1 Envisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Ellen Hanak Public Policy Institute of...
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Transcript of 1 Envisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Ellen Hanak Public Policy Institute of...
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Envisioning Futures for theEnvisioning Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Ellen Hanak Ellen Hanak Public Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California
Jay LundJay LundUniversity of California, DavisUniversity of California, Davis
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Economists:Ellen Hanak, PPICRichard Howitt, UC Davis
Engineers:Jay Lund, UC DavisWilliam Fleenor, UC Davis
Geologist:Jeffrey Mount, UC Davis
Biologist:Peter Moyle, UC Davis
Authored by Interdisciplinary Team
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Major ThemesMajor Themes
Current Delta is unsustainable for almost all Current Delta is unsustainable for almost all stakeholdersstakeholders
Improved understanding of the Delta provides Improved understanding of the Delta provides opportunities for new solutionsopportunities for new solutions
Promising alternatives existPromising alternatives exist
Most Delta users have ability to adaptMost Delta users have ability to adapt
Promising solutions are unlikely to arise from a Promising solutions are unlikely to arise from a stakeholder-only processstakeholder-only process
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OutlineOutline
Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives
Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives
RecommendationsRecommendations
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The Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaThe Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Above sea level
Sea level to -10 feet
-10 feet to -15 feet
-15 feet and below
Exportpumps
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Why the Delta Matters to CaliforniansWhy the Delta Matters to Californians
Water Supply
Recreation
Ecosystem
Housing
Agriculture
Infrastructure
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OutlineOutline
Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives
Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives
Conclusions and recommendationsConclusions and recommendations
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A Three-pronged CrisisA Three-pronged Crisis
Levees at increasing riskLevees at increasing risk
– Sea level rise and sinking landSea level rise and sinking land
– Floods and earthquakesFloods and earthquakes
Steep declines in many fish speciesSteep declines in many fish species
– Many are “listed”Many are “listed”
– Culprits: invasive species, habitat loss, Culprits: invasive species, habitat loss, pumpspumps
Governing institutions lackingGoverning institutions lacking
– Resurgence of legal actionsResurgence of legal actions
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Emerging Policy ResponsesEmerging Policy Responses
New studies on fish declines and levee risksNew studies on fish declines and levee risks
Emergency funds for levee repairsEmergency funds for levee repairs
““Delta Vision” processDelta Vision” process
Bay-Delta Conservation PlanBay-Delta Conservation Plan
Stakeholders promoting several approachesStakeholders promoting several approaches
– Shoring up levees, peripheral canal, Shoring up levees, peripheral canal, reduced water exportsreduced water exports
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OutlineOutline
Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives
Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives
RecommendationsRecommendations
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Since 1920s, California Policy Since 1920s, California Policy Has Aimed to Keep the Delta FreshHas Aimed to Keep the Delta Fresh
1945 USBR report
Delta farmers and water exporters benefit from low salinityDelta farmers and water exporters benefit from low salinity
,
,
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In 1940s, Central Valley Project Created In 1940s, Central Valley Project Created “Hydraulic Barrier” for Water Exports“Hydraulic Barrier” for Water Exports
Arrows show movement of fresh water from storage
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Hydraulic Barrier Prevents Seasonal Hydraulic Barrier Prevents Seasonal and Dry-year Salinity Incursionsand Dry-year Salinity Incursions
1870s drought
Summers, 1908-1917
Hydraulic barrier(since 1940s)
Dotted lines show extent of saltwater incursions
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But Static, Freshwater Delta Not Good for But Static, Freshwater Delta Not Good for Native SpeciesNative Species
Native species evolved in a Native species evolved in a fluctuating Deltafluctuating Delta
Alien species have taken hold and Alien species have taken hold and harm native speciesharm native species
Alien species do best with constant Alien species do best with constant salinity (fresh or saline)salinity (fresh or saline)
Restoring fluctuating conditions Restoring fluctuating conditions may be key to native species’ may be key to native species’ survivalsurvival
Overbite clam
Brazilian waterweed
Asiatic clam
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OutlineOutline
Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives
Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives
RecommendationsRecommendations
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Nine Delta AlternativesNine Delta Alternatives
Freshwater DeltaFreshwater Delta– Two levee-based alternativesTwo levee-based alternatives– Physical salinity barrierPhysical salinity barrier
Fluctuating DeltaFluctuating Delta– Two peripheral canal alternativesTwo peripheral canal alternatives– Armored-island aqueductArmored-island aqueduct
Reduced-exports Delta (*also fluctuating)Reduced-exports Delta (*also fluctuating)– Opportunistic Delta*Opportunistic Delta*– Eco-Delta*Eco-Delta*– Abandoned DeltaAbandoned Delta
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5) South Delta Restoration Aqueduct: 5) South Delta Restoration Aqueduct: A New Peripheral Canal IdeaA New Peripheral Canal Idea
Improves South Improves South Delta and lower San Delta and lower San Joaquin River water Joaquin River water qualityquality
Lower San Joaquin Lower San Joaquin flood bypass for flood bypass for flood control and flood control and ecosystem benefitsecosystem benefits
Main rivers
Delta waterways
Brackish tidal area
Freshwater tidal area
Canal Optional canal
Release facility
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6) Armored-Island Aqueduct: 6) Armored-Island Aqueduct: A Through-Delta SolutionA Through-Delta Solution
Keeps eastern Delta Keeps eastern Delta freshfresh
Allows western and Allows western and central Delta to central Delta to fluctuatefluctuate
Channel to river
Dredged channel
Fortified levee
Potential flooded islands
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8) Eco-Delta: An Example of8) Eco-Delta: An Example of Local Specialization Local Specialization
Allows opportunistic Allows opportunistic pumping, but at pumping, but at lower levelslower levels
Main rivers
Delta waterways
Flooded islands/bypass
Brackish tidal area
Freshwater tidal area
Upland game/waterfowl
Experimental
Wetlands
Possible storage
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OutlineOutline
Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives
Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives
RecommendationsRecommendations
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Screening CriteriaScreening Criteria
Ecosystem performanceEcosystem performance
Water exportsWater exports
Economic and financial costsEconomic and financial costs
– Focus: water supply and salinityFocus: water supply and salinity
– Tools: models and existing studiesTools: models and existing studies
Other Delta services (qualitative)Other Delta services (qualitative)
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Fluctuating Delta AlternativesFluctuating Delta AlternativesAre Most PromisingAre Most Promising
Alternatives Environmental Performance
Annual Water Exports
Economic and Financial Costs
1. Levees as Usual Poor 0 – 6+ maf ~$2 Billion + failures
2. Fortress Delta Poor
6+ maf
> $4 Billion + lost islands
3. Saltwater Barrier Poor $2 – 3 Billion + lost islands
4. Peripheral Canal Plus Promising -allows Delta to
fluctuate
$2 – 3 Billion + < $70 M/year
5. South Delta Aqueduct $2 – 3 Billion + < $41 M/year
6. Armored-Island Aqueduct
Mixed $1 – 2 Billion + < $30 M/year
7. Opportunistic Delta Promising 2 – 8 maf $0.7 – 2.2 Billion + < $170 M/year
8. Eco-Delta Best? 1 – 5 maf Several $ Billion + < $600 M/year
9. Abandoned Delta Poor 0 $500 Million + ~$1.2 Billion/year
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OutlineOutline
Why the Delta mattersWhy the Delta matters
California’s Delta crisisCalifornia’s Delta crisis
New thinking about the ecosystemNew thinking about the ecosystem
Some long-term alternativesSome long-term alternatives
Screening of alternativesScreening of alternatives
RecommendationsRecommendations
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Steps Needed for a Long-term SolutionSteps Needed for a Long-term Solution
Focus on promising alternativesFocus on promising alternatives
Create technical track to explore solutions with Create technical track to explore solutions with problem-solving R&Dproblem-solving R&D
Enhance regional and statewide representation Enhance regional and statewide representation in Delta land use decisions (e.g. SF BCDC)in Delta land use decisions (e.g. SF BCDC)
Implement “beneficiaries pay” financingImplement “beneficiaries pay” financing
Establish mitigation mechanisms – everyone will Establish mitigation mechanisms – everyone will notnot “get better together”“get better together”
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““No Regrets” Short-term ActionsNo Regrets” Short-term Actions
Emergency preparednessEmergency preparedness
““Do not resuscitate” list for some islandsDo not resuscitate” list for some islands
Delta land useDelta land use
– Flood control guidelines for urbanizationFlood control guidelines for urbanization
– Habitat protectionHabitat protection
Restoration projects for pelagic fish habitatRestoration projects for pelagic fish habitat
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Questions?Questions?
For the full report, research brief, and other For the full report, research brief, and other materials, go to: materials, go to: www.ppic.orgwww.ppic.org