1. Energy Consumption 1

8/3/2019 1. Energy Consumption 1

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Energy Consumption 1


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New Reserves


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Exajoules

/yr

(exa = 1018)

10

100

1000

2000

Annual World Energy Consumption


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Year


(exa = 1018)


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Gtoe=Gigatons of oil equivalent


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Recent World Temperature


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Global average ~ 2 kW ~ 173 MJ/da


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Per Capita Energy Consumption


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Per Capita Quality of Life Consumption


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Carbon Emission vs GDP


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11World Fastest Growing City


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Dubai


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Consumption/Population


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Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998

4.52

2.72.96

0.286

1.21

0.286

0.828

0

1

2

3

4

5

TW

Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas Hydro Renew

Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)


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Energy From Renewables, 1998

10-5

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Elect Heat EtOH Wind Solar PVSolar Th.Low T Sol HtHydro Geoth MarineElec Heat EtOH Wind Sol PV SolTh LowT Sol Hydro Geoth Marine

TW

Biomass

5E-5

1E-1

2E-3

1E-4

1.6E-3

3E-1

1E-2

7E-5


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(in the U.S. in 2002)

Today: Production Cost of Electricity

1-4 2.3-5.0 6-8 5-7 6-7

25-50

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

Cost


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Energy Costs

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

$/GJ

Coal Oil Biomass Elect

Brazil E

urope

$0.05/kW-hr

www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea


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Energy Reserves and Resources

0200004000060000

80000100000120000140000160000

180000

(Exa)J

Oil

Rsv

Oil

Res

Gas

Rsv

Gas

Res

Coal

Rsv

Coal

Res

Unconv

Conv

Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)

Oil 40-78 51-151

Gas 68-176 207-590

Coal 224 2160

Rsv=Reserves

Res=Resources


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Conclusions

Abundant, Inexpensive Resource Base of Fossil Fuels

Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generationunless/until:

technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, orunpriced externalities are introduced (e.g., environmentally

-driven carbon taxes)


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ENERGY RESOURCE TIME SCALES

OIL 10s of years

COAL 100s of years FISSION 1000s of years

FUSION 1000s of years

(10,000s of years)


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P(t),

TW

Hubbert Model Applied to WorldResources


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GLOBAL CHANGE TIME HORIZONS

ATMOSPHERE 100s of years

FORESTS 75 years SCIENTIFIC

INSTITUTIONS 15+ years

GOVERNMENTS 5 years

Matching Supply and


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Matching Supply andDemand

Currently end use well-matched to physical properties of resources

Oil (liquid)

Gas (gas)

Coal (solid)

Transportation

Home/Light Industry

ManufacturingConv to e-

Pump it around

Move to user

Matching Supply and


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If deplete oil (or national security issue for oil), then liquify gas,coal

Oil (liquid)

Gas (gas)

Coal (solid)

Transportation

Home/Light Industry


Pump it around

Move to user

Matching Supply and


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If carbon constraint to 550 ppm and sequestration works

Oil (liquid)

Gas (gas)

Coal (solid)

Transportation

Home/Light Industry


Pump it around

Move to user

-CO2

CO2 sequestration, the storage of carbon dioxide as a solid through biological or physical processes

Matching Supply and


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If carbon constraint to


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If carbon constraint to 550 ppm andsequestration does notwork

Oil (liquid)

Gas (gas)

Coal (solid)

Transportation

Home/Light Industry

Manufacturing

Pump it around

Nuclear

Solar ?

?


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Nuclear Energy

1963 Responsible men spoke of atomic power so cheap it wouldntpay to meter it.

NH lights no switches for 5 years!

MAJOR NUCLEAR PROBLEMS:

Environmental Damage

Nuclear Waste

Weapons Potential

Catastrophic Disasters


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Alternatives to Nuclear energy

Coal

Conservation and Cogeneration

Small Hydro Oil and Natural Gas

Biomass

Other Renewables Fusion


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Globe and Mail (Spring 2007)

Gas Mileage

(mpg)

Purchase


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The Difficult Energy Questions

Should we build nuclear reactors?

How can we reduce CO2 emissions? (Coming!)

Population increase impact?

What is the environmental impact of our energyconsumption?

Does energy policy affect national security?

Should an energy policy be independent ofadministrative Ideology?


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LLE

The LLE is the product of the probability fora risk to cause death and theconsequences in terms of lost lifeexpectancy if it does cause death. As an

example, statistics indicate that an average40-year-old person will live another 37.3years, so if that person takes a risk thathas a 1% chance of being immediatelyfatal, it causes an LLE of 0.373 years (0.01x 37.3).

It should be clear that this does not meanthat he will die 0.373 years sooner as a

result of taking this risk. But if 1,000 peoplehis age took this risk, 10 might dieimmediately, having their lives shortenedby 37.3 years, while the other 990 wouldnot have their lives shortened at all.Hence, the average lost lifetime for the1,000 people would be 0.373 years.

Of course, most risks are with us to varyingextents at all ages and the effects must beadded up over a lifetime, which makes thecalculations somewhat complex.


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Energy Policy

1. There is disagreement even widespread ignorance aboutsome fundamental facts.

2. There is great uncertainty about what results the most commonlysuggested energy policies might produce.

3. There is no easy way to choose between short-term and long-term objectives. What is best for most of us this year may makethings very unpleasant in 1990 and vice versa.

4. There is no clear national consensus on the major long-term goalsof the United States (Canadas?) energy policy

S.H. Schurr, et. al., Energy in Americas Future,


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The Difficult Energy Questions








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Human Population Analogy


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Billions

Population History


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Population History


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Population!


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THE DIFFICULT ENERGY QUESTIONS







1. Energy Consumption 1

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