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Dr. Florence EidChief EconomistArabia Monitor

Outline

• Going global: A boon for MENA from rise of emerging giants

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• A Framework for MENA: Where is the region headed?

• Re-stacking the cards: MENA investment heat-map

Reform on the back of a revolution

Constitutional Monarchies in the making Top-down gradual reform

Unknown outcomes

Sub-optimal Democracies

5 Political Country Groupings Define MENA

Political map of the Arab World today

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Outline

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• A Framework for MENA: Where is the region headed?

• Re-stacking the cards: MENA investment heat-map

3 Economic Groupings Define MENA1

Re-stacking the cards: Interest in MENA has not ebbed

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1 Arabia Monitor; IMF. *Libya figure from negative base conditional on oil exports resuming in 2014, could be revised down.

Morocco 3.8% Algeria

3.7%

Tunisia 3.7%

Libya 25.5%* Egypt

2.8%

Lebanon 1.5%

Jordan3%

Syria … Iraq

6.3%

KSA 4.4%

Kuwait 2.6%

Yemen 3.4%

Oman3.4%

UAE3.9%

Qatar5%

Bahrain 3.3%

In TransitionEmerging Developed

Developed Developing Reconstruction

14015.3

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Figure 1 - Planned Infrastructure Investments (USD B)1

Sizing up the infrastructure opportunity: 3 market types

1 Arabia Monitor; National Development Plans. Figures only approximate estimations based on proposed allocations.Algeria (2009-2014); Libya (2013-2023); Egypt (current PPP projects planned); Iraq (2010-2014); Saudi Arabia (2011-2014); Kuwait (2010-2020); Qatar (2013-2018); UAE (2008-2016); Oman (2011-2015). 2 Arabia Monitor; IMF.

Figure 2 – North Africa Forecasted Total Investment (% GDP)2

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Infrastructure spend per capita through 2018 (USD)1

Investment pipeline outpacing EMs

1 Arabia Monitor; Goldman Sachs: “Building the World”, World Bank.

Outline

• Going global: A boon for MENA from rise of emerging giants

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• A Framework for MENA: Where is the region headed?

• Re-stacking the cards: MENA investment heat-map

Exposure to Europe: Disproportionate in North Africa…

1 Arabia Monitor; Eurostat.

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MENA Exports to EU (% total)1

Red: Misc. Manufactured Goods Green: Agricultural ProductsBlue: Textile Products

From ASEAN

Arabia Monitor; DOTS; UNCTAD.The GCC imports its food, machinery and clothing.GCC textile imports from ASEAN: ~USD 1.1B; Maghreb textile exports to EU: ~USD 5B; Maghreb textile exports to GCC: negligible.GCC global food imports: ~USD 25B. Maghreb food exports to EU: ~USD 3B. Maghreb food exports to GCC: negligible.

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Much of what the GCC imports is what NA exports to Europe

1 Arabia Monitor, International Telecommunications Union

A fillip from China’s voracious appetite?

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1 Arabia Monitor; UNCTAD.

Figure 1 – China Total Food Imports (USD B)1 Figure 2 – Tunisia & Morocco Food Exports1

Leveraging sub-Saharan Africa’s growth

1 Arabia Monitor; Dubai Chamber of Commerce; EIU, “Africa Global Business Forum 2013”.

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UAE/SSA main bilateral trade and investment1

About Arabia Monitor

Arabia Monitor is an independent research firm specializing in economic and market studies on the Middle East & North African region, which we view as the new emerging market. Our forward looking perspective allows us to place recent developments in the region within a broader context and a long-term view. Our analysis is based on the macroeconomic and financial balance sheet of Arab countries to deliver unique strategy insights and forecasts to businesses across a wide range of sectors.

Arabia Advisors specialises in portfolio strategy and private placements. It works with firms, family offices and government related organisations that are looking to streamline, re-balance or diversify their asset portfolios. Based in the UAE as an off-shore company, Arabia Advisors services a regional and international client base with interest in the Arab countries.

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