1. Energy Consumption 1

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    Energy Consumption 1

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    New Reserves

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    Exajoules

    /yr

    (exa = 1018)

    10

    100

    1000

    2000

    Annual World Energy Consumption

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    Year

    Annual World Energy Consumption

    (exa = 1018)

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    Annual World Energy Consumption

    Gtoe=Gigatons of oil equivalent

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    Recent World Temperature

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    Global average ~ 2 kW ~ 173 MJ/da

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    Per Capita Energy Consumption

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    Per Capita Quality of Life Consumption

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    Carbon Emission vs GDP

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    11World Fastest Growing City

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    Dubai

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    Consumption/Population

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    Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998

    4.52

    2.72.96

    0.286

    1.21

    0.286

    0.828

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    TW

    Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas Hydro Renew

    Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)

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    Energy From Renewables, 1998

    10-5

    0.0001

    0.001

    0.01

    0.1

    1

    Elect Heat EtOH Wind Solar PVSolar Th.Low T Sol HtHydro Geoth MarineElec Heat EtOH Wind Sol PV SolTh LowT Sol Hydro Geoth Marine

    TW

    Biomass

    5E-5

    1E-1

    2E-3

    1E-4

    1.6E-3

    3E-1

    1E-2

    7E-5

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    (in the U.S. in 2002)

    Today: Production Cost of Electricity

    1-4 2.3-5.0 6-8 5-7 6-7

    25-50

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Coal Gas Oil Wind Nuclear Solar

    Cost

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    Energy Costs

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    $/GJ

    Coal Oil Biomass Elect

    Brazil E

    urope

    $0.05/kW-hr

    www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea

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    Energy Reserves and Resources

    0200004000060000

    80000100000120000140000160000

    180000

    (Exa)J

    Oil

    Rsv

    Oil

    Res

    Gas

    Rsv

    Gas

    Res

    Coal

    Rsv

    Coal

    Res

    Unconv

    Conv

    Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr) Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)

    Oil 40-78 51-151

    Gas 68-176 207-590

    Coal 224 2160

    Rsv=Reserves

    Res=Resources

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    Conclusions

    Abundant, Inexpensive Resource Base of Fossil Fuels

    Renewables will not play a large role in primary power generationunless/until:

    technological/cost breakthroughs are achieved, orunpriced externalities are introduced (e.g., environmentally

    -driven carbon taxes)

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    ENERGY RESOURCE TIME SCALES

    OIL 10s of years

    COAL 100s of years FISSION 1000s of years

    FUSION 1000s of years

    (10,000s of years)

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    P(t),

    TW

    Hubbert Model Applied to WorldResources

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    GLOBAL CHANGE TIME HORIZONS

    ATMOSPHERE 100s of years

    FORESTS 75 years SCIENTIFIC

    INSTITUTIONS 15+ years

    GOVERNMENTS 5 years

    Matching Supply and

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    Matching Supply andDemand

    Currently end use well-matched to physical properties of resources

    Oil (liquid)

    Gas (gas)

    Coal (solid)

    Transportation

    Home/Light Industry

    ManufacturingConv to e-

    Pump it around

    Move to user

    Matching Supply and

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    Matching Supply andDemand

    If deplete oil (or national security issue for oil), then liquify gas,coal

    Oil (liquid)

    Gas (gas)

    Coal (solid)

    Transportation

    Home/Light Industry

    ManufacturingConv to e-

    Pump it around

    Move to user

    Matching Supply and

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    Matching Supply andDemand

    If carbon constraint to 550 ppm and sequestration works

    Oil (liquid)

    Gas (gas)

    Coal (solid)

    Transportation

    Home/Light Industry

    ManufacturingConv to e-

    Pump it around

    Move to user

    -CO2

    CO2 sequestration, the storage of carbon dioxide as a solid through biological or physical processes

    Matching Supply and

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    Matching Supply andDemand

    If carbon constraint to

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    Matching Supply andDemand

    If carbon constraint to 550 ppm andsequestration does notwork

    Oil (liquid)

    Gas (gas)

    Coal (solid)

    Transportation

    Home/Light Industry

    Manufacturing

    Pump it around

    Nuclear

    Solar ?

    ?

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    Nuclear Energy

    1963 Responsible men spoke of atomic power so cheap it wouldntpay to meter it.

    NH lights no switches for 5 years!

    MAJOR NUCLEAR PROBLEMS:

    Environmental Damage

    Nuclear Waste

    Weapons Potential

    Catastrophic Disasters

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    Alternatives to Nuclear energy

    Coal

    Conservation and Cogeneration

    Small Hydro Oil and Natural Gas

    Biomass

    Other Renewables Fusion

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    Globe and Mail (Spring 2007)

    Gas Mileage

    (mpg)

    Purchase

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    The Difficult Energy Questions

    Should we build nuclear reactors?

    How can we reduce CO2 emissions? (Coming!)

    Population increase impact?

    What is the environmental impact of our energyconsumption?

    Does energy policy affect national security?

    Should an energy policy be independent ofadministrative Ideology?

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    LLE

    The LLE is the product of the probability fora risk to cause death and theconsequences in terms of lost lifeexpectancy if it does cause death. As an

    example, statistics indicate that an average40-year-old person will live another 37.3years, so if that person takes a risk thathas a 1% chance of being immediatelyfatal, it causes an LLE of 0.373 years (0.01x 37.3).

    It should be clear that this does not meanthat he will die 0.373 years sooner as a

    result of taking this risk. But if 1,000 peoplehis age took this risk, 10 might dieimmediately, having their lives shortenedby 37.3 years, while the other 990 wouldnot have their lives shortened at all.Hence, the average lost lifetime for the1,000 people would be 0.373 years.

    Of course, most risks are with us to varyingextents at all ages and the effects must beadded up over a lifetime, which makes thecalculations somewhat complex.

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    Energy Policy

    1. There is disagreement even widespread ignorance aboutsome fundamental facts.

    2. There is great uncertainty about what results the most commonlysuggested energy policies might produce.

    3. There is no easy way to choose between short-term and long-term objectives. What is best for most of us this year may makethings very unpleasant in 1990 and vice versa.

    4. There is no clear national consensus on the major long-term goalsof the United States (Canadas?) energy policy

    S.H. Schurr, et. al., Energy in Americas Future,

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    The Difficult Energy Questions

    Should we build nuclear reactors?

    How can we reduce CO2 emissions? (Coming!)

    Population increase impact?

    What is the environmental impact of our energyconsumption?

    Does energy policy affect national security?

    Should an energy policy be independent ofadministrative Ideology?

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    Human Population Analogy

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    Billions

    Population History

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    Population History

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    Population!

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    THE DIFFICULT ENERGY QUESTIONS

    Should we build nuclear reactors?

    How can we reduce CO2 emissions? (Coming!)

    Population increase impact?

    What is the environmental impact of our energyconsumption?

    Does energy policy affect national security?

    Should an energy policy be independent ofadministrative Ideology?