

Joint training between NMHS staff and emergency authorities and managers 21/42 89/133

Legislation or policies regarding the role of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service in DRR 20/41 72/131

Observing networks for hydro-meteorological conditions 20/41 91/129

National disaster risk reduction organizational structures 17/41 49/132

Forecaster training 15/41 74/131

Linkages with other organizations involved in disaster risk reduction 14/42 68/133

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Areas in which WMO's global and regional efforts could Areas in which WMO's global and regional efforts could enhance NMHSs' contribution to disaster risk managementenhance NMHSs' contribution to disaster risk management

Statement

RA VI (Europe)44 / 48

Global139 /187

Technology transfer, capacity building, technical guidelines and technical trainings (e.g. forecasting tools and methodologies, hazard mapping, and other inputs to risk assessment tools, etc.) 1 1

Education, training and public outreach programs in disaster risk reduction (e.g. targeted at National Meteorological and Hydrological Service and their stakeholders) 2 3

Provision of technical advice and specifications (e.g. to enhance observing networks, operational infrastructures, relevant products and services for disaster risk reduction applications) 3 2

Strengthening strategic partnerships with stakeholders (e.g. disaster risk managers, media, etc.)4 6

Advocacy for enhanced visibility of National Meteorological and Hydrological Service’ in the area of disaster risk reduction 5 4

Cost benefit analysis of hydro-meteorological services in disaster risk reduction6 5

Strengthening strategic partnerships with other technical organizations and agencies (e.g. meteorology, hydrology, ocean services, etc.) 7 8

Establishment of regional emergency protocols for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in support of each other in case of disruption of services due to the impact of a disaster 8 10

Resource mobilization9 9

Assist members in the development of the national disaster risk reduction plans10 7

Technology transfer, capacity building, technical guidelines and training

Education, training and public outreach programmes

Provision of technical advice and specifications for DPM applications

Strengthening strategic partnerships with stakeholders

Advocacy for enhanced visibility of NMSs in DPM

Cost benefit analysis of hydrometeorological services in DPM

Strengthening strategic partnerships with other technical organisations

Establishing regional backup protocols for the support of other NMSs

Resource mobilization

Assist members in the development of the national DRR plans

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Regional-level DPM survey is being implemented by RA Regional-level DPM survey is being implemented by RA Working Group on DPM to address issues related to:Working Group on DPM to address issues related to:

i) Providing information on initiatives through various economic groupings and agencies to develop regional strategic plans for implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

ii) Strengthening regional capacity’s in disaster risk management

iii) Identification and prioritization of hazards that pose the greatest risk resulting in a need for cross boundary / sub-regional / regional collaboration and cooperation

iv) Understanding the current capacities and activities in the region in support of disaster risk management, and how these regional capacities and activities support these focus areas, including the projects underway through the working groups of the Regional Association

v) Identification of gaps and needs and cross-boundary challenges for enhancing capacities in support of disaster risk management

vi) Regional priorities with respect to addressing these gaps and needs

vii) Identification of existing and potential future partnerships and concrete project areas of the regional association with other agencies involved in disaster risk reduction.

viii) Prioritization of activities / projects in support of Members capacities in disaster risk management in your Regional Association.

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Regional activities and capacitiesRegional activities and capacities

• RMSCs: Exeter, Rome, Offenbach, Moscow• EUMETSAT• ECMWF• EUMETNET• JRC

• Examples of best practices

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Regional activities and capacities - RSMCsRegional activities and capacities - RSMCs

Exeter, Offenbach, Rome, Moscow• long-range or medium-range forecasting products; • advisories for (tropical cyclones), severe storms and

other dangerous weather phenomena; • tailored aviation or marine products to service users

in a particular area; • trajectories or dispersion of pollutants in case of

nuclear of chemical accident; • information on prolonged adverse weather conditions,

including drought monitoring; • activities related to the World Climate Programme

(WCP) and other WMO or international programmes.

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Regional activities and capacities - RSMCsRegional activities and capacities - RSMCs

• run workshops to enhance products delivered to NMCs in the region (Exeter)

• Guidance on storm-position and track forecasts for the areas affected by tropical storms (Offenbach)

• Provision of UV-B forecasts (Offenbach)• Agrometeorological, aviation, hydrological

forecasts, marine forecasts (Moscow) • Transport model products for environmental

emergency (Exeter, Toulouse)

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ECMWF – ECMWF – The European Centre for The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-)Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-)

• supported by 26 (+8) European States + a multitude of co-operation agreements with international organisations

Objectives and functions:• the development of numerical methods for

medium-range and long range weather forecasting;

• distribution of these to the NMSs of the Member States;

• scientific and technical research directed at the improvement of these forecasts;

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The European Centre for Medium-Range The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-)Weather Forecasts (1975-)

• World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)• European Organisation for the Exploitation of

Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT)• African Centre of Meteorological Applications for

Development (ACMAD)• Joint Research Centre (JRC)• Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear

Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO)• Executive Body of the Convention on Long-Range

Transboundary Air Pollution (CLTRAP)• European Space Agency (ESA)

Partnerhsips

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The European Centre for Medium-Range The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-)Weather Forecasts (1975-)

• collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data.

• make available a proportion of its computing facilities to its Member States for their research;

• assist in implementing the programmes of the WMO; • provide advanced training to the scientific staff of

the Member States in the field of numerical weather prediction;

• make the data in its extensive archives available to outside bodies.

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ECMWF – ECMWF – The European Centre for The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-)Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-)

Extreme Forecast Index

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EUMETSAT - EUMETSAT - Strategic prioritiesStrategic priorities• Ensure continuity of the operational meteorological and

climate observing facilities with adequate satellite and ground infrastructure, and user services;

• Ensure that the European contribution to global operational satellite systems is optimised so that the global system meets the needs of Europe and contributes effectively to the requirements of WMO.

• Contribute to the alleviation of the impact of weather related natural disasters;

• Provide additional services in meteorology, climate and environment for Europe;

• Contribute to capacity building by providing and funding courses

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JRC Joint Research Centre; JRC Joint Research Centre; Institute for Institute for the Protection and the Security of Citizenthe Protection and the Security of Citizen

• Help safeguard EU citizens against damage caused by natural disasters

• Provide research-based, systems-oriented support to EU policies to protect citizens against economic and technological risk.

• Maintain and develop its expertise in information, communication, space and engineering technologies

• Example of added benefits– European flood warning system– System for forest fire risk assessment

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EUMETNET EUMETNET A joint effort 20 European countriesA joint effort 20 European countries

Help members them in providing – leading expertise on weather, climate, environment and related

activities– technical support to the corresponding scientific community, – high quality basic data and products.

Cooperative activities:– observing systems, data bases, data processing and communications

systems, basic forecasting products, research and development, training, coordination of technical assistance to NMSs of non members,

Establish Programmes making use of the expertise and facilities of its Members through an appropriate sharing of tasks and resources

Co-ordinate activities with European organisations such as ECMWF and EUMETSAT

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Opportunities and recent initiativesOpportunities and recent initiatives

• GMES – Global Monitoring of Environment and Security

• EU-Flood Initiative

• (EuroGOOS)

• (IPY)

• (IOC)

• Best practices: – an example of a personalised warning service

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GMESGMES

• The ‘Global Monitoring for Environment and Security’ (GMES) represents a concerted effort to bring data and information providers together with users, so they can better understand each other and make environmental and security-related information available to the people who need it through enhanced or new services.

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34

35

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EU Flood InitiativeEU Flood Initiative

• Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered over 100 major damaging floods, including the catastrophic floods along the Danube and Elbe rivers in summer 2002. Severe floods in 2005 further reinforced the need for concerted action. Since 1998 floods in Europe have caused some 700 deaths, the displacement of about half a million people and at least €25 billion in insured economic losses.

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EU Flood InitiativeEU Flood Initiative

• STRATEGIES -On 18/01/2006 the European Commission proposed a directive on the assessment and management of floods. Its aim is to reduce and manage the risks that floods pose to human health, the environment, infrastructure and property. Under the proposed directive member states would first need to carry out a preliminary assessment to identify the river basins and associated coastal areas at risk of flooding. For such zones they would then need to draw up flood risk maps and then flood risk management plans focused on prevention, protection and preparedness.

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EU Flood InitiativeEU Flood InitiativeGMES- EFAS European Flood Alert System

• Overview of current flood situation in Europe for European Commission services

• Comparable results across Europe• Fostering harmonised exchange of hydrological data and

information in Europe• Provide NMHSs additional information on possible

flood situations more than 3 days in advance based on different weather forecasts

• Interpretation of flood ensemble prediction system forecasts based on full sets of EPS

• Status: development and testing phase at the JRC

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Driver Alert (Varo) • Road weather & Traffic info

• Route planning system

• Mobile warnings

Reaching the individual users:

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Conclusions - CapacitiesConclusions - Capacities

• Major centres: ECMWF, EUMETSAT, ESA, JRC, RSMCs and joint efforts such as EUMETNET provide a back bone for region wide development of operative systems

• Initiatives such as GMES –GeoRisk/PREVIEW provide a holistic approach for bringing together information providers and end users from strategic planning and implementation of new region wide decision support systems

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Conclusions - gapsConclusions - gaps• Geographical variation in national capacities

(mainly ‘W-E’ in RAVI )• Understanding at the ministerial level of the

socio-economic benefits and capacities of NMHS in DPM

• Need for new value-added services: e.g. quick response now-casting services

• Better Coordination with neighbouring countries• Educational modules for NMSs for outreach to

the users• Need for better co-ordination and

standardisation of impact databases – at national and international level

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Conclusions - gapsConclusions - gapsNeed to strengthen processes and links

Government

Other agencies Other agenciesservice providers

Media - Citizens - Rescue units