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Measuring the UnmeasurableUNSC Seminar - 27 February 2012

Walter Radermacher, Chief Statistician of the EU

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Walter Radermacher 2

Measuring the unmeasurable: stretching the

methodological borderlines, changing paradigms

or simply lowering quality thresholds?

Measuring: Traditional: Process or result of

determining the ratio of a physicalquantity (such as length, time,temperature etc.) to a unit ofmeasurement (such as the meter,second or degree Celsius)

Post normal science

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Walter Radermacher 3

Everything can be measured ..Est modus in rebus, sunt certi denique

fines (Horace)

Is this really true?

Or does it depend on thecriteria and technologyused?

We apply seasonaladjustment to measuregrowth rate. Is this an

observation, a model or acomposite of both? http://www.mathacadem

y.com/pr/minitext/escher

/big.asp?IMAGE=fish_a

nd_scaleshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horace

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Walter Radermacher 4

http://claesjohnson.blogspot.com/2009/11/vasa-ship.htmlhttp://ulkotours.com/blog/the-vasa-museum-stockholm/

The History of the Vasa

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Walter Radermacher

From theoretical concept to measurable variable

Axioms andvalidity,

paradigms

The limits of ourmind

Creative operationalisation;thinking the unthinkable

Breaking therules?

Constraints: costs, time,confidentiality

Relevance

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Walter Radermacher 6

Consistency with theory

Political relevance Measurability

Which theory???

Who decides??? Reliability, timeliness, ???

Quality =

Fitness for

Purpose

Quality in statistics: fundamental aspects

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Walter Radermacher 7

Recent developments / change in paradigm

New methods and techniques

Access to protected microdata

Remote sensing, GIS

ICT Modelling (Intra- vs. Extrapolation)

Facts vs. Feelings

New theories ??Specific

purpose

Multi-

purpose

Primary data

coherent meso data

Indicators

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Walter Radermacher 8

Clandestine

Fiction

Future

Too costly

No meter

Price without

market

Opinion

Measurable

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Walter Radermacher 9

Re-defining what is measurable

Where theory fails: natural stocks, prices without amarket

Where paradigms might change: quality of life,happiness, wellbeing.

Where methods might improve: illegal activities (human

trafficking, black market, money laundering)

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Walter Radermacher 10

Society is asking for more!

Where do we draw the line between facts and feelings?

Where do we draw the line between official / non-officialstatistics?

What defines the credibility of statistics?

How far do we want to go?