1 Effects-based Operations: An Overview Dr. Maris “Buster” McCrabb (757) 508-8735...

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Effects-based Operations:An Overview

Dr. Maris “Buster” McCrabb

(757) 508-8735

[email protected]

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Overview

• Introduction

• Definitions

• Models

• ATD Technologies

• EBO in Operation ALLIED FORCE

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GlobalSituation

Awareness

CRISIS

AirObjectives

AirTasks T

ASK

LEVEL

ANALYSIS

Now

Air & SpaceControl

ForceSupport

Force Application

ForceEnhancement

Effects-Based Operations

Bridge 4 Destroyed

Destroy Bridge 4

Disrupt

Delivery of POLEffect

TasksDestroy Bridge 6

Plan

Indicators

Bridge 6 Destroyed

Physical effects that lead to…

…desired behavioral outcomes.

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Effects-Based Operations

The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actionsproduce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time

EBO …

• is an approach, a way of thinking

• supports all missions from HUMRO to MTW

• utilizes lethal and nonlethal force

• offers an approach that models an “Enemy as a System”

• offers Economy-of-Force

• offers an approach to Effects-based Dynamic ISR Management

EBO …

• is an approach, a way of thinking

• supports all missions from HUMRO to MTW

• utilizes lethal and nonlethal force

• offers an approach that models an “Enemy as a System”

• offers Economy-of-Force

• offers an approach to Effects-based Dynamic ISR Management

"Effects based operations is a methodology for planning, executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required to achieve desired national security objectives.“ AFDD 1

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Comparison of Effects-Based, Objectives-Based and Targets-Based Operations

Effects-Based

Target-Based

Objectives-Based(Strategies-To Task)

Target-Based (TBO)

• ID enemy entities, destroy them• Focus: physical effects at target level• Looks at 1st and 2nd order effects only• No dynamic assessment• No explicit timing considerations

Objectives-Based (OBO) (Strategies-to-Task)• Strategies at one level become objectives for next• Focus: objectives at every level • Considers linkages between objectives and strategies to achieve those objectives• No dynamic assessment• No explicit timing considerations

Effects-Based (EBO) • Address causality between actions and effects• Focus: desired effects (physical and behavioral)• Encompass both target and objective-based methods• Models the enemy-as-a-system w/adversary reaction• Considers Direct, Indirect, Complex (synergistic), Cumulative & Cascading effects• Timing explicitly considered• “Overcoming” mechanism stated & assessed

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Definitions

• No doctrinal template in approved Joint doctrine

– USAF Doctrine has rudimentary definitions

• Physical => Behavioral

– destroy (damage), disrupt (Kosovo), degrade, dislocate, decapitate, divert, delay (isolate), deny (halt), deceive, defend, deter (D11)

– coerce: punish, threaten (George, Schelling)

• Historically and theoretically behavioral most important but hardest

– therefore, traditionally military operations focus on physical effects

• Major problems with behavioral effects:

– causality between action & effect

– observability of effect

– uncertainty of intervening variables

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AFDD 2-1 Definitions

• Direct Effect

• Indirect Effect

• “Effects” described

• Limitations:

– Precise definitions of “effects”

– Effects versus Objectives

– Conflating Mechanism

– Connections between Direct & Indirect Effects

– Complex or Cascading Effects

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AFDD 2-1 Definitions

• Direct Effect: “Result of actions with no intervening effect or mechanism between act and outcome. Direct effects are usually immediate and easily recognizable.” (AKA 1st order effect)

• Indirect Effect: “Result created through an intermediate effect or mechanism to produce the final outcome,which may be physical or psychological in nature. Indirect effects tend to be delayed,and may be difficult to recognize.” (AKA 2nd, 3rd,…, n-order effects)

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Effect

• A result from some action

– Assumes a causal connection

– “IF x THEN y” is a statement of (direct) effect

• Point of View dependent

Action

Cause

Action

EffectEffect

AFDD 2-1 EBO CONOPS

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Mechanism

• Actions Cause Results (Effects)

• Mechanism explains cause

– Rationale explains purpose (Commander’s Intent)

• IF (x; action) THEN (y; result) BECAUSE (a, b, … ; mechanism)

– Uncertainty in action, result and cause suggest a probability-based approach (Bayes)

• Clausewitz: if you defeat an enemy’s fielded force, then a rational leader will submit because his country is undefended.

• Douhet: if you terrorize the population, then a rational leader will submit because the populace will rise up, rebel, and force submission.

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Mechanism continued

• Slessor: if you interdict infrastructure or supply, then fielded forces will be less combat capable, making them easier to defeat which leads to…an undefended country.

• Schelling: if you threaten things leadership value, then they will submit rather than lose those things.

• Warden: if you isolate leadership, then they are prevented from doing something which would thwart our will. They submit because the imposed paralysis prevents them from doing otherwise.

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Mechanism finished

• In reality these are few, if any, single mechanisms at work.

– Direct and indirect effects combine to form complex and cumulative effects

– Effects cascade for good or ill

• Predicting, then assessing, how physical actions spawn behavioral effects (I.e., results from actions) is the major challenge.

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Actions & Tasks

• Tasks are work (actions) to be done

– Operationally, tasks are normally assigned to tactical units (squadrons, brigades, CVBGs, etc.)

• EBO theory is agnostic to the originator of action

Mechanism (Cause)

Action (Tasks)

Effect (Result)

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Direct & Indirect Effects

• Direct Effects result from (caused by) direct actions.

• Indirect Effects result from (caused by) indirect actions.

• Indirect actions may be the result of a (previous) direct effect.

Mechanism (Cause)

Direct Action (Tasks)

Direct Effect (Result)

Mechanism (Cause)

Direct Effect (Result) & Indirect Action

Indirect Effect (Result)

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Complex & Cumulative Effects

• Complex Effects are a combination of effects, either direct or indirect, at an instant in time & space.

– Mechanism explains how these effect combine

• Cumulative effects are complex effects as viewed over some time interval.

– Effects do have persistence, though that generally varies

Direct Effect (Result) Indirect Effect (Result) Indirect Effect (Result)

Complex/Cumulative Effect (Result)

Mechanism (Cause)

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Cascading Effects

• Cascading effects are direct, indirect, complex or cumulative effects that ripple through a system

– Captures the notions of an acceleration or a multiplier effect (from economics)

– Requires a systems perspective: relationships, dependencies, or connections between elements

• Cascading effects can be vicious or virtuous but which they are is point of view (POV) dependent

– What’s bad for the bad guys is good from our POV but bad from theirs

– In a HUMRO, what’s good for the object of our attention is good from our POV and theirs

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Effects-Based Plan Representation

Objective

Indicator

Effect Desired

• direct effect• indirect effect• complex effect• cumulative effect

EBO Terms

Task/Activity

(Isolate the Battlefield)

(Deny Access)

(Mechanism)

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Indicators

• Are not effects

• Better to be observable then not but “not seen” does not mean “not there”

Win the War

Destroy Will Stop Second Echelon(Isolate the Battlefield)

Prevent RiverCrossing

(Deny Access)

DestroyFuel Res.

Carpet Bomb Drop Leaflets

DestroyBr1

DestroyBr2

DMPI 1 DMPI 2

Acceleration of

Straggler Count

River Clear

Units in Bivouac

Traffic Density

Objective/Task/ActivityEffect Desired

Indicator

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Strategy: Definitions

• The art & science of employing the armed forces…to secure the objectives of national policy by the application of force or the threat of force. [JP 1-02]

• A means1 to accomplish an end. [AFDD 2-1]

• The use of engagements for the object of the war. [Clausewitz]

• The art of distributing & applying military means2 to fulfill the ends of policy. [B.H. Liddell Hart]

• A plan of action designed in order to achieve some end; a purpose together with a system of measures for its accomplishment. [RADM J.C. Wylie]

1tool, implement 2resources

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Strategy, Objectives & Effects

• Goal, Strategic Aim, End-State: the realm of policy—the decisive results

– An end-state is the set of required conditions that achieve the strategic objectives. [JP 3-0]

• Operational Art: determines where, when & for what purposes [why2]…forces will be employed

– Use resources efficiently & effectively to achieve strategic objectives [JP 3-0]

– Defines the parameters of operations (restraints & constraints) [FMFM 1-1]

• Effects: the result (outcomes) of direct actions (e.g., missions) and “indirect” actions (e.g., functions) [AFDD 2-1]

2rationale

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Ends, Ways, Means, Risk

• Ends: What military conditions must be produced…to achieve the strategic goal?

• Ways: What sequence of actions is most likely to produce [those] condition(s)?

• Means2: How should resources…be applied to accomplish that sequence of actions?

• Risk: What is the likely cost…in performing that sequence of actions

[JP 3-0]

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Strategy, CONOPS & COA

• A verbal or graphic statement, in broad outline, of a commander’s assumptions or intent in regard to an operation….It is included primarily for additional clarity of purpose. [JP 1-02]

– Commander’s Intent: end-state, purpose, method & risk

• A plan that would accomplish a mission. Includes CONOPS. Basis for the development of an OPLAN or OPORD. [JP 1-02]

– Tasks—work to be done—given to tactical (engagement level) units to accomplish.

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Models

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Basic Model

Actions cause..

…direct effects and...

..indirect effects

AttackFielded Forces &

SelectedInfrastructure

Fielded ForcesIsolated; Supply &Logistics Reduced

BSALosses

AdvantageOver BiH

MECHANISM MECHANISM

Mechanism explains Cause..

BosnianSerbs

Accede toNATO’sDemands

MECHANISM

Key Requirements:1. Predictive Models (e.g., IPB, Adversarial)2. Common Ontology3. Robust MS&A (e.g., Wargaming)

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Monitor Assess Plan Execute

Entities (Shallow Extraction)

Relationships(Intermediate Extraction)

Discovered & Inferred Knowledge

Events(Intermediate, Deep Extraction)

Level 0

Sub-object Data Assoc. & Estimation

Level 1

ObjectRefinement

Level 2Situation

Refinement

Level 3Impact

Assessment

Level 4Process

Refinement

JIPB, ONA, PBA & EBO

DefineEnvironment

DescribeEnvironment’s

Effects

EvaluateAdversary

DetermineAdversary

COAsOER

Databases&

Sensors

Effects-based operations is the

‘engine’ that drives IPB, dynamic C2,

and ISR management.

Supports JP 3-56.1 Stage I: Operational Environment Research

AF/XO IPB White Paper

ONA: JIPB + COA Options (JFHQ Con. Of Employment)

PBA: JIPB + ISR Planning + ISR Management (PBA CONOPS)

Increased Emphasis

On PMESI SofS Analysis

Increased Emphasis

On Predicting Behaviors

FUNCTIONS SUPPORTED BY EBO

FUNCTIONS SUPPORTED BY DATA FUSION

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Working Together

JBI

FusionEBO

EBO RequestsActionable Information

JBI Finds What’sKnown and TasksGeneration of New

Information

Fusion Engines & Fuselets Generate NewInformation & Pass to EBO

While the IPB process is sequential, it is also continuous and cyclical.

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Combat

Campaign

2. Operations &AnticipatedResponses

Plan

Predicted Effects

Observed Effects

Combat

Campaign

3. ActualOperations(Target Set /

Target / DMPILevel)

4. ActualResponses

(COG/Target SystemLevel)

Assess1. DesiredBehavior

(COG/TS Level)

EBO Macro Model

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Semantic Network

Approach to Modeling EBO

Size = Importance of NEV to National LeadershipThickness = Importance of Connection to other NEV

1

2

3

4

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1. Leadership, 2. Industry, 3. Armed Forces, 4. Population, 5. Transportation, 6. Communications, 7. Alliances

StrategyObjectives

Resources

COG Analysis

Mechanism

StrategyObjectives

Resources

TGT Analysis

Mechanism

StrategyObjectives

Resources

TGT Analysis

Mechanism

COA

COA

COA

COA

COA

Objective

Tasks

Missions

Fig. 7: Modified JP 3-56.1 Campaign Planning Model

JP 3-56.1 Campaign Planning Model

Barlow’s “National Elements of Value” Model McCrabb’s “Enemy Reactions” Model

”Target"”Target"

Internal Model&

Library

Internal Model&

Library

Sensory Boundary

Adaptation Space

Input Process Output Outcome

InterveningVariables

Could

Should

Can

COGsLeadershipSystem EssentialsInfrastructurePopulationForces

LeadershipSystem EssentialsInfrastructurePopulationForces


Infrastructure’s COGs

The System Essentials of Infrastructure’s COGs

Warden’s “Enemy As A System” ModelTarget Systems

Target Sets

Effects Based Operations (DTO IS.71)

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Campaign Model

StrategyObjectives

Resources

COG Analysis

Mechanism

StrategyObjectives

Resources

TGT Analysis

Mechanism

StrategyObjectives

Resources

TGT Analysis

Mechanism

COA

COA

COA

COA

COA

Campaign/Objectives

Force/Tasks

Mission/Activities

Combat Assessment

Campaign Assessment

Modified from JP 3-56.1

Stage I: OER (IPB)

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Barlow’s NEVs

Stage III: COG Identification

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COGsLeadershipSystem EssentialsInfrastructurePopulationForces



Infrastructure’s COGs

The System Essentials of Infrastructure’s COGs

Warden’s “Rings” (Stage III)

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AgentAgent

Internal Model&

Library

Internal Model&

Library

Sensory Boundary

Adaptation Space

Input Process Output Outcome

InterveningVariables

McCrabb’s Agent Adaptation Space(Stage I-V)

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The (Almost) Complete Puzzle(Stage I-V)

Commander’s IntentObjectives/

Desired Effects(Stage II)

IPB Tools& Processes

EBO/DTTT&Ps

Enemy COA vs.Friendly COA

(Stage IV)

COA Selected

Branch

Branch

Stage V

Wargaming

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Effects-Based Planning

Identify PotentialStrategic COGs

Identify LinkedOperational Systems

Identify “Targets”Identify SpecificDesired Effects

Generate COA

Modified from Dave Deptula’s “Firing for Effect”

Supports JP 3-56.1 Stages II-V

Everything Starts from Commander’s Intent….

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Cause (Mechanism) Events

Tasks

Conditions (End-States)

Indicators

Results (Effects)

Actions (Direct and/or Indirect)

=

=

Strategy (Ways, How): A Plan of Actions (Tasks) that employ resources (means, with)

To accomplish Ends (What)

What

Why

How + With, Who, Where, When

= COA

Effects & Operational Art

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Cause (Mechanism) Events

Tasks

Conditions (End-States)

Indicators(MeasuresOf Success)

Results (Effects)

Actions (Direct and/or Indirect)

=

=

What

Why

How + With, Who, Where, When

= COA

Planning (Stage V)

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Direct Effects Indirect Effects

Direct Actions Previous Effects

Cause

Complex Effects Cascading Effects

Cause

Other & Previous Actions

Effect Achieved

Effect Desired?Yes

No

Problem? Opportunity?

Re-Plan

Execution & Assessment

Indicators

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Adversarial Models

Display Solutions

Model Components,

Links, Processing to Validate

Improved Information

Representations & Multimodal

Displays

Improved Information

Representations & Multimodal

Displays

Selection of Application Area

Selection of Application Area

IntegrationIntegration

Requirements for Optimal Design & Employment of DF-based DAs

Requirements for Optimal Design & Employment of DF-based DAs

Prototype Development

& Tests

Prototype Development

& Tests

Characteristics of Improved Human

Performance

Characteristics of Improved Human

Performance

Dependencies & Vulnerabilities of

Human Aiding SystemPotential

Countermeasures

Dependencies & Vulnerabilities of

Human Aiding SystemPotential

Countermeasures

Characterization of Application

Environment

Characterization of Application

Environment

Research Specifications

Research Specifications

Necessary Characteristics for

Investigations

Dependencies & Vulnerabilities

Needing Support

Candidate DisplaysCharacteristics of

the Systems Improved Understanding of

Cultural Differences &

Effects

Improved Understanding of

Cultural Differences &

Effects

Applications of Human-in-the-Loop

Investigations

Applications of Human-in-the-Loop

Investigations

Vulnerable Process Components

MOPs

Theoretical Understanding to Support Displays

Characterizations of Human

Dependencies & Vulnerabilities

Advanced Models of Complex, Dynamic Decision Making in

AADM/IO Environment

Advanced Models of Complex, Dynamic Decision Making in

AADM/IO Environment

Measures of Validation

Candidate Displays MOPs

Enhanced Operational Understanding to Improve Subsequent Design

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Effects

Physicaldamage

(Enemy’s Available Military Worth)

Resolve ofEnemy’s

population

Enemy’s Will(Leadership)

Enemy MilitaryCR’s, CV’s & CC’s

Enemy Political Resolve

Enemy Military

Will

Nationalinfrastructure

EnemyCoalition

Unity

Enemy Regional andInternational

Support

Limited Occurrences ofCollateral Damage

Compoundingenvironmental factors

Each vector needs aconsistent scale or

traceable relationship

Big Picture

• EBO ATD seeks an integrated set of strategy, wargaming, COG analysis, and campaign assessment tools.

• Doctrinally sound; not dogmatically rigid

• Support EBO planning & assessment plus objectives-based or targets-based assessment

• Major Theater War => Humanitarian Relief; lethal & nonlethal; kinetic & non-kinetic (e.g., Info Ops)

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EBO Toolkit of the Futurefor Dynamic Tasking

Campaign Planning& Assessment

Execution Planning

Combat Execution & Assessment

Strategy Development:- COA Develop- COG Analysis- Templates

Targeting(JTT)

Wargaming

MIDB

AssetPairing

AssetSourcing

AODB

Target Set Analysis

ISR Assistant

CampaignAssessment

Blue COAs

Indicators

EIPB

Commander’s Intent

Blue COAs

Combat Assessment:Advanced Sensor Fusion

Observations

* Reference AFRL/AC2ISRC CONOPSfor Effects-Based Operations

DynamicAerospaceExecution

Order

SpecialInstructions

ExecutingUnits

OperationsController

OffensiveController

DefensiveController

TACSController

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EBO Key Products

• Strategy Development Tool

– produces blue COAs

– tightly integrates effects, center of

gravity/target system analysis & strategy

identification

– cross center of gravity interactions

– strategy & mission templates

• Campaign Assessment Tool

– predicts the probability of achieving

Commander’s intent for a blue COA

– model plan’s cause/effects relations

for a given campaign over time

– tradeoff analysis/drill down capability

Campaign Assessment Tool

Objectives Determination andCOG & Target Systems AnalysisObjectives Determination andCOG & Target Systems Analysis

Strategy Development Tool

Blue COA Probability of BlueCOA success

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Strategy Development Tool Overview

File Edit Tools Templates Missions Show Help

Legend

Objective

Effect

EffectIndicator

Task

Task/Activity

Mechanism


(Deny Access)

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Campaign Assessment Tool Overview

Build A Causal Model Compile to aBayes Net Analyze Results


(Deny Access)

Red Decides to Terminate Hostilities

Red Decides to negotiate

Red Decides to use WMD

Probability ProfilesGMUGeorge Mason University

Blue Actions

Lead To

Influence Net

EXECUTABLE MODEL

COAs(actions/ times)

Indicator

IndicatorRed

Decisions

EBO Approach to Homeland DefenseEBO Approach to Homeland Defense

Military Action

DiplomacyFinancial

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SDT:ATD vs. Objective System

Anticipated Capabilities

• Limited coverage of strategies, JFC/JFACC missions; Limited IW

• Limited COG/TS analysis; no Mission Analysis/Situation Development

• No COA analysis/comparison capability

• No JAOP development support past COA option development

• No CS (e.g., Logistics, Mobility), TACS, or Space considerations/Risk Analysis

Required Capabilities

• Covers all strategy options

• Covers all JFC missions (e.g., HUMRO, PK/PE, etc.)

• Covers all JFACC missions (e.g., CA, SA, CL, etc.)

• Incorporates lethal/nonlethal, kinetic/non-kinetic applications of force

• Supports Joint Air Estimate Process through JAOP development (JP 3-30)

• Supports JFACC Daily Guidance planning (JP 3-30)

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Anticipated Capabilities

• Outcome assessment at Force and Campaign levels

• Limited ability to incorporate evidence

• Complete drilldown, predictive and reconstructive assessment

• Value-of-information ISO collection management and branch planning

Required Capabilities

• Predictive assessment ISO COA development

• Assessment of outcomes ISO Engagement, Battle, Force and Campaign execution

• Reconstructive assessment of outcomes ISO plan refinement

• Incorporation of all-source information

• Drilldown to action, causes, and mechanism level

CAT:ATD vs. Objective System

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Summary

• Definitional issue only a start

– No approved dictionary let alone glossary or encyclopedia

• Ontology common to all applications

– A common task but a common ontology server

– Basis for library

• Not just EBO: IPB (Fusion), JBI, IW, TUT, TST, etc.

• Shared language essential to shared understanding

– Shared understanding alone insufficient

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Operation ALLIED FORCE

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Operation Allied Force EBO Example (1)(from DOD AAR)

Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions(total Desired Effect)

Air Attacks(Military Effect)

Russian Diplomacy(Diplomatic Effect)

Sanctions, etc.(Economic Effect)

Kosovar Albanian Attacks(Military Effect)

Buildup of NATO Ground Power(Military-Diplomatic Effect)

Solidarity of NATO(Diplomatic Effect)

Expanded on Next Slide

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Operation Allied Force EBO Example (2) (from DOD AAR)


Air Attacks on Strategic Targets

Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets

Air Attacks on National C2 Targets

Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets

Expanded on Next Slide

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Operation Allied Force EBO Example (3) (from DOD AAR)


Degraded National C2

Attacks on Infrastructure(e.g., bridges)

Attacks on Electrical Power(e.g., plants)

Degraded Abilityto C2 FRY Forces

Degraded Abilityto Resupply Forces

Desired MilitaryEffects

PhysicalActions

Degraded IADS

Attack Serbian AF(e.g., aircraft, airbases)

Avoid Serbian SHORAD(e.g., fly above)

Freedom to Attack

Desired PoliticalEffects

1 Effects-based Operations: An Overview Dr. Maris “Buster” McCrabb (757) 508-8735...

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